MPP infections show an endemic transmission pattern with cyclic epidemics every 3-5 years [4, 5], which increases the rate of morbidity, mortality, as well as the cost of healthcare in society. Although most MPP infections in children are known as mild and self-limiting, some cases need hospitalization, even in rare cases, MPP can cause extrapulmonary manifestations, including neurologic, dermatologic, hematologic and cardiac syndromes which can result in hospitalization and death [6, 7]. Macrolide antibiotics are commonly used drugs for the treatment of MPP infection. With the widespread or inappropriate use of antibiotics, and has become an emerging threat worldwide [8, 9, 10], especially in Asia in recent years [11, 12, 13]. Artificial intelligence methods have emerged as a potentially powerful tool to aid in diagnosis and management of diseases, mimicking and perhaps even augmenting the clinical decision-making of human physicians [14]. Due to the high infection rate and severe sequelae of MPP in children patients, there may be a crucial role for AI approaches for the rapid diagnosis based on the basic routine inspections, including demographics and clinical presentations.

Algorithmic risk assessments hold the promise of greatly advancing accurate decision-making, but in practice, multiple real-world examples have been shown to distribute errors disproportionately across demographic groups. In this paper, we characterize why error disparities arise in the first place. We show that predictive uncertainty often leads classifiers to systematically disadvantage groups with lower-mean outcomes, assigning them smaller true and false positive rates than their higher-mean counterparts. This can occur even when prediction is group-blind. We prove that to avoid these error imbalances, individuals in lower-mean groups must either be over-represented among positive classifications or be assigned more accurate predictions than those in higher-mean groups. We focus on the latter condition as a solution to bridge error rate divides and show that data acquisition for low-mean groups can increase access to opportunity. We call the strategy "affirmative information" and compare it to traditional affirmative action in the classification task of identifying creditworthy borrowers.

We consider learning to optimize a classification metric defined by a black-box function of the confusion matrix. Such black-box learning settings are ubiquitous, for example, when the learner only has query access to the metric of interest, or in noisy-label and domain adaptation applications where the learner must evaluate the metric via performance evaluation using a small validation sample. Our approach is to adaptively learn example weights on the training dataset such that the resulting weighted objective best approximates the metric on the validation sample. We show how to model and estimate the example weights and use them to iteratively post-shift a pre-trained class probability estimator to construct a classifier. We also analyze the resulting procedure's statistical properties. Experiments on various label noise, domain shift, and fair classification setups confirm that our proposal is better than the individual state-of-the-art baselines for each application.

Motivation: Traditional image attribution methods struggle to satisfactorily explain predictions of neural networks. Prediction explanation is important, especially in the medical imaging, for avoiding the unintended consequences of deploying AI systems when false positive predictions can impact patient care. Thus, there is a pressing need to develop improved models for model explainability and introspection. Specific Problem: A new approach is to transform input images to increase or decrease features which cause the prediction. However, current approaches are difficult to implement as they are monolithic or rely on GANs. These hurdles prevent wide adoption. Our approach: Given an arbitrary classifier, we propose a simple autoencoder and gradient update (Latent Shift) that can transform the latent representation of an input image to exaggerate or curtail the features used for prediction. We use this method to study chest X-ray classifiers and evaluate their performance. We conduct a reader study with two radiologists assessing 240 chest X-ray predictions to identify which ones are false positives (half are) using traditional attribution maps or our proposed method. Results: We found low overlap with ground truth pathology masks for models with reasonably high accuracy. However, the results from our reader study indicate that these models are generally looking at the correct features. We also found that the Latent Shift explanation allows a user to have more confidence in true positive predictions compared to traditional approaches (0.15$\pm$0.95 in a 5 point scale with p=0.01) with only a small increase in false positive predictions (0.04$\pm$1.06 with p=0.57). Accompanying webpage: https://mlmed.org/gifsplanation Source code: https://github.com/mlmed/gifsplanation

Generalization is a central problem in Machine Learning. Indeed most prediction methods require careful calibration of hyperparameters usually carried out on a hold-out \textit{validation} dataset to achieve generalization. The main goal of this paper is to introduce a novel approach to achieve generalization without any data splitting, which is based on a new risk measure which directly quantifies a model's tendency to overfit. To fully understand the intuition and advantages of this new approach, we illustrate it in the simple linear regression model ($Y=X\beta+\xi$) where we develop a new criterion. We highlight how this criterion is a good proxy for the true generalization risk. Next, we derive different procedures which tackle several structures simultaneously (correlation, sparsity,...). Noticeably, these procedures \textbf{concomitantly} train the model and calibrate the hyperparameters. In addition, these procedures can be implemented via classical gradient descent methods when the criterion is differentiable w.r.t. the hyperparameters. Our numerical experiments reveal that our procedures are computationally feasible and compare favorably to the popular approach (Ridge, LASSO and Elastic-Net combined with grid-search cross-validation) in term of generalization. They also outperform the baseline on two additional tasks: estimation and support recovery of $\beta$. Moreover, our procedures do not require any expertise for the calibration of the initial parameters which remain the same for all the datasets we experimented on.

