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Mining Tweets to Predict Future Bitcoin Price

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bitcoin has increased investment interests in people during the last decade. We have seen an increase in the number of posts on social media platforms about cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin. This project focuses on analyzing user tweet data in combination with Bitcoin price data to see the relevance between price fluctuations and the conversation between millions of people on Twitter. This study also exploits this relationship between user tweets and bitcoin prices to predict the future bitcoin price. We are utilizing novel techniques and methods to analyze the data and make price predictions.


Who's Gaming the System? A Causally-Motivated Approach for Detecting Strategic Adaptation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In many settings, machine learning models may be used to inform decisions that impact individuals or entities who interact with the model. Such entities, or agents, may game model decisions by manipulating their inputs to the model to obtain better outcomes and maximize some utility. We consider a multi-agent setting where the goal is to identify the "worst offenders:" agents that are gaming most aggressively. However, identifying such agents is difficult without knowledge of their utility function. Thus, we introduce a framework in which each agent's tendency to game is parameterized via a scalar. We show that this gaming parameter is only partially identifiable. By recasting the problem as a causal effect estimation problem where different agents represent different "treatments," we prove that a ranking of all agents by their gaming parameters is identifiable. We present empirical results in a synthetic data study validating the usage of causal effect estimation for gaming detection and show in a case study of diagnosis coding behavior in the U.S. that our approach highlights features associated with gaming.


Adversarial Sample-Based Approach for Tighter Privacy Auditing in Final Model-Only Scenarios

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Auditing Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent (DP-SGD) in the final model setting is challenging and often results in empirical lower bounds that are significantly looser than theoretical privacy guarantees. We introduce a novel auditing method that achieves tighter empirical lower bounds without additional assumptions by crafting worst-case adversarial samples through loss-based inputspace auditing. Our approach surpasses traditional canary-based heuristics and is effective in both white-box and black-box scenarios. Specifically, with a theoretical privacy budget of ε = 10.0, our method achieves empirical lower bounds of 6.68 in white-box settings and 4.51 in black-box settings, compared to the baseline of 4.11 for MNIST. Moreover, we demonstrate that significant privacy auditing results can be achieved using in-distribution (ID) samples as canaries, obtaining an empirical lower bound of 4.33 where traditional methods produce near-zero leakage detection. Our work offers a practical framework for reliable and accurate privacy auditing in differentially private machine learning.


Holistic Understanding of 3D Scenes as Universal Scene Description

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

3D scene understanding is a long-standing challenge in computer vision and a key component in enabling mixed reality, wearable computing, and embodied AI. Providing a solution to these applications requires a multifaceted approach that covers scene-centric, object-centric, as well as interaction-centric capabilities. While there exist numerous datasets approaching the former two problems, the task of understanding interactable and articulated objects is underrepresented and only partly covered by current works. In this work, we address this shortcoming and introduce (1) an expertly curated dataset in the Universal Scene Description (USD) format, featuring high-quality manual annotations, for instance, segmentation and articulation on 280 indoor scenes; (2) a learning-based model together with a novel baseline capable of predicting part segmentation along with a full specification of motion attributes, including motion type, articulated and interactable parts, and motion parameters; (3) a benchmark serving to compare upcoming methods for the task at hand. Overall, our dataset provides 8 types of annotations - object and part segmentations, motion types, movable and interactable parts, motion parameters, connectivity, and object mass annotations. With its broad and high-quality annotations, the data provides the basis for holistic 3D scene understanding models. All data is provided in the USD format, allowing interoperability and easy integration with downstream tasks. We provide open access to our dataset, benchmark, and method's source code.


A Theoretical Framework for Acoustic Neighbor Embeddings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper provides a theoretical framework for interpreting acoustic neighbor embeddings, which are representations of the phonetic content of variable-width audio or text in a fixed-dimensional embedding space. A probabilistic interpretation of the distances between embeddings is proposed, based on a general quantitative definition of phonetic similarity between words. This provides us a framework for understanding and applying the embeddings in a principled manner. Theoretical and empirical evidence to support an approximation of uniform cluster-wise isotropy are shown, which allows us to reduce the distances to simple Euclidean distances. Four experiments that validate the framework and demonstrate how it can be applied to diverse problems are described. Nearest-neighbor search between audio and text embeddings can give isolated word classification accuracy that is identical to that of finite state transducers (FSTs) for vocabularies as large as 500k. Embedding distances give accuracy with 0.5% point difference compared to phone edit distances in out-of-vocabulary word recovery, as well as producing clustering hierarchies identical to those derived from human listening experiments in English dialect clustering. The theoretical framework also allows us to use the embeddings to predict the expected confusion of device wake-up words. All source code and pretrained models are provided.


