This paper applies neural network models to forecast inflation. The use of a particular recurrent neural network, the long-short term memory model, or LSTM, that summarizes macroeconomic information into common components is a major contribution of the paper. Results from an exercise with US data indicate that the estimated neural nets usually present better forecasting performance than standard benchmarks, especially at long horizons. The LSTM in particular is found to outperform the traditional feed-forward network at long horizons, suggesting an advantage of the recurrent model in capturing the long-term trend of inflation. This finding can be rationalized by the so called long memory of the LSTM that incorporates relatively old information in the forecast as long as accuracy is improved, while economizing in the number of estimated parameters. Interestingly, the neural nets containing macroeconomic information capture well the features of inflation during and after the Great Recession, possibly indicating a role for nonlinearities and macro information in this episode. The estimated common components used in the forecast seem able to capture the business cycle dynamics, as well as information on prices.

Self-driving vehicles must perceive and predict the future positions of nearby actors in order to avoid collisions and drive safely. A learned deep learning module is often responsible for this task, requiring large-scale, high-quality training datasets. As data collection is often significantly cheaper than labeling in this domain, the decision of which subset of examples to label can have a profound impact on model performance. Active learning techniques, which leverage the state of the current model to iteratively select examples for labeling, offer a promising solution to this problem. However, despite the appeal of this approach, there has been little scientific analysis of active learning approaches for the perception and prediction (P&P) problem. In this work, we study active learning techniques for P&P and find that the traditional active learning formulation is ill-suited for the P&P setting. We thus introduce generalizations that ensure that our approach is both cost-aware and allows for fine-grained selection of examples through partially labeled scenes. Our experiments on a real-world, large-scale self-driving dataset suggest that fine-grained selection can improve the performance across perception, prediction, and downstream planning tasks.

Object detection has been one of the most active topics in computer vision for the past years. Recent works have mainly focused on pushing the state-of-the-art in the general-purpose COCO benchmark. However, the use of such detection frameworks in specific applications such as autonomous driving is yet an area to be addressed. This study presents an enhanced 2D object detector based on Faster R-CNN that is better suited for the context of autonomous vehicles. Two main aspects are improved: the anchor generation procedure and the performance drop in minority classes. The default uniform anchor configuration is not suitable in this scenario due to the perspective projection of the vehicle cameras. Therefore, we propose a perspective-aware methodology that divides the image into key regions via clustering and uses evolutionary algorithms to optimize the base anchors for each of them. Furthermore, we add a module that enhances the precision of the second-stage header network by including the spatial information of the candidate regions proposed in the first stage. We also explore different re-weighting strategies to address the foreground-foreground class imbalance, showing that the use of a reduced version of focal loss can significantly improve the detection of difficult and underrepresented objects in two-stage detectors. Finally, we design an ensemble model to combine the strengths of the different learning strategies. Our proposal is evaluated with the Waymo Open Dataset, which is the most extensive and diverse up to date. The results demonstrate an average accuracy improvement of 6.13% mAP when using the best single model, and of 9.69% mAP with the ensemble. The proposed modifications over the Faster R-CNN do not increase computational cost and can easily be extended to optimize other anchor-based detection frameworks.

The recent availability of low-power neural accelerator hardware, combined with improvements in end-to-end neural facial recognition algorithms provides, enabling technology for on-device facial authentication. The present research work examines the effects of directional lighting on a State-of-Art(SoA) neural face recognizer. A synthetic re-lighting technique is used to augment data samples due to the lack of public data-sets with sufficient directional lighting variations. Top lighting and its variants (top-left, top-right) are found to have minimal effect on accuracy, while bottom-left or bottom-right directional lighting has the most pronounced effects. Following the fine-tuning of network weights, the face recognition model is shown to achieve close to the original Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC)performance across all lighting conditions and demonstrates an ability to generalize beyond the lighting augmentations used in the fine-tuning data-set. This work shows that an SoA neural face recognition model can be tuned to compensate for directional lighting effects, removing the need for a pre-processing step before applying facial recognition.

Learning temporal patterns from multivariate longitudinal data is challenging especially in cases when data is sporadic, as often seen in, e.g., healthcare applications where the data can suffer from irregularity and asynchronicity as the time between consecutive data points can vary across features and samples, hindering the application of existing deep learning models that are constructed for complete, evenly spaced data with fixed sequence lengths. In this paper, a novel deep learning-based model is developed for modeling multiple temporal features in sporadic data using an integrated deep learning architecture based on a recurrent neural network (RNN) unit and a continuous-time autoregressive (CAR) model. The proposed model, called CARRNN, uses a generalized discrete-time autoregressive model that is trainable end-to-end using neural networks modulated by time lags to describe the changes caused by the irregularity and asynchronicity. It is applied to multivariate time-series regression tasks using data provided for Alzheimer's disease progression modeling and intensive care unit (ICU) mortality rate prediction, where the proposed model based on a gated recurrent unit (GRU) achieves the lowest prediction errors among the proposed RNN-based models and state-of-the-art methods using GRUs and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks in their architecture.

