Performance Analysis
DelayPTC-LLM: Metro Passenger Travel Choice Prediction under Train Delays with Large Language Models
Chen, Chen, He, Yuxin, Wang, Hao, Chen, Jingjing, Luo, Qin
Accurately predicting passenger travel choices under train delays can provide interpretable insights into the redistribution of passenger flow, offering crucial decision support for emergency response and service recovery. However, the diversity of travel choices due to passenger heterogeneity and the sparsity of delay events leads to issues of data sparsity and sample imbalance in the travel choices dataset under metro delays. It is challenging to model this problem using traditional machine learning approaches, which typically rely on large, balanced datasets. Given the strengths of large language models (LLMs) in text processing, understanding, and their capabilities in small-sample and even zero-shot learning, this paper proposes a novel Passenger Travel Choice prediction framework under metro delays with the Large Language Model (DelayPTC-LLM). The well-designed prompting engineering is developed to guide the LLM in making and rationalizing predictions about travel choices, taking into account passenger heterogeneity and features of the delay events. Utilizing real-world data from Shenzhen Metro, including Automated Fare Collection (AFC) data and detailed delay logs, a comparative analysis of DelayPTC-LLM with traditional prediction models demonstrates the superior capability of LLMs in handling complex, sparse datasets commonly encountered under disruption of transportation systems. The results validate the advantages of DelayPTC-LLM in terms of predictive accuracy and its potential to provide actionable insights for big traffic data.
Differentially Private Non Parametric Copulas: Generating synthetic data with non parametric copulas under privacy guarantees
Osorio-Marulanda, Pablo A., Ramirez, John Esteban Castro, Jimรฉnez, Mikel Hernรกndez, Reyes, Nicolas Moreno, Unanue, Gorka Epelde
Creation of synthetic data models has represented a significant advancement across diverse scientific fields, but this technology also brings important privacy considerations for users. This work focuses on enhancing a non-parametric copula-based synthetic data generation model, DPNPC, by incorporating Differential Privacy through an Enhanced Fourier Perturbation method. The model generates synthetic data for mixed tabular databases while preserving privacy. We compare DPNPC with three other models (PrivBayes, DP-Copula, and DP-Histogram) across three public datasets, evaluating privacy, utility, and execution time. DPNPC outperforms others in modeling multivariate dependencies, maintaining privacy for small $\epsilon$ values, and reducing training times. However, limitations include the need to assess the model's performance with different encoding methods and consider additional privacy attacks. Future research should address these areas to enhance privacy-preserving synthetic data generation.
Multi-modal Medical Image Fusion For Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Classification
Hassan, Salma, Hammadi, Hamad Al, Mohammed, Ibrahim, Khan, Muhammad Haris
The early detection and nuanced subtype classification of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), a predominant cause of cancer mortality worldwide, is a critical and complex issue. In this paper, we introduce an innovative integration of multi-modal data, synthesizing fused medical imaging (CT and PET scans) with clinical health records and genomic data. This unique fusion methodology leverages advanced machine learning models, notably MedClip and BEiT, for sophisticated image feature extraction, setting a new standard in computational oncology. Our research surpasses existing approaches, as evidenced by a substantial enhancement in NSCLC detection and classification precision. The results showcase notable improvements across key performance metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. Specifically, our leading multi-modal classifier model records an impressive accuracy of 94.04%. We believe that our approach has the potential to transform NSCLC diagnostics, facilitating earlier detection and more effective treatment planning and, ultimately, leading to superior patient outcomes in lung cancer care.
