Modelling and forecasting real-life human behaviour using online social media is an active endeavour of interest in politics, government, academia, and industry. Since its creation in 2006, Twitter has been proposed as a potential laboratory that could be used to gauge and predict social behaviour. During the last decade, the user base of Twitter has been growing and becoming more representative of the general population. Here we analyse this user base in the context of the 2021 Mexican Legislative Election. To do so, we use a dataset of 15 million election-related tweets in the six months preceding election day. We explore different election models that assign political preference to either the ruling parties or the opposition. We find that models using data with geographical attributes determine the results of the election with better precision and accuracy than conventional polling methods. These results demonstrate that analysis of public online data can outperform conventional polling methods, and that political analysis and general forecasting would likely benefit from incorporating such data in the immediate future. Moreover, the same Twitter dataset with geographical attributes is positively correlated with results from official census data on population and internet usage in Mexico. These findings suggest that we have reached a period in time when online activity, appropriately curated, can provide an accurate representation of offline behaviour.

We consider the problem of learning a target function corresponding to a deep, extensive-width, non-linear neural network with random Gaussian weights. We consider the asymptotic limit where the number of samples, the input dimension and the network width are proportionally large. We propose a closed-form expression for the Bayes-optimal test error, for regression and classification tasks. We further compute closed-form expressions for the test errors of ridge regression, kernel and random features regression. We find, in particular, that optimally regularized ridge regression, as well as kernel regression, achieve Bayes-optimal performances, while the logistic loss yields a near-optimal test error for classification. We further show numerically that when the number of samples grows faster than the dimension, ridge and kernel methods become suboptimal, while neural networks achieve test error close to zero from quadratically many samples.

ABSTRACT The common standard for quality evaluation of automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems is reference-based metrics such as the Word Error Rate (WER), computed using manual ground-truth transcriptions that are time-consuming and expensive to obtain. This work proposes a multi-language referenceless quality metric, which allows comparing the performance of different ASR models on a speech dataset without ground truth transcriptions. To estimate the quality of ASR hypotheses, a pre-trained language model (LM) is fine-tuned with contrastive learning in a self-supervised learning manner. In experiments conducted on several unseen test datasets consisting of outputs from top commercial ASR engines in various languages, the proposed referenceless metric obtains a much higher correlation with WER scores and their ranks than the perplexity metric from the state-of-art multi-lingual LM in all experiments, and also reduces WER Figure 1. NoRefER fine-tunes a pre-trained language model in by more than 7% when used for ensembling hypotheses.

Autonomous agents acting in real-world environments often need to reason with unknown novelties interfering with their plan execution. Novelty is an unexpected phenomenon that can alter the core characteristics, composition, and dynamics of the environment. Novelty can occur at any time in any sufficiently complex environment without any prior notice or explanation. Previous studies show that novelty has catastrophic impact on agent performance. Intelligent agents reason with an internal model of the world to understand the intricacies of their environment and to successfully execute their plans. The introduction of novelty into the environment usually renders their internal model inaccurate and the generated plans no longer applicable. Novelty is particularly prevalent in the real world where domain-specific and even predicted novelty-specific approaches are used to mitigate the novelty's impact. In this work, we demonstrate that a domain-independent AI agent designed to detect, characterize, and accommodate novelty in smaller-scope physics-based games such as Angry Birds and Cartpole can be adapted to successfully perform and reason with novelty in realistic high-fidelity simulator of the military domain.

The RVL-CDIP benchmark is widely used for measuring performance on the task of document classification. Despite its widespread use, we reveal several undesirable characteristics of the RVL-CDIP benchmark. These include (1) substantial amounts of label noise, which we estimate to be 8.1% (ranging between 1.6% to 16.9% per document category); (2) presence of many ambiguous or multi-label documents; (3) a large overlap between test and train splits, which can inflate model performance metrics; and (4) presence of sensitive personally-identifiable information like US Social Security numbers (SSNs). We argue that there is a risk in using RVL-CDIP for benchmarking document classifiers, as its limited scope, presence of errors (state-of-the-art models now achieve accuracy error rates that are within our estimated label error rate), and lack of diversity make it less than ideal for benchmarking. We further advocate for the creation of a new document classification benchmark, and provide recommendations for what characteristics such a resource should include.

In this study, the main objective is to develop an algorithm capable of identifying and delineating tumor regions in breast ultrasound (BUS) and mammographic images. The technique employs two advanced deep learning architectures, namely U-Net and pretrained SAM, for tumor segmentation. The U-Net model is specifically designed for medical image segmentation and leverages its deep convolutional neural network framework to extract meaningful features from input images. On the other hand, the pretrained SAM architecture incorporates a mechanism to capture spatial dependencies and generate segmentation results. Evaluation is conducted on a diverse dataset containing annotated tumor regions in BUS and mammographic images, covering both benign and malignant tumors. This dataset enables a comprehensive assessment of the algorithm's performance across different tumor types. Results demonstrate that the U-Net model outperforms the pretrained SAM architecture in accurately identifying and segmenting tumor regions in both BUS and mammographic images. The U-Net exhibits superior performance in challenging cases involving irregular shapes, indistinct boundaries, and high tumor heterogeneity. In contrast, the pretrained SAM architecture exhibits limitations in accurately identifying tumor areas, particularly for malignant tumors and objects with weak boundaries or complex shapes. These findings highlight the importance of selecting appropriate deep learning architectures tailored for medical image segmentation. The U-Net model showcases its potential as a robust and accurate tool for tumor detection, while the pretrained SAM architecture suggests the need for further improvements to enhance segmentation performance.