Predicting the Impact of Scope Changes on Project Cost and Schedule Using Machine Learning Techniques

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the dynamic landscape of project management, scope changes are an inevitable reality that can significantly impact project performance. These changes, whether initiated by stakeholders, external factors, or internal project dynamics, can lead to cost overruns and schedule delays. Accurately predicting the consequences of these changes is crucial for effective project control and informed decision-making. This study aims to develop predictive models to estimate the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule using machine learning techniques. The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing detailed information on project tasks, including the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), task type, productivity rate, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, task dependencies, scope change magnitude, and scope change timing. Multiple machine learning models are developed and evaluated to predict the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. These models include Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost. The dataset is split into training and testing sets, and the models are trained using the preprocessed data. Model robustness and generalization are assessed using cross-validation techniques. To evaluate the performance of models, we use Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R2. Residual plots are generated to assess the goodness of fit and identify any patterns or outliers. Hyperparameter tuning is performed to optimize the XGBoost model and improve its predictive accuracy. The study identifies the most influential project attributes in determining the magnitude of cost and schedule deviations caused by scope modifications. It is identified that productivity rate, scope change magnitude, task dependencies, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, and specific WBS elements are powerful predictors.


Improved Large Language Model Jailbreak Detection via Pretrained Embeddings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The adoption of large language models (LLMs) in many applications, from customer service chat bots and software de - velopment assistants to more capable agentic systems neces - sitates research into how to secure these systems. Attacks l ike prompt injection and jailbreaking attempt to elicit respon ses and actions from these models that are not compliant with the safety, privacy, or content policies of organizations u sing the model in their application. In order to counter abuse of LLMs for generating potentially harmful replies or taking u n-desirable actions, LLM owners must apply safeguards during training and integrate additional tools to block the LLM fro m generating text that abuses the model. Jailbreaking prompt s play a vital role in convincing an LLM to generate potentially harmful content, making it important to identify jai l-breaking attempts to block any further steps. In this work, w e propose a novel approach to detect jailbreak prompts based on pairing text embeddings well-suited for retrieval with t ra-ditional machine learning classification algorithms. Our a p-proach outperforms all publicly available methods from ope n source LLM security applications.


Research on Cervical Cancer p16/Ki-67 Immunohistochemical Dual-Staining Image Recognition Algorithm Based on YOLO

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The p16/Ki-67 dual staining method is a new approach for cervical cancer screening with high sensitivity and specificity. However, there are issues of mis-detection and inaccurate recognition when the YOLOv5s algorithm is directly applied to dual-stained cell images. This paper Proposes a novel cervical cancer dual-stained image recognition (DSIR-YOLO) model based on an YOLOv5. By fusing the Swin-Transformer module, GAM attention mechanism, multi-scale feature fusion, and EIoU loss function, the detection performance is significantly improved, with mAP@0.5 and mAP@0.5:0.95 reaching 92.6% and 70.5%, respectively. Compared with YOLOv5s in five-fold cross-validation, the accuracy, recall, mAP@0.5, and mAP@0.5:0.95 of the improved algorithm are increased by 2.3%, 4.1%, 4.3%, and 8.0%, respectively, with smaller variances and higher stability. Compared with other detection algorithms, DSIR-YOLO in this paper sacrifices some performance requirements to improve the network recognition effect. In addition, the influence of dataset quality on the detection results is studied. By controlling the sealing property of pixels, scale difference, unlabelled cells, and diagonal annotation, the model detection accuracy, recall, mAP@0.5, and mAP@0.5:0.95 are improved by 13.3%, 15.3%, 18.3%, and 30.5%, respectively.


Inference Scaling fLaws: The Limits of LLM Resampling with Imperfect Verifiers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.


Computational Methods for Breast Cancer Molecular Profiling through Routine Histopathology: A Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Precision medicine has become a central focus in breast cancer management, advancing beyond conventional methods to deliver more precise and individualized therapies. Traditionally, histopathology images have been used primarily for diagnostic purposes; however, they are now recognized for their potential in molecular profiling, which provides deeper insights into cancer prognosis and treatment response. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have enabled digital pathology to analyze histopathologic images for both targeted molecular and broader omic biomarkers, marking a pivotal step in personalized cancer care. These technologies offer the capability to extract various biomarkers such as genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic markers directly from the routine hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) stained images, which can support treatment decisions without the need for costly molecular assays. In this work, we provide a comprehensive review of AI-driven techniques for biomarker detection, with a focus on diverse omic biomarkers that allow novel biomarker discovery. Additionally, we analyze the major challenges faced in this field for robust algorithm development. These challenges highlight areas where further research is essential to bridge the gap between AI research and clinical application.