Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive in-context learning capabilities across various domains. Inspired by this, our study explores the effectiveness of LLMs in generating realistic tabular data to mitigate class imbalance. We investigate and identify key prompt design elements such as data format, class presentation, and variable mapping to optimize the generation performance. Our findings indicate that using CSV format, balancing classes, and employing unique variable mapping produces realistic and reliable data, significantly enhancing machine learning performance for minor classes in imbalanced datasets. Additionally, these approaches improve the stability and efficiency of LLM data generation.

Machine learning (ML) provides algorithms to create computer programs based on data without explicitly programming them. In business process management (BPM), ML applications are used to analyse and improve processes efficiently. Three frequent examples of using ML are providing decision support through predictions, discovering accurate process models, and improving resource allocation. This paper organises the body of knowledge on ML in BPM. We extract BPM tasks from different literature streams, summarise them under the phases of a process`s lifecycle, explain how ML helps perform these tasks and identify technical commonalities in ML implementations across tasks. This study is the first exhaustive review of how ML has been used in BPM. We hope that it can open the door for a new era of cumulative research by helping researchers to identify relevant preliminary work and then combine and further develop existing approaches in a focused fashion. Our paper helps managers and consultants to find ML applications that are relevant in the current project phase of a BPM initiative, like redesigning a business process. We also offer - as a synthesis of our review - a research agenda that spreads ten avenues for future research, including applying novel ML concepts like federated learning, addressing less regarded BPM lifecycle phases like process identification, and delivering ML applications with a focus on end-users.

Public benchmarks play an essential role in the evaluation of large language models. However, data contamination can lead to inflated performance, rendering them unreliable for model comparison. It is therefore crucial to detect contamination and estimate its impact on measured performance. Unfortunately, existing detection methods can be easily evaded and fail to quantify contamination. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel definition of contamination as artificially inflated and non-generalizing benchmark performance instead of the inclusion of benchmark samples in the training data. This perspective enables us to detect any model with inflated performance, i.e., performance that does not generalize to rephrased samples, synthetic samples from the same distribution, or different benchmarks for the same task. Based on this insight, we develop ConStat, a statistical method that reliably detects and quantifies contamination by comparing performance between a primary and reference benchmark relative to a set of reference models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ConStat in an extensive evaluation of diverse model architectures, benchmarks, and contamination scenarios and find high levels of contamination in multiple popular models including Mistral, Llama, Yi, and the top-3 Open LLM Leaderboard models.

Lane detection is a fundamental task in autonomous driving. While the problem is typically formulated as the detection of continuous boundaries, we study the problem of detecting lane boundaries that are sparsely marked by 2D points with many false positives. This problem arises in the Formula Student Driverless (FSD) competition and is challenging due to its inherent ambiguity. Previous methods are inefficient and unable to find long-horizon solutions. We propose a deterministic algorithm called CLC that uses backtracking graph search with a learned likelihood function to overcome these limitations. We impose geometric constraints on the lane candidates to guarantee a geometrically sound lane. Our exhaustive search leads to finding the global optimum in 45% of instances, and the algorithm is overall robust to up to 50% false positives. Our algorithm runs in less than 15 ms on a single CPU core, meeting the low latency requirements of autonomous racing. We extensively evaluate our method on real data and realistic racetrack layouts, and show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art by detecting long lanes over 100 m with few (0.6%) critical failures. This allows our autonomous racecar to drive close to its physical limits on a previously unknown racetrack without being limited by perception. We release our dataset with realistic Formula Student racetracks to enable further research.

Unsupervised fault detection in multivariate time series is critical for maintaining the integrity and efficiency of complex systems, with current methodologies largely focusing on statistical and machine learning techniques. However, these approaches often rest on the assumption that data distributions conform to Gaussian models, overlooking the diversity of patterns that can manifest in both normal and abnormal states, thereby diminishing discriminative performance. Our innovation addresses this limitation by introducing a combination of data augmentation and soft contrastive learning, specifically designed to capture the multifaceted nature of state behaviors more accurately. The data augmentation process enriches the dataset with varied representations of normal states, while soft contrastive learning fine-tunes the model's sensitivity to the subtle differences between normal and abnormal patterns, enabling it to recognize a broader spectrum of anomalies. This dual strategy significantly boosts the model's ability to distinguish between normal and abnormal states, leading to a marked improvement in fault detection performance across multiple datasets and settings, thereby setting a new benchmark for unsupervised fault detection in complex systems. The code of our method is available at \url{https://github.com/zangzelin/code_USD.git}.

