Accuracy
Sandbagging in a Simple Survival Bandit Problem
Dyer, Joel, Ornia, Daniel Jarne, Bishop, Nicholas, Calinescu, Anisoara, Wooldridge, Michael
Evaluating the safety of frontier AI systems is an increasingly important concern, helping to measure the capabilities of such models and identify risks before deployment. However, it has been recognised that if AI agents are aware that they are being evaluated, such agents may deliberately hide dangerous capabilities or intentionally demonstrate suboptimal performance in safety-related tasks in order to be released and to avoid being deactivated or retrained. Such strategic deception - often known as "sandbagging" - threatens to undermine the integrity of safety evaluations. For this reason, it is of value to identify methods that enable us to distinguish behavioural patterns that demonstrate a true lack of capability from behavioural patterns that are consistent with sandbagging. In this paper, we develop a simple model of strategic deception in sequential decision-making tasks, inspired by the recently developed survival bandit framework. We demonstrate theoretically that this problem induces sandbagging behaviour in optimal rational agents, and construct a statistical test to distinguish between sandbagging and incompetence from sequences of test scores. In simulation experiments, we investigate the reliability of this test in allowing us to distinguish between such behaviours in bandit models. This work aims to establish a potential avenue for developing robust statistical procedures for use in the science of frontier model evaluations.
Conservative Decisions with Risk Scores
Wei, Yishu, Lee, Wen-Yee, Quaye, George Ekow, Su, Xiaogang
In binary classification applications, conservative decision-making that allows for abstention can be advantageous. To this end, we introduce a novel approach that determines the optimal cutoff interval for risk scores, which can be directly available or derived from fitted models. Within this interval, the algorithm refrains from making decisions, while outside the interval, classification accuracy is maximized. Our approach is inspired by support vector machines (SVM), but differs in that it minimizes the classification margin rather than maximizing it. We provide the theoretical optimal solution to this problem, which holds important practical implications. Our proposed method not only supports conservative decision-making but also inherently results in a risk-coverage curve. Together with the area under the curve (AUC), this curve can serve as a comprehensive performance metric for evaluating and comparing classifiers, akin to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. To investigate and illustrate our approach, we conduct both simulation studies and a real-world case study in the context of diagnosing prostate cancer.
Fair Classification by Direct Intervention on Operating Characteristics
We develop new classifiers under group fairness in the attribute-aware setting for binary classification with multiple group fairness constraints (e.g., demographic parity (DP), equalized odds (EO), and predictive parity (PP)). We propose a novel approach, applicable to linear fractional constraints, based on directly intervening on the operating characteristics of a pre-trained base classifier, by (i) identifying optimal operating characteristics using the base classifier's group-wise ROC convex hulls and (ii) post-processing the base classifier to match those targets. As practical post-processors, we consider randomizing a mixture of group-wise thresholding rules subject to minimizing the expected number of interventions. We further extend our approach to handle multiple protected attributes and multiple linear fractional constraints. On standard datasets (COMPAS and ACSIncome), our methods simultaneously satisfy approximate DP, EO, and PP with few interventions and a near-oracle drop in accuracy; comparing favorably to previous methods.
Are Robust LLM Fingerprints Adversarially Robust?
Nasery, Anshul, Contente, Edoardo, Kaz, Alkin, Viswanath, Pramod, Oh, Sewoong
Model fingerprinting has emerged as a promising paradigm for claiming model ownership. However, robustness evaluations of these schemes have mostly focused on benign perturbations such as incremental fine-tuning, model merging, and prompting. Lack of systematic investigations into {\em adversarial robustness} against a malicious model host leaves current systems vulnerable. To bridge this gap, we first define a concrete, practical threat model against model fingerprinting. We then take a critical look at existing model fingerprinting schemes to identify their fundamental vulnerabilities. Based on these, we develop adaptive adversarial attacks tailored for each vulnerability, and demonstrate that these can bypass model authentication completely for ten recently proposed fingerprinting schemes while maintaining high utility of the model for the end users. Our work encourages fingerprint designers to adopt adversarial robustness by design. We end with recommendations for future fingerprinting methods.
