The increasing automation in many areas of the Industry expressly demands to design efficient machine-learning solutions for the detection of abnormal events. With the ubiquitous deployment of sensors monitoring nearly continuously the health of complex infrastructures, anomaly detection can now rely on measurements sampled at a very high frequency, providing a very rich representation of the phenomenon under surveillance. In order to exploit fully the information thus collected, the observations cannot be treated as multivariate data anymore and a functional analysis approach is required. It is the purpose of this paper to investigate the performance of recent techniques for anomaly detection in the functional setup on real datasets. After an overview of the state-of-the-art and a visual-descriptive study, a variety of anomaly detection methods are compared. While taxonomies of abnormalities (e.g. shape, location) in the functional setup are documented in the literature, assigning a specific type to the identified anomalies appears to be a challenging task. Thus, strengths and weaknesses of the existing approaches are benchmarked in view of these highlighted types in a simulation study. Anomaly detection methods are next evaluated on two datasets, related to the monitoring of helicopters in flight and to the spectrometry of construction materials namely. The benchmark analysis is concluded by recommendation guidance for practitioners.

Terrorism is a major problem worldwide, causing thousands of fatalities and billions of dollars in damage every year. Toward the end of better understanding and mitigating these attacks, we present a set of machine learning models that learn from localized news data in order to predict whether a terrorist attack will occur on a given calendar date and in a given state. The best model--a Random Forest that learns from a novel variable-length moving average representation of the feature space--achieves area under the receiver operating characteristic scores $> .667$ on four of the five states that were impacted most by terrorism between 2015 and 2018. Our key findings include that modeling terrorism as a set of independent events, rather than as a continuous process, is a fruitful approach--especially when the events are sparse and dissimilar. Additionally, our results highlight the need for localized models that account for differences between locations. From a machine learning perspective, we found that the Random Forest model outperformed several deep models on our multimodal, noisy, and imbalanced data set, thus demonstrating the efficacy of our novel feature representation method in such a context. We also show that its predictions are relatively robust to time gaps between attacks and observed characteristics of the attacks. Finally, we analyze factors that limit model performance, which include a noisy feature space and small amount of available data. These contributions provide an important foundation for the use of machine learning in efforts against terrorism in the United States and beyond.

We present a novel method for controlling extrapolation in the prediction profiler in the JMP software. The prediction profiler is a graphical tool for exploring high dimensional prediction surfaces for statistical and machine learning models. The profiler contains interactive cross-sectional views, or profile traces, of the prediction surface of a model. Our method helps users avoid exploring predictions that should be considered extrapolation. It also performs optimization over a constrained factor region that avoids extrapolation using a genetic algorithm. In simulations and real world examples, we demonstrate how optimal factor settings without constraint in the profiler are frequently extrapolated, and how extrapolation control helps avoid these solutions with invalid factor settings that may not be useful to the user.

I propose kernel ridge regression estimators for long term causal inference, where a short term experimental data set containing randomized treatment and short term surrogates is fused with a long term observational data set containing short term surrogates and long term outcomes. I propose estimators of treatment effects, dose responses, and counterfactual distributions with closed form solutions in terms of kernel matrix operations. I allow covariates, treatment, and surrogates to be discrete or continuous, and low, high, or infinite dimensional. For long term treatment effects, I prove $\sqrt{n}$ consistency, Gaussian approximation, and semiparametric efficiency. For long term dose responses, I prove uniform consistency with finite sample rates. For long term counterfactual distributions, I prove convergence in distribution.

Despite recent progress made by self-supervised methods in representation learning with residual networks, they still underperform supervised learning on the ImageNet classification benchmark, limiting their applicability in performance-critical settings. Building on prior theoretical insights from Mitrovic et al., 2021, we propose ReLICv2 which combines an explicit invariance loss with a contrastive objective over a varied set of appropriately constructed data views. ReLICv2 achieves 77.1% top-1 classification accuracy on ImageNet using linear evaluation with a ResNet50 architecture and 80.6% with larger ResNet models, outperforming previous state-of-the-art self-supervised approaches by a wide margin. Most notably, ReLICv2 is the first representation learning method to consistently outperform the supervised baseline in a like-for-like comparison using a range of standard ResNet architectures. Finally we show that despite using ResNet encoders, ReLICv2 is comparable to state-of-the-art self-supervised vision transformers.

