In this paper we propose an $\ell_1$-regularized GLS estimator for high-dimensional regressions with potentially autocorrelated errors. We establish non-asymptotic oracle inequalities for estimation accuracy in a framework that allows for highly persistent autoregressive errors. In practice, the Whitening matrix required to implement the GLS is unkown, we present a feasible estimator for this matrix, derive consistency results and ultimately show how our proposed feasible GLS can recover closely the optimal performance (as if the errors were a white noise) of the LASSO. A simulation study verifies the performance of the proposed method, demonstrating that the penalized (feasible) GLS-LASSO estimator performs on par with the LASSO in the case of white noise errors, whilst outperforming it in terms of sign-recovery and estimation error when the errors exhibit significant correlation.

We consider the problem of estimating an unknown function f* and its partial derivatives from a noisy data set of n observations, where we make no assumptions about f* except that it is smooth in the sense that it has square integrable partial derivatives of order m. A natural candidate for the estimator of f* in such a case is the best fit to the data set that satisfies a certain smoothness condition. This estimator can be seen as a least squares estimator subject to an upper bound on some measure of smoothness. Another useful estimator is the one that minimizes the degree of smoothness subject to an upper bound on the average of squared errors. We prove that these two estimators are computable as solutions to quadratic programs, establish the consistency of these estimators and their partial derivatives, and study the convergence rate as n increases to infinity. The effectiveness of the estimators is illustrated numerically in a setting where the value of a stock option and its second derivative are estimated as functions of the underlying stock price.

As machine learning models are increasingly deployed in dynamic environments, it becomes paramount to assess and quantify uncertainties associated with distribution shifts. A distribution shift occurs when the underlying data-generating process changes, leading to a deviation in the model's performance. The prediction interval, which captures the range of likely outcomes for a given prediction, serves as a crucial tool for characterizing uncertainties induced by their underlying distribution. In this paper, we propose methodologies for aggregating prediction intervals to obtain one with minimal width and adequate coverage on the target domain under unsupervised domain shift, under which we have labeled samples from a related source domain and unlabeled covariates from the target domain. Our analysis encompasses scenarios where the source and the target domain are related via i) a bounded density ratio, and ii) a measure-preserving transformation. Our proposed methodologies are computationally efficient and easy to implement. Beyond illustrating the performance of our method through a real-world dataset, we also delve into the theoretical details. This includes establishing rigorous theoretical guarantees, coupled with finite sample bounds, regarding the coverage and width of our prediction intervals. Our approach excels in practical applications and is underpinned by a solid theoretical framework, ensuring its reliability and effectiveness across diverse contexts.

Recent advances in experimental methods have enabled researchers to collect data on thousands of analytes simultaneously. This has led to correlational studies that associated molecular measurements with diseases such as Alzheimer's, Liver, and Gastric Cancer. However, the use of thousands of biomarkers selected from the analytes is not practical for real-world medical diagnosis and is likely undesirable due to potentially formed spurious correlations. In this study, we evaluate 4 different methods for biomarker selection and 4 different machine learning (ML) classifiers for identifying correlations - evaluating 16 approaches in all. We found that contemporary methods outperform previously reported logistic regression in cases where 3 and 10 biomarkers are permitted. When specificity is fixed at 0.9, ML approaches produced a sensitivity of 0.240 (3 biomarkers) and 0.520 (10 biomarkers), while standard logistic regression provided a sensitivity of 0.000 (3 biomarkers) and 0.040 (10 biomarkers). We also noted that causal-based methods for biomarker selection proved to be the most performant when fewer biomarkers were permitted, while univariate feature selection was the most performant when a greater number of biomarkers were permitted.

A fundamental problem in supervised learning is to find a good set of features or distance measures. If the new set of features is of lower dimensionality and can be obtained by a simple transformation of the original data, they can make the model understandable, reduce overfitting, and even help to detect distribution drift. We propose a supervised dimensionality reduction method Gradient Boosting Mapping (GBMAP), where the outputs of weak learners -- defined as one-layer perceptrons -- define the embedding. We show that the embedding coordinates provide better features for the supervised learning task, making simple linear models competitive with the state-of-the-art regressors and classifiers. We also use the embedding to find a principled distance measure between points. The features and distance measures automatically ignore directions irrelevant to the supervised learning task. We also show that we can reliably detect out-of-distribution data points with potentially large regression or classification errors. GBMAP is fast and works in seconds for dataset of million data points or hundreds of features. As a bonus, GBMAP provides a regression and classification performance comparable to the state-of-the-art supervised learning methods.

