Neural models, with their ability to provide novel representations, have shown promising results in prediction tasks in healthcare. However, patient demographics, medical technology, and quality of care change over time. This often leads to drop in the performance of neural models for prospective patients, especially in terms of their calibration. The deep kernel learning (DKL) framework may be robust to such changes as it combines neural models with Gaussian processes, which are aware of prediction uncertainty. Our hypothesis is that out-of-distribution test points will result in probabilities closer to the global mean and hence prevent overconfident predictions. This in turn, we hypothesise, will result in better calibration on prospective data. This paper investigates DKL's behaviour when facing a temporal shift, which was naturally introduced when an information system that feeds a cohort database was changed. We compare DKL's performance to that of a neural baseline based on recurrent neural networks. We show that DKL indeed produced superior calibrated predictions. We also confirm that the DKL's predictions were indeed less sharp. In addition, DKL's discrimination ability was even improved: its AUC was 0.746 (+- 0.014 std), compared to 0.739 (+- 0.028 std) for the baseline. The paper demonstrated the importance of including uncertainty in neural computing, especially for their prospective use.

Variable star analysis and classification is an important task in the understanding of stellar features and processes. While historically classifications have been done manually by highly skilled experts, the recent and rapid expansion in the quantity and quality of data has demanded new techniques, most notably automatic classification through supervised machine learning. We present an expansion of existing work on the field by analysing variable stars in the Kepler field using an ensemble approach, combining multiple characterization and classification techniques to produce improved classification rates. Classifications for each of the roughly 150 000 stars observed by Kepler are produced separating the stars into one of 14 variable star classes. The study of variable stars has provided a wealth of valuable astrophysical information. Intrinsic sources of variation, such as in pulsation, provide a physical probe and test for our understanding of stellar atmospheres and interiors.

Full electronic automation in stock exchanges has recently become popular, generating high-frequency intraday data and motivating the development of near real-time price forecasting methods. Machine learning algorithms are widely applied to mid-price stock predictions. Processing raw data as inputs for prediction models (e.g., data thinning and feature engineering) can primarily affect the performance of the prediction methods. However, researchers rarely discuss this topic. This motivated us to propose three novel modelling strategies for processing raw data. We illustrate how our novel modelling strategies improve forecasting performance by analyzing high-frequency data of the Dow Jones 30 component stocks. In these experiments, our strategies often lead to statistically significant improvement in predictions. The three strategies improve the F1 scores of the SVM models by 0.056, 0.087, and 0.016, respectively.

Cross-modal contrastive learning has led the recent advances in multimodal retrieval with its simplicity and effectiveness. In this work, however, we reveal that cross-modal contrastive learning suffers from incorrect normalization of the sum retrieval probabilities of each text or video instance. Specifically, we show that many test instances are either over- or under-represented during retrieval, significantly hurting the retrieval performance. To address this problem, we propose Normalized Contrastive Learning (NCL) which utilizes the Sinkhorn-Knopp algorithm to compute the instance-wise biases that properly normalize the sum retrieval probabilities of each instance so that every text and video instance is fairly represented during cross-modal retrieval. Empirical study shows that NCL brings consistent and significant gains in text-video retrieval on different model architectures, with new state-of-the-art multimodal retrieval metrics on the ActivityNet, MSVD, and MSR-VTT datasets without any architecture engineering.

Predicting drug side-effects before they occur is a key task in keeping the number of drug-related hospitalizations low and to improve drug discovery processes. Automatic predictors of side-effects generally are not able to process the structure of the drug, resulting in a loss of information. Graph neural networks have seen great success in recent years, thanks to their ability of exploiting the information conveyed by the graph structure and labels. These models have been used in a wide variety of biological applications, among which the prediction of drug side-effects on a large knowledge graph. Exploiting the molecular graph encoding the structure of the drug represents a novel approach, in which the problem is formulated as a multi-class multi-label graph-focused classification. We developed a methodology to carry out this task, using recurrent Graph Neural Networks, and building a dataset from freely accessible and well established data sources. The results show that our method has an improved classification capability, under many parameters and metrics, with respect to previously available predictors.

