BBS leverages machine learning/statistical techniques to estimate the probability density of the search space and modifies the bisection step to split based on probability density rather than the traditional midpoint, allowing for the learned distribution of the search space to guide the search algorithm. Search space density estimation can flexibly be performed using supervised probabilistic machine learning techniques (e.g., Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, quantile regression) or unsupervised learning algorithms (e.g., Gaussian mixture models, kernel density estimation (KDE), maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)). We demonstrate significant efficiency gains of using BBS on both simulated data across a variety of distributions and in a real-world binary search use case of probing channel balances in the Bitcoin Lightning Network, for which we have deployed the BBS algorithm in a production setting. The concept of organizing data for efficient searching has ancient roots. One of the earliest known examples is the Inakibit-Anu tablet from Babylon (c. Similar sorting techniques were evident in name lists discovered on the Aegean Islands.

Despite often being perceived as morally objectionable, stereotypes are a common feature of social groups, a phenomenon that has often been attributed to biased motivations or limits on the ability to process information. We argue that one reason for this continued prevalence is that pre-existing expectations about how others will behave, in the context of social coordination, can change the behaviors of one's social partners, creating the very stereotype one expected to see, even in the absence of other potential sources of stereotyping. We use a computational model of dynamic social coordination to illustrate how this "feedback loop" can emerge, engendering and entrenching stereotypic behavior, and then show that human behavior on the task generates a comparable feedback loop. Notably, people's choices on the task are not related to social dominance or system justification, suggesting biased motivations are not necessary to maintain these stereotypes.

We introduce the first method of uncertainty quantification in the domain of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks, specifically focusing on (Higher Order) ReLUKANs to enhance computational efficiency given the computational demands of Bayesian methods. The method we propose is general in nature, providing access to both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. It is also capable of generalization to other various basis functions. We validate our method through a series of closure tests, including simple one-dimensional functions and application to the domain of (Stochastic) Partial Differential Equations. Referring to the latter, we demonstrate the method's ability to correctly identify functional dependencies introduced through the inclusion of a stochastic term. The code supporting this work can be found at https://github.com/wmdataphys/Bayesian-HR-KAN

Transporting between arbitrary distributions is a fundamental goal in generative modeling. Recently proposed diffusion bridge models provide a potential solution, but they rely on a joint distribution that is difficult to obtain in practice. Furthermore, formulations based on continuous domains limit their applicability to discrete domains such as graphs. To overcome these limitations, we propose Discrete Diffusion Schrödinger Bridge Matching (DDSBM), a novel framework that utilizes continuous-time Markov chains to solve the SB problem in a highdimensional discrete state space. Our approach extends Iterative Markovian Fitting to discrete domains, and we have proved its convergence to the SB. Furthermore, we adapt our framework for the graph transformation and show that our design choice of underlying dynamics characterized by independent modifications of nodes and edges can be interpreted as the entropy-regularized version of optimal transport with a cost function described by the graph edit distance. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework, we have applied DDSBM to molecular optimization in the field of chemistry. Experimental results demonstrate that DDSBM effectively optimizes molecules' property-of-interest with minimal graph transformation, successfully retaining other features. Transporting an initial distribution to a target distribution is a foundational concept in modern generative modeling. Denoising diffusion models (DDMs) have been highly influential in this area, with a primary focus on generating data distributions from simple prior (Sohl-Dickstein et al., 2015; Song & Ermon, 2019; Ho et al., 2020; Song et al., 2020; Kim et al., 2024b). Despite their promising results, setting the initial distribution as a simple prior makes DDMs hard to work in tasks where the initial distribution becomes a data distribution, such as image-to-image translation. To tackle this, diffusion bridge models (DBMs) extend DDMs to transport data between arbitrary distributions (Liu & Wu, 2023; Liu et al., 2023; Zhou et al., 2023).

Evaluating policies using off-policy data is crucial for applying reinforcement learning to real-world problems such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Previous methods for off-policy evaluation (OPE) generally suffer from high variance or irreducible bias, leading to unacceptably high prediction errors. In this work, we introduce STAR, a framework for OPE that encompasses a broad range of estimators -- which include existing OPE methods as special cases -- that achieve lower mean squared prediction errors. STAR leverages state abstraction to distill complex, potentially continuous problems into compact, discrete models which we call abstract reward processes (ARPs). Predictions from ARPs estimated from off-policy data are provably consistent (asymptotically correct). Rather than proposing a specific estimator, we present a new framework for OPE and empirically demonstrate that estimators within STAR outperform existing methods. The best STAR estimator outperforms baselines in all twelve cases studied, and even the median STAR estimator surpasses the baselines in seven out of the twelve cases.