Interpreting machine learning models remains a challenge, hindering their adoption in clinical settings. This paper proposes leveraging Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) to provide interpretable descriptions of black box classification models in high-stakes sepsis detection. By analyzing misclassified instances, significant features contributing to suboptimal performance are identified. The analysis reveals regions where the classifier performs poorly, allowing the calculation of error rates within these regions. This knowledge is crucial for cautious decision-making in sepsis detection and other critical applications. The proposed approach is demonstrated using the eICU dataset, effectively identifying and visualizing regions where the classifier underperforms. By enhancing interpretability, our method promotes the adoption of machine learning models in clinical practice, empowering informed decision-making and mitigating risks in critical scenarios.

Automatic classification of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals plays a crucial role in the early prevention and diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases. While ECG signals can be used for the diagnosis of various diseases, their pathological characteristics exhibit minimal variations, posing a challenge to automatic classification models. Existing methods primarily utilize convolutional neural networks to extract ECG signal features for classification, which may not fully capture the pathological feature differences of different diseases. Transformer networks have advantages in feature extraction for sequence data, but the complete network is complex and relies on large-scale datasets. To address these challenges, we propose a single-layer Transformer network called Multi-Scale Shifted Windows Transformer Networks (MSW-Transformer), which uses a multi-window sliding attention mechanism at different scales to capture features in different dimensions. The self-attention is restricted to non-overlapping local windows via shifted windows, and different window scales have different receptive fields. A learnable feature fusion method is then proposed to integrate features from different windows to further enhance model performance. Furthermore, we visualize the attention mechanism of the multi-window shifted mechanism to achieve better clinical interpretation in the ECG classification task. The proposed model achieves state-of-the-art performance on five classification tasks of the PTBXL-2020 12-lead ECG dataset, which includes 5 diagnostic superclasses, 23 diagnostic subclasses, 12 rhythm classes, 17 morphology classes, and 44 diagnosis classes, with average macro-F1 scores of 77.85%, 47.57%, 66.13%, 34.60%, and 34.29%, and average sample-F1 scores of 81.26%, 68.27%, 91.32%, 50.07%, and 63.19%, respectively.

We propose an efficient abnormal event detection model based on a lightweight masked auto-encoder (AE) applied at the video frame level. The novelty of the proposed model is threefold. First, we introduce an approach to weight tokens based on motion gradients, thus avoiding learning to reconstruct the static background scene. Second, we integrate a teacher decoder and a student decoder into our architecture, leveraging the discrepancy between the outputs given by the two decoders to improve anomaly detection. Third, we generate synthetic abnormal events to augment the training videos, and task the masked AE model to jointly reconstruct the original frames (without anomalies) and the corresponding pixel-level anomaly maps. Our design leads to an efficient and effective model, as demonstrated by the extensive experiments carried out on three benchmarks: Avenue, ShanghaiTech and UCSD Ped2. The empirical results show that our model achieves an excellent trade-off between speed and accuracy, obtaining competitive AUC scores, while processing 1670 FPS. Hence, our model is between 8 and 70 times faster than competing methods. We also conduct an ablation study to justify our design.

Machine Learning as a Service (MLaaS) platforms have gained popularity due to their accessibility, cost-efficiency, scalability, and rapid development capabilities. However, recent research has highlighted the vulnerability of cloud-based models in MLaaS to model extraction attacks. In this paper, we introduce FDINET, a novel defense mechanism that leverages the feature distribution of deep neural network (DNN) models. Concretely, by analyzing the feature distribution from the adversary's queries, we reveal that the feature distribution of these queries deviates from that of the model's training set. Based on this key observation, we propose Feature Distortion Index (FDI), a metric designed to quantitatively measure the feature distribution deviation of received queries. The proposed FDINET utilizes FDI to train a binary detector and exploits FDI similarity to identify colluding adversaries from distributed extraction attacks. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate FDINET against six state-of-the-art extraction attacks on four benchmark datasets and four popular model architectures. Empirical results demonstrate the following findings FDINET proves to be highly effective in detecting model extraction, achieving a 100% detection accuracy on DFME and DaST. FDINET is highly efficient, using just 50 queries to raise an extraction alarm with an average confidence of 96.08% for GTSRB. FDINET exhibits the capability to identify colluding adversaries with an accuracy exceeding 91%. Additionally, it demonstrates the ability to detect two types of adaptive attacks.