Learning Graphical Models
An Overview of Causal Inference using Kernel Embeddings
Kernel embeddings have emerged as a powerful tool for representing probability measures in a variety of statistical inference problems. By mapping probability measures into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), kernel embeddings enable flexible representations of complex relationships between variables. They serve as a mechanism for efficiently transferring the representation of a distribution downstream to other tasks, such as hypothesis testing or causal effect estimation. In the context of causal inference, the main challenges include identifying causal associations and estimating the average treatment effect from observational data, where confounding variables may obscure direct cause-and-effect relationships. Kernel embeddings provide a robust nonparametric framework for addressing these challenges. They allow for the representations of distributions of observational data and their seamless transformation into representations of interventional distributions to estimate relevant causal quantities.
A Generalized Framework for Multiscale State-Space Modeling with Nested Nonlinear Dynamics: An Application to Bayesian Learning under Switching Regimes
Vélez-Cruz, Nayely, Laubichler, Manfred D.
In complex systems, processes operate across multiple time scales, such as rapid fluctuations in environmental conditions, intermediate responses like population dynamics, and slower shifts such as ecosystem succession or climate change. These dynamics are often nested, with fast processes embedded within slower ones. Fine-scale, rapid changes can accumulate over time to influence large-scale trends, while slower processes provide the conditions for fast dynamics to unfold. This interplay between processes at different time scales can lead to transient behaviors, where a system remains in one dynamic state for an extended period before abruptly shifting to another [4]. In ecological systems, these dynamics often manifest as long transients--periods of apparent stability followed by sudden regime shifts. These shifts can occur without any obvious external trigger, driven instead by internal processes or responses to environmental variability [6]. During these phases, a system may exhibit consistent behavior over time before transitioning to a different dynamic regime, which could involve altered oscillatory patterns or a completely new structure. Such transitions are difficult to predict, as they are nonlinear, involve systems operating at multiple interacting scales, and are influenced by stochasticity [5, 2]. Understanding these multiscale and nonlinear interactions is essential for anticipating regime shifts, which are often most consequential at the coarsest time scales, where changes in slow-moving processes like ecosystem succession or long-term climate changes lead to impactful, irreversible transitions [6].
Mapping the Neuro-Symbolic AI Landscape by Architectures: A Handbook on Augmenting Deep Learning Through Symbolic Reasoning
Feldstein, Jonathan, Dilkas, Paulius, Belle, Vaishak, Tsamoura, Efthymia
Integrating symbolic techniques with statistical ones is a long-standing problem in artificial intelligence. The motivation is that the strengths of either area match the weaknesses of the other, and $\unicode{x2013}$ by combining the two $\unicode{x2013}$ the weaknesses of either method can be limited. Neuro-symbolic AI focuses on this integration where the statistical methods are in particular neural networks. In recent years, there has been significant progress in this research field, where neuro-symbolic systems outperformed logical or neural models alone. Yet, neuro-symbolic AI is, comparatively speaking, still in its infancy and has not been widely adopted by machine learning practitioners. In this survey, we present the first mapping of neuro-symbolic techniques into families of frameworks based on their architectures, with several benefits: Firstly, it allows us to link different strengths of frameworks to their respective architectures. Secondly, it allows us to illustrate how engineers can augment their neural networks while treating the symbolic methods as black-boxes. Thirdly, it allows us to map most of the field so that future researchers can identify closely related frameworks.
