Model evaluation metrics are used to assess goodness of fit between model and data, to compare different models, in the context of model selection, and to predict how predictions (associated with a specific model and data set) are expected to be accurate. Confidence intervals are used to assess how reliable a statistical estimate is. Wide confidence intervals mean that your model is poor (and it is worth investigating other models), or that your data is very noisy if confidence intervals don't improve by changing the model (that is, testing a different theoretical statistical distribution for your observations.) Modern confidence intervals are model-free, data -driven: click here to see how to compute them. A more general framework to assess and reduce sources of variance is called analysis of variance.

After you make predictions, you need to know if they are any good. There are standard measures that we can use to summarize how good a set of predictions actually are. Knowing how good a set of predictions is, allows you to make estimates about how good a given machine learning model of your problem, In this tutorial, you will discover how to implement four standard prediction evaluation metrics from scratch in Python. How to implement and interpret a confusion matrix. How to implement mean absolute error for regression.

Analytics is about getting your team the data insights it needs to build better products and make the right decisions for your company. But if your team can't understand that data, then this is all for naught. Software like Amplitude can make your data easy to understand, but each member of your team still needs basic data skills to get the most value out of what they're looking at. These skills can help your team, regardless of whether that's in product or marketing or sales, interpret the data as it comes in. It also gives them the skills to work with your data scientists to propose new ideas for your product, as well as the confidence to work alongside them to improve the business.

Sparsity-based subspace clustering algorithms have attracted significant attention thanks to their excellent performance in practical applications. A prominent example is the sparse subspace clustering (SSC) algorithm by Elhamifar and Vidal, which performs spectral clustering based on an adjacency matrix obtained by sparsely representing each data point in terms of all the other data points via the Lasso. When the number of data points is large or the dimension of the ambient space is high, the computational complexity of SSC quickly becomes prohibitive. Dyer et al. observed that SSC-OMP obtained by replacing the Lasso by the greedy orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP) algorithm results in significantly lower computational complexity, while often yielding comparable performance. The central goal of this paper is an analytical performance characterization of SSC-OMP for noisy data. Moreover, we introduce and analyze the SSC-MP algorithm, which employs matching pursuit (MP) in lieu of OMP. Both SSC-OMP and SSC-MP are proven to succeed even when the subspaces intersect and when the data points are contaminated by severe noise. The clustering conditions we obtain for SSC-OMP and SSC-MP are similar to those for SSC and for the thresholding-based subspace clustering (TSC) algorithm due to Heckel and B\"olcskei. Analytical results in combination with numerical results indicate that both SSC-OMP and SSC-MP with a data-dependent stopping criterion automatically detect the dimensions of the subspaces underlying the data. Moreover, experiments on synthetic and real data show that SSC-MP compares very favorably to SSC, SSC-OMP, TSC, and the nearest subspace neighbor (NSN) algorithm, both in terms of clustering performance and running time. In addition, we find that, in contrast to SSC-OMP, the performance of SSC-MP is very robust with respect to the choice of parameters in the stopping criteria.

Multiple instance learning (MIL) is a form of weakly supervised learning where training instances are arranged in sets, called bags, and a label is provided for the entire bag. This formulation is gaining interest because it naturally fits various problems and allows to leverage weakly labeled data. Consequently, it has been used in diverse application fields such as computer vision and document classification. However, learning from bags raises important challenges that are unique to MIL. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of the characteristics which define and differentiate the types of MIL problems. Until now, these problem characteristics have not been formally identified and described. As a result, the variations in performance of MIL algorithms from one data set to another are difficult to explain. In this paper, MIL problem characteristics are grouped into four broad categories: the composition of the bags, the types of data distribution, the ambiguity of instance labels, and the task to be performed. Methods specialized to address each category are reviewed. Then, the extent to which these characteristics manifest themselves in key MIL application areas are described. Finally, experiments are conducted to compare the performance of 16 state-of-the-art MIL methods on selected problem characteristics. This paper provides insight on how the problem characteristics affect MIL algorithms, recommendations for future benchmarking and promising avenues for research.

