Strategy-optimization is a fundamental element of dynamic and complex team sports such as soccer, American football, and basketball. As the amount of data that is collected from matches in these sports has increased, so has the demand for data-driven decisionmaking support. If alternative strategies need to be balanced, a data-driven approach can uncover insights that are not available from qualitative analysis. This could tremendously aid teams in their match preparations. In this work, we propose a novel Markov modelbased framework for soccer that allows reasoning about the specific strategies teams use in order to gain insights into the efficiency of each strategy. The framework consists of two components: (1) a learning component, which entails modeling a team’s offensive behavior by learning a Markov decision process (MDP) from event data that is collected from the team’s matches, and (2) a reasoning component, which involves a novel application of probabilistic model checking to reason about the efficacy of the learned strategies of each team. In this paper, we provide an overview of this framework and illustrate it on several use cases using real-world event data from three leagues. Our results show that the framework can be used to reason about the shot decision-making of teams and to optimise the defensive strategies used when playing against a particular team. The general ideas presented in this framework can easily be extended to other sports.

Achieving the economical and stable operation of Multi-microgrids (MMG) systems is vital. However, there are still some challenging problems to be solved. Firstly, from the perspective of stable operation, it is necessary to minimize the energy fluctuation of the main grid. Secondly, the characteristics of energy conversion equipment need to be considered. Finally, privacy protection while reducing the operating cost of an MMG system is crucial. To address these challenges, a Data-driven strategy for MMG systems with Shared Energy Storage (SES) is proposed. The Mixed-Attention is applied to fit the conditions of the equipment, additionally, Multi-Agent Soft Actor-Critic(MA-SAC) and (Multi-Agent Win or Learn Fast Policy Hill-Climbing)MA-WoLF-PHC are proposed to solve the partially observable dynamic stochastic game problem. By testing the operation data of the MMG system in Northwest China, following conclusions are drawn: the R-Square (R2) values of results reach 0.999, indicating the neural network effectively models the nonlinear conditions. The proposed MMG system framework can reduce energy fluctuations in the main grid by 1746.5kW in 24 hours and achieve a cost reduction of 16.21% in the test. Finally, the superiority of the proposed algorithms is verified through their fast convergence speed and excellent optimization performance.

The reproducibility of many experimental results in Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) is under question. To solve this reproducibility crisis, we propose a theoretically sound methodology to compare multiple Deep RL algorithms. The performance of one execution of a Deep RL algorithm is random so that independent executions are needed to assess it precisely. When comparing several RL algorithms, a major question is how many executions must be made and how can we assure that the results of such a comparison is theoretically sound. Researchers in Deep RL often use less than 5 independent executions to compare algorithms: we claim that this is not enough in general. Moreover, when comparing several algorithms at once, the error of each comparison accumulates and must be taken into account with a multiple tests procedure to preserve low error guarantees. To address this problem in a statistically sound way, we introduce AdaStop, a new statistical test based on multiple group sequential tests. When comparing algorithms, AdaStop adapts the number of executions to stop as early as possible while ensuring that we have enough information to distinguish algorithms that perform better than the others in a statistical significant way. We prove both theoretically and empirically that AdaStop has a low probability of making an error (Family-Wise Error). Finally, we illustrate the effectiveness of AdaStop in multiple use-cases, including toy examples and difficult cases such as Mujoco environments.

This paper investigates the application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) for Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) financial portfolio management, with a specific focus on the potential benefits of ESG score-based market regulation. We leveraged an Advantage Actor-Critic (A2C) agent and conducted our experiments using environments encoded within the OpenAI Gym, adapted from the FinRL platform. The study includes a comparative analysis of DRL agent performance under standard Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) market conditions and a scenario where returns are regulated in line with company ESG scores. In the ESG-regulated market, grants were proportionally allotted to portfolios based on their returns and ESG scores, while taxes were assigned to portfolios below the mean ESG score of the index. The results intriguingly reveal that the DRL agent within the ESG-regulated market outperforms the standard DJIA market setup. Furthermore, we considered the inclusion of ESG variables in the agent state space, and compared this with scenarios where such data were excluded. This comparison adds to the understanding of the role of ESG factors in portfolio management decision-making. We also analyze the behaviour of the DRL agent in IBEX 35 and NASDAQ-100 indexes. Both the A2C and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithms were applied to these additional markets, providing a broader perspective on the generalization of our findings. This work contributes to the evolving field of ESG investing, suggesting that market regulation based on ESG scoring can potentially improve DRL-based portfolio management, with significant implications for sustainable investing strategies.

