Hypothesis testing is an indispensable tool to answer scientific questions in the context of clinical trials, bioinformatics, social sciences, etc. The data within such domains often involves sensitive and private information pertaining to individuals. Researchers often bear legal obligations to safeguard the privacy of such data. In this context, differential privacy (Dwork, 2006) has emerged as a compelling framework for ensuring privacy in statistical analyses with confidential data. Consequently, differentially private versions of numerous well-established hypothesis tests have been developed, although exclusively from a frequentist view point. This encompasses private adaptations of test of binomial proportions (Awan and Slavković, 2018), linear regression (Alabi and Vadhan, 2023), goodness of fit (Kwak et al., 2021), analysis of variance (Swanberg et al., 2019), high-dimensional normal means (Narayanan, 2022), to name a few. Differentially private versions of common non-parametric tests (Couch et al., 2019), permutation tests (Kim and Schrab, 2023), etc., have emerged as

While large language models (LLMs) are extremely capable at text generation, their outputs are still distinguishable from human-authored text. We explore this separation across many metrics over text, many sampling techniques, many types of text data, and across two popular LLMs, LLaMA and Vicuna. Along the way, we introduce a new metric, recoverability, to highlight differences between human and machine text; and we propose a new sampling technique, burst sampling, designed to close this gap. We find that LLaMA and Vicuna have distinct distributions under many of the metrics, and that this influences our results: Recoverability separates real from fake text better than any other metric when using LLaMA. When using Vicuna, burst sampling produces text which is distributionally closer to real text compared to other sampling techniques.

Acquiring an accurate world model online for model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is challenging due to data nonstationarity, which typically causes catastrophic forgetting for neural networks (NNs). From the online learning perspective, a Follow-The-Leader (FTL) world model is desirable, which optimally fits all previous experiences at each round. Unfortunately, NN-based models need re-training on all accumulated data at every interaction step to achieve FTL, which is computationally expensive for lifelong agents. In this paper, we revisit models that can achieve FTL with incremental updates. Specifically, our world model is a linear regression model supported by nonlinear random features. The linear part ensures efficient FTL update while the nonlinear random feature empowers the fitting of complex environments. To best trade off model capacity and computation efficiency, we introduce a locality sensitive sparse encoding, which allows us to conduct efficient sparse updates even with very high dimensional nonlinear features. We validate the representation power of our encoding and verify that it allows efficient online learning under data covariate shift. We also show, in the Dyna MBRL setting, that our world models learned online using a single pass of trajectory data either surpass or match the performance of deep world models trained with replay and other continual learning methods.

We explore a novel methodology for constructing confidence regions for parameters of linear models, using predictions from any arbitrary predictor. Our framework requires minimal assumptions on the noise and can be extended to functions deviating from strict linearity up to some adjustable threshold, thereby accommodating a comprehensive and pragmatically relevant set of functions. The derived confidence regions can be cast as constraints within a Mixed Integer Linear Programming framework, enabling optimisation of linear objectives. This representation enables robust optimization and the extraction of confidence intervals for specific parameter coordinates. Unlike previous methods, the confidence region can be empty, which can be used for hypothesis testing. Finally, we validate the empirical applicability of our method on synthetic data.

We propose a novel approach to nonlinear functional regression, called the Mapping-to-Parameter function model, which addresses complex and nonlinear functional regression problems in parameter space by employing any supervised learning technique. Central to this model is the mapping of function data from an infinite-dimensional function space to a finite-dimensional parameter space. This is accomplished by concurrently approximating multiple functions with a common set of B-spline basis functions by any chosen order, with their knot distribution determined by the Iterative Local Placement Algorithm, a newly proposed free knot placement algorithm. In contrast to the conventional equidistant knot placement strategy that uniformly distributes knot locations based on a predefined number of knots, our proposed algorithms determine knot location according to the local complexity of the input or output functions. The performance of our knot placement algorithms is shown to be robust in both single-function approximation and multiple-function approximation contexts. Furthermore, the effectiveness and advantage of the proposed prediction model in handling both function-on-scalar regression and function-on-function regression problems are demonstrated through several real data applications, in comparison with four groups of state-of-the-art methods.