Many statistical machine approaches could ultimately highlight novel features of the etiology of complex diseases by analyzing multi-omics data. However, they are sensitive to some deviations in distribution when the observed samples are potentially contaminated with adversarial corrupted outliers (e.g., a fictional data distribution). Likewise, statistical advances lag in supporting comprehensive data-driven analyses of complex multi-omics data integration. We propose a novel non-linear M-estimator-based approach, "robust kernel machine regression (RobKMR)," to improve the robustness of statistical machine regression and the diversity of fictional data to examine the higher-order composite effect of multi-omics datasets. We address a robust kernel-centered Gram matrix to estimate the model parameters accurately. We also propose a robust score test to assess the marginal and joint Hadamard product of features from multi-omics data. We apply our proposed approach to a multi-omics dataset of osteoporosis (OP) from Caucasian females. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively identifies the inter-related risk factors of OP. With solid evidence (p-value = 0.00001), biological validations, network-based analysis, causal inference, and drug repurposing, the selected three triplets ((DKK1, SMTN, DRGX), (MTND5, FASTKD2, CSMD3), (MTND5, COG3, CSMD3)) are significant biomarkers and directly relate to BMD. Overall, the top three selected genes (DKK1, MTND5, FASTKD2) and one gene (SIDT1 at p-value= 0.001) significantly bond with four drugs- Tacrolimus, Ibandronate, Alendronate, and Bazedoxifene out of 30 candidates for drug repurposing in OP. Further, the proposed approach can be applied to any disease model where multi-omics datasets are available.

Multistage sequential decision-making scenarios are commonly seen in the healthcare diagnosis process. In this paper, an active learning-based method is developed to actively collect only the necessary patient data in a sequential manner. There are two novelties in the proposed method. First, unlike the existing ordinal logistic regression model which only models a single stage, we estimate the parameters for all stages together. Second, it is assumed that the coefficients for common features in different stages are kept consistent. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated in both a simulation study and a real case study. Compared with the baseline method where the data is modeled individually and independently, the proposed method improves the estimation efficiency by 62\%-1838\%. For both simulation and testing cohorts, the proposed method is more effective, stable, interpretable, and computationally efficient on parameter estimation. The proposed method can be easily extended to a variety of scenarios where decision-making can be done sequentially with only necessary information.

Money laundering is a profound, global problem. Nonetheless, there is little statistical and machine learning research on the topic. In this paper, we focus on anti-money laundering in banks. To help organize existing research in the field, we propose a unifying terminology and provide a review of the literature. This is structured around two central tasks: (i) client risk profiling and (ii) suspicious behavior flagging. We find that client risk profiling is characterized by diagnostics, i.e., efforts to find and explain risk factors. Suspicious behavior flagging, on the other hand, is characterized by non-disclosed features and hand-crafted risk indices. Finally, we discuss directions for future research. One major challenge is the lack of public data sets. This may, potentially, be addressed by synthetic data generation. Other possible research directions include semi-supervised and deep learning, interpretability and fairness of the results.

This work presents methods demonstrating that when the derivatives of target variables (outputs) with respect to inputs can be extracted - We introduce a novel metric that can be utilised in a from processes of interest, e.g., neural networks hyper-parameter optimisation pipeline that provides an (NN) based surrogate models, they can be leveraged indicator of an upper bound to NN model complexity to further improve the accuracy of differentiable - We propose an alternative regularisation method for linear ML models. This paper generalises the idea regression problems (using ridge regression as an and provides practical methodologies that can be example) that outperforms conventional regularisation used to leverage gradient information (GI) across over varying training sample sizes by utilising GI a variety of applications including: (1) Improving the performance of generative adversarial networks In the rest of this paper, Section 2 formulates the GI idea (GANs); (2) efficiently tuning NN model under a supervised learning setting. The proposed GI assisted complexity; (3) regularising linear regressions. Numerical methodologies are presented between Section 3 to 5, and followed results show that GI can effective enhance by a conclusion in Section 6. ML models with existing datasets, demonstrating its value for a variety of applications.

Over the past several years, a slew of different methods to measure the fairness of a machine learning model have been proposed. However, despite the growing number of publications and implementations, there is still a critical lack of literature that explains the interplay of fair machine learning with the social sciences of philosophy, sociology, and law. We hope to remedy this issue by accumulating and expounding upon the thoughts and discussions of fair machine learning produced by both social and formal (specifically machine learning and statistics) sciences in this field guide. Specifically, in addition to giving the mathematical and algorithmic backgrounds of several popular statistical and causal-based fair machine learning methods, we explain the underlying philosophical and legal thoughts that support them. Further, we explore several criticisms of the current approaches to fair machine learning from sociological and philosophical viewpoints. It is our hope that this field guide will help fair machine learning practitioners better understand how their algorithms align with important humanistic values (such as fairness) and how we can, as a field, design methods and metrics to better serve oppressed and marginalized populaces.