New artificial intelligence software designed to spot new child sexual abuse media online could help police catch child abusers. The toolkit, described in a paper published in Digital Investigation, automatically detects new child sexual abuse photos and videos in online peer-to-peer networks. The research behind this technology was conducted in the international research project iCOP - Identifying and Catching Originators in P2P Networks - founded by the European Commission Safer Internet Program by researchers at Lancaster University, the German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI), and University College Cork, Ireland. There are hundreds of searches for child abuse images every second worldwide, resulting in hundreds of thousands of child sexual abuse images and videos being shared every year. The people who produce child sexual abuse media are often abusers themselves - the US National Center for Missing and Exploited Children found that 16 percent of the people who possess such media had directly and physically abused children.

Computational approaches to drug discovery can reduce the time and cost associated with experimental assays and enable the screening of novel chemotypes. Structure-based drug design methods rely on scoring functions to rank and predict binding affinities and poses. The ever-expanding amount of protein-ligand binding and structural data enables the use of deep machine learning techniques for protein-ligand scoring. We describe convolutional neural network (CNN) scoring functions that take as input a comprehensive 3D representation of a protein-ligand interaction. A CNN scoring function automatically learns the key features of protein-ligand interactions that correlate with binding. We train and optimize our CNN scoring functions to discriminate between correct and incorrect binding poses and known binders and non-binders. We find that our CNN scoring function outperforms the AutoDock Vina scoring function when ranking poses both for pose prediction and virtual screening.

"We are to admit no more causes of natural things than such as are both true and sufficient to explain their appearances." "When you have two competing theories that make exactly the same predictions, the simpler one is the better." One famous example of Occam's Razor in action is found in conspiracy theories surrounding the NASA moon landings. Many conspiracy theorists believe that the first Moon Landing was staged and filmed in a studio, part of an elaborate hoax. Their justification relies upon many twisted and convoluted theories, whereas the NASA argument is fairly straightforward.

Clustering is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. Lloyd's algorithm, proposed in 1957, is still possibly the most widely used clustering algorithm in practice due to its simplicity and empirical performance. However, there has been little theoretical investigation on the statistical and computational guarantees of Lloyd's algorithm. This paper is an attempt to bridge this gap between practice and theory. We investigate the performance of Lloyd's algorithm on clustering sub-Gaussian mixtures. Under an appropriate initialization for labels or centers, we show that Lloyd's algorithm converges to an exponentially small clustering error after an order of $\log n$ iterations, where $n$ is the sample size. The error rate is shown to be minimax optimal. For the two-mixture case, we only require the initializer to be slightly better than random guess. In addition, we extend the Lloyd's algorithm and its analysis to community detection and crowdsourcing, two problems that have received a lot of attention recently in statistics and machine learning. Two variants of Lloyd's algorithm are proposed respectively for community detection and crowdsourcing. On the theoretical side, we provide statistical and computational guarantees of the two algorithms, and the results improve upon some previous signal-to-noise ratio conditions in literature for both problems. Experimental results on simulated and real data sets demonstrate competitive performance of our algorithms to the state-of-the-art methods.

Heart diseases constitute a global health burden, and the problem is exacerbated by the error-prone nature of listening to and interpreting heart sounds. This motivates the development of automated classification to screen for abnormal heart sounds. Existing machine learning-based systems achieve accurate classification of heart sound recordings but rely on expert features that have not been thoroughly evaluated on noisy recordings. Here we propose a segmental convolutional neural network architecture that achieves automatic feature learning from noisy heart sound recordings. Our experiments show that our best model, trained on noisy recording segments acquired with an existing hidden semi-markov model-based approach, attains a classification accuracy of 87.5% on the 2016 PhysioNet/CinC Challenge dataset, compared to the 84.6% accuracy of the state-of-the-art statistical classifier trained and evaluated on the same dataset. Our results indicate the potential of using neural network-based methods to increase the accuracy of automated classification of heart sound recordings for improved screening of heart diseases.