In the realm of globalized financial markets, commercial banks are confronted with an escalating magnitude of credit risk, thereby imposing heightened requisites upon the security of bank assets and financial stability. This study harnesses advanced neural network techniques, notably the Backpropagation (BP) neural network, to pioneer a novel model for preempting credit risk in commercial banks. The discourse initially scrutinizes conventional financial risk preemptive models, such as ARMA, ARCH, and Logistic regression models, critically analyzing their real-world applications. Subsequently, the exposition elaborates on the construction process of the BP neural network model, encompassing network architecture design, activation function selection, parameter initialization, and objective function construction. Through comparative analysis, the superiority of neural network models in preempting credit risk in commercial banks is elucidated. The experimental segment selects specific bank data, validating the model's predictive accuracy and practicality. Research findings evince that this model efficaciously enhances the foresight and precision of credit risk management.

Center for Biocomputing and Digital Health, Institute of Computing and Cybersystems, and Health Research Institute, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931 # Anjum Shaik and Kristoffer Larsen contribute equally. Abstract Page ABSTRACT Hip fractures present a significant healthcare challenge, especially within aging populations, where they are often caused by falls. These fractures lead to substantial morbidity and mortality, emphasizing the need for timely surgical intervention. Despite advancements in medical care, hip fractures impose a significant burden on individuals and healthcare systems. This paper focuses on the prediction of hip fracture risk in older and middle-aged adults, where falls and compromised bone quality are predominant factors. We propose a novel staged model that combines advanced imaging and clinical data to improve predictive performance. By using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to extract features from hip DXA images, along with clinical variables, shape measurements, and texture features, our method provides a comprehensive framework for assessing fracture risk. The study cohort included 547 patients, with 94 experiencing hip fracture. A staged machine learning-based model was developed using two ensemble models: Ensemble 1 (clinical variables only) and Ensemble 2 (clinical variables and DXA imaging features). This staged approach used uncertainty quantification from Ensemble 1 to decide if DXA features are necessary for further prediction. Ensemble 2 exhibited the highest performance, achieving an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.9541, an accuracy of 0.9195, a sensitivity of 0.8078, and a specificity of 0.9427.

With the increasing use of Artificial Intelligence in Natural Language Processing, concerns have been raised regarding the detection of AI-generated text in various domains. This study aims to investigate this issue by proposing a methodology to accurately distinguish AI-generated and human-written book reviews. Our approach utilizes transfer learning, enabling the model to identify generated text across different topics while improving its ability to detect variations in writing style and vocabulary. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, we developed a dataset consisting of real book reviews and AI-generated reviews using the recently proposed Vicuna open-source language model. The experimental results demonstrate that it is feasible to detect the original source of text, achieving an accuracy rate of 96.86%. Our efforts are oriented toward the exploration of the capabilities and limitations of Large Language Models in the context of text identification. Expanding our knowledge in these aspects will be valuable for effectively navigating similar models in the future and ensuring the integrity and authenticity of human-generated content.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) can easily be cheated by some imperceptible but purposeful noise added to images, and erroneously classify them. Previous defensive work mostly focused on retraining the models or detecting the noise, but has either shown limited success rates or been attacked by new adversarial examples. Instead of focusing on adversarial images or the interior of DNN models, we observed that adversarial examples generated by different algorithms can be identified based on the output of DNNs (logits). Logit can serve as an exterior feature to train detectors. Then, we propose HOLMES (Hierarchically Organized Light-weight Multiple dEtector System) to reinforce DNNs by detecting potential adversarial examples to minimize the threats they may bring in practical. HOLMES is able to distinguish \textit{unseen} adversarial examples from multiple attacks with high accuracy and low false positive rates than single detector systems even in an adaptive model. To ensure the diversity and randomness of detectors in HOLMES, we use two methods: training dedicated detectors for each label and training detectors with top-k logits. Our effective and inexpensive strategies neither modify original DNN models nor require its internal parameters. HOLMES is not only compatible with all kinds of learning models (even only with external APIs), but also complementary to other defenses to achieve higher detection rates (may also fully protect the system against various adversarial examples).

Evaluating multiple-choice questions (MCQs) involves either labor intensive human assessments or automated methods that prioritize readability, often overlooking deeper question design flaws. To address this issue, we introduce the Scalable Automatic Question Usability Evaluation Toolkit (SAQUET), an open-source tool that leverages the Item-Writing Flaws (IWF) rubric for a comprehensive and automated quality evaluation of MCQs. By harnessing the latest in large language models such as GPT-4, advanced word embeddings, and Transformers designed to analyze textual complexity, SAQUET effectively pinpoints and assesses a wide array of flaws in MCQs. We first demonstrate the discrepancy between commonly used automated evaluation metrics and the human assessment of MCQ quality. Then we evaluate SAQUET on a diverse dataset of MCQs across the five domains of Chemistry, Statistics, Computer Science, Humanities, and Healthcare, showing how it effectively distinguishes between flawed and flawless questions, providing a level of analysis beyond what is achievable with traditional metrics. With an accuracy rate of over 94% in detecting the presence of flaws identified by human evaluators, our findings emphasize the limitations of existing evaluation methods and showcase potential in improving the quality of educational assessments.