AttriGen: Automated Multi-Attribute Annotation for Blood Cell Datasets
Houmaidi, Walid, Sabiri, Youssef, Iguenfer, Fatima Zahra, Abouaomar, Amine
Abstract--We introduce AttriGen, a novel framework for automated, fine-grained multi-attribute annotation in computer vision, with a particular focus on cell microscopy where multi-attribute classification remains underrepresented compared to traditional cell type categorization. Using two complementary datasets: the Peripheral Blood Cell (PBC) dataset containing eight distinct cell types and the WBC Attribute Dataset (WBCAtt) that contains their corresponding 11 morphological attributes, we propose a dual-model architecture that combines a CNN for cell type classification, as well as a Vision Transformer (ViT) for multi-attribute classification achieving a new benchmark of 94.62% accuracy. Our experiments demonstrate that AttriGen significantly enhances model interpretability and offers substantial time and cost efficiency relative to conventional full-scale human annotation. Thus, our framework establishes a new paradigm that can be extended to other computer vision classification tasks by effectively automating the expansion of multi-attribute labels. Early diagnosis hinges on microscopic review of blood smears, a task that is slow, labor-intensive, and increasingly hampered by shortages of laboratory experts [2], [3].
CEAID: Benchmark of Multilingual Machine-Generated Text Detection Methods for Central European Languages
Machine-generated text detection, as an important task, is predominantly focused on English in research. This makes the existing detectors almost unusable for non-English languages, relying purely on cross-lingual transferability. There exist only a few works focused on any of Central European languages, leaving the transferability towards these languages rather unexplored. We fill this gap by providing the first benchmark of detection methods focused on this region, while also providing comparison of train-languages combinations to identify the best performing ones. We focus on multi-domain, multi-generator, and multilingual evaluation, pinpointing the differences of individual aspects, as well as adversarial robustness of detection methods. Supervised finetuned detectors in the Central European languages are found the most performant in these languages as well as the most resistant against obfuscation.
The Media Bias Detector: A Framework for Annotating and Analyzing the News at Scale
Haider, Samar, Tohidi, Amir, Wang, Jenny S., Dรถrr, Timothy, Rothschild, David M., Callison-Burch, Chris, Watts, Duncan J.
Mainstream news organizations shape public perception not only directly through the articles they publish but also through the choices they make about which topics to cover (or ignore) and how to frame the issues they do decide to cover. However, measuring these subtle forms of media bias at scale remains a challenge. Here, we introduce a large, ongoing (from January 1, 2024 to present), near real-time dataset and computational framework developed to enable systematic study of selection and framing bias in news coverage. Our pipeline integrates large language models (LLMs) with scalable, near-real-time news scraping to extract structured annotations -- including political lean, tone, topics, article type, and major events -- across hundreds of articles per day. We quantify these dimensions of coverage at multiple levels -- the sentence level, the article level, and the publisher level -- expanding the ways in which researchers can analyze media bias in the modern news landscape. In addition to a curated dataset, we also release an interactive web platform for convenient exploration of these data. Together, these contributions establish a reusable methodology for studying media bias at scale, providing empirical resources for future research. Leveraging the breadth of the corpus over time and across publishers, we also present some examples (focused on the 150,000+ articles examined in 2024) that illustrate how this novel data set can reveal insightful patterns in news coverage and bias, supporting academic research and real-world efforts to improve media accountability.
Unsupervised Detection of Spatiotemporal Anomalies in PMU Data Using Transformer-Based BiGAN
Hossain, Muhammad Imran, Solanki, Jignesh, Solanki, Sarika Khushlani
Ensuring power grid resilience requires the timely and unsupervised detection of anomalies in synchrophasor data streams. We introduce T-BiGAN, a novel framework that integrates window-attention Transformers within a bidirectional Generative Adversarial Network (BiGAN) to address this challenge. Its self-attention encoder-decoder architecture captures complex spatio-temporal dependencies across the grid, while a joint discriminator enforces cycle consistency to align the learned latent space with the true data distribution. Anomalies are flagged in real-time using an adaptive score that combines reconstruction error, latent space drift, and discriminator confidence. Evaluated on a realistic hardware-in-the-loop PMU benchmark, T-BiGAN achieves an ROC-AUC of 0.95 and an average precision of 0.996, significantly outperforming leading supervised and unsupervised methods. It shows particular strength in detecting subtle frequency and voltage deviations, demonstrating its practical value for live, wide-area monitoring without relying on manually labeled fault data.