Autism Spectrum Disorder is a condition characterized by a typical brain development leading to impairments in social skills, communication abilities, repetitive behaviors, and sensory processing. There have been many studies combining brain MRI images with machine learning algorithms to achieve objective diagnosis of autism, but the correlation between white matter and autism has not been fully utilized. To address this gap, we develop a computer-aided diagnostic model focusing on white matter regions in brain MRI by employing radiomics and machine learning methods. This study introduced a MultiUNet model for segmenting white matter, leveraging the UNet architecture and utilizing manually segmented MRI images as the training data. Subsequently, we extracted white matter features using the Pyradiomics toolkit and applied different machine learning models such as Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and K-Nearest Neighbors to predict autism. The prediction sets all exceeded 80% accuracy. Additionally, we employed Convolutional Neural Network to analyze segmented white matter images, achieving a prediction accuracy of 86.84%. Notably, Support Vector Machine demonstrated the highest prediction accuracy at 89.47%. These findings not only underscore the efficacy of the models but also establish a link between white matter abnormalities and autism. Our study contributes to a comprehensive evaluation of various diagnostic models for autism and introduces a computer-aided diagnostic algorithm for early and objective autism diagnosis based on MRI white matter regions.

To address the above problems, we introduce a novel black-box membership inference attack method that operates without needing access to the model's internal U-net. We then construct a DALL-E generated dataset for a more comprehensive evaluation. We validate our method across various setups, and our experimental results outperform previous works.

In this work we investigate the generalization performance of random feature ridge regression (RFRR). Our main contribution is a general deterministic equivalent for the test error of RFRR. Specifically, under a certain concentration property, we show that the test error is well approximated by a closed-form expression that only depends on the feature map eigenvalues. Notably, our approximation guarantee is non-asymptotic, multiplicative, and independent of the feature map dimension -- allowing for infinite-dimensional features. We expect this deterministic equivalent to hold broadly beyond our theoretical analysis, and we empirically validate its predictions on various real and synthetic datasets. As an application, we derive sharp excess error rates under standard power-law assumptions of the spectrum and target decay. In particular, we provide a tight result for the smallest number of features achieving optimal minimax error rate.

Ocean dynamics plays a crucial role in driving global weather and climate patterns. Accurate and efficient modeling of ocean dynamics is essential for improved understanding of complex ocean circulation and processes, for predicting climate variations and their associated teleconnections, and for addressing the challenges of climate change. While great efforts have been made to improve numerical Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs), accurate forecasting of global oceanic variations for multi-year remains to be a long-standing challenge. Here, we introduce ORCA (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst), the first data-driven model predicting global ocean circulation from multi-year to decadal time scales. ORCA accurately simulates the three-dimensional circulations and dynamics of the global ocean with high physical consistency. Hindcasts of key oceanic variables demonstrate ORCA's remarkable prediction skills in predicting ocean variations compared with state-of-the-art numerical OGCMs and abilities in capturing occurrences of extreme events at the subsurface ocean and ENSO vertical patterns. These results demonstrate the potential of data-driven ocean models for providing cheap, efficient, and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction. Moreover, ORCA stably and faithfully emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for climate projections. The model will be available at https://github.com/OpenEarthLab/ORCA.

Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) are widely used to evaluate the propensity of a machine learning (ML) model to memorize an individual record and the privacy risk releasing the model poses. MIAs are commonly evaluated similarly to ML models: the MIA is performed on a test set of models trained on datasets unseen during training, which are sampled from a larger pool, $D_{eval}$. The MIA is evaluated across all datasets in this test set, and is thus evaluated across the distribution of samples from $D_{eval}$. While this was a natural extension of ML evaluation to MIAs, recent work has shown that a record's risk heavily depends on its specific dataset. For example, outliers are particularly vulnerable, yet an outlier in one dataset may not be one in another. The sources of randomness currently used to evaluate MIAs may thus lead to inaccurate individual privacy risk estimates. We propose a new, specific evaluation setup for MIAs against ML models, using weight initialization as the sole source of randomness. This allows us to accurately evaluate the risk associated with the release of a model trained on a specific dataset. Using SOTA MIAs, we empirically show that the risk estimates given by the current setup lead to many records being misclassified as low risk. We derive theoretical results which, combined with empirical evidence, suggest that the risk calculated in the current setup is an average of the risks specific to each sampled dataset, validating our use of weight initialization as the only source of randomness. Finally, we consider an MIA with a stronger adversary leveraging information about the target dataset to infer membership. Taken together, our results show that current MIA evaluation is averaging the risk across datasets leading to inaccurate risk estimates, and the risk posed by attacks leveraging information about the target dataset to be potentially underestimated.