Primary Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is a rare autoimmune disease characterised by immune-mediated destruction of peripheral blood platelets in patients leading to low platelet counts and bleeding. The diagnosis and effective management of ITP is challenging because there is no established test to confirm the disease and no biomarker with which one can predict the response to treatment and outcome. In this work we conduct a feasibility study to check if machine learning can be applied effectively for diagnosis of ITP using routine blood tests and demographic data in a non-acute outpatient setting. Various ML models, including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, k-Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree and Random Forest, were applied to data from the UK Adult ITP Registry and a general hematology clinic. Two different approaches were investigated: a demographic-unaware and a demographic-aware one. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate the predictive performance of these models and approaches, as well as their bias. The results revealed that Decision Tree and Random Forest models were both superior and fair, achieving nearly perfect predictive and fairness scores, with platelet count identified as the most significant variable. Models not provided with demographic information performed better in terms of predictive accuracy but showed lower fairness score, illustrating a trade-off between predictive performance and fairness.

Entity Matching (EM) is a critical task in numerous fields, such as healthcare, finance, and public administration, as it identifies records that refer to the same entity within or across different databases. EM faces considerable challenges, particularly with false positives and negatives. These are typically addressed by generating matching scores and apply thresholds to balance false positives and negatives in various contexts. However, adjusting these thresholds can affect the fairness of the outcomes, a critical factor that remains largely overlooked in current fair EM research. The existing body of research on fair EM tends to concentrate on static thresholds, neglecting their critical impact on fairness. To address this, we introduce a new approach in EM using recent metrics for evaluating biases in score based binary classification, particularly through the lens of distributional parity. This approach enables the application of various bias metrics like equalized odds, equal opportunity, and demographic parity without depending on threshold settings. Our experiments with leading matching methods reveal potential biases, and by applying a calibration technique for EM scores using Wasserstein barycenters, we not only mitigate these biases but also preserve accuracy across real world datasets. This paper contributes to the field of fairness in data cleaning, especially within EM, which is a central task in data cleaning, by promoting a method for generating matching scores that reduce biases across different thresholds.

The increasing popularity of machine learning (ML) in catalysis has spurred interest in leveraging these techniques to enhance catalyst design. Our study aims to bridge the gap between physics-based studies and data-driven methodologies by integrating ML techniques with eXplainable AI (XAI). Specifically, we employ two XAI techniques: Post-hoc XAI analysis and Symbolic Regression. These techniques help us unravel the correlation between adsorption energy and the properties of the adsorbate-catalyst system. Leveraging a large dataset such as the Open Catalyst Dataset (OC20), we employ a combination of shallow ML techniques and XAI methodologies. Our investigation involves utilizing multiple shallow machine learning techniques to predict adsorption energy, followed by post-hoc analysis for feature importance, inter-feature correlations, and the influence of various feature values on the prediction of adsorption energy. The post-hoc analysis reveals that adsorbate properties exert a greater influence than catalyst properties in our dataset. The top five features based on higher Shapley values are adsorbate electronegativity, the number of adsorbate atoms, catalyst electronegativity, effective coordination number, and the sum of atomic numbers of the adsorbate molecule. There is a positive correlation between catalyst and adsorbate electronegativity with the prediction of adsorption energy. Additionally, symbolic regression yields results consistent with SHAP analysis. It deduces a mathematical relationship indicating that the square of the catalyst electronegativity is directly proportional to the adsorption energy. These consistent correlations resemble those derived from physics-based equations in previous research. Our work establishes a robust framework that integrates ML techniques with XAI, leveraging large datasets like OC20 to enhance catalyst design through model explainability.

This paper introduced a clustered estimator of the Network Information Criterion (NICc) to approximate leave-one-cluster-out cross-validated deviance, which can be used as an alternative to cluster-based cross-validation when modeling clustered data. Stone proved that Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is an asymptotic equivalence to leave-one-observation-out cross-validation if the parametric model is true. Ripley pointed out that the Network Information Criterion (NIC) derived in Stone's proof, is a better approximation to leave-one-observation-out cross-validation when the model is not true. For clustered data, we derived a clustered estimator of NIC, referred to as NICc, by substituting the Fisher information matrix in NIC with its estimator that adjusts for clustering. This adjustment imposes a larger penalty in NICc than the unclustered estimator of NIC when modeling clustered data, thereby preventing overfitting more effectively. In a simulation study and an empirical example, we used linear and logistic regression to model clustered data with Gaussian or binomial response, respectively. We showed that NICc is a better approximation to leave-one-cluster-out deviance and prevents overfitting more effectively than AIC and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). NICc leads to more accurate model selection, as determined by cluster-based cross-validation, compared to AIC and BIC.

In many prediction problems, the predictive model affects the distribution of the prediction target. This phenomenon is known as performativity and is often caused by the behavior of individuals with vested interests in the outcome of the predictive model. Although performativity is generally problematic because it manifests as distribution shifts, we develop algorithmic fairness practices that leverage performativity to achieve stronger group fairness guarantees in social classification problems (compared to what is achievable in non-performative settings). In particular, we leverage the policymaker's ability to steer the population to remedy inequities in the long term. A crucial benefit of this approach is that it is possible to resolve the incompatibilities between conflicting group fairness definitions.