The quest for low-cost fusion power has led to the construction of experimental devices such as the DIII-D[8], an operational device for conducting magnetic fusion research, and ITER [16], an international project to help make the transition from studies of plasma physics to electricity-generating fusion power plants. These devices, called tokamaks, use magnetic fields to confine the fusion fuel in the form of a plasma, enabling physicists to perform experiments to determine the best shape for the hot reacting plasma and the magnetic fields necessary to hold it in place. To complement the experiments, computer simulations are used to gain an understanding of the complex physics of the plasmas, design new reactors, and select the parameters to be used in experiments. Data from both the experiments and the simulations are analyzed to provide the insights that will contribute to achieving the goal of fusion power. In this paper, we focus on a specific analysis problem that arises in both simulation and experimental data, namely, the classification of orbits in a Poincaré map, also called a Poincaré plot. These two-dimensional plots are obtained for planes, called poloidal planes, which intersect the torus-shaped tokamak perpendicular to the magnetic axis, as shown in Figure 1(a). A plot consists of several orbits, each composed of a number of points (Figure 1(b)). For a given orbit, these points are the intersections of a field line (the solid lines in Figure 1(a)) with a poloidal plane, as the field line is followed around the torus. There are four distinct shapes traced out by these points, leading to four classes of orbits: quasi-periodic, separatrix, island chain, and stochastic, as shown in Figure 2. In some cases, the orbit shows its distinctive shape with just a few points, corresponding to the first few intersections of the field line with the poloidal plane.

Neural sequence models, especially transformers, exhibit a remarkable capacity for in-context learning. They can construct new predictors from sequences of labeled examples $(x, f(x))$ presented in the input without further parameter updates. We investigate the hypothesis that transformer-based in-context learners implement standard learning algorithms implicitly, by encoding smaller models in their activations, and updating these implicit models as new examples appear in the context. Using linear regression as a prototypical problem, we offer three sources of evidence for this hypothesis. First, we prove by construction that transformers can implement learning algorithms for linear models based on gradient descent and closed-form ridge regression. Second, we show that trained in-context learners closely match the predictors computed by gradient descent, ridge regression, and exact least-squares regression, transitioning between different predictors as transformer depth and dataset noise vary, and converging to Bayesian estimators for large widths and depths. Third, we present preliminary evidence that in-context learners share algorithmic features with these predictors: learners' late layers non-linearly encode weight vectors and moment matrices. These results suggest that in-context learning is understandable in algorithmic terms, and that (at least in the linear case) learners may rediscover standard estimation algorithms. Code and reference implementations are released at https://github.com/ekinakyurek/google-research/blob/master/incontext.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical to building reliable machine learning systems in the open world. Researchers have proposed various strategies to reduce model overconfidence on OOD data. Among them, ReAct is a typical and effective technique to deal with model overconfidence, which truncates high activations to increase the gap between in-distribution and OOD. Despite its promising results, is this technique the best choice? To answer this question, we leverage the variational method to find the optimal operation and verify the necessity of suppressing abnormally low and high activations and amplifying intermediate activations in OOD detection, rather than focusing only on high activations like ReAct. This motivates us to propose a novel technique called "Variational Rectified Activation (VRA)", which simulates these suppression and amplification operations using piecewise functions. Experimental results on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms existing post-hoc strategies. Meanwhile, VRA is compatible with different scoring functions and network architectures. Our code can be found in Supplementary Material.

Across domains such as medicine, employment, and criminal justice, predictive models often target labels that imperfectly reflect the outcomes of interest to experts and policymakers. For example, clinical risk assessments deployed to inform physician decision-making often predict measures of healthcare utilization (e.g., costs, hospitalization) as a proxy for patient medical need. These proxies can be subject to outcome measurement error when they systematically differ from the target outcome they are intended to measure. However, prior modeling efforts to characterize and mitigate outcome measurement error overlook the fact that the decision being informed by a model often serves as a risk-mitigating intervention that impacts the target outcome of interest and its recorded proxy. Thus, in these settings, addressing measurement error requires counterfactual modeling of treatment effects on outcomes. In this work, we study intersectional threats to model reliability introduced by outcome measurement error, treatment effects, and selection bias from historical decision-making policies. We develop an unbiased risk minimization method which, given knowledge of proxy measurement error properties, corrects for the combined effects of these challenges. We also develop a method for estimating treatment-dependent measurement error parameters when these are unknown in advance. We demonstrate the utility of our approach theoretically and via experiments on real-world data from randomized controlled trials conducted in healthcare and employment domains. As importantly, we demonstrate that models correcting for outcome measurement error or treatment effects alone suffer from considerable reliability limitations. Our work underscores the importance of considering intersectional threats to model validity during the design and evaluation of predictive models for decision support.

