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 Performance Analysis


Monitoring the calibration of probability forecasts with an application to concept drift detection involving image classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine learning approaches for image classification have led to impressive advances in that field. For example, convolutional neural networks are able to achieve remarkable image classification accuracy across a wide range of applications in industry, defense, and other areas. While these machine learning models boast impressive accuracy, a related concern is how to assess and maintain calibration in the predictions these models make. A classification model is said to be well calibrated if its predicted probabilities correspond with the rates events actually occur. While there are many available methods to assess machine learning calibration and recalibrate faulty predictions, less effort has been spent on developing approaches that continually monitor predictive models for potential loss of calibration as time passes. We propose a cumulative sum-based approach with dynamic limits that enable detection of miscalibration in both traditional process monitoring and concept drift applications. This enables early detection of operational context changes that impact image classification performance in the field. The proposed chart can be used broadly in any situation where the user needs to monitor probability predictions over time for potential lapses in calibration. Importantly, our method operates on probability predictions and event outcomes and does not require under-the-hood access to the machine learning model.


Robust variable selection for spatial point processes observed with noise

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a method for variable selection in the intensity function of spatial point processes that combines sparsity-promoting estimation with noise-robust model selection. As high-resolution spatial data becomes increasingly available through remote sensing and automated image analysis, identifying spatial covariates that influence the localization of events is crucial to understand the underlying mechanism. However, results from automated acquisition techniques are often noisy, for example due to measurement uncertainties or detection errors, which leads to spurious displacements and missed events. We study the impact of such noise on sparse point-process estimation across different models, including Poisson and Thomas processes. To improve noise robustness, we propose to use stability selection based on point-process subsampling and to incorporate a non-convex best-subset penalty to enhance model-selection performance. In extensive simulations, we demonstrate that such an approach reliably recovers true covariates under diverse noise scenarios and improves both selection accuracy and stability. We then apply the proposed method to a forestry data set, analyzing the distribution of trees in relation to elevation and soil nutrients in a tropical rain forest. This shows the practical utility of the method, which provides a systematic framework for robust variable selection in spatial point-process models under noise, without requiring additional knowledge of the process.


Beyond Normality: Reliable A/B Testing with Non-Gaussian Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A/B testing has become the cornerstone of decision-making in online markets, guiding how platforms launch new features, optimize pricing strategies, and improve user experience. In practice, we typically employ the pairwise $t$-test to compare outcomes between the treatment and control groups, thereby assessing the effectiveness of a given strategy. To be trustworthy, these experiments must keep Type I error (i.e., false positive rate) under control; otherwise, we may launch harmful strategies. However, in real-world applications, we find that A/B testing often fails to deliver reliable results. When the data distribution departs from normality or when the treatment and control groups differ in sample size, the commonly used pairwise $t$-test is no longer trustworthy. In this paper, we quantify how skewed, long tailed data and unequal allocation distort error rates and derive explicit formulas for the minimum sample size required for the $t$-test to remain valid. We find that many online feedback metrics require hundreds of millions samples to ensure reliable A/B testing. Thus we introduce an Edgeworth-based correction that provides more accurate $p$-values when the available sample size is limited. Offline experiments on a leading A/B testing platform corroborate the practical value of our theoretical minimum sample size thresholds and demonstrate that the corrected method substantially improves the reliability of A/B testing in real-world conditions.


