Financial distress of municipalities, although comparable to bankruptcy of private companies, has a far more serious impact on the well-being of communities. For this reason, it is essential to detect deficits as soon as possible. Predicting financial distress in municipalities can be a complex task, as it involves understanding a wide range of factors that can affect a municipality's financial health. In this paper, we evaluate machine learning models to predict financial distress in Italian municipalities. Accounting judiciary experts have specialized knowledge and experience in evaluating the financial performance, and they use a range of indicators to make their assessments. By incorporating these indicators in the feature extraction process, we can ensure that the model is taking into account a wide range of information that is relevant to the financial health of municipalities. The results of this study indicate that using machine learning models in combination with the knowledge of accounting judiciary experts can aid in the early detection of financial distress, leading to better outcomes for the communities.

Deep learning image processing models have had remarkable success in recent years in generating high quality images. Particularly, the Improved Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM) have shown superiority in image quality to the state-of-the-art generative models, which motivated us to investigate their capability in the generation of the synthetic electrocardiogram (ECG) signals. In this work, synthetic ECG signals are generated by the Improved DDPM and by the Wasserstein GAN with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) models and then compared. To this end, we devise a pipeline to utilize DDPM in its original $2D$ form. First, the $1D$ ECG time series data are embedded into the $2D$ space, for which we employed the Gramian Angular Summation/Difference Fields (GASF/GADF) as well as Markov Transition Fields (MTF) to generate three $2D$ matrices from each ECG time series, which when put together, form a $3$-channel $2D$ datum. Then $2D$ DDPM is used to generate $2D$ $3$-channel synthetic ECG images. The $1D$ ECG signals are created by de-embedding the $2D$ generated image files back into the $1D$ space. This work focuses on unconditional models and the generation of \emph{Normal Sinus Beat} ECG signals exclusively, where the Normal Sinus Beat class from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia dataset is used in the training phase. The \emph{quality}, \emph{distribution}, and the \emph{authenticity} of the generated ECG signals by each model are quantitatively evaluated and compared. Our results show that in the proposed pipeline and in the particular setting of this paper, the WGAN-GP model is consistently superior to DDPM in all the considered metrics.

Distantly supervised named entity recognition (DS-NER) has been proposed to exploit the automatically labeled training data instead of human annotations. The distantly annotated datasets are often noisy and contain a considerable number of false negatives. The recent approach uses a weighted sampling approach to select a subset of negative samples for training. However, it requires a good classifier to assign weights to the negative samples. In this paper, we propose a simple and straightforward approach for selecting the top negative samples that have high similarities with all the positive samples for training. Our method achieves consistent performance improvements on four distantly supervised NER datasets. Our analysis also shows that it is critical to differentiate the true negatives from the false negatives.

Child dehydration is a significant health concern, especially among children under 5 years of age who are more susceptible to diarrhea and vomiting. In Afghanistan, severe diarrhea contributes to child mortality due to dehydration. However, there is no evidence of research exploring the potential of machine learning techniques in diagnosing dehydration in Afghan children under five. To fill this gap, this study leveraged various classifiers such as Random Forest, Multilayer Perceptron, Support Vector Machine, J48, and Logistic Regression to develop a predictive model using a dataset of sick children retrieved from the Afghanistan Demographic and Health Survey (ADHS). The primary objective was to determine the dehydration status of children under 5 years. Among all the classifiers, Random Forest proved to be the most effective, achieving an accuracy of 91.46%, precision of 91%, and AUC of 94%. This model can potentially assist healthcare professionals in promptly and accurately identifying dehydration in under five children, leading to timely interventions, and reducing the risk of severe health complications. Our study demonstrates the potential of machine learning techniques in improving the early diagnosis of dehydration in Afghan children.

Myoelectric pattern recognition is one of the important aspects in the design of the control strategy for various applications including upper-limb prostheses and bio-robotic hand movement systems. The current work has proposed an approach to design an energy-efficient EMG-based controller by considering a kernelized SVM classifier for decoding the information of surface electromyography (sEMG) signals to infer the underlying muscle movements. In order to achieve the optimized performance of the EMG-based controller, our main strategy of classifier design is to reduce the false movements of the overall system (when the EMG-based controller is at the `Rest' position). To this end, we have formulated the training algorithm of the proposed supervised learning system as a general constrained multi-objective optimization problem. An elitist multi-objective evolutionary algorithm $-$ the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) has been used to tune the hyperparameters of SVM. We have presented the experimental results by performing the experiments on a dataset consisting of the sEMG signals collected from eleven subjects at five different upper limb positions. Furthermore, the performance of the trained models based on the two-objective metrics, namely classification accuracy, and false-negative have been evaluated on two different test sets to examine the generalization capability of the proposed training approach while implementing limb-position invariant EMG classification. It is evident from the presented result that the proposed approach provides much more flexibility to the designer in selecting the parameters of the classifier to optimize the energy efficiency of the EMG-based controller.