Automatic spoken language identification (LID) is a very important research field in the era of multilingual voice-command-based human-computer interaction (HCI). A front-end LID module helps to improve the performance of many speech-based applications in the multilingual scenario. India is a populous country with diverse cultures and languages. The majority of the Indian population needs to use their respective native languages for verbal interaction with machines. Therefore, the development of efficient Indian spoken language recognition systems is useful for adapting smart technologies in every section of Indian society. The field of Indian LID has started gaining momentum in the last two decades, mainly due to the development of several standard multilingual speech corpora for the Indian languages. Even though significant research progress has already been made in this field, to the best of our knowledge, there are not many attempts to analytically review them collectively. In this work, we have conducted one of the very first attempts to present a comprehensive review of the Indian spoken language recognition research field. In-depth analysis has been presented to emphasize the unique challenges of low-resource and mutual influences for developing LID systems in the Indian contexts. Several essential aspects of the Indian LID research, such as the detailed description of the available speech corpora, the major research contributions, including the earlier attempts based on statistical modeling to the recent approaches based on different neural network architectures, and the future research trends are discussed. This review work will help assess the state of the present Indian LID research by any active researcher or any research enthusiasts from related fields.

Oral Food Challenges (OFCs) are essential to accurately diagnosing food allergy due to the limitations of existing clinical testing. However, some patients are hesitant to undergo OFCs, while those willing suffer from limited access to allergists in rural/community healthcare settings. Despite its success in predicting patient outcomes in other clinical settings, few applications of machine learning to food allergy have been developed. Thus, in this study, we seek to leverage machine learning methodologies for OFC outcome prediction. Retrospective data was gathered from 1,112 patients who collectively underwent a total of 1,284 OFCs, and consisted of clinical factors including serum-specific Immunoglobulin E (IgE), total IgE, skin prick tests (SPTs), comorbidities, sex, and age. Using these features, multiple machine learning models were constructed to predict OFC outcomes for three common allergens: peanut, egg, and milk. The best performing model for each allergen was an ensemble of random forest (egg) or Learning Using Concave and Convex Kernels (LUCCK) (peanut, milk) models, which achieved an Area under the Curve (AUC) of 0.91, 0.96, and 0.94, in predicting OFC outcomes for peanut, egg, and milk, respectively. Moreover, all such models had sensitivity and specificity values 89%. Model interpretation via SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) indicates that specific IgE, along with wheal and flare values from SPTs, are highly predictive of OFC outcomes. The results of this analysis suggest that ensemble learning has the potential to predict OFC outcomes and reveal relevant clinical factors for further study.

The fair-ranking problem, which asks to rank a given set of items to maximize utility subject to group fairness constraints, has received attention in the fairness, information retrieval, and machine learning literature. Recent works, however, observe that errors in socially-salient (including protected) attributes of items can significantly undermine fairness guarantees of existing fair-ranking algorithms and raise the problem of mitigating the effect of such errors. We study the fair-ranking problem under a model where socially-salient attributes of items are randomly and independently perturbed. We present a fair-ranking framework that incorporates group fairness requirements along with probabilistic information about perturbations in socially-salient attributes. We provide provable guarantees on the fairness and utility attainable by our framework and show that it is information-theoretically impossible to significantly beat these guarantees. Our framework works for multiple non-disjoint attributes and a general class of fairness constraints that includes proportional and equal representation. Empirically, we observe that, compared to baselines, our algorithm outputs rankings with higher fairness, and has a similar or better fairness-utility trade-off compared to baselines.

Knowledge distillation(KD) is a widely-used technique to train compact models in object detection. However, there is still a lack of study on how to distill between heterogeneous detectors. In this paper, we empirically find that better FPN features from a heterogeneous teacher detector can help the student although their detection heads and label assignments are different. However, directly aligning the feature maps to distill detectors suffers from two problems. First, the difference in feature magnitude between the teacher and the student could enforce overly strict constraints on the student. Second, the FPN stages and channels with large feature magnitude from the teacher model could dominate the gradient of distillation loss, which will overwhelm the effects of other features in KD and introduce much noise. To address the above issues, we propose to imitate features with Pearson Correlation Coefficient to focus on the relational information from the teacher and relax constraints on the magnitude of the features. Our method consistently outperforms the existing detection KD methods and works for both homogeneous and heterogeneous student-teacher pairs. Furthermore, it converges faster. With a powerful MaskRCNN-Swin detector as the teacher, ResNet-50 based RetinaNet and FCOS achieve 41.5% and 43.9% mAP on COCO2017, which are 4.1\% and 4.8\% higher than the baseline, respectively.

The NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS) is an essential tool for researchers that allows them to explore the astronomy and astrophysics scientific literature, but it has yet to exploit recent advances in natural language processing. At ADASS 2021, we introduced astroBERT, a machine learning language model tailored to the text used in astronomy papers in ADS. In this work we: 1. announce the first public release of the astroBERT language model; 2. show how astroBERT improves over existing public language models on astrophysics specific tasks; 3. and detail how ADS plans to harness the unique structure of scientific papers, the citation graph and citation context, to further improve astroBERT.