We focus on the problem of market making in high-frequency trading. Market making is a critical function in financial markets that involves providing liquidity by buying and selling assets. However, the increasing complexity of financial markets and the high volume of data generated by tick-level trading makes it challenging to develop effective market making strategies. To address this challenge, we propose a deep reinforcement learning approach that fuses tick-level data with periodic prediction signals to develop a more accurate and robust market making strategy. Our results of market making strategies based on different deep reinforcement learning algorithms under the simulation scenarios and real data experiments in the cryptocurrency markets show that the proposed framework outperforms existing methods in terms of profitability and risk management.

This work is about optimal order execution, where a large order is split into several small orders to maximize the implementation shortfall. Based on the diversity of cryptocurrency exchanges, we attempt to extract cross-exchange signals by aligning data from multiple exchanges for the first time. Unlike most previous studies that focused on using single-exchange information, we discuss the impact of cross-exchange signals on the agent's decision-making in the optimal execution problem. Experimental results show that cross-exchange signals can provide additional information for the optimal execution of cryptocurrency to facilitate the optimal execution process.

Warm-Start reinforcement learning (RL), aided by a prior policy obtained from offline training, is emerging as a promising RL approach for practical applications. Recent empirical studies have demonstrated that the performance of Warm-Start RL can be improved \textit{quickly} in some cases but become \textit{stagnant} in other cases, especially when the function approximation is used. To this end, the primary objective of this work is to build a fundamental understanding on ``\textit{whether and when online learning can be significantly accelerated by a warm-start policy from offline RL?}''. Specifically, we consider the widely used Actor-Critic (A-C) method with a prior policy. We first quantify the approximation errors in the Actor update and the Critic update, respectively. Next, we cast the Warm-Start A-C algorithm as Newton's method with perturbation, and study the impact of the approximation errors on the finite-time learning performance with inaccurate Actor/Critic updates. Under some general technical conditions, we derive the upper bounds, which shed light on achieving the desired finite-learning performance in the Warm-Start A-C algorithm. In particular, our findings reveal that it is essential to reduce the algorithm bias in online learning. We also obtain lower bounds on the sub-optimality gap of the Warm-Start A-C algorithm to quantify the impact of the bias and error propagation.

Inventory management offers unique opportunities for reliably evaluating and applying deep reinforcement learning (DRL). Rather than evaluate DRL algorithms by comparing against one another or against human experts, we can compare to the optimum itself in several problem classes with hidden structure. Our DRL methods consistently recover near-optimal policies in such settings, despite being applied with up to 600-dimensional raw state vectors. In others, they can vastly outperform problem-specific heuristics. To reliably apply DRL, we leverage two insights. First, one can directly optimize the hindsight performance of any policy using stochastic gradient descent. This uses (i) an ability to backtest any policy's performance on a subsample of historical demand observations, and (ii) the differentiability of the total cost incurred on any subsample with respect to policy parameters. Second, we propose a natural neural network architecture to address problems with weak (or aggregate) coupling constraints between locations in an inventory network. This architecture employs weight duplication for ``sibling'' locations in the network, and state summarization. We justify this architecture through an asymptotic guarantee, and empirically affirm its value in handling large-scale problems.

Nowadays, autonomous vehicles are gaining traction due to their numerous potential applications in resolving a variety of other real-world challenges. However, developing autonomous vehicles need huge amount of training and testing before deploying it to real world. While the field of reinforcement learning (RL) has evolved into a powerful learning framework to the development of deep representation learning, and it is now capable of learning complicated policies in high-dimensional environments like in autonomous vehicles. In this regard, we make an effort, using Deep Q-Learning, to discover a method by which an autonomous car may maintain its lane at top speed while avoiding other vehicles. After that, we used CARLA simulation environment to test and verify our newly acquired policy based on the problem formulation.

Discount regularization, using a shorter planning horizon when calculating the optimal policy, is a popular choice to restrict planning to a less complex set of policies when estimating an MDP from sparse or noisy data (Jiang et al., 2015). It is commonly understood that discount regularization functions by de-emphasizing or ignoring delayed effects. In this paper, we reveal an alternate view of discount regularization that exposes unintended consequences. We demonstrate that planning under a lower discount factor produces an identical optimal policy to planning using any prior on the transition matrix that has the same distribution for all states and actions. In fact, it functions like a prior with stronger regularization on state-action pairs with more transition data. This leads to poor performance when the transition matrix is estimated from data sets with uneven amounts of data across state-action pairs. Our equivalence theorem leads to an explicit formula to set regularization parameters locally for individual state-action pairs rather than globally. We demonstrate the failures of discount regularization and how we remedy them using our state-action-specific method across simple empirical examples as well as a medical cancer simulator.