Accurate forecasting in the e-commerce finance domain is particularly challenging due to irregular invoice schedules, payment deferrals, and user-specific behavioral variability. These factors, combined with sparse datasets and short historical windows, limit the effectiveness of conventional time-series methods. While deep learning and Transformer-based models have shown promise in other domains, their performance deteriorates under partial observability and limited historical data. To address these challenges, we propose a hybrid forecasting framework that integrates dynamic lagged feature engineering and adaptive rolling-window representations with classical statistical models and ensemble learners. Our approach explicitly incorporates invoice-level behavioral modeling, structured lag of support data, and custom stability-aware loss functions, enabling robust forecasts in sparse and irregular financial settings. Empirical results demonstrate an approximate 5% reduction in MAPE compared to baseline models, translating into substantial financial savings. Furthermore, the framework enhances forecast stability over quarterly horizons and strengthens feature target correlation by capturing both short- and long-term patterns, leveraging user profile attributes, and simulating upcoming invoice behaviors. These findings underscore the value of combining structured lagging, invoice-level closure modeling, and behavioral insights to advance predictive accuracy in sparse financial time-series forecasting.

As AI inference scales to billions of queries and emerging reasoning and agentic workflows increase token demand, reliable estimates of per-query energy use are increasingly important for capacity planning, emissions accounting, and efficiency prioritization. Many public estimates are inconsistent and overstate energy use, because they extrapolate from limited benchmarks and fail to reflect efficiency gains achievable at scale. In this perspective, we introduce a bottom-up methodology to estimate the per-query energy of large-scale LLM systems based on token throughput. For models running on an H100 node under realistic workloads, GPU utilization and PUE constraints, we estimate a median energy per query of 0.34 Wh (IQR: 0.18-0.67) for frontier-scale models (>200 billion parameters). These results are consistent with measurements using production-scale configurations and show that non-production estimates and assumptions can overstate energy use by 4-20x. Extending to test-time scaling scenarios with 15x more tokens per typical query, the median energy rises 13x to 4.32 Wh, indicating that targeting efficiency in this regime will deliver the largest fleet-wide savings. We quantify achievable efficiency gains at the model, serving platform, and hardware levels, finding individual median reductions of 1.5-3.5x in energy per query, while combined advances can plausibly deliver 8-20x reductions. To illustrate the system-level impact, we estimate the baseline daily energy use of a deployment serving 1 billion queries to be 0.8 GWh/day. If 10% are long queries, demand could grow to 1.8 GWh/day. With targeted efficiency interventions, it falls to 0.9 GWh/day, similar to the energy footprint of web search at that scale. This echoes how data centers historically tempered energy growth through efficiency gains during the internet and cloud build-up.

Traffic accidents remain a major global concern, with lane-change maneuvers recognized as one of the significant contributors to collision risk. Anticipating these maneuvers has become an important research focus, supporting both traffic safety and the safe integration of autonomous and assisted driving technologies. Over the past decade, numerous models have been developed for lane-change prediction. However, most existing works have been designed and validated using simulation environments or pre-recorded datasets. While these settings allow for benchmarking and controlled evaluation, they often rely on simplified assumptions about sensing, communication, and vehicle behavior that do not fully capture the complexity of real-world operation. Real-world deployments of lane-change prediction systems are relatively rare, and when they are reported, their practical challenges, limitations, and insights remain under-documented. To illustrate the setting more concretely, consider the left lane change scenario shown in Figure 1. The Ego Vehicle (EV) is driving in the left lane, while the Target Vehicle (TV) is moving in the right lane behind a Preceding Vehicle (PV). When the PV suddenly brakes, the TV must change lanes to avoid a collision.

Integrating LLM powered operators in declarative query languages allows for the combination of cheap and interpretable functions with powerful, generalizable language model reasoning. However, in order to benefit from the optimized execution of a database query language like SQL, generated outputs must align with the rules enforced by both type checkers and database contents. Current approaches address this challenge with orchestrations consisting of many LLM-based post-processing calls to ensure alignment between generated outputs and database values, introducing performance bottlenecks. We perform a study on the ability of various sized open-source language models to both parse and execute functions within a query language based on SQL, showing that small language models can excel as function executors over hybrid data sources. Then, we propose an efficient solution to enforce the well-typedness of LLM functions, demonstrating 7% accuracy improvement on a multi-hop question answering dataset with 53% improvement in latency over comparable solutions. We make our implementation available at https://github.com/parkervg/blendsql

Effective anomaly detection in time series is pivotal for modern industrial applications and financial systems. Due to the scarcity of anomaly labels and the high cost of manual labeling, reconstruction-based unsupervised approaches have garnered considerable attention. However, accurate anomaly detection remains an unsettled challenge, since the optimization objectives of reconstruction-based methods merely rely on point-by-point distance measures, ignoring the potential structural characteristics of time series and thus failing to tackle complex pattern-wise anomalies. In this paper, we propose StrAD, a novel structure-enhanced anomaly detection approach to enrich the optimization objective by incorporating structural information hidden in the time series and steering the data reconstruction procedure to better capture such structural features. StrAD accommodates the trend, seasonality, and shape in the optimization objective of the reconstruction model to learn latent structural characteristics and capture the intrinsic pattern variation of time series. The proposed structure-aware optimization objective mechanism can assure the alignment between the original data and the reconstructed data in terms of structural features, thereby keeping consistency in global fluctuation and local characteristics. The mechanism is pluggable and applicable to any reconstruction-based methods, enhancing the model sensitivity to both point-wise anomalies and pattern-wise anomalies. Experimental results show that StrAD improves the performance of state-of-the-art reconstruction-based models across five real-world anomaly detection datasets.