Probabilistic graphical models have become an important unsupervised learning tool for detecting network structures for a variety of problems, including the estimation of functional neuronal connectivity from two-photon calcium imaging data. However, in the context of calcium imaging, technological limitations only allow for partially overlapping layers of neurons in a brain region of interest to be jointly recorded. In this case, graph estimation for the full data requires inference for edge selection when many pairs of neurons have no simultaneous observations. This leads to the Graph Quilting problem, which seeks to estimate a graph in the presence of block-missingness in the empirical covariance matrix. Solutions for the Graph Quilting problem have previously been studied for Gaussian graphical models; however, neural activity data from calcium imaging are often non-Gaussian, thereby requiring a more flexible modeling approach. Thus, in our work, we study two approaches for nonparanormal Graph Quilting based on the Gaussian copula graphical model, namely a maximum likelihood procedure and a low-rank based framework. We provide theoretical guarantees on edge recovery for the former approach under similar conditions to those previously developed for the Gaussian setting, and we investigate the empirical performance of both methods using simulations as well as real data calcium imaging data. Our approaches yield more scientifically meaningful functional connectivity estimates compared to existing Gaussian graph quilting methods for this calcium imaging data set.

Physics is a field of science that has traditionally used the scientific method to answer questions about why natural phenomena occur and to make testable models that explain the phenomena. Discovering equations, laws and principles that are invariant, robust and causal explanations of the world has been fundamental in physical sciences throughout the centuries. Discoveries emerge from observing the world and, when possible, performing interventional studies in the system under study. With the advent of big data and the use of data-driven methods, causal and equation discovery fields have grown and made progress in computer science, physics, statistics, philosophy, and many applied fields. All these domains are intertwined and can be used to discover causal relations, physical laws, and equations from observational data. This paper reviews the concepts, methods, and relevant works on causal and equation discovery in the broad field of Physics and outlines the most important challenges and promising future lines of research. We also provide a taxonomy for observational causal and equation discovery, point out connections, and showcase a complete set of case studies in Earth and climate sciences, fluid dynamics and mechanics, and the neurosciences. This review demonstrates that discovering fundamental laws and causal relations by observing natural phenomena is being revolutionised with the efficient exploitation of observational data, modern machine learning algorithms and the interaction with domain knowledge. Exciting times are ahead with many challenges and opportunities to improve our understanding of complex systems.

Ensembling has a long history in statistical data analysis, with many impactful applications. However, in many modern machine learning settings, the benefits of ensembling are less ubiquitous and less obvious. We study, both theoretically and empirically, the fundamental question of when ensembling yields significant performance improvements in classification tasks. Theoretically, we prove new results relating the \emph{ensemble improvement rate} (a measure of how much ensembling decreases the error rate versus a single model, on a relative scale) to the \emph{disagreement-error ratio}. We show that ensembling improves performance significantly whenever the disagreement rate is large relative to the average error rate; and that, conversely, one classifier is often enough whenever the disagreement rate is low relative to the average error rate. On the way to proving these results, we derive, under a mild condition called \emph{competence}, improved upper and lower bounds on the average test error rate of the majority vote classifier. To complement this theory, we study ensembling empirically in a variety of settings, verifying the predictions made by our theory, and identifying practical scenarios where ensembling does and does not result in large performance improvements. Perhaps most notably, we demonstrate a distinct difference in behavior between interpolating models (popular in current practice) and non-interpolating models (such as tree-based methods, where ensembling is popular), demonstrating that ensembling helps considerably more in the latter case than in the former.

Reliable outlier detection is critical for real-world deployment of deep learning models. Although extensively studied, likelihoods produced by deep generative models have been largely dismissed as being impractical for outlier detection. First, deep generative model likelihoods are readily biased by low-level input statistics. Second, many recent solutions for correcting these biases are computationally expensive, or do not generalize well to complex, natural datasets. Here, we explore outlier detection with a state-of-the-art deep autoregressive model: PixelCNN++. We show that biases in PixelCNN++ likelihoods arise primarily from predictions based on local dependencies. We propose two families of bijective transformations -- ``stirring'' and ``shaking'' -- which ameliorate low-level biases and isolate the contribution of long-range dependencies to PixelCNN++ likelihoods. These transformations are inexpensive and readily computed at evaluation time. We test our approaches extensively with five grayscale and six natural image datasets and show that they achieve or exceed state-of-the-art outlier detection, particularly on datasets with complex, natural images. We also show that our solutions work well with other types of generative models (generative flows and variational autoencoders) and that their efficacy is governed by each model's reliance on local dependencies. In sum, lightweight remedies suffice to achieve robust outlier detection on image data with deep generative models.

Users' physical safety is an increasing concern as the market for intelligent systems continues to grow, where unconstrained systems may recommend users dangerous actions that can lead to serious injury. Covertly unsafe text is an area of particular interest, as such text may arise from everyday scenarios and are challenging to detect as harmful. We propose FARM, a novel framework leveraging external knowledge for trustworthy rationale generation in the context of safety. In particular, FARM foveates on missing knowledge to qualify the information required to reason in specific scenarios and retrieves this information with attribution to trustworthy sources. This knowledge is used to both classify the safety of the original text and generate human-interpretable rationales, shedding light on the risk of systems to specific user groups and helping both stakeholders manage the risks of their systems and policymakers to provide concrete safeguards for consumer safety. Our experiments show that FARM obtains state-of-the-art results on the SafeText dataset, showing absolute improvement in safety classification accuracy by 5.9%.