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 Learning Graphical Models


Efficient Non-Myopic Layered Bayesian Optimization For Large-Scale Bathymetric Informative Path Planning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Informative path planning (IPP) applied to bathymetric mapping allows AUVs to focus on feature-rich areas to quickly reduce uncertainty and increase mapping efficiency. Existing methods based on Bayesian optimization (BO) over Gaussian Process (GP) maps work well on small scenarios but they are short-sighted and computationally heavy when mapping larger areas, hindering deployment in real applications. To overcome this, we present a 2-layered BO IPP method that performs non-myopic, real-time planning in a tree search fashion over large Stochastic Variational GP maps, while respecting the AUV motion constraints and accounting for localization uncertainty. Our framework outperforms the standard industrial lawn-mowing pattern and a myopic baseline in a set of hardware in the loop (HIL) experiments in an embedded platform over real bathymetry.


BI-EqNO: Generalized Approximate Bayesian Inference with an Equivariant Neural Operator Framework

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian inference offers a robust framework for updating prior beliefs based on new data using Bayes' theorem, but exact inference is often computationally infeasible, necessitating approximate methods. Though widely used, these methods struggle to estimate marginal likelihoods accurately, particularly due to the rigid functional structures of deterministic models like Gaussian processes and the limitations of small sample sizes in stochastic models like the ensemble Kalman method. In this work, we introduce BI-EqNO, an equivariant neural operator framework for generalized approximate Bayesian inference, designed to enhance both deterministic and stochastic approaches. BI-EqNO transforms priors into posteriors conditioned on observation data through data-driven training. The framework is flexible, supporting diverse prior and posterior representations with arbitrary discretizations and varying numbers of observations. Crucially, BI-EqNO's architecture ensures (1) permutation equivariance between prior and posterior representations, and (2) permutation invariance with respect to observational data. We demonstrate BI-EqNO's utility through two examples: (1) as a generalized Gaussian process (gGP) for regression, and (2) as an ensemble neural filter (EnNF) for sequential data assimilation. Results show that gGP outperforms traditional Gaussian processes by offering a more flexible representation of covariance functions. Additionally, EnNF not only outperforms the ensemble Kalman filter in small-ensemble settings but also has the potential to function as a "super" ensemble filter, capable of representing and integrating multiple ensemble filters for enhanced assimilation performance. This study highlights BI-EqNO's versatility and effectiveness, improving Bayesian inference through data-driven training while reducing computational costs across various applications.


Mean-Field Simulation-Based Inference for Cosmological Initial Conditions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reconstructing cosmological initial conditions (ICs) from late-time observations is a difficult task, which relies on the use of computationally expensive simulators alongside sophisticated statistical methods to navigate multi-million dimensional parameter spaces. We present a simple method for Bayesian field reconstruction based on modeling the posterior distribution of the initial matter density field to be diagonal Gaussian in Fourier space, with its covariance and the mean estimator being the trainable parts of the algorithm. Training and sampling are extremely fast (training: $\sim 1 \, \mathrm{h}$ on a GPU, sampling: $\lesssim 3 \, \mathrm{s}$ for 1000 samples at resolution $128^3$), and our method supports industry-standard (non-differentiable) $N$-body simulators. We verify the fidelity of the obtained IC samples in terms of summary statistics.


Adversarial Inception for Bounded Backdoor Poisoning in Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent works have demonstrated the vulnerability of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) algorithms against training-time, backdoor poisoning attacks. These attacks induce pre-determined, adversarial behavior in the agent upon observing a fixed trigger during deployment while allowing the agent to solve its intended task during training. Prior attacks rely on arbitrarily large perturbations to the agent's rewards to achieve both of these objectives - leaving them open to detection. Thus, in this work, we propose a new class of backdoor attacks against DRL which achieve state of the art performance while minimally altering the agent's rewards. These "inception" attacks train the agent to associate the targeted adversarial behavior with high returns by inducing a disjunction between the agent's chosen action and the true action executed in the environment during training. We formally define these attacks and prove they can achieve both adversarial objectives. We then devise an online inception attack which significantly out-performs prior attacks under bounded reward constraints.