Disaggregated evaluation is a central task in AI fairness assessment, with the goal to measure an AI system's performance across different subgroups defined by combinations of demographic or other sensitive attributes. The standard approach is to stratify the evaluation data across subgroups and compute performance metrics separately for each group. However, even for moderately-sized evaluation datasets, sample sizes quickly get small once considering intersectional subgroups, which greatly limits the extent to which intersectional groups are considered in many disaggregated evaluations. In this work, we introduce a structured regression approach to disaggregated evaluation that we demonstrate can yield reliable system performance estimates even for very small subgroups. We also provide corresponding inference strategies for constructing confidence intervals and explore how goodness-of-fit testing can yield insight into the structure of fairness-related harms experienced by intersectional groups. We evaluate our approach on two publicly available datasets, and several variants of semi-synthetic data. The results show that our method is considerably more accurate than the standard approach, especially for small subgroups, and goodness-of-fit testing helps identify the key factors that drive differences in performance.

Despite the rapid development of machine learning algorithms for domain generalization (DG), there is no clear empirical evidence that the existing DG algorithms outperform the classic empirical risk minimization (ERM) across standard benchmarks. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigate whether there are benefits of DG algorithms over ERM through the lens of label noise. Specifically, our finite-sample analysis reveals that label noise exacerbates the effect of spurious correlations for ERM, undermining generalization. Conversely, we illustrate that DG algorithms exhibit implicit label-noise robustness during finite-sample training even when spurious correlation is present. Such desirable property helps mitigate spurious correlations and improve generalization in synthetic experiments. However, additional comprehensive experiments on real-world benchmark datasets indicate that label-noise robustness does not necessarily translate to better performance compared to ERM. We conjecture that the failure mode of ERM arising from spurious correlations may be less pronounced in practice.

The task of predicting conversion rates (CVR) lies at the heart of online advertising systems aiming to optimize bids to meet advertiser performance requirements. Even with the recent rise of deep neural networks, these predictions are often made by factorization machines (FM), especially in commercial settings where inference latency is key. These models are trained using the logistic regression framework on labeled tabular data formed from past user activity that is relevant to the task at hand. Many advertisers only care about click-attributed conversions. A major challenge in training models that predict conversions-given-clicks comes from data sparsity - clicks are rare, conversions attributed to clicks are even rarer. However, mitigating sparsity by adding conversions that are not click-attributed to the training set impairs model calibration. Since calibration is critical to achieving advertiser goals, this is infeasible. In this work we use the well-known idea of self-supervised pre-training, and use an auxiliary auto-encoder model trained on all conversion events, both click-attributed and not, as a feature extractor to enrich the main CVR prediction model. Since the main model does not train on non click-attributed conversions, this does not impair calibration. We adapt the basic self-supervised pre-training idea to our online advertising setup by using a loss function designed for tabular data, facilitating continual learning by ensuring auto-encoder stability, and incorporating a neural network into a large-scale real-time ad auction that ranks tens of thousands of ads, under strict latency constraints, and without incurring a major engineering cost. We show improvements both offline, during training, and in an online A/B test. Following its success in A/B tests, our solution is now fully deployed to the Yahoo native advertising system.

A system of differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) is a combination of differential equations and algebraic equations, in which the differential equations are related to the dynamical evolution of the system, and the algebraic equations are responsible for constraining the solutions that satisfy the differential and algebraic equations. DAEs serve as essential models for a wide array of physical phenomena. They find applications across various domains such as mechanical systems, electrical circuit simulations, chemical process modeling, dynamic system control, biological simulations, and control systems. Consequently, solving these intricate differential equations has remained a significant challenge for researchers. To address this, a range of techniques including numerical, analytical, and semi-analytical methods have been employed to tackle the complexities inherent in solving DAEs.

Wind power generated by wind has non-schedule nature due to stochastic nature of meteorological variable. Hence energy business and control of wind power generation requires prediction of wind speed (WS) from few seconds to different time steps in advance. To deal with prediction shortcomings, various WS prediction methods have been used. Predictive data mining offers variety of methods for WS predictions where artificial neural network (ANN) is one of the reliable and accurate methods. It is observed from the result of this study that ANN gives better accuracy in comparison conventional model. The accuracy of WS prediction models is found to be dependent on input parameters and architecture type algorithms utilized. So the selection of most relevant input parameters is important research area in WS predicton field. The objective of the paper is twofold: first extensive review of ANN for wind power and WS prediction is carried out. Discussion and analysis of feature selection using Relief Algorithm (RA) in WS prediction are considered for different Indian sites. RA identify atmospheric pressure, solar radiation and relative humidity are relevant input variables. Based on relevant input variables Cascade ANN model is developed and prediction accuracy is evaluated. It is found that root mean square error (RMSE) for comparison between predicted and measured WS for training and testing wind speed are found to be 1.44 m/s and 1.49 m/s respectively. The developed cascade ANN model can be used to predict wind speed for sites where there are not WS measuring instruments are installed in India.