Combining SHAP and Causal Analysis for Interpretable Fault Detection in Industrial Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Industrial processes generate complex data that challenge fault detection systems, often yielding opaque or underwhelming results despite advanced machine learning techniques. This study tackles such difficulties using the Tennessee Eastman Process, a well-established benchmark known for its intricate dynamics, to develop an innovative fault detection framework. Initial attempts with standard models revealed limitations in both performance and interpretability, prompting a shift toward a more tractable approach. By employing SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), we transform the problem into a more manageable and transparent form, pinpointing the most critical process features driving fault predictions. This reduction in complexity unlocks the ability to apply causal analysis through Directed Acyclic Graphs, generated by multiple algorithms, to uncover the underlying mechanisms of fault propagation. The resulting causal structures align strikingly with SHAP findings, consistently highlighting key process elements-like cooling and separation systems-as pivotal to fault development. Together, these methods not only enhance detection accuracy but also provide operators with clear, actionable insights into fault origins, a synergy that, to our knowledge, has not been previously explored in this context. This dual approach bridges predictive power with causal understanding, offering a robust tool for monitoring complex manufacturing environments and paving the way for smarter, more interpretable fault detection in industrial systems.


Acoustic and Machine Learning Methods for Speech-Based Suicide Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Suicide remains a public health challenge, necessitating improved detection methods to facilitate timely intervention and treatment. This systematic review evaluates the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) in assessing suicide risk through acoustic analysis of speech. Following PRISMA guidelines, we analyzed 33 articles selected from PubMed, Cochrane, Scopus, and Web of Science databases. The last search was conducted in February 2025. Risk of bias was assessed using the PROBAST tool. Studies analyzing acoustic features between individuals at risk of suicide (RS) and those not at risk (NRS) were included, while studies lacking acoustic data, a suicide-related focus, or sufficient methodological details were excluded. Sample sizes varied widely and were reported in terms of participants or speech segments, depending on the study. Results were synthesized narratively based on acoustic features and classifier performance. Findings consistently showed significant acoustic feature variations between RS and NRS populations, particularly involving jitter, fundamental frequency (F0), Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC), and power spectral density (PSD). Classifier performance varied based on algorithms, modalities, and speech elicitation methods, with multimodal approaches integrating acoustic, linguistic, and metadata features demonstrating superior performance. Among the 29 classifier-based studies, reported AUC values ranged from 0.62 to 0.985 and accuracies from 60% to 99.85%. Most datasets were imbalanced in favor of NRS, and performance metrics were rarely reported separately by group, limiting clear identification of direction of effect.


Securing Transfer-Learned Networks with Reverse Homomorphic Encryption

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The growing body of literature on training-data reconstruction attacks raises significant concerns about deploying neural network classifiers trained on sensitive data. However, differentially private (DP) training (e.g. using DP-SGD) can defend against such attacks with large training datasets causing only minimal loss of network utility. Folklore, heuristics, and (albeit pessimistic) DP bounds suggest this fails for networks trained with small per-class datasets, yet to the best of our knowledge the literature offers no compelling evidence. We directly demonstrate this vulnerability by significantly extending reconstruction attack capabilities under a realistic adversary threat model for few-shot transfer learned image classifiers. We design new white-box and black-box attacks and find that DP-SGD is unable to defend against these without significant classifier utility loss. To address this, we propose a novel homomorphic encryption (HE) method that protects training data without degrading model's accuracy. Conventional HE secures model's input data and requires costly homomorphic implementation of the entire classifier. In contrast, our new scheme is computationally efficient and protects training data rather than input data. This is achieved by means of a simple role-reversal where classifier input data is unencrypted but transfer-learned weights are encrypted. Classifier outputs remain encrypted, thus preventing both white-box and black-box (and any other) training-data reconstruction attacks. Under this new scheme only a trusted party with a private decryption key can obtain the classifier class decisions.