Subsequence-based time series classification algorithms provide accurate and interpretable models, but training these models is extremely computation intensive. The asymptotic time complexity of subsequence-based algorithms remains a higher-order polynomial, because these algorithms are based on exhaustive search for highly discriminative subsequences. Pattern sampling has been proposed as an effective alternative to mitigate the pattern explosion phenomenon. Therefore, we employ pattern sampling to extract discriminative features from discretized time series data. A weighted trie is created based on the discretized time series data to sample highly discriminative patterns. These sampled patterns are used to identify the shapelets which are used to transform the time series classification problem into a feature-based classification problem. Finally, a classification model can be trained using any off-the-shelf algorithm. Creating a pattern sampler requires a small number of patterns to be evaluated compared to an exhaustive search as employed by previous approaches. Compared to previously proposed algorithms, our approach requires considerably less computational and memory resources. Experiments demonstrate how the proposed approach fares in terms of classification accuracy and runtime performance.

Computer-aided detection (CAD) of benign and malignant breast lesions becomes increasingly essential in breast ultrasound (US) imaging. The CAD systems rely on imaging features identified by the medical experts for their performance, whereas deep learning (DL) methods automatically extract features from the data. The challenge of the DL is the insufficiency of breast US images available to train the DL models. Here, we present an ensemble transfer learning model to classify benign and malignant breast tumors using B-mode breast US (B-US) and strain elastography breast US (SE-US) images. This model combines semantic features from AlexNet & ResNet models to classify benign from malignant tumors. We use both B-US and SE-US images to train the model and classify the tumors. We retrospectively gathered 85 patients' data, with 42 benign and 43 malignant cases confirmed with the biopsy. Each patient had multiple B-US and their corresponding SE-US images, and the total dataset contained 261 B-US images and 261 SE-US images. Experimental results show that our ensemble model achieves a sensitivity of 88.89% and specificity of 91.10%. These diagnostic performances of the proposed method are equivalent to or better than manual identification. Thus, our proposed ensemble learning method would facilitate detecting early breast cancer, reliably improving patient care.

DNA sequencing is becoming increasingly commonplace, both in medical and direct-to-consumer settings. To promote discovery, collected genomic data is often de-identified and shared, either in public repositories, such as OpenSNP, or with researchers through access-controlled repositories. However, recent studies have suggested that genomic data can be effectively matched to high-resolution three-dimensional face images, which raises a concern that the increasingly ubiquitous public face images can be linked to shared genomic data, thereby re-identifying individuals in the genomic data. While these investigations illustrate the possibility of such an attack, they assume that those performing the linkage have access to extremely well-curated data. Given that this is unlikely to be the case in practice, it calls into question the pragmatic nature of the attack. As such, we systematically study this re-identification risk from two perspectives: first, we investigate how successful such linkage attacks can be when real face images are used, and second, we consider how we can empower individuals to have better control over the associated re-identification risk. We observe that the true risk of re-identification is likely substantially smaller for most individuals than prior literature suggests. In addition, we demonstrate that the addition of a small amount of carefully crafted noise to images can enable a controlled trade-off between re-identification success and the quality of shared images, with risk typically significantly lowered even with noise that is imperceptible to humans.

Causal inference relies on two fundamental assumptions: ignorability and positivity. We study causal inference when the true confounder value can be expressed as a function of the observed data; we call this setting estimation with functional confounders (EFC). In this setting, ignorability is satisfied, however positivity is violated, and causal inference is impossible in general. We consider two scenarios where causal effects are estimable. First, we discuss interventions on a part of the treatment called functional interventions and a sufficient condition for effect estimation of these interventions called functional positivity. Second, we develop conditions for nonparametric effect estimation based on the gradient fields of the functional confounder and the true outcome function. To estimate effects under these conditions, we develop Level-set Orthogonal Descent Estimation (LODE). Further, we prove error bounds on LODE's effect estimates, evaluate our methods on simulated and real data, and empirically demonstrate the value of EFC.

Training and evaluation of fair classifiers is a challenging problem. This is partly due to the fact that most fairness metrics of interest depend on both the sensitive attribute information and label information of the data points. In many scenarios it is not possible to collect large datasets with such information. An alternate approach that is commonly used is to separately train an attribute classifier on data with sensitive attribute information, and then use it later in the ML pipeline to evaluate the bias of a given classifier. While such decoupling helps alleviate the problem of demographic scarcity, it raises several natural questions such as: how should the attribute classifier be trained?, and how should one use a given attribute classifier for accurate bias estimation? In this work we study this question from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We first experimentally demonstrate that the test accuracy of the attribute classifier is not always correlated with its effectiveness in bias estimation for a downstream model. In order to further investigate this phenomenon, we analyze an idealized theoretical model and characterize the structure of the optimal classifier. Our analysis has surprising and counter-intuitive implications where in certain regimes one might want to distribute the error of the attribute classifier as unevenly as possible among the different subgroups. Based on our analysis we develop heuristics for both training and using attribute classifiers for bias estimation in the data scarce regime. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on real and simulated data.