This paper enhances the Q-Iearning algorithm for optimal asset allocation proposedin (Neuneier, 1996 [6]). The new formulation simplifies the approach by using only one value-function for many assets and allows model-freepolicy-iteration. After testing the new algorithm on real data, the possibility of risk management within the framework of Markov decision problems is analyzed. The proposed methods allows the construction of a multi-period portfolio management system which takes into account transaction costs, the risk preferences of the investor, and several constraints on the allocation. 1 Introduction

This article describes a milestone in our research efforts toward the real robot competition in RoboCup. We participated in the middle-size league at RoboCup-97, held in conjunction with the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Nagoya, Japan. The most significant features of our team, TRACKIES, are the application of a reinforcement learning method enhanced for real robot applications and the use of an omnidirectional vision system for our goalie that can capture a 360-degree view at any instant in time. The method and the system used are shown with competition results.

In this article, we describe the milestone of our research efforts in our work for the RoboCup middle-size league competition. Reinforcement learning in applying it to real robot applications; we then give our method of coping with these has recently been receiving increased attention issues in the context of RoboCup. Finally, we as a method for robot learning with little or no show our system and the experimental results a priori knowledge and a higher capability for of RoboCup-97. The robot senses the current state First, we follow the explanation of Q-learning of the environment and selects an action. For a more thorough treatment, Based on the state and the action, the environment see Watkins and Dayan (1992).

Department of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 Abstract Dynamic Programming, Q-Iearning and other discrete Markov Decision Process solvers can be -applied to continuous d-dimensional state-spaces by quantizing the state space into an array of boxes. This is often problematic above two dimensions: a coarse quantization can lead to poor policies, and fine quantization is too expensive. Possible solutions are variable-resolution discretization, or function approximation by neural nets. A third option, which has been little studied in the reinforcement learning literature, is interpolation on a coarse grid. In this paper we study interpolation techniques that can result in vast improvements in the online behavior of the resulting control systems: multilinear interpolation, and an interpolation algorithm based on an interesting regular triangulation of d-dimensional space.

Closed-loop control relies on sensory feedback that is usually assumed to be free. But if sensing incurs a cost, it may be costeffective to take sequences of actions in open-loop mode. We describe a reinforcement learning algorithm that learns to combine open-loop and closed-loop control when sensing incurs a cost. Although we assume reliable sensors, use of open-loop control means that actions must sometimes be taken when the current state of the controlled system is uncertain. This is a special case of the hidden-state problem in reinforcement learning, and to cope, our algorithm relies on short-term memory. The main result of the paper is a rule that significantly limits exploration of possible memory states by pruning memory states for which the estimated value of information is greater than its cost. We prove that this rule allows convergence to an optimal policy.

We propose and analyze an algorithm that approximates solutions to the problem of optimal stopping in a discounted irreducible aperiodic Markov chain. The scheme involves the use of linear combinations of fixed basis functions to approximate a Q-function. The weights of the linear combination are incrementally updated through an iterative process similar to Q-Iearning, involving simulation of the underlying Markov chain. Due to space limitations, we only provide an overview of a proof of convergence (with probability 1) and bounds on the approximation error. This is the first theoretical result that establishes the soundness of a Q-Iearninglike algorithm when combined with arbitrary linear function approximators to solve a sequential decision problem.

We present new results about the temporal-difference learning algorithm, as applied to approximating the cost-to-go function of a Markov chain using linear function approximators. The algorithm we analyze performs online updating of a parameter vector during a single endless trajectory of an aperiodic irreducible finite state Markov chain. Results include convergence (with probability 1), a characterization of the limit of convergence, and a bound on the resulting approximation error. In addition to establishing new and stronger results than those previously available, our analysis is based on a new line of reasoning that provides new intuition about the dynamics of temporal-difference learning. Furthermore, we discuss the implications of two counterexamples with regards to the Significance of online updating and linearly parameterized function approximators. 1 INTRODUCTION The problem of predicting the expected long-term future cost (or reward) of a stochastic dynamic system manifests itself in both time-series prediction and control.

Policy iteration is known to have rapid and robust convergence properties, and for Markov tasks with lookup-table state-space representations, it is guaranteed to convergence to the optimal policy. Online Policy Improvement using Monte-Carlo Search 1069 In typical uses of policy iteration, the policy improvement step is an extensive off-line procedure. For example, in dynamic programming, one performs a sweep through all states in the state space. Reinforcement learning provides another approach to policy improvement; recently, several authors have investigated using RL in conjunction with nonlinear function approximators to represent the value functions and/or policies (Tesauro, 1992; Crites and Barto, 1996; Zhang and Dietterich, 1996). These studies are based on following actual state-space trajectories rather than sweeps through the full state space, but are still too slow to compute improved policies in real time.

Probability models can be used to predict outcomes and compensate for missing data, but even a perfect model cannot be used to make decisions unless the utility of the outcomes, or preferences between them, are also provided. This arises in many real-world problems, such as medical diagnosis, where the cost of the test as well as the expected improvement in the outcome must be considered. Relatively little work has been done on learning the utilities of outcomes for optimal decision making. In this paper, we show how temporal-difference reinforcement learning (TO(A» can be used to determine decision theoretic utilities within the context of a mixture model and apply this new approach to a problem in medical diagnosis. TO(A) learning of utilities reduces the number of tests that have to be done to achieve the same level of performance compared with the probability model alone, which results in significant cost savings and increased efficiency.

We have calculated analytical expressions for how the bias and variance of the estimators provided by various temporal difference value estimation algorithms change with offline updates over trials in absorbing Markov chains using lookup table representations. We illustrate classes of learning curve behavior in various chains, and show the manner in which TD is sensitive to the choice of its stepsize and eligibility trace parameters. 1 INTRODUCTION A reassuring theory of asymptotic convergence is available for many reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. What is not available, however, is a theory that explains the finite-term learning curve behavior of RL algorithms, e.g., what are the different kinds of learning curves, what are their key determinants, and how do different problem parameters effect rate of convergence. Answering these questions is crucial not only for making useful comparisons between algorithms, but also for developing hybrid and new RL methods. In this paper we provide preliminary answers to some of the above questions for the case of absorbing Markov chains, where mean square error between the estimated and true predictions is used as the quantity of interest in learning curves.