Video-SafetyBench: A Benchmark for Safety Evaluation of Video LVLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The increasing deployment of Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) raises safety concerns under potential malicious inputs. However, existing multimodal safety evaluations primarily focus on model vulnerabilities exposed by static image inputs, ignoring the temporal dynamics of video that may induce distinct safety risks. To bridge this gap, we introduce Video-SafetyBench, the first comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate the safety of LVLMs under video-text attacks. It comprises 2,264 video-text pairs spanning 48 fine-grained unsafe categories, each pairing a synthesized video with either a harmful query, which contains explicit malice, or a benign query, which appears harmless but triggers harmful behavior when interpreted alongside the video. To generate semantically accurate videos for safety evaluation, we design a controllable pipeline that decomposes video semantics into subject images (what is shown) and motion text (how it moves), which jointly guide the synthesis of query-relevant videos. To effectively evaluate uncertain or borderline harmful outputs, we propose RJScore, a novel LLM-based metric that incorporates the confidence of judge models and human-aligned decision threshold calibration. Extensive experiments show that benign-query video composition achieves average attack success rates of 67.2%, revealing consistent vulnerabilities to video-induced attacks. We believe Video-SafetyBench will catalyze future research into video-based safety evaluation and defense strategies.


Symbolic Snapshot Ensembles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Inductive logic programming (ILP) is a form of logical machine learning. Most ILP algorithms learn a single hypothesis from a single training run. Ensemble methods train an ILP algorithm multiple times to learn multiple hypotheses. In this paper, we train an ILP algorithm only once and save intermediate hypotheses. We then combine the hypotheses using a minimum description length weighting scheme. Our experiments on multiple benchmarks, including game playing and visual reasoning, show that our approach improves predictive accuracy by 4% with less than 1% computational overhead.


Unsupervised Machine-Learning Pipeline for Data-Driven Defect Detection and Characterisation: Application to Displacement Cascades

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neutron irradiation produces, within a few picoseconds, displacement cascades that are sequences of atomic collisions generating point and extended defects which subsequently affects the long-term evolution of materials. The diversity of these defects, characterized morphologically and statistically, defines what is called the "primary damage". In this work, we present a fully unsupervised machine learning (ML) workflow that detects and classifies these defects directly from molecular dynamics data. Local environments are encoded by the Smooth Overlap of Atomic Positions (SOAP) vector, anomalous atoms are isolated with autoencoder neural networks (AE), embedded with Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) and clustered using Hierarchical Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (HDBSCAN). Applied to 80 keV displacement cascades in Ni, Fe$_7$0Ni$_{10}$Cr$_{20}$, and Zr, the AE successfully identify the small fraction of outlier atoms that participate in defect formation. HDBSCAN then partitions the UMAP latent space of AE-flagged SOAP descriptors into well defined groups representing vacancy- and interstitial-dominated regions and, within each, separates small from large aggregates, assigning 99.7 % of outliers to compact physical motifs. A signed cluster-identification score confirms this separation, and cluster size scales with net defect counts (R2 > 0.89). Statistical cross analyses between the ML outlier map and several conventional detectors (centrosymmetry, dislocation extraction, etc.) reveal strong overlap and complementary coverage, all achieved without template or threshold tuning. This ML workflow thus provides an efficient tool for the quantitative mapping of structural anomalies in materials, particularly those arising from irradiation damage in displacement cascades.


EDC: Equation Discovery for Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Equation Discovery techniques have shown considerable success in regression tasks, where they are used to discover concise and interpretable models (\textit{Symbolic Regression}). In this paper, we propose a new ED-based binary classification framework. Our proposed method EDC finds analytical functions of manageable size that specify the location and shape of the decision boundary. In extensive experiments on artificial and real-life data, we demonstrate how EDC is able to discover both the structure of the target equation as well as the value of its parameters, outperforming the current state-of-the-art ED-based classification methods in binary classification and achieving performance comparable to the state of the art in binary classification. We suggest a grammar of modest complexity that appears to work well on the tested datasets but argue that the exact grammar -- and thus the complexity of the models -- is configurable, and especially domain-specific expressions can be included in the pattern language, where that is required. The presented grammar consists of a series of summands (additive terms) that include linear, quadratic and exponential terms, as well as products of two features (producing hyperbolic curves ideal for capturing XOR-like dependencies). The experiments demonstrate that this grammar allows fairly flexible decision boundaries while not so rich to cause overfitting.