Multi-Source Hard and Soft Information Fusion Approach for Accurate Cryptocurrency Price Movement Prediction
Dashtaki, Saeed Mohammadi, Chagahi, Mehdi Hosseini, Moshiri, Behzad, Piran, Md. Jalil
One of the most important challenges in the financial and cryptocurrency field is accurately predicting cryptocurrency price trends. Leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) is beneficial in addressing this challenge. Cryptocurrency markets, marked by substantial growth and volatility, attract investors and scholars keen on deciphering and forecasting cryptocurrency price movements. The vast and diverse array of data available for such predictions increases the complexity of the task. In our study, we introduce a novel approach termed hard and soft information fusion (HSIF) to enhance the accuracy of cryptocurrency price movement forecasts. The hard information component of our approach encompasses historical price records alongside technical indicators. Complementing this, the soft data component extracts from X (formerly Twitter), encompassing news headlines and tweets about the cryptocurrency. To use this data, we use the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)-based sentiment analysis method, financial BERT (FinBERT), which performs best. Finally, our model feeds on the information set including processed hard and soft data. We employ the bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model because processing information in both forward and backward directions can capture long-term dependencies in sequential information. Our empirical findings emphasize the superiority of the HSIF approach over models dependent on single-source data by testing on Bitcoin-related data. By fusing hard and soft information on Bitcoin dataset, our model has about 96.8\% accuracy in predicting price movement. Incorporating information enables our model to grasp the influence of social sentiment on price fluctuations, thereby supplementing the technical analysis-based predictions derived from hard information.
Fairness-aware Multiobjective Evolutionary Learning
Zhang, Qingquan, Liu, Jialin, Yao, Xin
Multiobjective evolutionary learning (MOEL) has demonstrated its advantages of training fairer machine learning models considering a predefined set of conflicting objectives, including accuracy and different fairness measures. Recent works propose to construct a representative subset of fairness measures as optimisation objectives of MOEL throughout model training. However, the determination of a representative measure set relies on dataset, prior knowledge and requires substantial computational costs. What's more, those representative measures may differ across different model training processes. Instead of using a static predefined set determined before model training, this paper proposes to dynamically and adaptively determine a representative measure set online during model training. The dynamically determined representative set is then used as optimising objectives of the MOEL framework and can vary with time. Extensive experimental results on 12 well-known benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed framework achieves outstanding performance compared to state-of-the-art approaches for mitigating unfairness in terms of accuracy as well as 25 fairness measures although only a few of them were dynamically selected and used as optimisation objectives. The results indicate the importance of setting optimisation objectives dynamically during training.
Reducing Overtreatment of Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules Using a Multimodal Deep Learning Model
Athreya, Shreeram, Melehy, Andrew, Suthahar, Sujit Silas Armstrong, Iveziฤ, Vedrana, Radhachandran, Ashwath, Sant, Vivek, Moleta, Chace, Zheng, Henry, Patel, Maitraya, Masamed, Rinat, Arnold, Corey W., Speier, William
Objective: Molecular testing (MT) classifies cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules as benign or malignant with high sensitivity but low positive predictive value (PPV), only using molecular profiles, ignoring ultrasound (US) imaging and biopsy. We address this limitation by applying attention multiple instance learning (AMIL) to US images. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 333 patients with indeterminate thyroid nodules at UCLA medical center (259 benign, 74 malignant). A multi-modal deep learning AMIL model was developed, combining US images and MT to classify the nodules as benign or malignant and enhance the malignancy risk stratification of MT. Results: The final AMIL model matched MT sensitivity (0.946) while significantly improving PPV (0.477 vs 0.448 for MT alone), indicating fewer false positives while maintaining high sensitivity. Conclusion: Our approach reduces false positives compared to MT while maintaining the same ability to identify positive cases, potentially reducing unnecessary benign thyroid resections in patients with indeterminate nodules.
Kinematic Detection of Anomalies in Human Trajectory Data
Kennedy, Lance, Zรผfle, Andreas
Historically, much of the research in understanding, modeling, and mining human trajectory data has focused on where an individual stays. Thus, the focus of existing research has been on where a user goes. On the other hand, the study of how a user moves between locations has great potential for new research opportunities. Kinematic features describe how an individual moves between locations and can be used for tasks such as identification of individuals or anomaly detection. Unfortunately, data availability and quality challenges make kinematic trajectory mining difficult. In this paper, we leverage the Geolife dataset of human trajectories to investigate the viability of using kinematic features to identify individuals and detect anomalies. We show that humans have an individual "kinematic profile" which can be used as a strong signal to identify individual humans. We experimentally show that, for the two use-cases of individual identification and anomaly detection, simple kinematic features fed to standard classification and anomaly detection algorithms significantly improve results.
