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 Performance Analysis


Generative Medical Event Models Improve with Scale

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Realizing personalized medicine at scale calls for methods that distill insights from longitudinal patient journeys, which can be viewed as a sequence of medical events. Foundation models pretrained on large-scale medical event data represent a promising direction for scaling real-world evidence generation and generalizing to diverse downstream tasks. Using Epic Cosmos, a dataset with medical events from de-identified longitudinal health records for 16.3 billion encounters over 300 million unique patient records from 310 health systems, we introduce the Curiosity models, a family of decoder-only transformer models pretrained on 118 million patients representing 115 billion discrete medical events (151 billion tokens). We present the largest scaling-law study of medical event data, establishing a methodology for pretraining and revealing power-law scaling relationships for compute, tokens, and model size. Consequently, we pretrained a series of compute-optimal models with up to 1 billion parameters. Conditioned on a patient's real-world history, Curiosity autoregressively predicts the next medical event to simulate patient health timelines. We studied 78 real-world tasks, including diagnosis prediction, disease prognosis, and healthcare operations. Remarkably for a foundation model with generic pretraining and simulation-based inference, Curiosity generally outperformed or matched task-specific supervised models on these tasks, without requiring task-specific fine-tuning or few-shot examples. Curiosity's predictive power consistently improves as the model and pretraining scale. Our results show that Curiosity, a generative medical event foundation model, can effectively capture complex clinical dynamics, providing an extensible and generalizable framework to support clinical decision-making, streamline healthcare operations, and improve patient outcomes.


Self-Evaluating LLMs for Multi-Step Tasks: Stepwise Confidence Estimation for Failure Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reliability and failure detection of large language models (LLMs) is critical for their deployment in high-stakes, multi-step reasoning tasks. Prior work explores confidence estimation for self-evaluating LLM-scorer systems, with confidence scorers estimating the likelihood of errors in LLM responses. However, most methods focus on single-step outputs and overlook the challenges of multi-step reasoning. In this work, we extend self-evaluation techniques to multi-step tasks, testing two intuitive approaches: holistic scoring and step-by-step scoring. Using two multi-step benchmark datasets, we show that stepwise evaluation generally outperforms holistic scoring in detecting potential errors, with up to 15% relative increase in AUC-ROC. Our findings demonstrate that self-evaluating LLM systems provide meaningful confidence estimates in complex reasoning, improving their trustworthiness and providing a practical framework for failure detection.


Leveraging Text-Driven Semantic Variation for Robust OOD Segmentation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In autonomous driving and robotics, ensuring road safety and reliable decision-making critically depends on out-of-distribution (OOD) segmentation. While numerous methods have been proposed to detect anomalous objects on the road, leveraging the vision-language space-which provides rich linguistic knowledge-remains an underexplored field. We hypothesize that incorporating these linguistic cues can be especially beneficial in the complex contexts found in real-world autonomous driving scenarios. To this end, we present a novel approach that trains a Text-Driven OOD Segmentation model to learn a semantically diverse set of objects in the vision-language space. Concretely, our approach combines a vision-language model's encoder with a transformer decoder, employs Distance-Based OOD prompts located at varying semantic distances from in-distribution (ID) classes, and utilizes OOD Semantic Augmentation for OOD representations. By aligning visual and textual information, our approach effectively generalizes to unseen objects and provides robust OOD segmentation in diverse driving environments. We conduct extensive experiments on publicly available OOD segmentation datasets such as Fishyscapes, Segment-Me-If-You-Can, and Road Anomaly datasets, demonstrating that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance across both pixel-level and object-level evaluations. This result underscores the potential of vision-language-based OOD segmentation to bolster the safety and reliability of future autonomous driving systems.


