Accuracy
The Impact of Pseudo-Science in Financial Loans Risk Prediction
Scarone, Bruno, Baeza-Yates, Ricardo
We study the societal impact of pseudo-scientific assumptions for predicting the behavior of people in a straightforward application of machine learning to risk prediction in financial lending. This use case also exemplifies the impact of survival bias in loan return prediction. We analyze the models in terms of their accuracy and social cost, showing that the socially optimal model may not imply a significant accuracy loss for this downstream task. Our results are verified for commonly used learning methods and datasets. Our findings also show that there is a natural dynamic when training models that suffer survival bias where accuracy slightly deteriorates, and whose recall and precision improves with time. These results act as an illusion, leading the observer to believe that the system is getting better, when in fact the model is suffering from increasingly more unfairness and survival bias.
Generation of Synthetic Clinical Text: A Systematic Review
Alshaikhdeeb, Basel, Hemedan, Ahmed Abdelmonem, Ghosh, Soumyabrata, Balaur, Irina, Satagopam, Venkata
Generating clinical synthetic text represents an effective solution for common clinical NLP issues like sparsity and privacy. This paper aims to conduct a systematic review on generating synthetic medical free-text by formulating quantitative analysis to three research questions concerning (i) the purpose of generation, (ii) the techniques, and (iii) the evaluation methods. We searched PubMed, ScienceDirect, Web of Science, Scopus, IEEE, Google Scholar, and arXiv databases for publications associated with generating synthetic medical unstructured free-text. We have identified 94 relevant articles out of 1,398 collected ones. A great deal of attention has been given to the generation of synthetic medical text from 2018 onwards, where the main purpose of such a generation is towards text augmentation, assistive writing, corpus building, privacy-preserving, annotation, and usefulness. Transformer architectures were the main predominant technique used to generate the text, especially the GPTs. On the other hand, there were four main aspects of evaluation, including similarity, privacy, structure, and utility, where utility was the most frequent method used to assess the generated synthetic medical text. Although the generated synthetic medical text demonstrated a moderate possibility to act as real medical documents in different downstream NLP tasks, it has proven to be a great asset as augmented, complementary to the real documents, towards improving the accuracy and overcoming sparsity/undersampling issues. Yet, privacy is still a major issue behind generating synthetic medical text, where more human assessments are needed to check for the existence of any sensitive information. Despite that, advances in generating synthetic medical text will considerably accelerate the adoption of workflows and pipeline development, discarding the time-consuming legalities of data transfer.
The Impact of Feature Scaling In Machine Learning: Effects on Regression and Classification Tasks
Pinheiro, Joรฃo Manoel Herrera, de Oliveira, Suzana Vilas Boas, Silva, Thiago Henrique Segreto, Saraiva, Pedro Antonio Rabelo, de Souza, Enzo Ferreira, Godoy, Ricardo V., Ambrosio, Leonardo Andrรฉ, Becker, Marcelo
This research addresses the critical lack of comprehensive studies on feature scaling by systematically evaluating 12 scaling techniques - including several less common transformations - across 14 different Machine Learning algorithms and 16 datasets for classification and regression tasks. We meticulously analyzed impacts on predictive performance (using metrics such as accuracy, MAE, MSE, and $R^2$) and computational costs (training time, inference time, and memory usage). Key findings reveal that while ensemble methods (such as Random Forest and gradient boosting models like XGBoost, CatBoost and LightGBM) demonstrate robust performance largely independent of scaling, other widely used models such as Logistic Regression, SVMs, TabNet, and MLPs show significant performance variations highly dependent on the chosen scaler. This extensive empirical analysis, with all source code, experimental results, and model parameters made publicly available to ensure complete transparency and reproducibility, offers model-specific crucial guidance to practitioners on the need for an optimal selection of feature scaling techniques.
The surprising strength of weak classifiers for validating neural posterior estimates
Bansal, Vansh, Chen, Tianyu, Scott, James G.
Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) has emerged as a powerful approach for amortized Bayesian inference when the true posterior $p(ฮธ\mid y)$ is intractable or difficult to sample. But evaluating the accuracy of neural posterior estimates remains challenging, with existing methods suffering from major limitations. One appealing and widely used method is the classifier two-sample test (C2ST), where a classifier is trained to distinguish samples from the true posterior $p(ฮธ\mid y)$ versus the learned NPE approximation $q(ฮธ\mid y)$. Yet despite the appealing simplicity of the C2ST, its theoretical and practical reliability depend upon having access to a near-Bayes-optimal classifier -- a requirement that is rarely met and, at best, difficult to verify. Thus a major open question is: can a weak classifier still be useful for neural posterior validation? We show that the answer is yes. Building on the work of Hu and Lei, we present several key results for a conformal variant of the C2ST, which converts any trained classifier's scores -- even those of weak or over-fitted models -- into exact finite-sample p-values. We establish two key theoretical properties of the conformal C2ST: (i) finite-sample Type-I error control, and (ii) non-trivial power that degrades gently in tandem with the error of the trained classifier. The upshot is that even weak, biased, or overfit classifiers can still yield powerful and reliable tests. Empirically, the Conformal C2ST outperforms classical discriminative tests across a wide range of benchmarks. These results reveal the under appreciated strength of weak classifiers for validating neural posterior estimates, establishing the conformal C2ST as a practical, theoretically grounded diagnostic for modern simulation-based inference.
