AB S TRACT This study evaluates the performance of various classifiers in three distinct models: r esponse, r isk, and r esponse - r isk, concerning credit card mail campaigns and default prediction. In the r esponse model, the Extra Trees classifier demonstrates the highest recall level (79.1%), emphasizing its effectiveness in identifying potential responders to targeted credit card offers. Conversely, in the r isk model, the Random Forest classifier exhibits remarkable specificity of 84.1%, crucial for identifying customers least likely to default. Furthermore, in the multi - class r esponse - r isk model, the Random Forest classifier achieve s the highest accuracy (83.2%), indicating its efficacy in discerning both potential responders to credit card mail campaign and low - risk credit card users . In this study, we optimized various performance metrics to solve a specific credit risk and mail responsiveness business problem.

Biclustering is an essential unsupervised machine learning technique for simultaneously clustering rows and columns of a data matrix, with widespread applications in genomics, transcriptomics, and other high-dimensional omics data. Despite its importance, existing biclustering methods struggle to meet the demands of modern large-scale datasets. The challenges stem from the accumulation of noise in high-dimensional features, the limitations of non-convex optimization formulations, and the computational complexity of identifying meaningful biclusters. These issues often result in reduced accuracy and stability as the size of the dataset increases. To overcome these challenges, we propose Sparse Convex Biclustering (SpaCoBi), a novel method that penalizes noise during the biclustering process to improve both accuracy and robustness. By adopting a convex optimization framework and introducing a stability-based tuning criterion, SpaCoBi achieves an optimal balance between cluster fidelity and sparsity. Comprehensive numerical studies, including simulations and an application to mouse olfactory bulb data, demonstrate that SpaCoBi significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in accuracy. These results highlight SpaCoBi as a robust and efficient solution for biclustering in high-dimensional and large-scale datasets.

Graphs are commonly used in machine learning to model relationships between instances. Consider the task of predicting the political preferences of users in a social network; to solve this task one should consider, both, the features of each individual user and the relationships between them. However, oftentimes one is not interested in the label of a single instance but rather in the distribution of labels over a set of instances; e.g., when predicting the political preferences of users, the overall prevalence of a given opinion might be of higher interest than the opinion of a specific person. This label prevalence estimation task is commonly referred to as quantification learning (QL). Current QL methods for tabular data are typically based on the so-called prior probability shift (PPS) assumption which states that the label-conditional instance distributions should remain equal across the training and test data. In the graph setting, PPS generally does not hold if the shift between training and test data is structural, i.e., if the training data comes from a different region of the graph than the test data. To address such structural shifts, an importance sampling variant of the popular adjusted count quantification approach has previously been proposed. In this work, we extend the idea of structural importance sampling to the state-of-the-art KDEy quantification approach. We show that our proposed method adapts to structural shifts and outperforms standard quantification approaches.

High-dimensional learning problems, where the number of features exceeds the sample size, often require sparse regularization for effective prediction and variable selection. While established for fully supervised data, these techniques remain underexplored in weak-supervision settings such as Positive-Confidence (Pconf) classification. Pconf learning utilizes only positive samples equipped with confidence scores, thereby avoiding the need for negative data. However, existing Pconf methods are ill-suited for high-dimensional regimes. This paper proposes a novel sparse-penalization framework for high-dimensional Pconf classification. We introduce estimators using convex (Lasso) and non-convex (SCAD, MCP) penalties to address shrinkage bias and improve feature recovery. Theoretically, we establish estimation and prediction error bounds for the L1-regularized Pconf estimator, proving it achieves near minimax-optimal sparse recovery rates under Restricted Strong Convexity condition. To solve the resulting composite objective, we develop an efficient proximal gradient algorithm. Extensive simulations demonstrate that our proposed methods achieve predictive performance and variable selection accuracy comparable to fully supervised approaches, effectively bridging the gap between weak supervision and high-dimensional statistics.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance but face critical challenges: hallucinations and high inference costs. Leveraging multiple experts offers a solution: deferring uncertain inputs to more capable experts improves reliability, while routing simpler queries to smaller, distilled models enhances efficiency. This motivates the problem of learning with multiple-expert deferral. This thesis presents a comprehensive study of this problem and the related problem of learning with abstention, supported by strong consistency guarantees. First, for learning with abstention (a special case of deferral), we analyze score-based and predictor-rejector formulations in multi-class classification. We introduce new families of surrogate losses and prove strong non-asymptotic, hypothesis set-specific consistency guarantees, resolving two existing open questions. We analyze both single-stage and practical two-stage settings, with experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and SVHN demonstrating the superior performance of our algorithms. Second, we address general multi-expert deferral in classification. We design new surrogate losses for both single-stage and two-stage scenarios and prove they benefit from strong $H$-consistency bounds. For the two-stage scenario, we show that our surrogate losses are realizable $H$-consistent for constant cost functions, leading to effective new algorithms. Finally, we introduce a novel framework for regression with deferral to address continuous label spaces. Our versatile framework accommodates multiple experts and various cost structures, supporting both single-stage and two-stage methods. It subsumes recent work on regression with abstention. We propose new surrogate losses with proven $H$-consistency and demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of the resulting algorithms.

