This paper introduces the Inside-Out Nested Particle Filter (IO-NPF), a novel, fully recursive, algorithm for amortized sequential Bayesian experimental design in the non-exchangeable setting. We frame policy optimization as maximum likelihood estimation in a non-Markovian state-space model, achieving (at most) $\mathcal{O}(T^2)$ computational complexity in the number of experiments. We provide theoretical convergence guarantees and introduce a backward sampling algorithm to reduce trajectory degeneracy. IO-NPF offers a practical, extensible, and provably consistent approach to sequential Bayesian experimental design, demonstrating improved efficiency over existing methods.

The development of autonomous vehicles has shown great potential to enhance the efficiency and safety of transportation systems. However, the decision-making issue in complex human-machine mixed traffic scenarios, such as unsignalized intersections, remains a challenge for autonomous vehicles. While reinforcement learning (RL) has been used to solve complex decision-making problems, existing RL methods still have limitations in dealing with cooperative decision-making of multiple connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs), ensuring safety during exploration, and simulating realistic human driver behaviors. In this paper, a novel and efficient algorithm, Multi-Agent Game-prior Attention Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (MA-GA-DDPG), is proposed to address these limitations. Our proposed algorithm formulates the decision-making problem of CAVs at unsignalized intersections as a decentralized multi-agent reinforcement learning problem and incorporates an attention mechanism to capture interaction dependencies between ego CAV and other agents. The attention weights between the ego vehicle and other agents are then used to screen interaction objects and obtain prior hierarchical game relations, based on which a safety inspector module is designed to improve the traffic safety. Furthermore, both simulation and hardware-in-the-loop experiments were conducted, demonstrating that our method outperforms other baseline approaches in terms of driving safety, efficiency, and comfort.

Directed graphical models such as Bayesian nets are often used to implement intelligent tutoring systems able to interact in real-time with learners in a purely automatic way. When coping with such models, keeping a bound on the number of parameters might be important for multiple reasons. First, as these models are typically based on expert knowledge, a huge number of parameters to elicit might discourage practitioners from adopting them. Moreover, the number of model parameters affects the complexity of the inferences, while a fast computation of the queries is needed for real-time feedback. We advocate logical gates with uncertainty for a compact parametrization of the conditional probability tables in the underlying Bayesian net used by tutoring systems. We discuss the semantics of the model parameters to elicit and the assumptions required to apply such approach in this domain. We also derive a dedicated inference scheme to speed up computations.

Outlier detection (OD) has a vast literature as it finds numerous applications in environmental monitoring, cybersecurity, finance, and medicine to name a few. Being an inherently unsupervised task, model selection is a key bottleneck for OD (both algorithm and hyperparameter selection) without label supervision. There is a long list of techniques to choose from -- both classical algorithms and deep neural architectures -- and while several studies report their hyperparameter sensitivity, the literature is quite slim on unsupervised model selection -- limiting the effective use of OD in practice. In this paper we present FoMo-0D, for zero/0-shot OD exploring a transformative new direction that bypasses the hurdle of model selection altogether (!), thus breaking new ground. The fundamental idea behind FoMo-0D is the Prior-data Fitted Networks, recently introduced by Muller et al.(2022), which trains a Transformer model on a large body of synthetically generated data from a prior data distribution. In essence, FoMo-0D is a pretrained Foundation Model for zero/0-shot OD on tabular data, which can directly predict the (outlier/inlier) label of any test data at inference time, by merely a single forward pass -- making obsolete the need for choosing an algorithm/architecture, tuning its associated hyperparameters, and even training any model parameters when given a new OD dataset. Extensive experiments on 57 public benchmark datasets against 26 baseline methods show that FoMo-0D performs statistically no different from the top 2nd baseline, while significantly outperforming the majority of the baselines, with an average inference time of 7.7 ms per test sample.

In the Naive Bayes classification model the class conditional densities are estimated as the products of their marginal densities along the cardinal basis directions. We study the problem of obtaining an alternative basis for this factorisation with the objective of enhancing the discriminatory power of the associated classification model. We formulate the problem as a projection pursuit to find the optimal linear projection on which to perform classification. Optimality is determined based on the multinomial likelihood within which probabilities are estimated using the Naive Bayes factorisation of the projected data. Projection pursuit offers the added benefits of dimension reduction and visualisation. We discuss an intuitive connection with class conditional independent components analysis, and show how this is realised visually in practical applications. The performance of the resulting classification models is investigated using a large collection of (162) publicly available benchmark data sets and in comparison with relevant alternatives. We find that the proposed approach substantially outperforms other popular probabilistic discriminant analysis models and is highly competitive with Support Vector Machines.

