Humanity faces numerous problems of common-pool resource appropriation. This class of multi-agent social dilemma includes the problems of ensuring sustainable use of fresh water, common fisheries, grazing pastures, and irrigation systems. Abstract models of common-pool resource appropriation based on non-cooperative game theory predict that self-interested agents will generally fail to find socially positive equilibria--a phenomenon called the tragedy of the commons. However, in reality, human societies are sometimes able to discover and implement stable cooperative solutions. Decades of behavioral game theory research have sought to uncover aspects of human behavior that make this possible.

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Large language models (LLMs) have proven to be remarkably efficient, both across a wide range of natural language processing tasks and well beyond them. However, a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the origins of their impressive performance remains elusive. In this paper, we approach this challenging task by drawing an equivalence between generic autoregressive language models with vocabulary of size $T$ and context window of size $K$ and Markov chains defined on a finite state space of size $\mathcal{O}(T^K)$. We derive several surprising findings related to the existence of a stationary distribution of Markov chains that capture the inference power of LLMs, their speed of convergence to it, and the influence of the temperature on the latter. We then prove pre-training and in-context generalization bounds and show how the drawn equivalence allows us to enrich their interpretation. Finally, we illustrate our theoretical guarantees with experiments on several recent LLMs to highlight how they capture the behavior observed in practice.

Reinforcement learning encounters challenges in various environments related to robustness and explainability. Traditional Q-learning algorithms cannot effectively make decisions and utilize the historical learning experience. To overcome these limitations, we propose Cognitive Belief-Driven Q-Learning (CBDQ), which integrates subjective belief modeling into the Q-learning framework, enhancing decision-making accuracy by endowing agents with human-like learning and reasoning capabilities. Drawing inspiration from cognitive science, our method maintains a subjective belief distribution over the expectation of actions, leveraging a cluster-based subjective belief model that enables agents to reason about the potential probability associated with each decision. CBDQ effectively mitigates overestimated phenomena and optimizes decision-making policies by integrating historical experiences with current contextual information, mimicking the dynamics of human decision-making. We evaluate the proposed method on discrete control benchmark tasks in various complicate environments. The results demonstrate that CBDQ exhibits stronger adaptability, robustness, and human-like characteristics in handling these environments, outperforming other baselines. We hope this work will give researchers a fresh perspective on understanding and explaining Q-learning.

In this paper, we present our proposed approach for active tracking to increase the autonomy of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) using event cameras, low-energy imaging sensors that offer significant advantages in speed and dynamic range. The proposed tracking controller is designed to respond to visual feedback from the mounted event sensor, adjusting the drone movements to follow the target. To leverage the full motion capabilities of a quadrotor and the unique properties of event sensors, we propose an end-to-end deep-reinforcement learning (DRL) framework that maps raw sensor data from event streams directly to control actions for the UAV. To learn an optimal policy under highly variable and challenging conditions, we opt for a simulation environment with domain randomization for effective transfer to real-world environments. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through experiments in challenging scenarios, including fast-moving targets and changing lighting conditions, which result in improved generalization capabilities.

Adapting a pre-trained foundation model on downstream tasks should ensure robustness against distribution shifts without the need to retrain the whole model. Although existing weight interpolation methods are simple yet effective, we argue their static nature limits downstream performance while achieving efficiency. In this work, we propose DaWin, a training-free dynamic weight interpolation method that leverages the entropy of individual models over each unlabeled test sample to assess model expertise, and compute per-sample interpolation coefficients dynamically. Unlike previous works that typically rely on additional training to learn such coefficients, our approach requires no training. Then, we propose a mixture modeling approach that greatly reduces inference overhead raised by dynamic interpolation. We validate DaWin on the large-scale visual recognition benchmarks, spanning 14 tasks across robust fine-tuning - ImageNet and derived five distribution shift benchmarks - and multi-task learning with eight classification tasks. Results demonstrate that DaWin achieves significant performance gain in considered settings, with minimal computational overhead. We further discuss DaWin's analytic behavior to explain its empirical success. The emergence of foundation models (Bommasani et al., 2021; Radford et al., 2021; Brown et al., 2020) has significantly lowered the barrier to deploying artificial intelligence solutions across a wide range of real-world problems. Leveraging the strong general knowledge acquired through large-scale pre-training, foundation models can be efficiently adapted for numerous tasks. However, recent studies have shown that while fine-tuning improves performance on specific downstream tasks, it may often undermine the model's generalizability and robustness (Wortsman et al., 2022b). For example, a model fine-tuned on ImageNet has better accuracy on in-distribution (ID) data yet may underperform in out-of-distribution (OOD) data such as ImageNet-A (Hendrycks et al., 2021b).