Federated Learning for Video Violence Detection: Complementary Roles of Lightweight CNNs and Vision-Language Models for Energy-Efficient Use

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning-based video surveillance increasingly demands privacy-preserving architectures with low computational and environmental overhead. Federated learning preserves privacy but deploying large vision-language models (VLMs) introduces major energy and sustainability challenges. We compare three strategies for federated violence detection under realistic non-IID splits on the RWF-2000 and RLVS datasets: zero-shot inference with pretrained VLMs, LoRA-based fine-tuning of LLaVA-NeXT-Video-7B, and personalized federated learning of a 65.8M-parameter 3D CNN. All methods exceed 90% accuracy in binary violence detection. The 3D CNN achieves superior calibration (ROC AUC 92.59%) at roughly half the energy cost (240 Wh vs. 570 Wh) of federated LoRA, while VLMs provide richer multimodal reasoning. Hierarchical category grouping (based on semantic similarity and class exclusion) boosts VLM multiclass accuracy from 65.31% to 81% on the UCF-Crime dataset. To our knowledge, this is the first comparative simulation study of LoRA-tuned VLMs and personalized CNNs for federated violence detection, with explicit energy and CO2e quantification. Our results inform hybrid deployment strategies that default to efficient CNNs for routine inference and selectively engage VLMs for complex contextual reasoning.


Fuzzy Label: From Concept to Its Application in Label Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Label learning is a fundamental task in machine learning that aims to construct intelligent models using labeled data, encompassing traditional single-label and multi-label classification models. Traditional methods typically rely on logical labels, such as binary indicators (e.g., "yes/no") that specify whether an instance belongs to a given category. However, in practical applications, label annotations often involve significant uncertainty due to factors such as data noise, inherent ambiguity in the observed entities, and the subjectivity of human annotators. Therefore, representing labels using simplistic binary logic can obscure valuable information and limit the expressiveness of label learning models. To overcome this limitation, this paper introduces the concept of fuzzy labels, grounded in fuzzy set theory, to better capture and represent label uncertainty. We further propose an efficient fuzzy labeling method that mines and generates fuzzy labels from the original data, thereby enriching the label space with more informative and nuanced representations. Based on this foundation, we present fuzzy-label-enhanced algorithms for both single-label and multi-label learning, using the classical K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and multi-label KNN algorithms as illustrative examples. Experimental results indicate that fuzzy labels can more effectively characterize the real-world labeling information and significantly enhance the performance of label learning models.


CLiFT-ASR: A Cross-Lingual Fine-Tuning Framework for Low-Resource Taiwanese Hokkien Speech Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Automatic speech recognition (ASR) for low-resource languages such as Taiwanese Hokkien is difficult due to the scarcity of annotated data. However, direct fine-tuning on Han-character transcriptions often fails to capture detailed phonetic and tonal cues, while training only on roman-ization lacks lexical and syntactic coverage. In addition, prior studies have rarely explored staged strategies that integrate both annotation types. To address this gap, we present CLiFT-ASR, a cross-lingual fine-tuning framework that builds on Mandarin HuBERT models and progressively adapts them to Taiwanese Hokkien. The framework employs a two-stage process in which it first learns acoustic and tonal representations from phonetic Tai-lo annotations and then captures vocabulary and syntax from Han-character transcriptions. This progressive adaptation enables effective alignment between speech sounds and orthographic structures. Experiments on the TAT-MOE corpus demonstrate that CLiFT-ASR achieves a 24.88% relative reduction in character error rate (CER) compared with strong baselines. The results indicate that CLiFT-ASR provides an effective and parameter-efficient solution for Taiwanese Hokkien ASR and that it has potential to benefit other low-resource language scenarios.