In this work, we explore the theoretical properties of conditional deep generative models under the statistical framework of distribution regression where the response variable lies in a high-dimensional ambient space but concentrates around a potentially lower-dimensional manifold. More specifically, we study the large-sample properties of a likelihood-based approach for estimating these models. Our results lead to the convergence rate of a sieve maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for estimating the conditional distribution (and its devolved counterpart) of the response given predictors in the Hellinger (Wasserstein) metric. Our rates depend solely on the intrinsic dimension and smoothness of the true conditional distribution. These findings provide an explanation of why conditional deep generative models can circumvent the curse of dimensionality from the perspective of statistical foundations and demonstrate that they can learn a broader class of nearly singular conditional distributions. Our analysis also emphasizes the importance of introducing a small noise perturbation to the data when they are supported sufficiently close to a manifold. Finally, in our numerical studies, we demonstrate the effective implementation of the proposed approach using both synthetic and real-world datasets, which also provide complementary validation to our theoretical findings.

Traditionally, neural network training has been primarily viewed as an approximation of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). This interpretation originated in a time when training for multiple epochs on small datasets was common and performance was data bound; but it falls short in the era of large-scale single-epoch trainings ushered in by large self-supervised setups, like language models. In this new setup, performance is compute-bound, but data is readily available. As models became more powerful, in-context learning (ICL), i.e., learning in a single forward-pass based on the context, emerged as one of the dominant paradigms. In this paper, we argue that a more useful interpretation of neural network behavior in this era is as an approximation of the true posterior, as defined by the data-generating process. We demonstrate this interpretations' power for ICL and its usefulness to predict generalizations to previously unseen tasks. We show how models become robust in-context learners by effectively composing knowledge from their training data. We illustrate this with experiments that reveal surprising generalizations, all explicable through the exact posterior. Finally, we show the inherent constraints of the generalization capabilities of posteriors and the limitations of neural networks in approximating these posteriors.

Amortized inference is the task of training a parametric model, such as a neural network, to approximate a distribution with a given unnormalized density where exact sampling is intractable. When sampling is implemented as a sequential decision-making process, reinforcement learning (RL) methods, such as generative flow networks, can be used to train the sampling policy. Off-policy RL training facilitates the discovery of diverse, high-reward candidates, but existing methods still face challenges in efficient exploration. We propose to use an adaptive training distribution (the Teacher) to guide the training of the primary amortized sampler (the Student) by prioritizing high-loss regions. The Teacher, an auxiliary behavior model, is trained to sample high-error regions of the Student and can generalize across unexplored modes, thereby enhancing mode coverage by providing an efficient training curriculum. We validate the effectiveness of this approach in a synthetic environment designed to present an exploration challenge, two diffusion-based sampling tasks, and four biochemical discovery tasks demonstrating its ability to improve sample efficiency and mode coverage.

Causal models seek to unravel the cause-effect relationships among variables from observed data, as opposed to mere mappings among them, as traditional regression models do. This paper introduces a novel causal discovery algorithm designed for settings in which variables exhibit linearly sparse relationships. In such scenarios, the causal links represented by directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) can be encapsulated in a structural matrix. The proposed approach leverages the structural matrix's ability to reconstruct data and the statistical properties it imposes on the data to identify the correct structural matrix. This method does not rely on independence tests or graph fitting procedures, making it suitable for scenarios with limited training data. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the well-known PC, GES, BIC exact search, and LINGAM-based methods in recovering linearly sparse causal structures.

Previously, we showed that computational mechanic's causal states -- predictively-equivalent trajectory classes for a stochastic dynamical system -- can be cast into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The result is a widely-applicable method that infers causal structure directly from very different kinds of observations and systems. Here, we expand this method to explicitly introduce the causal diffusion components it produces. These encode the kernel causal-state estimates as a set of coordinates in a reduced dimension space. We show how each component extracts predictive features from data and demonstrate their application on four examples: first, a simple pendulum -- an exactly solvable system; second, a molecular-dynamic trajectory of $n$-butane -- a high-dimensional system with a well-studied energy landscape; third, the monthly sunspot sequence -- the longest-running available time series of direct observations; and fourth, multi-year observations of an active crop field -- a set of heterogeneous observations of the same ecosystem taken for over a decade. In this way, we demonstrate that the empirical kernel causal-states algorithm robustly discovers predictive structures for systems with widely varying dimensionality and stochasticity.