Performance Analysis
Breaking the Cycle of Incarceration With Targeted Mental Health Outreach: A Case Study in Machine Learning for Public Policy
Rodolfa, Kit T., Salomon, Erika, Yao, Jin, Yoder, Steve, Sullivan, Robert, McGuire, Kevin, Dickinson, Allie, MacDougall, Rob, Seidler, Brian, Sung, Christina, Herdeman, Claire, Ghani, Rayid
Many incarcerated individuals face significant and complex challenges, including mental illness, substance dependence, and homelessness, yet jails and prisons are often poorly equipped to address these needs. With little support from the existing criminal justice system, these needs can remain untreated and worsen, often leading to further offenses and a cycle of incarceration with adverse outcomes both for the individual and for public safety, with particularly large impacts on communities of color that continue to widen the already extensive racial disparities in criminal justice outcomes. Responding to these failures, a growing number of criminal justice stakeholders are seeking to break this cycle through innovative approaches such as community-driven and alternative approaches to policing, mentoring, community building, restorative justice, pretrial diversion, holistic defense, and social service connections. Here we report on a collaboration between Johnson County, Kansas, and Carnegie Mellon University to perform targeted, proactive mental health outreach in an effort to reduce reincarceration rates. This paper describes the data used, our predictive modeling approach and results, as well as the design and analysis of a field trial conducted to confirm our model's predictive power, evaluate the impact of this targeted outreach, and understand at what level of reincarceration risk outreach might be most effective. Through this trial, we find that our model is highly predictive of new jail bookings, with more than half of individuals in the trial's highest-risk group returning to jail in the following year. Outreach was most effective among these highest-risk individuals, with impacts on mental health utilization, EMS dispatches, and criminal justice involvement.
Queen Detection in Beehives via Environmental Sensor Fusion for Low-Power Edge Computing
De Luca, Chiara, Donati, Elisa
Queen bee presence is essential for the health and stability of honeybee colonies, yet current monitoring methods rely on manual inspections that are labor-intensive, disruptive, and impractical for large-scale beekeeping. While recent audio-based approaches have shown promise, they often require high power consumption, complex preprocessing, and are susceptible to ambient noise. To overcome these limitations, we propose a lightweight, multimodal system for queen detection based on environmental sensor fusion-specifically, temperature, humidity, and pressure differentials between the inside and outside of the hive. Our approach employs quantized decision tree inference on a commercial STM32 microcontroller, enabling real-time, low-power edge computing without compromising accuracy. We show that our system achieves over 99% queen detection accuracy using only environmental inputs, with audio features offering no significant performance gain. This work presents a scalable and sustainable solution for non-invasive hive monitoring, paving the way for autonomous, precision beekeeping using off-the-shelf, energy-efficient hardware.
PhenoGnet: A Graph-Based Contrastive Learning Framework for Disease Similarity Prediction
Baminiwatte, Ranga, Rana, Kazi Jewel, Masino, Aaron J.
Understanding disease similarity is critical for advancing diagnostics, drug discovery, and personalized treatment strategies. We present PhenoGnet, a novel graph-based contrastive learning framework designed to predict disease similarity by integrating gene functional interaction networks with the Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO). PhenoGnet comprises two key components: an intra-view model that separately encodes gene and phenotype graphs using Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Graph Attention Networks (GATs), and a cross view model implemented as a shared weight multilayer perceptron (MLP) that aligns gene and phenotype embeddings through contrastive learning. The model is trained using known gene phenotype associations as positive pairs and randomly sampled unrelated pairs as negatives. Diseases are represented by the mean embeddings of their associated genes and/or phenotypes, and pairwise similarity is computed via cosine similarity. Evaluation on a curated benchmark of 1,100 similar and 866 dissimilar disease pairs demonstrates strong performance, with gene based embeddings achieving an AUCPR of 0.9012 and AUROC of 0.8764, outperforming existing state of the art methods. Notably, PhenoGnet captures latent biological relationships beyond direct overlap, offering a scalable and interpretable solution for disease similarity prediction. These results underscore its potential for enabling downstream applications in rare disease research and precision medicine.