Group fairness is achieved by equalising prediction distributions between protected sub-populations; individual fairness requires treating similar individuals alike. These two objectives, however, are incompatible when a scoring model is calibrated through discontinuous probability functions, where individuals can be randomly assigned an outcome determined by a fixed probability. This procedure may provide two similar individuals from the same protected group with classification odds that are disparately different -- a clear violation of individual fairness. Assigning unique odds to each protected sub-population may also prevent members of one sub-population from ever receiving equal chances of a positive outcome to another, which we argue is another type of unfairness called individual odds. We reconcile all this by constructing continuous probability functions between group thresholds that are constrained by their Lipschitz constant. Our solution preserves the model's predictive power, individual fairness and robustness while ensuring group fairness.

NASA's Kepler Space Telescope has been instrumental in the task of finding the presence of exoplanets in our galaxy. This search has been supported by computational data analysis to identify exoplanets from the signals received by the Kepler telescope. In this paper, we consider building upon some existing work on exoplanet identification using residual networks for the data of the Kepler space telescope and its extended mission K2. This paper aims to explore how deep learning algorithms can help in classifying the presence of exoplanets with less amount of data in one case and a more extensive variety of data in another. In addition to the standard CNN-based method, we propose a Siamese architecture that is particularly useful in addressing classification in a low-data scenario. The CNN and ResNet algorithms achieved an average accuracy of 68% for three classes and 86% for two-class classification. However, for both the three and two classes, the Siamese algorithm achieved 99% accuracy.

Recent semantic segmentation models accurately classify test-time examples that are similar to a training dataset distribution. However, their discriminative closed-set approach is not robust in practical data setups with distributional shifts and out-of-distribution (OOD) classes. As a result, the predicted probabilities can be very imprecise when used as confidence scores at test time. To address this, we propose a generative model for concurrent in-distribution misclassification (IDM) and OOD detection that relies on a normalizing flow framework. The proposed flow-based detector with an energy-based inputs (FlowEneDet) can extend previously deployed segmentation models without their time-consuming retraining. Our FlowEneDet results in a low-complexity architecture with marginal increase in the memory footprint. FlowEneDet achieves promising results on Cityscapes, Cityscapes-C, FishyScapes and SegmentMeIfYouCan benchmarks in IDM/OOD detection when applied to pretrained DeepLabV3+ and SegFormer semantic segmentation models.

In the current landscape of ever-increasing levels of digitalization, we are facing major challenges pertaining to scalability. Recommender systems have become irreplaceable both for helping users navigate the increasing amounts of data and, conversely, aiding providers in marketing products to interested users. The growing awareness of discrimination in machine learning methods has recently motivated both academia and industry to research how fairness can be ensured in recommender systems. For recommender systems, such issues are well exemplified by occupation recommendation, where biases in historical data may lead to recommender systems relating one gender to lower wages or to the propagation of stereotypes. In particular, consumer-side fairness, which focuses on mitigating discrimination experienced by users of recommender systems, has seen a vast number of diverse approaches for addressing different types of discrimination. The nature of said discrimination depends on the setting and the applied fairness interpretation, of which there are many variations. This survey serves as a systematic overview and discussion of the current research on consumer-side fairness in recommender systems. To that end, a novel taxonomy based on high-level fairness interpretation is proposed and used to categorize the research and their proposed fairness evaluation metrics. Finally, we highlight some suggestions for the future direction of the field.

Training machine learning models in an incremental fashion is not only important but also an efficient way to achieve artificial general intelligence. The ability that humans possess of continuous or lifelong learning helps them to not forget previously learned tasks. However, current neural network models are prone to catastrophic forgetting when it comes to continual learning. Many researchers have come up with several techniques in order to reduce the effect of forgetting from neural networks, however, all techniques are studied classically with a very less focus on changing the machine learning model architecture. In this research paper, we show that it is not only possible to circumvent catastrophic forgetting in continual learning with novel hybrid classical-quantum neural networks, but also explains what features are most important to learn for classification. In addition, we also claim that if the model is trained with these explanations, it tends to give better performance and learn specific features that are far from the decision boundary. Finally, we present the experimental results to show comparisons between classical and classical-quantum hybrid architectures on benchmark MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets. After successful runs of learning procedure, we found hybrid neural network outperforms classical one in terms of remembering the right evidences of the class-specific features.

In this paper, we present a machine learning-based data generator framework tailored to aid researchers who utilize simulations to examine various physical systems or processes. High computational costs and the resulting limited data often pose significant challenges to gaining insights into these systems or processes. Our approach involves a two-step process: initially, we train a supervised predictive model using a limited simulated dataset to predict simulation outcomes. Subsequently, a reinforcement learning agent is trained to generate accurate, simulation-like data by leveraging the supervised model. With this framework, researchers can generate more accurate data and know the outcomes without running high computational simulations, which enables them to explore the parameter space more efficiently and gain deeper insights into physical systems or processes. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework by applying it to two case studies, one focusing on earthquake rupture physics and the other on new material development.