Risk In Context: Benchmarking Privacy Leakage of Foundation Models in Synthetic Tabular Data Generation
Byun, Jessup, Lin, Xiaofeng, Ward, Joshua, Cheng, Guang
Synthetic tabular data is essential for machine learning workflows, especially for expanding small or imbalanced datasets and enabling privacy-preserving data sharing. However, state-of-the-art generative models (GANs, VAEs, diffusion models) rely on large datasets with thousands of examples. In low-data settings, often the primary motivation for synthetic data, these models can overfit, leak sensitive records, and require frequent retraining. Recent work uses large pre-trained transformers to generate rows via in-context learning (ICL), which needs only a few seed examples and no parameter updates, avoiding retraining. But ICL repeats seed rows verbatim, introducing a new privacy risk that has only been studied in text. The severity of this risk in tabular synthesis-where a single row may identify a person-remains unclear. We address this gap with the first benchmark of three foundation models (GPT-4o-mini, LLaMA 3.3 70B, TabPFN v2) against four baselines on 35 real-world tables from health, finance, and policy. We evaluate statistical fidelity, downstream utility, and membership inference leakage. Results show foundation models consistently have the highest privacy risk. LLaMA 3.3 70B reaches up to 54 percentage points higher true-positive rate at 1% FPR than the safest baseline. GPT-4o-mini and TabPFN are also highly vulnerable. We plot the privacy-utility frontier and show that CTGAN and GPT-4o-mini offer better tradeoffs. A factorial study finds that three zero-cost prompt tweaks-small batch size, low temperature, and using summary statistics-can reduce worst-case AUC by 14 points and rare-class leakage by up to 39 points while maintaining over 90% fidelity. Our benchmark offers a practical guide for safer low-data synthesis with foundation models.
Towards Effective Open-set Graph Class-incremental Learning
Chen, Jiazhen, Ma, Zheng, Fu, Sichao, Feng, Mingbin, Wirjanto, Tony S., Ou, Weihua
Graph class-incremental learning (GCIL) allows graph neural networks (GNNs) to adapt to evolving graph analytical tasks by incrementally learning new class knowledge while retaining knowledge of old classes. Existing GCIL methods primarily focus on a closed-set assumption, where all test samples are presumed to belong to previously known classes. Such an assumption restricts their applicability in real-world scenarios, where unknown classes naturally emerge during inference, and are absent during training. In this paper, we explore a more challenging open-set graph class-incremental learning scenario with two intertwined challenges: catastrophic forgetting of old classes, which impairs the detection of unknown classes, and inadequate open-set recognition, which destabilizes the retention of learned knowledge. To address the above problems, a novel OGCIL framework is proposed, which utilizes pseudo-sample embedding generation to effectively mitigate catastrophic forgetting and enable robust detection of unknown classes. To be specific, a prototypical conditional variational autoencoder is designed to synthesize node embeddings for old classes, enabling knowledge replay without storing raw graph data. To handle unknown classes, we employ a mixing-based strategy to generate out-of-distribution (OOD) samples from pseudo in-distribution and current node embeddings. A novel prototypical hypersphere classification loss is further proposed, which anchors in-distribution embeddings to their respective class prototypes, while repelling OOD embeddings away. Instead of assigning all unknown samples into one cluster, our proposed objective function explicitly models them as outliers through prototype-aware rejection regions, ensuring a robust open-set recognition. Extensive experiments on five benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of OGCIL over existing GCIL and open-set GNN methods.
Model Compression Engine for Wearable Devices Skin Cancer Diagnosis
Delgado-Lรณpez, Jacob M., Seda-Hernandez, Andrea P., Guadalupe-Rosado, Juan D., Ramirez, Luis E. Fernandez, Giboyeaux-Camilo, Miguel, Lugo-Beauchamp, Wilfredo E.
Skin cancer is one of the most prevalent and preventable types of cancer, yet its early detection remains a challenge, particularly in resource-limited settings where access to specialized healthcare is scarce. This study proposes an AI-driven diagnostic tool optimized for embedded systems to address this gap. Using transfer learning with the MobileNetV2 architecture, the model was adapted for binary classification of skin lesions into "Skin Cancer" and "Other." The TensorRT framework was employed to compress and optimize the model for deployment on the NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano, balancing performance with energy efficiency. Comprehensive evaluations were conducted across multiple benchmarks, including model size, inference speed, throughput, and power consumption. The optimized models maintained their performance, achieving an F1-Score of 87.18% with a precision of 93.18% and recall of 81.91%. Post-compression results showed reductions in model size of up to 0.41, along with improvements in inference speed and throughput, and a decrease in energy consumption of up to 0.93 in INT8 precision. These findings validate the feasibility of deploying high-performing, energy-efficient diagnostic tools on resource-constrained edge devices. Beyond skin cancer detection, the methodologies applied in this research have broader applications in other medical diagnostics and domains requiring accessible, efficient AI solutions. This study underscores the potential of optimized AI systems to revolutionize healthcare diagnostics, thereby bridging the divide between advanced technology and underserved regions.