Classification Filtering
We consider a streaming signal in which each sample is linked to a latent class. We assume that multiple classifiers are available, each providing class probabilities with varying degrees of accuracy. These classifiers are employed following a straightforward and fixed policy. In this setting, we consider the problem of fusing the output of the classifiers while incorporating the temporal aspect to improve classification accuracy. We propose a state-space model and develop a filter tailored for realtime execution. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed filter in an activity classification application based on inertial measurement unit (IMU) data from a wearable device.
Hybrid Quantum-Classical Neural Networks for Few-Shot Credit Risk Assessment
Wang, Zheng-an, Wang, Yanbo J., Zhang, Jiachi, Xu, Qi, Zhao, Yilun, Li, Jintao, Zhang, Yipeng, Yang, Bo, Gao, Xinkai, Cao, Xiaofeng, Xu, Kai, Hao, Pengpeng, Yang, Xuan, Fan, Heng
Quantum Machine Learning (QML) offers a new paradigm for addressing complex financial problems intractable for classical methods. This work specifically tackles the challenge of few-shot credit risk assessment, a critical issue in inclusive finance where data scarcity and imbalance limit the effectiveness of conventional models. To address this, we design and implement a novel hybrid quantum-classical workflow. The methodology first employs an ensemble of classical machine learning models (Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost) for intelligent feature engineering and dimensionality reduction. Subsequently, a Quantum Neural Network (QNN), trained via the parameter-shift rule, serves as the core classifier. This framework was evaluated through numerical simulations and deployed on the Quafu Quantum Cloud Platform's ScQ-P21 superconducting processor. On a real-world credit dataset of 279 samples, our QNN achieved a robust average AUC of 0.852 +/- 0.027 in simulations and yielded an impressive AUC of 0.88 in the hardware experiment. This performance surpasses a suite of classical benchmarks, with a particularly strong result on the recall metric. This study provides a pragmatic blueprint for applying quantum computing to data-constrained financial scenarios in the NISQ era and offers valuable empirical evidence supporting its potential in high-stakes applications like inclusive finance.
Automated Triaging and Transfer Learning of Incident Learning Safety Reports Using Large Language Representational Models
Beidler, Peter, Nguyen, Mark, Lybarger, Kevin, Holmberg, Ola, Ford, Eric, Kang, John
PURPOSE: Incident reports are an important tool for safety and quality improvement in healthcare, but manual review is time-consuming and requires subject matter expertise. Here we present a natural language processing (NLP) screening tool to detect high-severity incident reports in radiation oncology across two institutions. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We used two text datasets to train and evaluate our NLP models: 7,094 reports from our institution (Inst.), and 571 from IAEA SAFRON (SF), all of which had severity scores labeled by clinical content experts. We trained and evaluated two types of models: baseline support vector machines (SVM) and BlueBERT which is a large language model pretrained on PubMed abstracts and hospitalized patient data. We assessed for generalizability of our model in two ways. First, we evaluated models trained using Inst.-train on SF-test. Second, we trained a BlueBERT_TRANSFER model that was first fine-tuned on Inst.-train then on SF-train before testing on SF-test set. To further analyze model performance, we also examined a subset of 59 reports from our Inst. dataset, which were manually edited for clarity. RESULTS Classification performance on the Inst. test achieved AUROC 0.82 using SVM and 0.81 using BlueBERT. Without cross-institution transfer learning, performance on the SF test was limited to an AUROC of 0.42 using SVM and 0.56 using BlueBERT. BlueBERT_TRANSFER, which was fine-tuned on both datasets, improved the performance on SF test to AUROC 0.78. Performance of SVM, and BlueBERT_TRANSFER models on the manually curated Inst. reports (AUROC 0.85 and 0.74) was similar to human performance (AUROC 0.81). CONCLUSION: In summary, we successfully developed cross-institution NLP models on incident report text from radiation oncology centers. These models were able to detect high-severity reports similarly to humans on a curated dataset.
Sparse Neurons Carry Strong Signals of Question Ambiguity in LLMs
Zhang, Zhuoxuan, Duan, Jinhao, Kim, Edward, Xu, Kaidi
Ambiguity is pervasive in real-world questions, yet large language models (LLMs) often respond with confident answers rather than seeking clarification. In this work, we show that question ambiguity is linearly encoded in the internal representations of LLMs and can be both detected and controlled at the neuron level. During the model's pre-filling stage, we identify that a small number of neurons, as few as one, encode question ambiguity information. Probes trained on these Ambiguity-Encoding Neurons (AENs) achieve strong performance on ambiguity detection and generalize across datasets, outperforming prompting-based and representation-based baselines. Layerwise analysis reveals that AENs emerge from shallow layers, suggesting early encoding of ambiguity signals in the model's processing pipeline. Finally, we show that through manipulating AENs, we can control LLM's behavior from direct answering to abstention. Our findings reveal that LLMs form compact internal representations of question ambiguity, enabling interpretable and controllable behavior.