With the rise of Large Language Models (LLMs), the novel metric "Brainscore" emerged as a means to evaluate the functional similarity between LLMs and human brain/neural systems. Our efforts were dedicated to mining the meaning of the novel score by constructing topological features derived from both human fMRI data involving 190 subjects, and 39 LLMs plus their untrained counterparts. Subsequently, we trained 36 Linear Regression Models and conducted thorough statistical analyses to discern reliable and valid features from our constructed ones. Our findings reveal distinctive feature combinations conducive to interpreting existing brainscores across various brain regions of interest (ROIs) and hemispheres, thereby significantly contributing to advancing interpretable machine learning (iML) studies. The study is enriched by our further discussions and analyses concerning existing brainscores. To our knowledge, this study represents the first attempt to comprehend the novel metric brainscore within this interdisciplinary domain.

We develop fast and scalable algorithms based on block-coordinate descent to solve the group lasso and the group elastic net for generalized linear models along a regularization path. Special attention is given when the loss is the usual least squares loss (Gaussian loss). We show that each block-coordinate update can be solved efficiently using Newton's method and further improved using an adaptive bisection method, solving these updates with a quadratic convergence rate. Our benchmarks show that our package adelie performs 3 to 10 times faster than the next fastest package on a wide array of both simulated and real datasets. Moreover, we demonstrate that our package is a competitive lasso solver as well, matching the performance of the popular lasso package glmnet.

Evaluating house prices is crucial for various stakeholders, including homeowners, investors, and policymakers. However, traditional spatial interpolation methods have limitations in capturing the complex spatial relationships that affect property values. To address these challenges, we have developed a new method called Multi-Head Gated Attention for spatial interpolation. Our approach builds upon attention-based interpolation models and incorporates multiple attention heads and gating mechanisms to capture spatial dependencies and contextual information better. Importantly, our model produces embeddings that reduce the dimensionality of the data, enabling simpler models like linear regression to outperform complex ensembling models. We conducted extensive experiments to compare our model with baseline methods and the original attention-based interpolation model. The results show a significant improvement in the accuracy of house price predictions, validating the effectiveness of our approach. This research advances the field of spatial interpolation and provides a robust tool for more precise house price evaluation. Our GitHub repository.contains the data and code for all datasets, which are available for researchers and practitioners interested in replicating or building upon our work.

Deep neural networks (DNN) has received increasing attention in machine learning applications in the last several years. Recently, a non-asymptotic error bound has been developed to measure the performance of the fully connected DNN estimator with ReLU activation functions for estimating regression models. The paper at hand gives a small improvement on the current error bound based on the latest results on the approximation ability of DNN. More importantly, however, a non-random subsampling technique--scalable subsampling--is applied to construct a `subagged' DNN estimator. Under regularity conditions, it is shown that the subagged DNN estimator is computationally efficient without sacrificing accuracy for either estimation or prediction tasks. Beyond point estimation/prediction, we propose different approaches to build confidence and prediction intervals based on the subagged DNN estimator. In addition to being asymptotically valid, the proposed confidence/prediction intervals appear to work well in finite samples. All in all, the scalable subsampling DNN estimator offers the complete package in terms of statistical inference, i.e., (a) computational efficiency; (b) point estimation/prediction accuracy; and (c) allowing for the construction of practically useful confidence and prediction intervals.

It is quite popular nowadays for researchers and data analysts holding different datasets to seek assistance from each other to enhance their modeling performance. We consider a scenario where different learners hold datasets with potentially distinct variables, and their observations can be aligned by a nonprivate identifier. Their collaboration faces the following difficulties: First, learners may need to keep data values or even variable names undisclosed due to, e.g., commercial interest or privacy regulations; second, there are restrictions on the number of transmission rounds between them due to e.g., communication costs. To address these challenges, we develop a two-stage assisted learning architecture for an agent, Alice, to seek assistance from another agent, Bob. In the first stage, we propose a privacy-aware hypothesis testing-based screening method for Alice to decide on the usefulness of the data from Bob, in a way that only requires Bob to transmit sketchy data. Once Alice recognizes Bob's usefulness, Alice and Bob move to the second stage, where they jointly apply a synergistic iterative model training procedure. With limited transmissions of summary statistics, we show that Alice can achieve the oracle performance as if the training were from centralized data, both theoretically and numerically.