Machine Learning Algorithms for Improving Black Box Optimization Solvers
Kimiaei, Morteza, Kungurtsev, Vyacheslav
Black-box optimization (BBO) addresses problems where objectives are accessible only through costly queries without gradients or explicit structure. Classical derivative-free methods -- line search, direct search, and model-based solvers such as Bayesian optimization -- form the backbone of BBO, yet often struggle in high-dimensional, noisy, or mixed-integer settings. Recent advances use machine learning (ML) and reinforcement learning (RL) to enhance BBO: ML provides expressive surrogates, adaptive updates, meta-learning portfolios, and generative models, while RL enables dynamic operator configuration, robustness, and meta-optimization across tasks. This paper surveys these developments, covering representative algorithms such as NNs with the modular model-based optimization framework (mlrMBO), zeroth-order adaptive momentum methods (ZO-AdaMM), automated BBO (ABBO), distributed block-wise optimization (DiBB), partition-based Bayesian optimization (SPBOpt), the transformer-based optimizer (B2Opt), diffusion-model-based BBO, surrogate-assisted RL for differential evolution (Surr-RLDE), robust BBO (RBO), coordinate-ascent model-based optimization with relative entropy (CAS-MORE), log-barrier stochastic gradient descent (LB-SGD), policy improvement with black-box (PIBB), and offline Q-learning with Mamba backbones (Q-Mamba). We also review benchmark efforts such as the NeurIPS 2020 BBO Challenge and the MetaBox framework. Overall, we highlight how ML and RL transform classical inexact solvers into more scalable, robust, and adaptive frameworks for real-world optimization.
Calibrating Verbalized Confidence with Self-Generated Distractors
Wang, Victor, Stengel-Eskin, Elias
Calibrated confidence estimates are necessary for large language model (LLM) outputs to be trusted by human users. While LLMs can express their confidence in human-interpretable ways, verbalized LLM-generated confidence scores have empirically been found to be miscalibrated, reporting high confidence on instances with low accuracy and thereby harming trust and safety. We hypothesize that this overconfidence often stems from a given LLM's heightened suggestibility when faced with claims that it encodes little information about; we empirically validate this hypothesis, finding more suggestibility on lower-accuracy claims. To further improve calibration, we leverage generator-validator disagreement, augmenting normalized validator confidence with a consistency-based estimate of generator confidence. Users often rely on information obtained from these models to make important decisions, but the information is not always accurate. Thus, we seek to qualify LLM responses with confidence estimates that are calibrated, i.e. match the probability of correctness. Users and agentic frameworks often use LLMs in a zero-shot manner without task-specific tuning (Manakul et al., 2023; Geng et al., 2024; Feng et al., 2024; Shorinwa et al., 2025), motivating the development of confidence estimation methods that work in off-the-shelf settings - both gray-box settings with logit access, and black-box settings with only textual input and output. In these settings, verbalized confidence is a simple and commonly-used approach that prompts the model to report its confidence in an answer (Lin et al., 2022; Xiong et al., 2024; Wei et al., 2024). For brevity, we use verbalized confidence as a blanket term for (1) asking the model to decode a numerical confidence like "80%" (Tian et al., 2023) and (2) asking the model whether an answer is correct and taking P(True) (Kadavath et al., 2022). V erbalized confidence is appealing for several reasons, including that it resembles one way humans express confidence, making it easy to interpret and integrate into decision-theoretic frameworks (Sun et al., 2025; Steyvers et al., 2025). However, verbalized confidence has several drawbacks. First, it empirically tends to exhibit overconfidence (Tian et al., 2023; Xiong et al., 2024; Wei et al., 2024; Xu et al., 2025); Figure 1 (left) shows that verbalized confidence scores generally outstrip average accuracy within a confidence bin. For each bar, we label the number of instances whose confidence falls in the interval and we darken larger bins. In other words, no rejection threshold can be chosen to reject a high proportion of false claims.