Causal machine learning (ML) methods hold great promise for advancing precision medicine by estimating personalized treatment effects. However, their reliability remains largely unvalidated in empirical settings. In this study, we assessed the internal and external validity of 17 mainstream causal heterogeneity ML methods -- including metalearners, tree-based methods, and deep learning methods -- using data from two large randomized controlled trials: the International Stroke Trial (N=19,435) and the Chinese Acute Stroke Trial (N=21,106). Our findings reveal that none of the ML methods reliably validated their performance, neither internal nor external, showing significant discrepancies between training and test data on the proposed evaluation metrics. The individualized treatment effects estimated from training data failed to generalize to the test data, even in the absence of distribution shifts. These results raise concerns about the current applicability of causal ML models in precision medicine, and highlight the need for more robust validation techniques to ensure generalizability.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are non-parametric probabilistic regression models that are popular due to their flexibility, data efficiency, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, standard GP models assume homoskedastic Gaussian noise, while many real-world applications are subject to non-Gaussian corruptions. Variants of GPs that are more robust to alternative noise models have been proposed, and entail significant trade-offs between accuracy and robustness, and between computational requirements and theoretical guarantees. In this work, we propose and study a GP model that achieves robustness against sparse outliers by inferring data-point-specific noise levels with a sequential selection procedure maximizing the log marginal likelihood that we refer to as relevance pursuit. We show, surprisingly, that the model can be parameterized such that the associated log marginal likelihood is strongly concave in the data-point-specific noise variances, a property rarely found in either robust regression objectives or GP marginal likelihoods. This in turn implies the weak submodularity of the corresponding subset selection problem, and thereby proves approximation guarantees for the proposed algorithm. We compare the model's performance relative to other approaches on diverse regression and Bayesian optimization tasks, including the challenging but common setting of sparse corruptions of the labels within or close to the function range.

Approximate Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (ALO-CV) is a method that has been proposed to estimate the generalization error of a regularized estimator in the high-dimensional regime where dimension and sample size are of the same order, the so called ``proportional regime''. A new analysis is developed to derive the consistency of ALO-CV for non-differentiable regularizer under Gaussian covariates and strong-convexity of the regularizer. Using a conditioning argument, the difference between the ALO-CV weights and their counterparts in mean-field inference is shown to be small. Combined with upper bounds between the mean-field inference estimate and the leave-one-out quantity, this provides a proof that ALO-CV approximates the leave-one-out quantity as well up to negligible error terms. Linear models with square loss, robust linear regression and single-index models are explicitly treated.

Mean texture depth (MTD) is pivotal in assessing the skid resistance of asphalt pavements and ensuring road safety. This study focuses on developing an automated system for extracting texture features and evaluating MTD based on pavement images. The contributions of this work are threefold: firstly, it proposes an economical method to acquire three-dimensional (3D) pavement texture data; secondly, it enhances 3D image processing techniques and formulates features that represent various aspects of texture; thirdly, it establishes multivariate prediction models that link these features with MTD values. Validation results demonstrate that the Gradient Boosting Tree (GBT) model achieves remarkable prediction stability and accuracy (R2 = 0.9858), and field tests indicate the superiority of the proposed method over other techniques, with relative errors below 10%. This method offers a comprehensive end-to-end solution for pavement quality evaluation, from images input to MTD predictions output.

This study investigates transformer model compression by systematically pruning its layers. We evaluated 14 pruning strategies across nine diverse datasets, including 12 strategies based on different signals obtained from layer activations, mutual information, gradients, weights, and attention. To address the limitations of single-signal strategies, we introduced two fusion strategies, linear regression and random forest, which combine individual strategies (i.e., strategic fusion), for more informed pruning decisions. Additionally, we applied knowledge distillation to mitigate any accuracy loss during layer pruning. Our results reveal that random forest strategic fusion outperforms individual strategies in seven out of nine datasets and achieves near-optimal performance in the other two. The distilled random forest surpasses the original accuracy in six datasets and mitigates accuracy drops in the remaining three. Knowledge distillation also improves the accuracy-to-size ratio by an average factor of 18.84 across all datasets. Supported by mathematical foundations and biological analogies, our findings suggest that strategically combining multiple signals can lead to efficient, high-performing transformer models for resource-constrained applications.

Meteorological factors (MF) are crucial in day-ahead load forecasting as they significantly influence the electricity consumption behaviors of consumers. Numerous studies have incorporated MF into the load forecasting model to achieve higher accuracy. Selecting MF from one representative location or the averaged MF as the inputs of the forecasting model is a common practice. However, the difference in MF collected in various locations within a region may be significant, which poses a challenge in selecting the appropriate MF from numerous locations. A representation learning framework is proposed to extract geo-distributed MF while considering their spatial relationships. In addition, this paper employs the Shapley value in the graph-based model to reveal connections between MF collected in different locations and loads. To reduce the computational complexity of calculating the Shapley value, an acceleration method is adopted based on Monte Carlo sampling and weighted linear regression. Experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method improves the day-ahead forecasting accuracy, especially in extreme scenarios such as the "accumulation temperature effect" in summer and "sudden temperature change" in winter. We also find a significant correlation between the importance of MF in different locations and the corresponding area's GDP and mainstay industry.