Addressing shifts in data distributions is an important prerequisite for the deployment of deep learning models to real-world settings. A general approach to this problem involves the adjustment of models to a new domain through transfer learning. However, in many cases, this is not applicable in a post-hoc manner to deployed models and further parameter adjustments jeopardize safety certifications that were established beforehand. In such a context, we propose to deal with changes in the data distribution via guided data homogenization which shifts the burden of adaptation from the model to the data. This approach makes use of information about the training data contained implicitly in the deep learning model to learn a domain transfer function. This allows for a targeted deployment of models to unknown scenarios without changing the model itself. We demonstrate the potential of data homogenization through experiments on the CIFAR-10 and MNIST data sets.

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation is the problem of inferring how long a certain industrial asset can be expected to operate within its defined specifications. Deploying successful RUL prediction methods in real-life applications is a prerequisite for the design of intelligent maintenance strategies with the potential of drastically reducing maintenance costs and machine downtimes. In light of their superior performance in a wide range of engineering fields, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are natural candidates to tackle the challenges involved in the design of intelligent maintenance systems. In particular, given the potentially catastrophic consequences or substantial costs associated with maintenance decisions that are either too late or too early, it is desirable that ML algorithms provide uncertainty estimates alongside their predictions. However, standard data-driven methods used for uncertainty estimation in RUL problems do not scale well to large datasets or are not sufficiently expressive to model the high-dimensional mapping from raw sensor data to RUL estimates. In this work, we consider Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) as possible solutions to the aforementioned limitations. We perform a thorough evaluation and comparison of several variants of DGPs applied to RUL predictions. The performance of the algorithms is evaluated on the N-CMAPSS (New Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation) dataset from NASA for aircraft engines. The results show that the proposed methods are able to provide very accurate RUL predictions along with sensible uncertainty estimates, providing more reliable solutions for (safety-critical) real-life industrial applications.

The discrepancy between the cost function used for training a speech enhancement model and human auditory perception usually makes the quality of enhanced speech unsatisfactory. Objective evaluation metrics which consider human perception can hence serve as a bridge to reduce the gap. Our previously proposed MetricGAN was designed to optimize objective metrics by connecting the metric with a discriminator. Because only the scores of the target evaluation functions are needed during training, the metrics can even be non-differentiable. In this study, we propose a MetricGAN+ in which three training techniques incorporating domain-knowledge of speech processing are proposed. With these techniques, experimental results on the VoiceBank-DEMAND dataset show that MetricGAN+ can increase PESQ score by 0.3 compared to the previous MetricGAN and achieve state-of-the-art results (PESQ score = 3.15).

Deep learning (DL) relies on massive amounts of labeled data, and improving its labeled sample-efficiency remains one of the most important problems since its advent. Semi-supervised learning (SSL) leverages unlabeled data that are more accessible than their labeled counterparts. Active learning (AL) selects unlabeled instances to be annotated by a human-in-the-loop in hopes of better performance with less labeled data. Given the accessible pool of unlabeled data in pool-based AL, it seems natural to use SSL when training and AL to update the labeled set; however, algorithms designed for their combination remain limited. In this work, we first prove that convergence of gradient descent on sufficiently wide ReLU networks can be expressed in terms of their Gram matrix' eigen-spectrum. Equipped with a few theoretical insights, we propose convergence rate control (CRC), an AL algorithm that selects unlabeled data to improve the problem conditioning upon inclusion to the labeled set, by formulating an acquisition step in terms of improving training dynamics. Extensive experiments show that SSL algorithms coupled with CRC can achieve high performance using very few labeled data.

Social networks are widely used for information consumption and dissemination, especially during time-critical events such as natural disasters. Despite its significantly large volume, social media content is often too noisy for direct use in any application. Therefore, it is important to filter, categorize, and concisely summarize the available content to facilitate effective consumption and decision-making. To address such issues automatic classification systems have been developed using supervised modeling approaches, thanks to the earlier efforts on creating labeled datasets. However, existing datasets are limited in different aspects (e.g., size, contains duplicates) and less suitable to support more advanced and data-hungry deep learning models. In this paper, we present a new large-scale dataset with ~77K human-labeled tweets, sampled from a pool of ~24 million tweets across 19 disaster events that happened between 2016 and 2019. Moreover, we propose a data collection and sampling pipeline, which is important for social media data sampling for human annotation. We report multiclass classification results using classic and deep learning (fastText and transformer) based models to set the ground for future studies. The dataset and associated resources are publicly available. https://crisisnlp.qcri.org/humaid_dataset.html