A Survey on the Honesty of Large Language Models
Li, Siheng, Yang, Cheng, Wu, Taiqiang, Shi, Chufan, Zhang, Yuji, Zhu, Xinyu, Cheng, Zesen, Cai, Deng, Yu, Mo, Liu, Lemao, Zhou, Jie, Yang, Yujiu, Wong, Ngai, Wu, Xixin, Lam, Wai
Honesty is a fundamental principle for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values, requiring these models to recognize what they know and don't know and be able to faithfully express their knowledge. Despite promising, current LLMs still exhibit significant dishonest behaviors, such as confidently presenting wrong answers or failing to express what they know. In addition, research on the honesty of LLMs also faces challenges, including varying definitions of honesty, difficulties in distinguishing between known and unknown knowledge, and a lack of comprehensive understanding of related research. To address these issues, we provide a survey on the honesty of LLMs, covering its clarification, evaluation approaches, and strategies for improvement. Moreover, we offer insights for future research, aiming to inspire further exploration in this important area.
Towards Integrating Epistemic Uncertainty Estimation into the Radiotherapy Workflow
Teichmann, Marvin Tom, Datar, Manasi, Kratzke, Lisa, Vega, Fernando, Ghesu, Florin C.
The precision of contouring target structures and organs-at-risk (OAR) in radiotherapy planning is crucial for ensuring treatment efficacy and patient safety. Recent advancements in deep learning (DL) have significantly improved OAR contouring performance, yet the reliability of these models, especially in the presence of out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, remains a concern in clinical settings. This application study explores the integration of epistemic uncertainty estimation within the OAR contouring workflow to enable OOD detection in clinically relevant scenarios, using specifically compiled data. Furthermore, we introduce an advanced statistical method for OOD detection to enhance the methodological framework of uncertainty estimation. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that epistemic uncertainty estimation is effective in identifying instances where model predictions are unreliable and may require an expert review. Notably, our approach achieves an AUC-ROC of 0.95 for OOD detection, with a specificity of 0.95 and a sensitivity of 0.92 for implant cases, underscoring its efficacy. This study addresses significant gaps in the current research landscape, such as the lack of ground truth for uncertainty estimation and limited empirical evaluations. Additionally, it provides a clinically relevant application of epistemic uncertainty estimation in an FDA-approved and widely used clinical solution for OAR segmentation from Varian, a Siemens Healthineers company, highlighting its practical benefits.
Deep Heterogeneous Contrastive Hyper-Graph Learning for In-the-Wild Context-Aware Human Activity Recognition
Ge, Wen, Mou, Guanyi, Agu, Emmanuel O., Lee, Kyumin
Human Activity Recognition (HAR) is a challenging, multi-label classification problem as activities may co-occur and sensor signals corresponding to the same activity may vary in different contexts (e.g., different device placements). This paper proposes a Deep Heterogeneous Contrastive Hyper-Graph Learning (DHC-HGL) framework that captures heterogenous Context-Aware HAR (CA-HAR) hypergraph properties in a message-passing and neighborhood-aggregation fashion. Prior work only explored homogeneous or shallow-node-heterogeneous graphs. DHC-HGL handles heterogeneous CA-HAR data by innovatively 1) Constructing three different types of sub-hypergraphs that are each passed through different custom HyperGraph Convolution (HGC) layers designed to handle edge-heterogeneity and 2) Adopting a contrastive loss function to ensure node-heterogeneity. In rigorous evaluation on two CA-HAR datasets, DHC-HGL significantly outperformed state-of-the-art baselines by 5.8% to 16.7% on Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) and 3.0% to 8.4% on Macro F1 scores. UMAP visualizations of learned CA-HAR node embeddings are also presented to enhance model explainability.