The rise of agentic AI workflows unlocks novel opportunities for computer systems design and optimization. However, for specialized domains such as program synthesis, the relative scarcity of HDL and proprietary EDA resources online compared to more common programming tasks introduces challenges, often necessitating task-specific fine-tuning, high inference costs, and manually-crafted agent orchestration. In this work, we present VeriMaAS, a multi-agent framework designed to automatically compose agentic workflows for RTL code generation. Our key insight is to integrate formal verification feedback from HDL tools directly into workflow generation, reducing the cost of gradient-based updates or prolonged reasoning traces. Our method improves synthesis performance by 5-7% for pass@k over fine-tuned baselines, while requiring only a few hundred training examples, representing an order-of-magnitude reduction in supervision cost.

Model inversion attacks (MIAs) aim to reconstruct class-representative samples from trained models. Recent generative MIAs utilize generative adversarial networks to learn image priors that guide the inversion process, yielding reconstructions with high visual quality and strong fidelity to the private training data. To explore the reason behind their effectiveness, we begin by examining the gradients of inversion loss with respect to synthetic inputs, and find that these gradients are surprisingly noisy. Further analysis reveals that generative inversion implicitly denoises these gradients by projecting them onto the tangent space of the generator manifold, filtering out off-manifold components while preserving informative directions aligned with the manifold. Our empirical measurements show that, in models trained with standard supervision, loss gradients often exhibit large angular deviations from the data manifold, indicating poor alignment with class-relevant directions. This observation motivates our central hypothesis: models become more vulnerable to MIAs when their loss gradients align more closely with the generator manifold. We validate this hypothesis by designing a novel training objective that explicitly promotes such alignment. Building on this insight, we further introduce a training-free approach to enhance gradient-manifold alignment during inversion, leading to consistent improvements over state-of-the-art generative MIAs.

Learning physical dynamics from data is a fundamental challenge in machine learning and scientific modeling. Real-world observational data are inherently incomplete and irregularly sampled, posing significant challenges for existing data-driven approaches. In this work, we propose a principled diffusion-based framework for learning physical systems from incomplete training samples. To this end, our method strategically partitions each such sample into observed context and unobserved query components through a carefully designed splitting strategy, then trains a conditional diffusion model to reconstruct the missing query portions given available contexts. This formulation enables accurate imputation across arbitrary observation patterns without requiring complete data supervision. Specifically, we provide theoretical analysis demonstrating that our diffusion training paradigm on incomplete data achieves asymptotic convergence to the true complete generative process under mild regularity conditions. Empirically, we show that our method significantly outperforms existing baselines on synthetic and real-world physical dynamics benchmarks, including fluid flows and weather systems, with particularly strong performance in limited and irregular observation regimes. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our theoretically principled approach for learning and imputing partially observed dynamics. Learning physical dynamics from observational data represents a cornerstone challenge in machine learning and scientific computing, with applications spanning weather forecasting (Conti, 2024; Zhang et al., 2025b), fluid dynamics (Wang et al., 2024; Brunton & Kutz, 2024), biological systems modeling (Qi et al., 2024; Goshisht, 2024), and beyond. Classical physics-based approaches require explicit specification of governing equations and boundary conditions, while data-driven methods offer the promise of discovering hidden dynamics directly from observations (Luo et al., 2025; Meng et al., 2025). However, a fundamental bottleneck persists: real-world observational data are inherently incomplete, irregularly sampled, and subject to various forms of missing information, making it difficult for existing approaches to learn accurate representations of the underlying dynamics.

Language models often struggle with idiomatic, figurative, or context-sensitive inputs, not because they produce flawed outputs, but because they misinterpret the input from the outset. We propose an input-only method for anticipating such failures using token-level likelihood features inspired by surprisal and the Uniform Information Density hypothesis. These features capture localized uncertainty in input comprehension and outperform standard baselines across five linguistically challenging datasets. We show that span-localized features improve error detection for larger models, while smaller models benefit from global patterns. Our method requires no access to outputs or hidden activations, offering a lightweight and generalizable approach to pre-generation error prediction.

Estimating hidden states in dynamical systems, also known as optimal filtering, is a long-standing problem in various fields of science and engineering. In this paper, we introduce a general filtering framework, \textbf{LLM-Filter}, which leverages large language models (LLMs) for state estimation by embedding noisy observations with text prototypes. In various experiments for classical dynamical systems, we find that first, state estimation can significantly benefit from the reasoning knowledge embedded in pre-trained LLMs. By achieving proper modality alignment with the frozen LLM, LLM-Filter outperforms the state-of-the-art learning-based approaches. Second, we carefully design the prompt structure, System-as-Prompt (SaP), incorporating task instructions that enable the LLM to understand the estimation tasks. Guided by these prompts, LLM-Filter exhibits exceptional generalization, capable of performing filtering tasks accurately in changed or even unseen environments. We further observe a scaling-law behavior in LLM-Filter, where accuracy improves with larger model sizes and longer training times. These findings make LLM-Filter a promising foundation model of filtering.