The generalized lasso is a natural generalization of the celebrated lasso approach to handle structural regularization problems. Many important methods and applications fall into this framework, including fused lasso, clustered lasso, and constrained lasso. To elevate its effectiveness in large-scale problems, extensive research has been conducted on the computational strategies of generalized lasso. However, to our knowledge, most studies are under the linear setup, with limited advances in non-Gaussian and non-linear models. We propose a majorization-minimization dual stagewise (MM-DUST) algorithm to efficiently trace out the full solution paths of the generalized lasso problem. The majorization technique is incorporated to handle different convex loss functions through their quadratic majorizers. Utilizing the connection between primal and dual problems and the idea of ``slow-brewing'' from stagewise learning, the minimization step is carried out in the dual space through a sequence of simple coordinate-wise updates on the dual coefficients with a small step size. Consequently, selecting an appropriate step size enables a trade-off between statistical accuracy and computational efficiency. We analyze the computational complexity of MM-DUST and establish the uniform convergence of the approximated solution paths. Extensive simulation studies and applications with regularized logistic regression and Cox model demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

The Transformation-Interaction-Rational is a representation for symbolic regression that limits the search space of functions to the ratio of two nonlinear functions each one defined as the linear regression of transformed variables. This representation has the main objective to bias the search towards simpler expressions while keeping the approximation power of standard approaches. The performance of using Genetic Programming with this representation was substantially better than with its predecessor (Interaction-Transformation) and ranked close to the state-of-the-art on a contemporary Symbolic Regression benchmark. On a closer look at these results, we observed that the performance could be further improved with an additional selective pressure for smaller expressions when the dataset contains just a few data points. The introduction of a penalization term applied to the fitness measure improved the results on these smaller datasets. One problem with this approach is that it introduces two additional hyperparameters: i) a criteria to when the penalization should be activated and, ii) the amount of penalization to the fitness function. In this paper, we extend Transformation-Interaction-Rational to support multi-objective optimization, specifically the NSGA-II algorithm, and apply that to the same benchmark. A detailed analysis of the results show that the use of multi-objective optimization benefits the overall performance on a subset of the benchmarks while keeping the results similar to the single-objective approach on the remainder of the datasets. Specifically to the small datasets, we observe a small (and statistically insignificant) improvement of the results suggesting that further strategies must be explored.

With the integration of an additional modality, large vision-language models (LVLMs) exhibit greater vulnerability to safety risks (e.g., jailbreaking) compared to their language-only predecessors. Although recent studies have devoted considerable effort to the post-hoc alignment of LVLMs, the inner safety mechanisms remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we discover that internal activations of LVLMs during the first token generation can effectively identify malicious prompts across different attacks. This inherent safety perception is governed by sparse attention heads, which we term ``safety heads." Further analysis reveals that these heads act as specialized shields against malicious prompts; ablating them leads to higher attack success rates, while the model's utility remains unaffected. By locating these safety heads and concatenating their activations, we construct a straightforward but powerful malicious prompt detector that integrates seamlessly into the generation process with minimal extra inference overhead. Despite its simple structure of a logistic regression model, the detector surprisingly exhibits strong zero-shot generalization capabilities. Experiments across various prompt-based attacks confirm the effectiveness of leveraging safety heads to protect LVLMs. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/Ziwei-Zheng/SAHs}.

Balancing predictive power and interpretability has long been a challenging research area, particularly in powerful yet complex models like neural networks, where nonlinearity obstructs direct interpretation. This paper introduces a novel approach to constructing an explainable neural network that harmonizes predictiveness and explainability. Our model, termed SparXnet, is designed as a linear combination of a sparse set of jointly learned features, each derived from a different trainable function applied to a single 1-dimensional input feature. Leveraging the ability to learn arbitrarily complex relationships, our neural network architecture enables automatic selection of a sparse set of important features, with the final prediction being a linear combination of rescaled versions of these features. We demonstrate the ability to select significant features while maintaining comparable predictive performance and direct interpretability through extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets. We also provide theoretical analysis on the generalization bounds of our framework, which is favorably linear in the number of selected features and only logarithmic in the number of input features. We further lift any dependence of sample complexity on the number of parameters or the architectural details under very mild conditions. Our research paves the way for further research on sparse and explainable neural networks with guarantee.