Monte Carlo Exploring Starts (MCES), which aims to learn the optimal policy using only sample returns, is a simple and natural algorithm in reinforcement learning which has been shown to converge under various conditions. However, the convergence rate analysis for MCES-style algorithms in the form of sample complexity has received very little attention. In this paper we develop a finite sample bound for a modified MCES algorithm which solves the stochastic shortest path problem. To this end, we prove a novel result on the convergence rate of the policy iteration algorithm. This result implies that with probability at least $1-\delta$, the algorithm returns an optimal policy after $\tilde{O}(SAK^3\log^3\frac{1}{\delta})$ sampled episodes, where $S$ and $A$ denote the number of states and actions respectively, $K$ is a proxy for episode length, and $\tilde{O}$ hides logarithmic factors and constants depending on the rewards of the environment that are assumed to be known.

Existing methods for anomaly detection often fall short due to their inability to handle the complexity, heterogeneity, and high dimensionality inherent in real-world mobility data. In this paper, we propose DeepBayesic, a novel framework that integrates Bayesian principles with deep neural networks to model the underlying multivariate distributions from sparse and complex datasets. Unlike traditional models, DeepBayesic is designed to manage heterogeneous inputs, accommodating both continuous and categorical data to provide a more comprehensive understanding of mobility patterns. The framework features customized neural density estimators and hybrid architectures, allowing for flexibility in modeling diverse feature distributions and enabling the use of specialized neural networks tailored to different data types. Our approach also leverages agent embeddings for personalized anomaly detection, enhancing its ability to distinguish between normal and anomalous behaviors for individual agents. We evaluate our approach on several mobility datasets, demonstrating significant improvements over state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods. Our results indicate that incorporating personalization and advanced sequence modeling techniques can substantially enhance the ability to detect subtle and complex anomalies in spatiotemporal event sequences.

In order to train agents that can quickly adapt to new objectives or reward functions, efficient unsupervised representation learning in sequential decision-making environments can be important. Frameworks such as the Exogenous Block Markov Decision Process (Ex-BMDP) have been proposed to formalize this representation-learning problem (Efroni et al., 2022b). In the Ex-BMDP framework, the agent's high-dimensional observations of the environment have two latent factors: a controllable factor, which evolves deterministically within a small state space according to the agent's actions, and an exogenous factor, which represents time-correlated noise, and can be highly complex. The goal of the representation learning problem is to learn an encoder that maps from observations into the controllable latent space, as well as the dynamics of this space. Efroni et al. (2022b) has shown that this is possible with a sample complexity that depends only on the size of the controllable latent space, and not on the size of the noise factor. However, this prior work has focused on the episodic setting, where the controllable latent state resets to a specific start state after a finite horizon. By contrast, if the agent can only interact with the environment in a single continuous trajectory, prior works have not established sample-complexity bounds. We propose STEEL, the first provably sample-efficient algorithm for learning the controllable dynamics of an Ex-BMDP from a single trajectory, in the function approximation setting. STEEL has a sample complexity that depends only on the sizes of the controllable latent space and the encoder function class, and (at worst linearly) on the mixing time of the exogenous noise factor. We prove that STEEL is correct and sample-efficient, and demonstrate STEEL on two toy problems. Code is available at: https://github.com/midi-lab/steel.

Medical time series datasets feature missing values that need data imputation methods, however, conventional machine learning models fall short due to a lack of uncertainty quantification in predictions. Among these models, the CATSI (Context-Aware Time Series Imputation) stands out for its effectiveness by incorporating a context vector into the imputation process, capturing the global dependencies of each patient. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian Context-Aware Time Series Imputation (Bayes-CATSI) framework which leverages uncertainty quantification offered by variational inference. We consider the time series derived from electroencephalography (EEG), electrooculography (EOG), electromyography (EMG), electrocardiology (EKG). Variational Inference assumes the shape of the posterior distribution and through minimization of the Kullback-Leibler(KL) divergence it finds variational densities that are closest to the true posterior distribution. Thus , we integrate the variational Bayesian deep learning layers into the CATSI model. Our results show that Bayes-CATSI not only provides uncertainty quantification but also achieves superior imputation performance compared to the CATSI model. Specifically, an instance of Bayes-CATSI outperforms CATSI by 9.57 %. We provide an open-source code implementation for applying Bayes-CATSI to other medical data imputation problems.