Statistical Inference for Temporal Difference Learning with Linear Function Approximation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Statistical inference tasks, such as constructing confidence regions or simultaneous confidence intervals, are often addressed by deriving distributional theory such as central limit theorems (CLTs) for the estimator in use. Due to the high dimensionality of modern science and engineering applications, there has been a surge of interests in deriving convergence results that are valid in a finite-sample manner. In Reinforcement Learning (RL), a discipline that underpins many recent machine learning breakthroughs (Agarwal et al. (2019); Sutton and Barto (2018)) one central question is to evaluate with confidence the quality of a given policy, measured by its value function. As RL is often modeled as decision making in Markov decision processes (MDPs), the task of statistical inference needs to accommodate the online nature of the sampling mechanism. Temporal Difference (TD) learning (Sutton (1988)) is arguably the most widely used algorithm designed for this purpose. TD learning, which is an instance of stochastic approximation (SA) method (Robbins and Monro (1951)), approximates the value function of a given policy in an iterative manner. Towards understanding the non-asymptotic convergence rate of TD to the target value function, extensive recent efforts have been made (see, e.g.


Wireless Human-Machine Collaboration in Industry 5.0

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--Wireless Human-Machine Collaboration (WHMC) represents a critical advancement for Industry 5.0, enabling seamless interaction between humans and machines across geographically distributed systems. As the WHMC systems become increasingly important for achieving complex collaborative control tasks, ensuring their stability is essential for practical deployment and long-term operation. Stability analysis certifies how the closed-loop system will behave under model randomness, which is essential for systems operating with wireless communications. However, the fundamental stability analysis of the WHMC systems remains an unexplored challenge due to the intricate interplay between the stochastic nature of wireless communications, dynamic human operations, and the inherent complexities of control system dynamics. This paper establishes a fundamental WHMC model incorporating dual wireless loops for machine and human control. Our framework accounts for practical factors such as short-packet transmissions, fading channels, and advanced HARQ schemes. We model human control lag as a Markov process, which is crucial for capturing the stochastic nature of human interactions. Building on this model, we propose a stochastic cycle-cost-based approach to derive a stability condition for the WHMC system, expressed in terms of wireless channel statistics, human dynamics, and control parameters. Our findings are validated through extensive numerical simulations and a proof-of-concept experiment, where we developed and tested a novel wireless collaborative cart-pole control system. The results confirm the effectiveness of our approach and provide a robust framework for future research on WHMC systems in more complex environments. HE Fourth Industrial Revolution, known as Industry 4.0, envisions significantly increased automation and mechanization in manufacturing, driven by rapidly advancing cyber-physical systems (CPS) with minimal human intervention on the factory floor [1]. However, many dynamically changing and unforeseen control tasks in manufacturing, such as recon-figuring the production line, are challenging for autonomous machines to handle alone [2]. Therefore, humans are rein-troduced to the manufacturing process to collaborate with machines in the fifth industrial revolution, Industry 5.0 [3]. In the Industry 5.0 era, human-machine collaboration (HMC) emerges as a key enabling technology to boost productivity, efficiency, and sustainability by combining human's creativity, The work of W . Liu was supported by the Australian Research Council's Discovery Early Career Researcher A ward (DECRA) Project DE230100016.


Nonparametric Bayesian networks are typically faithful in the total variation metric

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We show that for a given DAG $G$, among all observational distributions of Bayesian networks over $G$ with arbitrary outcome spaces, the faithful distributions are `typical': they constitute a dense, open set with respect to the total variation metric. As a consequence, the set of faithful distributions is non-empty, and the unfaithful distributions are nowhere dense. We extend this result to the space of Bayesian networks, where the properties hold for Bayesian networks instead of distributions of Bayesian networks. As special cases, we show that these results also hold for the faithful parameters of the subclasses of linear Gaussian -- and discrete Bayesian networks, giving a topological analogue of the measure-zero results of Spirtes et al. (1993) and Meek (1995). Finally, we extend our topological results and the measure-zero results of Spirtes et al. and Meek to Bayesian networks with latent variables.


