Regression
EVA-S2PLoR: A Secure Element-wise Multiplication Meets Logistic Regression on Heterogeneous Database
Tao, Tianle, Peng, Shizhao, Mei, Tianyu, Li, Shoumo, Zhu, Haogang
Accurate nonlinear computation is a key challenge in privacy-preserving machine learning (PPML). Most existing frameworks approximate it through linear operations, resulting in significant precision loss. This paper proposes an efficient, verifiable and accurate security 2-party logistic regression framework (EVA-S2PLoR), which achieves accurate nonlinear function computation through a novel secure element-wise multiplication protocol and its derived protocols. Our framework primarily includes secure 2-party vector element-wise multiplication, addition to multiplication, reciprocal, and sigmoid function based on data disguising technology, where high efficiency and accuracy are guaranteed by the simple computation flow based on the real number domain and the few number of fixed communication rounds. We provide secure and robust anomaly detection through dimension transformation and Monte Carlo methods. EVA-S2PLoR outperforms many advanced frameworks in terms of precision (improving the performance of the sigmoid function by about 10 orders of magnitude compared to most frameworks) and delivers the best overall performance in secure logistic regression experiments.
Learning Spectral Methods by Transformers
He, Yihan, Cao, Yuan, Chen, Hong-Yu, Wu, Dennis, Fan, Jianqing, Liu, Han
Most modern LLMs use Transformers [30] as their backbones, which demonstrate significant advantages over many existing neural network models. Transformers achieve many state-of-the-art performances in learning tasks including natural language processing [33] and computer vision [18]. However, the underlying mechanism for the success of Transformers remains largely a mystery to theoretical researchers. It has been discussed in a line of recent works [2, 4, 15, 38] that, instead of learning simple prediction rules (such as a linear model) Transformers are capable of learning to perform learning algorithms that can automatically generate new prediction rules. For instance, when a new dataset is organized as the input of a Transformer, the model can automatically perform linear regression on this new dataset to produce a newly fitted linear model and make predictions accordingly. This idea of treating Transformers as "algorithm approximators" has provided insights into the power of large language models. However, these existing works only provide guarantees for the in-context supervised learning capacities of Transformers. It remains unclear whether Transformers are capable of handling unsupervised tasks as well.
Black-box optimization and quantum annealing for filtering out mislabeled training instances
Otsuka, Makoto, Kodama, Kento, Morita, Keisuke, Ohzeki, Masayuki
This study proposes an approach for removing mislabeled instances from contaminated training datasets by combining surrogate model-based black-box optimization (BBO) with postprocessing and quantum annealing. Mislabeled training instances, a common issue in real-world datasets, often degrade model generalization, necessitating robust and efficient noise-removal strategies. The proposed method evaluates filtered training subsets based on validation loss, iteratively refines loss estimates through surrogate model-based BBO with postprocessing, and leverages quantum annealing to efficiently sample diverse training subsets with low validation error. Experiments on a noisy majority bit task demonstrate the method's ability to prioritize the removal of high-risk mislabeled instances. Integrating D-Wave's clique sampler running on a physical quantum annealer achieves faster optimization and higher-quality training subsets compared to OpenJij's simulated quantum annealing sampler or Neal's simulated annealing sampler, offering a scalable framework for enhancing dataset quality. This work highlights the effectiveness of the proposed method for supervised learning tasks, with future directions including its application to unsupervised learning, real-world datasets, and large-scale implementations.