Learning to Fast Unrank in Collaborative Filtering Recommendation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern data-driven recommendation systems risk memorizing sensitive user behavioral patterns, raising privacy concerns. Existing recommendation unlearning methods, while capable of removing target data influence, suffer from inefficient unlearning speed and degraded performance, failing to meet real-time unlearning demands. Considering the ranking-oriented nature of recommendation systems, we present unranking, the process of reducing the ranking positions of target items while ensuring the formal guarantees of recommendation unlearning. To achieve efficient unranking, we propose Learning to Fast Unrank in Collaborative Filtering Recommendation (L2UnRank), which operates through three key stages: (a) identifying the influenced scope via interaction-based p-hop propagation, (b) computing structural and semantic influences for entities within this scope, and (c) performing efficient, ranking-aware parameter updates guided by influence information. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets and backbone models demonstrate L2UnRank's model-agnostic nature, achieving state-of-the-art unranking effectiveness and maintaining recommendation quality comparable to retraining, while also delivering a 50x speedup over existing methods. Codes are available at https://github.com/Juniper42/L2UnRank.


Sentiment Analysis On YouTube Comments Using Machine Learning Techniques Based On Video Games Content

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid evolution of the gaming industry, driven by technological advancements and a burgeoning community, necessitates a deeper understanding of user sentiments, especially as expressed on popular social media platforms like YouTube. This study presents a sentiment analysis on video games based on YouTube comments, aiming to understand user sentiments within the gaming community. Utilizing YouTube API, comments related to various video games were collected and analyzed using the TextBlob sentiment analysis tool. The pre-processed data underwent classification using machine learning algorithms, including Naรฏve Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Among these, SVM demonstrated superior performance, achieving the highest classification accuracy across different datasets. The analysis spanned multiple popular gaming videos, revealing trends and insights into user preferences and critiques. The findings underscore the importance of advanced sentiment analysis in capturing the nuanced emotions expressed in user comments, providing valuable feedback for game developers to enhance game design and user experience. Future research will focus on integrating more sophisticated natural language processing techniques and exploring additional data sources to further refine sentiment analysis in the gaming domain.


An Adaptive Machine Learning Triage Framework for Predicting Alzheimer's Disease Progression

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate predictions of conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) can enable effective personalized therapy. While cognitive tests and clinical data are routinely collected, they lack the predictive power of PET scans and CSF biomarker analysis, which are prohibitively expensive to obtain for every patient. To address this cost-accuracy dilemma, we design a two-stage machine learning framework that selectively obtains advanced, costly features based on their predicted "value of information". We apply our framework to predict AD progression for MCI patients using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Our framework reduces the need for advanced testing by 20% while achieving a test AUROC of 0.929, comparable to the model that uses both basic and advanced features (AUROC=0.915, p=0.1010). We also provide an example interpretability analysis showing how one may explain the triage decision. Our work presents an interpretable, data-driven framework that optimizes AD diagnostic pathways and balances accuracy with cost, representing a step towards making early, reliable AD prediction more accessible in real-world practice. Future work should consider multiple categories of advanced features and larger-scale validation.


Improving Asset Allocation in a Fast Moving Consumer Goods B2B Company: An Interpretable Machine Learning Framework for Commercial Cooler Assignment Based on Multi-Tier Growth Targets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry, deciding where to place physical assets, such as commercial beverage coolers, can directly impact revenue growth and execution efficiency. Although churn prediction and demand forecasting have been widely studied in B2B contexts, the use of machine learning to guide asset allocation remains relatively unexplored. This paper presents a framework focused on predicting which beverage clients are most likely to deliver strong returns in volume after receiving a cooler. Using a private dataset from a well-known Central American brewing and beverage company of 3,119 B2B traditional trade channel clients that received a cooler from 2022-01 to 2024-07, and tracking 12 months of sales transactions before and after cooler installation, three growth thresholds were defined: 10%, 30% and 50% growth in sales volume year over year. The analysis compares results of machine learning models such as XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost combined with SHAP for interpretable feature analysis in order to have insights into improving business operations related to cooler allocation; the results show that the best model has AUC scores of 0.857, 0.877, and 0.898 across the thresholds on the validation set. Simulations suggest that this approach can improve ROI because it better selects potential clients to grow at the expected level and increases cost savings by not assigning clients that will not grow, compared to traditional volume-based approaches with substantial business management recommendations