Explainable Vulnerability Detection in C/C++ Using Edge-Aware Graph Attention Networks
Haque, Radowanul, Ali, Aftab, McClean, Sally, Khan, Naveed
Detecting security vulnerabilities in source code remains challenging, particularly due to class imbalance in real-world datasets where vulnerable functions are under-represented. Existing learning-based methods often optimise for recall, leading to high false positive rates and reduced usability in development workflows. Furthermore, many approaches lack explainability, limiting their integration into security workflows. This paper presents ExplainVulD, a graph-based framework for vulnerability detection in C/C++ code. The method constructs Code Property Graphs and represents nodes using dual-channel embeddings that capture both semantic and structural information. These are processed by an edge-aware attention mechanism that incorporates edge-type embeddings to distinguish among program relations. To address class imbalance, the model is trained using class-weighted cross-entropy loss. ExplainVulD achieves a mean accuracy of 88.25 percent and an F1 score of 48.23 percent across 30 independent runs on the ReVeal dataset. These results represent relative improvements of 4.6 percent in accuracy and 16.9 percent in F1 score compared to the ReVeal model, a prior learning-based method. The framework also outperforms static analysis tools, with relative gains of 14.0 to 14.1 percent in accuracy and 132.2 to 201.2 percent in F1 score. Beyond improved detection performance, ExplainVulD produces explainable outputs by identifying the most influential code regions within each function, supporting transparency and trust in security triage.
Artificial Intelligence for Green Hydrogen Yield Prediction and Site Suitability using SHAP-Based Composite Index: Focus on Oman
Nwafor, Obumneme Zimuzor, Hooti, Mohammed Abdul Majeed Al
As nations seek sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels, green hydrogen has emerged as a promising strategic pathway toward decarbonisation, particularly in solar-rich arid regions. However, identifying optimal locations for hydrogen production requires the integration of complex environmental, atmospheric, and infrastructural factors, often compounded by limited availability of direct hydrogen yield data. This study presents a novel Artificial Intelligence (AI) framework for computing green hydrogen yield and site suitability index using mean absolute SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values. This framework consists of a multi-stage pipeline of unsupervised multi-variable clustering, supervised machine learning classifier and SHAP algorithm. The pipeline trains on an integrated meteorological, topographic and temporal dataset and the results revealed distinct spatial patterns of suitability and relative influence of the variables. With model predictive accuracy of 98%, the result also showed that water proximity, elevation and seasonal variation are the most influential factors determining green hydrogen site suitability in Oman with mean absolute shap values of 2.470891, 2.376296 and 1.273216 respectively. Given limited or absence of ground-truth yield data in many countries that have green hydrogen prospects and ambitions, this study offers an objective and reproducible alternative to subjective expert weightings, thus allowing the data to speak for itself and potentially discover novel latent groupings without pre-imposed assumptions. This study offers industry stakeholders and policymakers a replicable and scalable tool for green hydrogen infrastructure planning and other decision making in data-scarce regions.
Advanced U-Net Architectures with CNN Backbones for Automated Lung Cancer Detection and Segmentation in Chest CT Images
Golkarieh, Alireza, Kiashemshaki, Kiana, Boroujeni, Sajjad Rezvani, Isakan, Nasibeh Asadi
This study investigates the effectiveness of U-Net architectures integrated with various convolutional neural network (CNN) backbones for automated lung cancer detection and segmentation in chest CT images, addressing the critical need for accurate diagnostic tools in clinical settings. A balanced dataset of 832 chest CT images (416 cancerous and 416 non-cancerous) was preprocessed using Contrast Limited Adaptive Histogram Equalization (CLAHE) and resized to 128x128 pixels. U-Net models were developed with three CNN backbones: ResNet50, VGG16, and Xception, to segment lung regions. After segmentation, CNN-based classifiers and hybrid models combining CNN feature extraction with traditional machine learning classifiers (Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting) were evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation. Metrics included accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, Dice coefficient, and ROC-AUC. U-Net with ResNet50 achieved the best performance for cancerous lungs (Dice: 0.9495, Accuracy: 0.9735), while U-Net with VGG16 performed best for non-cancerous segmentation (Dice: 0.9532, Accuracy: 0.9513). For classification, the CNN model using U-Net with Xception achieved 99.1 percent accuracy, 99.74 percent recall, and 99.42 percent F1-score. The hybrid CNN-SVM-Xception model achieved 96.7 percent accuracy and 97.88 percent F1-score. Compared to prior methods, our framework consistently outperformed existing models. In conclusion, combining U-Net with advanced CNN backbones provides a powerful method for both segmentation and classification of lung cancer in CT scans, supporting early diagnosis and clinical decision-making.