MEXA-CTP: Mode Experts Cross-Attention for Clinical Trial Outcome Prediction
Zhang, Yiqing, Liu, Xiaozhong, Murai, Fabricio
Clinical trials are the gold standard for assessing the effectiveness and safety of drugs for treating diseases. Given the vast design space of drug molecules, elevated financial cost, and multi-year timeline of these trials, research on clinical trial outcome prediction has gained immense traction. Accurate predictions must leverage data of diverse modes such as drug molecules, target diseases, and eligibility criteria to infer successes and failures. Previous Deep Learning approaches for this task, such as HINT, often require wet lab data from synthesized molecules and/or rely on prior knowledge to encode interactions as part of the model architecture. To address these limitations, we propose a light-weight attention-based model, MEXA-CTP, to integrate readily-available multi-modal data and generate effective representations via specialized modules dubbed "mode experts", while avoiding human biases in model design. We optimize MEXA-CTP with the Cauchy loss to capture relevant interactions across modes. Our experiments on the Trial Outcome Prediction (TOP) benchmark demonstrate that MEXA-CTP improves upon existing approaches by, respectively, up to 11.3% in F1 score, 12.2% in PR-AUC, and 2.5% in ROC-AUC, compared to HINT. Ablation studies are provided to quantify the effectiveness of each component in our proposed method.
Variable Selection Methods for Multivariate, Functional, and Complex Biomedical Data in the AI Age
Many problems within personalized medicine and digital health rely on the analysis of continuous-time functional biomarkers and other complex data structures emerging from high-resolution patient monitoring. In this context, this work proposes new optimization-based variable selection methods for multivariate, functional, and even more general outcomes in metrics spaces based on best-subset selection. Our framework applies to several types of regression models, including linear, quantile, or non parametric additive models, and to a broad range of random responses, such as univariate, multivariate Euclidean data, functional, and even random graphs. Our analysis demonstrates that our proposed methodology outperforms state-of-the-art methods in accuracy and, especially, in speed-achieving several orders of magnitude improvement over competitors across various type of statistical responses as the case of mathematical functions. While our framework is general and is not designed for a specific regression and scientific problem, the article is self-contained and focuses on biomedical applications. In the clinical areas, serves as a valuable resource for professionals in biostatistics, statistics, and artificial intelligence interested in variable selection problem in this new technological AI-era.
Do we actually understand the impact of renewables on electricity prices? A causal inference approach
Cacciarelli, Davide, Pinson, Pierre, Panagiotopoulos, Filip, Dixon, David, Blaxland, Lizzie
The energy transition is profoundly reshaping electricity market dynamics. It makes it essential to understand how renewable energy generation actually impacts electricity prices, among all other market drivers. These insights are critical to design policies and market interventions that ensure affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy systems. However, identifying causal effects from observational data is a major challenge, requiring innovative causal inference approaches that go beyond conventional regression analysis only. We build upon the state of the art by developing and applying a local partially linear double machine learning approach. Its application yields the first robust causal evidence on the distinct and non-linear effects of wind and solar power generation on UK wholesale electricity prices, revealing key insights that have eluded previous analyses. We find that, over 2018-2024, wind power generation has a U-shaped effect on prices: at low penetration levels, a 1 GWh increase in energy generation reduces prices by up to 7 GBP/MWh, but this effect gets close to none at mid-penetration levels (20-30%) before intensifying again. Solar power places substantial downward pressure on prices at very low penetration levels (up to 9 GBP/MWh per 1 GWh increase in energy generation), though its impact weakens quite rapidly. We also uncover a critical trend where the price-reducing effects of both wind and solar power have become more pronounced over time (from 2018 to 2024), highlighting their growing influence on electricity markets amid rising penetration. Our study provides both novel analysis approaches and actionable insights to guide policymakers in appraising the way renewables impact electricity markets.