Controllable Pareto Trade-off between Fairness and Accuracy
Du, Yongkang, Zhao, Jieyu, Yang, Yijun, Zhou, Tianyi
The fairness-accuracy trade-off is a key challenge in NLP tasks. Current work focuses on finding a single "optimal" solution to balance the two objectives, which is limited considering the diverse solutions on the Pareto front. This work intends to provide controllable trade-offs according to the user's preference of the two objectives, which is defined as a reference vector. To achieve this goal, we apply multi-objective optimization (MOO), which can find solutions from various regions of the Pareto front. However, it is challenging to precisely control the trade-off due to the stochasticity of the training process and the high dimentional gradient vectors. Thus, we propose Controllable Pareto Trade-off (CPT) that can effectively train models to perform different trade-offs according to users' preferences. CPT 1) stabilizes the fairness update with a moving average of stochastic gradients to determine the update direction, and 2) prunes the gradients by only keeping the gradients of the critical parameters. We evaluate CPT on hate speech detection and occupation classification tasks. Experiments show that CPT can achieve a higher-quality set of solutions on the Pareto front than the baseline methods. It also exhibits better controllability and can precisely follow the human-defined reference vectors.
Meta-Learning Linear Models for Molecular Property Prediction
Pimonova, Yulia, Taylor, Michael G., Allen, Alice, Yang, Ping, Lubbers, Nicholas
Chemists in search of structure-property relationships face great challenges due to limited high quality, concordant datasets. Machine learning (ML) has significantly advanced predictive capabilities in chemical sciences, but these modern data-driven approaches have increased the demand for data. In response to the growing demand for explainable AI (XAI) and to bridge the gap between predictive accuracy and human comprehensibility, we introduce LAMeL - a Linear Algorithm for Meta-Learning that preserves interpretability while improving the prediction accuracy across multiple properties. While most approaches treat each chemical prediction task in isolation, LAMeL leverages a meta-learning framework to identify shared model parameters across related tasks, even if those tasks do not share data, allowing it to learn a common functional manifold that serves as a more informed starting point for new unseen tasks. Our method delivers performance improvements ranging from 1.1- to 25-fold over standard ridge regression, depending on the domain of the dataset. While the degree of performance enhancement varies across tasks, LAMeL consistently outperforms or matches traditional linear methods, making it a reliable tool for chemical property prediction where both accuracy and interpretability are critical.
An Empirical Analysis of VLM-based OOD Detection: Mechanisms, Advantages, and Sensitivity
Lee, Yuxiao, Cao, Xiaofeng, Ye, Wei, Yao, Jiangchao, Song, Jingkuan, Shen, Heng Tao
Vision-Language Models (VLMs), such as CLIP, have demonstrated remarkable zero-shot out-of-distribution (OOD) detection capabilities, vital for reliable AI systems. Despite this promising capability, a comprehensive understanding of (1) why they work so effectively, (2) what advantages do they have over single-modal methods, and (3) how is their behavioral robustness -- remains notably incomplete within the research community. This paper presents a systematic empirical analysis of VLM-based OOD detection using in-distribution (ID) and OOD prompts. (1) Mechanisms: We systematically characterize and formalize key operational properties within the VLM embedding space that facilitate zero-shot OOD detection. (2) Advantages: We empirically quantify the superiority of these models over established single-modal approaches, attributing this distinct advantage to the VLM's capacity to leverage rich semantic novelty. (3) Sensitivity: We uncovers a significant and previously under-explored asymmetry in their robustness profile: while exhibiting resilience to common image noise, these VLM-based methods are highly sensitive to prompt phrasing. Our findings contribute a more structured understanding of the strengths and critical vulnerabilities inherent in VLM-based OOD detection, offering crucial, empirically-grounded guidance for developing more robust and reliable future designs.