On Divergence Measures for Training GFlowNets

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) are amortized inference models designed to sample from unnormalized distributions over composable objects, with applications in generative modeling for tasks in fields such as causal discovery, NLP, and drug discovery. Traditionally, the training procedure for GFlowNets seeks to minimize the expected log-squared difference between a proposal (forward policy) and a target (backward policy) distribution, which enforces certain flow-matching conditions. While this training procedure is closely related to variational inference (VI), directly attempting standard Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence minimization can lead to proven biased and potentially high-variance estimators. Therefore, we first review four divergence measures, namely, Renyi-$\alpha$'s, Tsallis-$\alpha$'s, reverse and forward KL's, and design statistically efficient estimators for their stochastic gradients in the context of training GFlowNets. Then, we verify that properly minimizing these divergences yields a provably correct and empirically effective training scheme, often leading to significantly faster convergence than previously proposed optimization. To achieve this, we design control variates based on the REINFORCE leave-one-out and score-matching estimators to reduce the variance of the learning objectives' gradients. Our work contributes by narrowing the gap between GFlowNets training and generalized variational approximations, paving the way for algorithmic ideas informed by the divergence minimization viewpoint.


Likelihood-Free Inference and Hierarchical Data Assimilation for Geological Carbon Storage

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data assimilation will be essential for the management and expansion of geological carbon storage operations. In traditional data assimilation approaches a fixed set of geological hyperparameters, such as mean and standard deviation of log-permeability, is often assumed. Such hyperparameters, however, may be highly uncertain in practical CO2 storage applications. In this study, we develop a hierarchical data assimilation framework for carbon storage that treats hyperparameters as uncertain variables characterized by hyperprior distributions. To deal with the computationally intractable likelihood function in hyperparameter estimation, we apply a likelihood-free (or simulation-based) inference algorithm, specifically sequential Monte Carlo-based approximate Bayesian computation (SMC-ABC), to draw independent posterior samples of hyperparameters given dynamic monitoring-well data. In the second step we use an ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) procedure to provide posterior realizations of grid-block permeability. To reduce computational costs, a 3D recurrent R-U-Net deep-learning surrogate model is applied for forward function evaluations. The accuracy of the surrogate model is established through comparisons to high-fidelity simulation results. A rejection sampling (RS) procedure for data assimilation is applied to provide reference posterior results. Detailed data assimilation results from SMC-ABC-ESMDA are compared to those from the reference RS method. These include marginal posterior distributions of hyperparameters, pairwise posterior samples, and history matching results for pressure and saturation at the monitoring location. Close agreement is achieved with 'converged' RS results, for two synthetic true models, in all quantities considered. Importantly, the SMC-ABC-ESMDA procedure provides speedup of 1-2 orders of magnitude relative to RS for the two cases.


Acoustic Model Optimization over Multiple Data Sources: Merging and Valuation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Due to the rising awareness of privacy protection and the voluminous scale of speech data, it is becoming infeasible for Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) system developers to train the acoustic model with complete data as before. For example, the data may be owned by different curators, and it is not allowed to share with others. In this paper, we propose a novel paradigm to solve salient problems plaguing the ASR field. In the first stage, multiple acoustic models are trained based upon different subsets of the complete speech data, while in the second phase, two novel algorithms are utilized to generate a high-quality acoustic model based upon those trained on data subsets. We first propose the Genetic Merge Algorithm (GMA), which is a highly specialized algorithm for optimizing acoustic models but suffers from low efficiency. We further propose the SGD-Based Optimizational Merge Algorithm (SOMA), which effectively alleviates the efficiency bottleneck of GMA and maintains superior model accuracy. Extensive experiments on public data show that the proposed methods can significantly outperform the state-of-the-art. Furthermore, we introduce Shapley Value to estimate the contribution score of the trained models, which is useful for evaluating the effectiveness of the data and providing fair incentives to their curators.