Machine learning (ML) has seen exponential growth in recent years, finding applications in various domains such as finance, medicine, and cybersecurity. Malware remains a significant threat to modern computing, frequently used by attackers to compromise systems. While numerous machine learning-based approaches for malware detection achieve high performance, they often lack transparency and fail to explain their predictions. This is a critical drawback in malware analysis, where understanding the rationale behind detections is essential for security analysts to verify and disseminate information. Explainable AI (XAI) addresses this issue by maintaining high accuracy while producing models that provide clear, understandable explanations for their decisions. In this survey, we comprehensively review the current state-of-the-art ML-based malware detection techniques and popular XAI approaches. Additionally, we discuss research implementations and the challenges of explainable malware analysis. This theoretical survey serves as an entry point for researchers interested in XAI applications in malware detection. By analyzing recent advancements in explainable malware analysis, we offer a broad overview of the progress in this field, positioning our work as the first to extensively cover XAI methods for malware classification and detection.

Probability estimation of tree topologies is one of the fundamental tasks in phylogenetic inference. The recently proposed subsplit Bayesian networks (SBNs) provide a powerful probabilistic graphical model for tree topology probability estimation by properly leveraging the hierarchical structure of phylogenetic trees. However, the expectation maximization (EM) method currently used for learning SBN parameters does not scale up to large data sets. In this paper, we introduce several computationally efficient methods for training SBNs and show that variance reduction could be the key for better performance. Furthermore, we also introduce the variance reduction technique to improve the optimization of SBN parameters for variational Bayesian phylogenetic inference (VBPI). Extensive synthetic and real data experiments demonstrate that our methods outperform previous baseline methods on the tasks of tree topology probability estimation as well as Bayesian phylogenetic inference using SBNs.

In recent years, neural networks (NNs) have become increasingly popular for surrogate modeling tasks in mechanics and materials modeling applications. While traditional NNs are deterministic functions that rely solely on data to learn the input--output mapping, casting NN training within a Bayesian framework allows to quantify uncertainties, in particular epistemic uncertainties that arise from lack of training data, and to integrate a priori knowledge via the Bayesian prior. However, the high dimensionality and non-physicality of the NN parameter space, and the complex relationship between parameters (NN weights) and predicted outputs, renders both prior design and posterior inference challenging. In this work we present a novel BNN training scheme based on anchored ensembling that can integrate a priori information available in the function space, from e.g. low-fidelity models. The anchoring scheme makes use of low-rank correlations between NN parameters, learnt from pre-training to realizations of the functional prior. We also perform a study to demonstrate how correlations between NN weights, which are often neglected in existing BNN implementations, is critical to appropriately transfer knowledge between the function-space and parameter-space priors. Performance of our novel BNN algorithm is first studied on a small 1D example to illustrate the algorithm's behavior in both interpolation and extrapolation settings. Then, a thorough assessment is performed on a multi--input--output materials surrogate modeling example, where we demonstrate the algorithm's capabilities both in terms of accuracy and quality of the uncertainty estimation, for both in-distribution and out-of-distribution data.

An important task in high-dimensional statistics is learning the parameters or dependency structure of an undirected graphical model, or Markov random field (MRF). Much of the prior work on this problem assumes access to i.i.d. samples from the MRF distribution and state-of-the-art algorithms succeed using $n^{\Theta(k)}$ runtime, where $n$ is the dimension and $k$ is the order of the interactions. However, well-known reductions from the sparse parity with noise problem imply that given i.i.d. samples from a sparse, order-$k$ MRF, any learning algorithm likely requires $n^{\Omega(k)}$ time, impeding the potential for significant computational improvements. In this work, we demonstrate that these fundamental barriers for learning MRFs can surprisingly be completely circumvented when learning from natural, dynamical samples. We show that in bounded-degree MRFs, the dependency structure and parameters can be recovered using a trajectory of Glauber dynamics of length $O(n \log n)$ with runtime $O(n^2 \log n)$. The implicit constants depend only on the degree and non-degeneracy parameters of the model, but not the dimension $n$. In particular, learning MRFs from dynamics is $\textit{provably computationally easier}$ than learning from i.i.d. samples under standard hardness assumptions.

The goal of alpha factor mining is to discover indicative signals of investment opportunities from the historical financial market data of assets. Deep learning based alpha factor mining methods have shown to be powerful, which, however, lack of the interpretability, making them unacceptable in the risk-sensitive real markets. Alpha factors in formulaic forms are more interpretable and therefore favored by market participants, while the search space is complex and powerful explorative methods are urged. Recently, a promising framework is proposed for generating formulaic alpha factors using deep reinforcement learning, and quickly gained research focuses from both academia and industries. This paper first argues that the originally employed policy training method, i.e., Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), faces several important issues in the context of alpha factors mining, making it ineffective to explore the search space of the formula. Herein, a novel reinforcement learning based on the well-known REINFORCE algorithm is proposed. Given that the underlying state transition function adheres to the Dirac distribution, the Markov Decision Process within this framework exhibit minimal environmental variability, making REINFORCE algorithm more appropriate than PPO. A new dedicated baseline is designed to theoretically reduce the commonly suffered high variance of REINFORCE. Moreover, the information ratio is introduced as a reward shaping mechanism to encourage the generation of steady alpha factors that can better adapt to changes in market volatility. Experimental evaluations on various real assets data show that the proposed algorithm can increase the correlation with asset returns by 3.83%, and a stronger ability to obtain excess returns compared to the latest alpha factors mining methods, which meets the theoretical results well.