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Trajectory Flow Matching with Applications to Clinical Time Series Modeling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Modeling stochastic and irregularly sampled time series is a challenging problem found in a wide range of applications, especially in medicine. Neural stochastic differential equations (Neural SDEs) are an attractive modeling technique for this problem, which parameterize the drift and diffusion terms of an SDE with neural networks. However, current algorithms for training Neural SDEs require backpropagation through the SDE dynamics, greatly limiting their scalability and stability. To address this, we propose Trajectory Flow Matching (TFM), which trains a Neural SDE in a simulation-free manner, bypassing backpropagation through the dynamics. TFM leverages the flow matching technique from generative modeling to model time series. In this work we first establish necessary conditions for TFM to learn time series data. Next, we present a reparameterization trick which improves training stability. Finally, we adapt TFM to the clinical time series setting, demonstrating improved performance on three clinical time series datasets both in terms of absolute performance and uncertainty prediction, a crucial parameter in this setting.


Shallow Diffuse: Robust and Invisible Watermarking through Low-Dimensional Subspaces in Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Watermarking is a crucial technique for identifying these AI-generated images and preventing their misuse. In this paper, we introduce Shallow Diffuse, a new watermarking technique that embeds robust and invisible watermarks into diffusion model outputs. Unlike existing approaches that integrate watermarking throughout the entire diffusion sampling process, Shallow Diffuse decouples these steps by leveraging the presence of a low-dimensional subspace in the image generation process. This method ensures that a substantial portion of the watermark lies in the null space of this subspace, effectively separating it from the image generation process. Our theoretical and empirical analyses show that this decoupling strategy greatly enhances the consistency of data generation and the detectability of the watermark. Extensive experiments further validate that our Shallow Diffuse outperforms existing watermarking methods in terms of robustness and consistency.


Diagnosis of Knee Osteoarthritis Using Bioimpedance and Deep Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diagnosing knee osteoarthritis (OA) early is crucial for managing symptoms and preventing further joint damage, ultimately improving patient outcomes and quality of life. In this paper, a bioimpedance-based diagnostic tool that combines precise hardware and deep learning for effective non-invasive diagnosis is proposed. system features a relay-based circuit and strategically placed electrodes to capture comprehensive bioimpedance data. The data is processed by a neural network model, which has been optimized using convolutional layers, dropout regularization, and the Adam optimizer. This approach achieves a 98% test accuracy, making it a promising tool for detecting knee osteoarthritis musculoskeletal disorders.


A Systematic Review of Machine Learning in Sports Betting: Techniques, Challenges, and Future Directions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The sports betting industry has experienced rapid growth, driven largely by technological advancements and the proliferation of online platforms. Machine learning (ML) has played a pivotal role in the transformation of this sector by enabling more accurate predictions, dynamic odds-setting, and enhanced risk management for both bookmakers and bettors. This systematic review explores various ML techniques, including support vector machines, random forests, and neural networks, as applied in different sports such as soccer, basketball, tennis, and cricket. These models utilize historical data, in-game statistics, and real-time information to optimize betting strategies and identify value bets, ultimately improving profitability. For bookmakers, ML facilitates dynamic odds adjustment and effective risk management, while bettors leverage data-driven insights to exploit market inefficiencies. This review also underscores the role of ML in fraud detection, where anomaly detection models are used to identify suspicious betting patterns. Despite these advancements, challenges such as data quality, real-time decision-making, and the inherent unpredictability of sports outcomes remain. Ethical concerns related to transparency and fairness are also of significant importance. Future research should focus on developing adaptive models that integrate multimodal data and manage risk in a manner akin to financial portfolios. This review provides a comprehensive examination of the current applications of ML in sports betting, and highlights both the potential and the limitations of these technologies.


Enhancing CTR Prediction in Recommendation Domain with Search Query Representation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many platforms, such as e-commerce websites, offer both search and recommendation services simultaneously to better meet users' diverse needs. Recommendation services suggest items based on user preferences, while search services allow users to search for items before providing recommendations. Since users and items are often shared between the search and recommendation domains, there is a valuable opportunity to enhance the recommendation domain by leveraging user preferences extracted from the search domain. Existing approaches either overlook the shift in user intention between these domains or fail to capture the significant impact of learning from users' search queries on understanding their interests. In this paper, we propose a framework that learns from user search query embeddings within the context of user preferences in the recommendation domain. Specifically, user search query sequences from the search domain are used to predict the items users will click at the next time point in the recommendation domain. Additionally, the relationship between queries and items is explored through contrastive learning. To address issues of data sparsity, the diffusion model is incorporated to infer positive items the user will select after searching with certain queries in a denoising manner, which is particularly effective in preventing false positives. Effectively extracting this information, the queries are integrated into click-through rate prediction in the recommendation domain. Experimental analysis demonstrates that our model outperforms state-of-the-art models in the recommendation domain.