Soft regression trees: a model variant and a decomposition training algorithm
Consolo, Antonio, Amaldi, Edoardo, Manno, Andrea
Decision trees are widely used for classification and regression tasks in a variety of application fields due to their interpretability and good accuracy. During the past decade, growing attention has been devoted to globally optimized decision trees with deterministic or soft splitting rules at branch nodes, which are trained by optimizing the error function over all the tree parameters. In this work, we propose a new variant of soft multivariate regression trees (SRTs) where, for every input vector, the prediction is defined as the linear regression associated to a single leaf node, namely, the leaf node obtained by routing the input vector from the root along the branches with higher probability. SRTs exhibit the conditional computational property, i.e., each prediction depends on a small number of nodes (parameters), and our nonlinear optimization formulation for training them is amenable to decomposition. After showing a universal approximation result for SRTs, we present a decomposition training algorithm including a clustering-based initialization procedure and a heuristic for reassigning the input vectors along the tree. Under mild assumptions, we establish asymptotic convergence guarantees. Experiments on 15 wellknown datasets indicate that our SRTs and decomposition algorithm yield higher accuracy and robustness compared with traditional soft regression trees trained using the nonlinear optimization formulation of Blanquero et al., and a significant reduction in training times as well as a slightly better average accuracy compared with the mixed-integer optimization approach of Bertsimas and Dunn. We also report a comparison with the Random Forest ensemble method.
rmlnomogram: An R package to construct an explainable nomogram for any machine learning algorithms
Sufriyana, Herdiantri, Su, Emily Chia-Yu
Background: Current nomogram can only be created for regression algorithm. Providing nomogram for any machine learning (ML) algorithms may accelerate model deployment in clinical settings or improve model availability. We developed an R package and web application to construct nomogram with model explainability of any ML algorithms. Methods: We formulated a function to transform an ML prediction model into a nomogram, requiring datasets with: (1) all possible combinations of predictor values; (2) the corresponding outputs of the model; and (3) the corresponding explainability values for each predictor (optional). Web application was also created. Results: Our R package could create 5 types of nomograms for categorical predictors and binary outcome without probability (1), categorical predictors and binary outcome with probability (2) or continuous outcome (3), and categorical with single numerical predictors and binary outcome with probability (4) or continuous outcome (5). Respectively, the first and remaining types optimally allowed maximum 15 and 5 predictors with maximum 3,200 combinations. Web application is provided with such limits. The explainability values were possible for types 2 to 5. Conclusions: Our R package and web application could construct nomogram with model explainability of any ML algorithms using a fair number of predictors.
A High-accuracy Calibration Method of Transient TSEPs for Power Semiconductor Devices
Zhang, Qinghao, Li, Wenrui, Zhang, Pinjia
The thermal sensitive electrical parameter (TSEP) method is crucial for enhancing the reliability of power devices through junction temperature monitoring. The TSEP method comprises three key processes: calibration, regression, and application. While significant efforts have been devoted to improving regression algorithms and increasing TSEP sensitivity to enhance junction temperature monitoring accuracy, these approaches have reached a bottleneck. In reality, the calibration method significantly influences monitoring accuracy, an aspect often overlooked in conventional TSEP methods. To address this issue, we propose a high-accuracy calibration method for transient TSEPs. First, a temperature compensation strategy based on thermal analysis is introduced to mitigate the temperature difference caused by load current during dual pulse tests. Second, the impact of stray parameters is analyzed to identify coupled parameters, which are typically neglected in existing methods. Third, it is observed that random errors follow a logarithm Gaussian distribution, covering a hidden variable. A neural network is used to obtain the junction temperature predictive model. The proposed calibration method is experimental validated in threshold voltage as an example. Compared with conventional calibration methods, the mean absolute error is reduced by over 30%. Moreover, this method does not require additional hardware cost and has good generalization.
Explainable AI based System for Supply Air Temperature Forecast
Eik, Marika, Kose, Ahmet, Hokmabad, Hossein Nourollahi, Belikov, Juri
This paper explores the application of Explainable AI (XAI) techniques to improve the transparency and understanding of predictive models in control of automated supply air temperature (ASAT) of Air Handling Unit (AHU). The study focuses on forecasting of ASAT using a linear regression with Huber loss. However, having only a control curve without semantic and/or physical explanation is often not enough. The present study employs one of the XAI methods: Shapley values, which allows to reveal the reasoning and highlight the contribution of each feature to the final ASAT forecast. In comparison to other XAI methods, Shapley values have solid mathematical background, resulting in interpretation transparency. The study demonstrates the contrastive explanations--slices, for each control value of ASAT, which makes it possible to give the client objective justifications for curve changes.