Joint replacement is the most common inpatient surgical treatment in the US. We investigate the clinical pathway optimization for knee replacement, which is a sequential decision process from onset to recovery. Based on episodic claims from previous cases, we view the pathway optimization as an intelligence crowdsourcing problem and learn the optimal decision policy from data by imitating the best expert at every intermediate state. We develop a reinforcement learning-based pipeline that uses value iteration, state compression and aggregation learning, kernel representation and cross validation to predict the best treatment policy. It also provides forecast of the clinical pathway under the optimized policy. Empirical validation shows that the optimized policy reduces the overall cost by 7 percent and reduces the excessive cost premium by 33 percent.

In a reinforcement learning approach, an optimal value function is learned across a set of actions, or decisions, that leads to a set of states giving different rewards, with the objective to maximize the overall reward. A policy assigns to each state-action pairs an expected return. We call an optimal policy a policy for which the value function is optimal. QLBS, Q-Learner in the Black-Scholes(-Merton) Worlds, applies the reinforcement learning concepts, and noticeably, the popular Q-learning algorithm, to the financial stochastic model described by Black, Scholes and Merton. However, QLBS is specifically optimized for the geometric Brownian motion and the pricing of vanilla options. Consequently, it suffers from the traditional over-estimation of the Q-values reflected by an over-estimation of the vanilla option prices. Furthermore, its range of application is limited to vanilla option pricing within the financial markets. We propose MQLV, Modified Q-Learner for the Vasicek model, a new reinforcement learning approach that limits the Q-values over-estimation observed in QLBS and extends the simulation to mean reverting stochastic diffusion processes. Additionally, MQLV uses a digital function to estimate the future probability of an event, thus widening the scope of the financial application to any other domain involving time series. Our experiments underline the potential of MQLV on generated Monte Carlo simulations, particularly representative of the retail banking time series. In particular, MQLV is able to determine the optimal policy of money management based on the aggregated financial transactions of the clients, unlocking new frontiers to establish personalized credit card limits or loans. Finally, MQLV is the first methodology compatible with the Vasicek model capable of an event probability estimation targeting simulation of event probabilities in retail banking.

Value function learning plays a central role in many state-of-the-art reinforcement-learning algorithms. Many popular algorithms like Q-learning do not optimize any objective function, but are fixed-point iterations of some variant of Bellman operator that is not necessarily a contraction. As a result, they may easily lose convergence guarantees, as can be observed in practice. In this paper, we propose a novel loss function, which can be optimized using standard gradient-based methods without risking divergence. The key advantage is that its gradient can be easily approximated using sampled transitions, avoiding the need for double samples required by prior algorithms like residual gradient. Our approach may be combined with general function classes such as neural networks, on either on- or off-policy data, and is shown to work reliably and effectively in several benchmarks.

Exploration bonuses derived from the novelty of observations in an environment have become a popular approach to motivate exploration for reinforcement learning (RL) agents in the past few years. Recent methods such as curiosity-driven exploration usually estimate the novelty of new observations by the prediction errors of their system dynamics models. In this paper, we introduce the concept of optical flow estimation from the field of computer vision to the RL domain and utilize the errors from optical flow estimation to evaluate the novelty of new observations. We introduce a flow-based intrinsic curiosity module (FICM) capable of learning the motion features and understanding the observations in a more comprehensive and efficient fashion. We evaluate our method and compare it with a number of baselines on several benchmark environments, including Atari games, Super Mario Bros., and ViZDoom. Our results show that the proposed method is superior to the baselines in certain environments, especially for those featuring sophisticated moving patterns or with high-dimensional observation spaces. We further analyze the hyper-parameters used in the training phase and discuss our insights into them.

Automated theorem proving in large theories can be learned via reinforcement learning over an indefinitely growing action space. In order to select actions, one performs nearest neighbor lookups in the knowledge base to find premises to be applied. Here we address the exploration for reinforcement learning in this space. Approaches (like epsilon-greedy strategy) that sample actions uniformly do not scale to this scenario as most actions lead to dead ends and unsuccessful proofs which are not useful for training our models. In this paper, we compare approaches that select premises using randomly initialized similarity measures and mixing them with the proposals of the learned model. We evaluate these on the HOList benchmark for tactics based higher order theorem proving. We implement an automated theorem prover named DeepHOL-Zero that does not use any of the human proofs and show that our improved exploration method manages to expand the training set continuously. DeepHOL-Zero outperforms the best theorem prover trained by imitation learning alone.

Temporal-difference learning (TD), coupled with neural networks, is among the most fundamental building blocks of deep reinforcement learning. However, due to the nonlinearity in value function approximation, such a coupling leads to nonconvexity and even divergence in optimization. As a result, the global convergence of neural TD remains unclear. In this paper, we prove for the first time that neural TD converges at a sublinear rate to the global optimum of the mean-squared projected Bellman error for policy evaluation. In particular, we show how such global convergence is enabled by the overparametrization of neural networks, which also plays a vital role in the empirical success of neural TD. Beyond policy evaluation, we establish the global convergence of neural (soft) Q-learning, which is further connected to that of policy gradient algorithms.

This course is going to show you a few different ways: including the powerful A2C (Advantage Actor-Critic) algorithm, the DDPG (Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient) algorithm, and evolution strategies. Evolution strategies is a new and fresh take on reinforcement learning, that kind of throws away all the old theory in favor of a more "black box" approach, inspired by biological evolution.

Search, analyze, and visualize big data on a cluster with Elasticsearch, Logstash, Beats, Kibana, and more. Elasticsearch 7 is a powerful tool not only for powering search on big websites, but also for analyzing big data sets in a matter of milliseconds! It's an increasingly popular technology, and a valuable skill to have in today's job market. This comprehensive course covers it all, from installation to operations, with over 90 lectures including 8 hours of video.

We identify a fundamental problem in policy gradient-based methods in continuous control. As policy gradient methods require the agent's underlying probability distribution, they limit policy representation to parametric distribution classes. We show that optimizing over such sets results in local movement in the action space and thus convergence to sub-optimal solutions. We suggest a novel distributional framework, able to represent arbitrary distribution functions over the continuous action space. Using this framework, we construct a generative scheme, trained using an off-policy actor-critic paradigm, which we call the Generative Actor Critic (GAC). Compared to policy gradient methods, GAC does not require knowledge of the underlying probability distribution, thereby overcoming these limitations. Empirical evaluation shows that our approach is comparable and often surpasses current state-of-the-art baselines in continuous domains.

Reinforcement learning is an appropriate and successful method to robustly perform low-level robot control under noisy conditions. Symbolic action planning is useful to resolve causal dependencies and to break a causally complex problem down into a sequence of simpler high-level actions. A problem with the integration of both approaches is that action planning is based on discrete high-level action- and state spaces, whereas reinforcement learning is usually driven by a continuous reward function. However, recent advances in reinforcement learning, specifically, universal value function approximators and hindsight experience replay, have focused on goal-independent methods based on sparse rewards. In this article, we build on these novel methods to facilitate the integration of action planning with reinforcement learning by exploiting the reward-sparsity as a bridge between the high-level and low-level state- and control spaces. As a result, we demonstrate that the integrated neuro-symbolic method is able to solve object manipulation problems that involve tool use and non-trivial causal dependencies under noisy conditions, exploiting both data and knowledge.