Accurate damage prediction is crucial for disaster preparedness and response strategies, particularly given the frequent earthquakes in Turkey. Utilizing datasets on earthquake data, infrastructural quality metrics, and contemporary socioeconomic factors, we tested various machine-learning architectures to forecast death tolls and fatalities per affected population. Our findings indicate that the Random Forest model provides the most reliable predictions. The model highlights earthquake magnitude and building stability as the primary determinants of damage. This research contributes to the reduction of fatalities in future seismic events in Turkey.

Our work aims to minimize interaction in secure computation due to the high cost and challenges associated with communication rounds, particularly in scenarios with many clients. In this work, we revisit the problem of secure aggregation in the single-server setting where a single evaluation server can securely aggregate client-held individual inputs. Our key contribution is the introduction of One-shot Private Aggregation ($\mathsf{OPA}$) where clients speak only once (or even choose not to speak) per aggregation evaluation. Since each client communicates only once per aggregation, this simplifies managing dropouts and dynamic participation, contrasting with multi-round protocols and aligning with plaintext secure aggregation, where clients interact only once. We construct $\mathsf{OPA}$ based on LWR, LWE, class groups, DCR and demonstrate applications to privacy-preserving Federated Learning (FL) where clients \emph{speak once}. This is a sharp departure from prior multi-round FL protocols whose study was initiated by Bonawitz et al. (CCS, 2017). Moreover, unlike the YOSO (You Only Speak Once) model for general secure computation, $\mathsf{OPA}$ eliminates complex committee selection protocols to achieve adaptive security. Beyond asymptotic improvements, $\mathsf{OPA}$ is practical, outperforming state-of-the-art solutions. We benchmark logistic regression classifiers for two datasets, while also building an MLP classifier to train on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100 datasets. We build two flavors of $\caps$ (1) from (threshold) key homomorphic PRF and (2) from seed homomorphic PRG and secret sharing.

Symbolic Regression remains an NP-Hard problem, with extensive research focusing on AI models for this task. Transformer models have shown promise in Symbolic Regression, but performance suffers with smaller datasets. We propose applying k-fold cross-validation to a transformer-based symbolic regression model trained on a significantly reduced dataset (15,000 data points, down from 500,000). This technique partitions the training data into multiple subsets (folds), iteratively training on some while validating on others. Our aim is to provide an estimate of model generalization and mitigate overfitting issues associated with smaller datasets. Results show that this process improves the model's output consistency and generalization by a relative improvement in validation loss of 53.31%. Potentially enabling more efficient and accessible symbolic regression in resource-constrained environments.

Synthesizing high-quality tabular data is an important topic in many data science tasks, ranging from dataset augmentation to privacy protection. However, developing expressive generative models for tabular data is challenging due to its inherent heterogeneous data types, complex inter-correlations, and intricate column-wise distributions. Our key innovation is the development of a joint continuous-time diffusion process for numerical and categorical data, where we propose feature-wise learnable diffusion processes to counter the high disparity of different feature distributions. We further introduce a multi-modal stochastic sampler to automatically correct the accumulated decoding error during sampling, and propose classifier-free guidance for conditional missing column value imputation. Code is available at https://github.com/MinkaiXu/TabDiff. Tabular data is ubiquitous in various databases, and developing effective generative models for it is a fundamental problem in many data processing and analysis tasks, ranging from training data augmentation (Fonseca & Bacao, 2023), data privacy protection (Assefa et al., 2021; Hernandez et al., 2022), to missing value imputation (You et al., 2020; Zheng & Charoenphakdee, 2022). With versatile synthetic tabular data that share the same format and statistical properties as the existing dataset, we are able to completely replace real data in a workflow or supplement the data to enhance its utility, which makes it easier to share and use. The capability of anonymizing data and enlarging sample size without compromising the overall data quality enables it to revolutionize the field of data science.

I consider inference in a partially linear regression model under stationary $\beta$-mixing data after first stage deep neural network (DNN) estimation. Using the DNN results of Brown (2024), I show that the estimator for the finite dimensional parameter, constructed using DNN-estimated nuisance components, achieves $\sqrt{n}$-consistency and asymptotic normality. By avoiding sample splitting, I address one of the key challenges in applying machine learning techniques to econometric models with dependent data. In a future version of this work, I plan to extend these results to obtain general conditions for semiparametric inference after DNN estimation of nuisance components, which will allow for considerations such as more efficient estimation procedures, and instrumental variable settings.