What If the Input is Expanded in OOD Detection?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection aims to identify OOD inputs from unknown classes, which is important for the reliable deployment of machine learning models in the open world. Various scoring functions are proposed to distinguish it from in-distribution (ID) data. However, existing methods generally focus on excavating the discriminative information from a single input, which implicitly limits its representation dimension. In this work, we introduce a novel perspective, i.e., employing different common corruptions on the input space, to expand that. We reveal an interesting phenomenon termed confidence mutation, where the confidence of OOD data can decrease significantly under the corruptions, while the ID data shows a higher confidence expectation considering the resistance of semantic features. Based on that, we formalize a new scoring method, namely, Confidence aVerage (CoVer), which can capture the dynamic differences by simply averaging the scores obtained from different corrupted inputs and the original ones, making the OOD and ID distributions more separable in detection tasks. Extensive experiments and analyses have been conducted to understand and verify the effectiveness of CoVer.


LOCAL: Learning with Orientation Matrix to Infer Causal Structure from Time Series Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Discovering the underlying Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) from time series observational data is highly challenging due to the dynamic nature and complex nonlinear interactions between variables. Existing methods often struggle with inefficiency and the handling of high-dimensional data. To address these research gap, we propose LOCAL, a highly efficient, easy-to-implement, and constraint-free method for recovering dynamic causal structures. LOCAL is the first attempt to formulate a quasi-maximum likelihood-based score function for learning the dynamic DAG equivalent to the ground truth. On this basis, we propose two adaptive modules for enhancing the algebraic characterization of acyclicity with new capabilities: Asymptotic Causal Mask Learning (ACML) and Dynamic Graph Parameter Learning (DGPL). ACML generates causal masks using learnable priority vectors and the Gumbel-Sigmoid function, ensuring the creation of DAGs while optimizing computational efficiency. DGPL transforms causal learning into decomposed matrix products, capturing the dynamic causal structure of high-dimensional data and enhancing interpretability. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that LOCAL significantly outperforms existing methods, and highlight LOCAL's potential as a robust and efficient method for dynamic causal discovery. Our code will be available soon.


Addressing the Pitfalls of Image-Based Structural Health Monitoring: A Focus on False Positives, False Negatives, and Base Rate Bias

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study explores the limitations of image-based structural health monitoring (SHM) techniques in detecting structural damage. Leveraging machine learning and computer vision, image-based SHM offers a scalable and efficient alternative to manual inspections. However, its reliability is impacted by challenges such as false positives, false negatives, and environmental variability, particularly in low base rate damage scenarios. The Base Rate Bias plays a significant role, as low probabilities of actual damage often lead to misinterpretation of positive results. This study uses both Bayesian analysis and a frequentist approach to evaluate the precision of damage detection systems, revealing that even highly accurate models can yield misleading results when the occurrence of damage is rare. Strategies for mitigating these limitations are discussed, including hybrid systems that combine multiple data sources, human-in-the-loop approaches for critical assessments, and improving the quality of training data. These findings provide essential insights into the practical applicability of image-based SHM techniques, highlighting both their potential and their limitations for real-world infrastructure monitoring.


Self-Supervised Learning and Opportunistic Inference for Continuous Monitoring of Freezing of Gait in Parkinson's Disease

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive neurological disorder that impacts the quality of life significantly, making in-home monitoring of motor symptoms such as Freezing of Gait (FoG) critical. However, existing symptom monitoring technologies are power-hungry, rely on extensive amounts of labeled data, and operate in controlled settings. These shortcomings limit real-world deployment of the technology. This work presents LIFT-PD, a computationally-efficient self-supervised learning framework for real-time FoG detection. Our method combines self-supervised pre-training on unlabeled data with a novel differential hopping windowing technique to learn from limited labeled instances. An opportunistic model activation module further minimizes power consumption by selectively activating the deep learning module only during active periods. Extensive experimental results show that LIFT-PD achieves a 7.25% increase in precision and 4.4% improvement in accuracy compared to supervised models while using as low as 40% of the labeled training data used for supervised learning. Additionally, the model activation module reduces inference time by up to 67% compared to continuous inference. LIFT-PD paves the way for practical, energy-efficient, and unobtrusive in-home monitoring of PD patients with minimal labeling requirements.


Domain Specific Data Distillation and Multi-modal Embedding Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The challenge of creating domain-centric embeddings arises from the abundance of unstructured data and the scarcity of domain-specific structured data. Conventional embedding techniques often rely on either modality, limiting their applicability and efficacy. This paper introduces a novel modeling approach that leverages structured data to filter noise from unstructured data, resulting in embeddings with high precision and recall for domain-specific attribute prediction. The proposed model operates within a Hybrid Collaborative Filtering (HCF) framework, where generic entity representations are fine-tuned through relevant item prediction tasks. Our experiments, focusing on the cloud computing domain, demonstrate that HCF-based embeddings outperform AutoEncoder-based embeddings (using purely unstructured data), achieving a 28% lift in precision and an 11% lift in recall for domain-specific attribute prediction.