Estimating the probabilities of connections between vertices in a random network using an observed adjacency matrix is an important task for network data analysis. Many existing estimation methods are based on certain assumptions on network structure, which limit their applicability in practice. Without making strong assumptions, we develop an iterative connecting probability estimation method based on neighborhood averaging. Starting at a random initial point or an existing estimate, our method iteratively updates the pairwise vertex distances, the sets of similar vertices, and connecting probabilities to improve the precision of the estimate. We propose a two-stage neighborhood selection procedure to achieve the trade-off between smoothness of the estimate and the ability to discover local structure. The tuning parameters can be selected by cross-validation. We establish desirable theoretical properties for our method, and further justify its superior performance by comparing with existing methods in simulation and real data analysis.

Controlled variable selection is an important analytical step in various scientific fields, such as brain imaging or genomics. In these high-dimensional data settings, considering too many variables leads to poor models and high costs, hence the need for statistical guarantees on false positives. Knockoffs are a popular statistical tool for conditional variable selection in high dimension. However, they control for the expected proportion of false discoveries (FDR) and not the actual proportion of false discoveries (FDP). We present a new method, KOPI, that controls the proportion of false discoveries for Knockoff-based inference. The proposed method also relies on a new type of aggregation to address the undesirable randomness associated with classical Knockoff inference. We demonstrate FDP control and substantial power gains over existing Knockoff-based methods in various simulation settings and achieve good sensitivity/specificity tradeoffs on brain imaging data.

Dataset Distillation is the task of synthesizing small datasets from large ones while still retaining comparable predictive accuracy to the original uncompressed dataset. Despite significant empirical progress in recent years, there is little understanding of the theoretical limitations/guarantees of dataset distillation, specifically, what excess risk is achieved by distillation compared to the original dataset, and how large are distilled datasets? In this work, we take a theoretical view on kernel ridge regression (KRR) based methods of dataset distillation such as Kernel Inducing Points. By transforming ridge regression in random Fourier features (RFF) space, we provide the first proof of the existence of small (size) distilled datasets and their corresponding excess risk for shift-invariant kernels. We prove that a small set of instances exists in the original input space such that its solution in the RFF space coincides with the solution of the original data. We further show that a KRR solution can be generated using this distilled set of instances which gives an approximation towards the KRR solution optimized on the full input data. The size of this set is linear in the dimension of the RFF space of the input set or alternatively near linear in the number of effective degrees of freedom, which is a function of the kernel, number of data points, and the regularization parameter $\lambda$. The error bound of this distilled set is also a function of $\lambda$. We verify our bounds analytically and empirically.

When domain knowledge is limited and experimentation is restricted by ethical, financial, or time constraints, practitioners turn to observational causal discovery methods to recover the causal structure, exploiting the statistical properties of their data. Because causal discovery without further assumptions is an ill-posed problem, each algorithm comes with its own set of usually untestable assumptions, some of which are hard to meet in real datasets. Motivated by these considerations, this paper extensively benchmarks the empirical performance of recent causal discovery methods on observational data generated under different background conditions, allowing for violations of the critical assumptions required by each selected approach. Our experimental findings show that score matching-based methods demonstrate surprising performance in the false positive and false negative rate of the inferred graph in these challenging scenarios, and we provide theoretical insights into their performance. This work is also the first effort to benchmark the stability of causal discovery algorithms with respect to the values of their hyperparameters. Finally, we hope this paper will set a new standard for the evaluation of causal discovery methods and can serve as an accessible entry point for practitioners interested in the field, highlighting the empirical implications of different algorithm choices.