We revisit the sequential variants of linear regression with the squared loss, classification problems with hinge loss, and logistic regression, all characterized by unbounded losses in the setup where no assumptions are made on the magnitude of design vectors and the norm of the optimal vector of parameters. The key distinction from existing results lies in our assumption that the set of design vectors is known in advance (though their order is not), a setup sometimes referred to as transductive online learning. While this assumption seems similar to fixed design regression or denoising, we demonstrate that the sequential nature of our algorithms allows us to convert our bounds into statistical ones with random design without making any additional assumptions about the distribution of the design vectors--an impossibility for standard denoising results. Our key tools are based on the exponential weights algorithm with carefully chosen transductive (design-dependent) priors, which exploit the full horizon of the design vectors. Our classification regret bounds have a feature that is only attributed to bounded losses in the literature: they depend solely on the dimension of the parameter space and on the number of rounds, independent of the design vectors or the norm of the optimal solution. For linear regression with squared loss, we further extend our analysis to the sparse case, providing sparsity regret bounds that additionally depend on the magnitude of the response variables. We argue that these improved bounds are specific to the transductive setting and unattainable in the worst-case sequential setup. Our algorithms, in several cases, have polynomial time approximations and reduce to sampling with respect to log-concave measures instead of aggregating over hard-to-construct $\varepsilon$-covers of classes.

The intriguing in-context learning (ICL) abilities of deep Transformer models have lately garnered significant attention. By studying in-context linear regression on unimodal Gaussian data, recent empirical and theoretical works have argued that ICL emerges from Transformers' abilities to simulate learning algorithms like gradient descent. However, these works fail to capture the remarkable ability of Transformers to learn multiple tasks in context. To this end, we study in-context learning for linear regression with diverse tasks, characterized by data covariance matrices with condition numbers ranging from $[1, \kappa]$, and highlight the importance of depth in this setting. More specifically, (a) we show theoretical lower bounds of $\log(\kappa)$ (or $\sqrt{\kappa}$) linear attention layers in the unrestricted (or restricted) attention setting and, (b) we show that multilayer Transformers can indeed solve such tasks with a number of layers that matches the lower bounds. However, we show that this expressivity of multilayer Transformer comes at the price of robustness. In particular, multilayer Transformers are not robust to even distributional shifts as small as $O(e^{-L})$ in Wasserstein distance, where $L$ is the depth of the network. We then demonstrate that Looped Transformers -- a special class of multilayer Transformers with weight-sharing -- not only exhibit similar expressive power but are also provably robust under mild assumptions. Besides out-of-distribution generalization, we also show that Looped Transformers are the only models that exhibit a monotonic behavior of loss with respect to depth.

There has been a surge of interest in leveraging speech as a marker of health for a wide spectrum of conditions. The underlying premise is that any neurological, mental, or physical deficits that impact speech production can be objectively assessed via automated analysis of speech. Recent advances in speech-based Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for diagnosing and tracking mental health, cognitive, and motor disorders often use supervised learning, similar to mainstream speech technologies like recognition and verification. However, clinical speech AI has distinct challenges, including the need for specific elicitation tasks, small available datasets, diverse speech representations, and uncertain diagnostic labels. As a result, application of the standard supervised learning paradigm may lead to models that perform well in controlled settings but fail to generalize in real-world clinical deployments. With translation into real-world clinical scenarios in mind, this tutorial paper provides an overview of the key components required for robust development of clinical speech AI. Specifically, this paper will cover the design of speech elicitation tasks and protocols most appropriate for different clinical conditions, collection of data and verification of hardware, development and validation of speech representations designed to measure clinical constructs of interest, development of reliable and robust clinical prediction models, and ethical and participant considerations for clinical speech AI. The goal is to provide comprehensive guidance on building models whose inputs and outputs link to the more interpretable and clinically meaningful aspects of speech, that can be interrogated and clinically validated on clinical datasets, and that adhere to ethical, privacy, and security considerations by design.

The sports betting industry has experienced rapid growth, driven largely by technological advancements and the proliferation of online platforms. Machine learning (ML) has played a pivotal role in the transformation of this sector by enabling more accurate predictions, dynamic odds-setting, and enhanced risk management for both bookmakers and bettors. This systematic review explores various ML techniques, including support vector machines, random forests, and neural networks, as applied in different sports such as soccer, basketball, tennis, and cricket. These models utilize historical data, in-game statistics, and real-time information to optimize betting strategies and identify value bets, ultimately improving profitability. For bookmakers, ML facilitates dynamic odds adjustment and effective risk management, while bettors leverage data-driven insights to exploit market inefficiencies. This review also underscores the role of ML in fraud detection, where anomaly detection models are used to identify suspicious betting patterns. Despite these advancements, challenges such as data quality, real-time decision-making, and the inherent unpredictability of sports outcomes remain. Ethical concerns related to transparency and fairness are also of significant importance. Future research should focus on developing adaptive models that integrate multimodal data and manage risk in a manner akin to financial portfolios. This review provides a comprehensive examination of the current applications of ML in sports betting, and highlights both the potential and the limitations of these technologies.

Survival prediction often involves estimating the time-to-event distribution from censored datasets. Previous approaches have focused on enhancing discrimination and marginal calibration. In this paper, we highlight the significance of conditional calibration for real-world applications -- especially its role in individual decision-making. We propose a method based on conformal prediction that uses the model's predicted individual survival probability at that instance's observed time. This method effectively improves the model's marginal and conditional calibration, without compromising discrimination. We provide asymptotic theoretical guarantees for both marginal and conditional calibration and test it extensively across 15 diverse real-world datasets, demonstrating the method's practical effectiveness and versatility in various settings.