Efficient Feature Extraction and Classification Architecture for MRI-Based Brain Tumor Detection
Paul, Plabon, Islam, Md. Nazmul, Rafsani, Fazle, Khorasani, Pegah, Soumma, Shovito Barua
Uncontrolled cell division in the brain is what gives rise to brain tumors. If the tumor size increases by more than half, there is little hope for the patient's recovery. This emphasizes the need of rapid and precise brain tumor diagnosis. When it comes to analyzing, diagnosing, and planning therapy for brain tumors, MRI imaging plays a crucial role. A brain tumor's development history is crucial information for doctors to have. When it comes to distinguishing between human soft tissues, MRI scans are superior. In order to get reliable classification results from MRI scans quickly, deep learning is one of the most practical methods. Early human illness diagnosis has been demonstrated to be more accurate when deep learning methods are used. In the case of diagnosing a brain tumor, when even a little misdiagnosis might have serious consequences, accuracy is especially important. Disclosure of brain tumors in medical images is still a difficult task. Brain MRIs are notoriously imprecise in revealing the presence or absence of tumors. Using MRI scans of the brain, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) was trained to identify the presence of a tumor in this research. Results from the CNN model showed an accuracy of 99.17%. The CNN model's characteristics were also retrieved. In order to evaluate the CNN model's capability for processing images, we applied the features via the following machine learning models: KNN, Logistic regression, SVM, Random Forest, Naive Bayes, and Perception. CNN and machine learning models were also evaluated using the standard metrics of Precision, Recall, Specificity, and F1 score. The significance of the doctor's diagnosis enhanced the accuracy of the CNN model's assistance in identifying the existence of tumor and treating the patient.
Predicting Future Actions of Reinforcement Learning Agents
Chung, Stephen, Niekum, Scott, Krueger, David
As reinforcement learning agents become increasingly deployed in real-world scenarios, predicting future agent actions and events during deployment is important for facilitating better human-agent interaction and preventing catastrophic outcomes. This paper experimentally evaluates and compares the effectiveness of future action and event prediction for three types of RL agents: explicitly planning, implicitly planning, and non-planning. We employ two approaches: the inner state approach, which involves predicting based on the inner computations of the agents (e.g., plans or neuron activations), and a simulation-based approach, which involves unrolling the agent in a learned world model. Our results show that the plans of explicitly planning agents are significantly more informative for prediction than the neuron activations of the other types. Furthermore, using internal plans proves more robust to model quality compared to simulation-based approaches when predicting actions, while the results for event prediction are more mixed. These findings highlight the benefits of leveraging inner states and simulations to predict future agent actions and events, thereby improving interaction and safety in real-world deployments.
Bayesian Counterfactual Prediction Models for HIV Care Retention with Incomplete Outcome and Covariate Information
Oganisian, Arman, Hogan, Joseph, Sang, Edwin, DeLong, Allison, Mosong, Ben, Fraser, Hamish, Mwangi, Ann
Like many chronic diseases, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is managed over time at regular clinic visits. At each visit, patient features are assessed, treatments are prescribed, and a subsequent visit is scheduled. There is a need for data-driven methods for both predicting retention and recommending scheduling decisions that optimize retention. Prediction models can be useful for estimating retention rates across a range of scheduling options. However, training such models with electronic health records (EHR) involves several complexities. First, formal causal inference methods are needed to adjust for observed confounding when estimating retention rates under counterfactual scheduling decisions. Second, competing events such as death preclude retention, while censoring events render retention missing. Third, inconsistent monitoring of features such as viral load and CD4 count lead to covariate missingness. This paper presents an all-in-one approach for both predicting HIV retention and optimizing scheduling while accounting for these complexities. We formulate and identify causal retention estimands in terms of potential return-time under a hypothetical scheduling decision. Flexible Bayesian approaches are used to model the observed return-time distribution while accounting for competing and censoring events and form posterior point and uncertainty estimates for these estimands. We address the urgent need for data-driven decision support in HIV care by applying our method to EHR from the Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH) - a consortium of clinics that treat HIV in Western Kenya.
A Machine Learning-Based Secure Face Verification Scheme and Its Applications to Digital Surveillance
Face verification is a well-known image analysis application and is widely used to recognize individuals in contemporary society. However, most real-world recognition systems ignore the importance of protecting the identity-sensitive facial images that are used for verification. To address this problem, we investigate how to implement a secure face verification system that protects the facial images from being imitated. In our work, we use the DeepID2 convolutional neural network to extract the features of a facial image and an EM algorithm to solve the facial verification problem. To maintain the privacy of facial images, we apply homomorphic encryption schemes to encrypt the facial data and compute the EM algorithm in the ciphertext domain. We develop three face verification systems for surveillance (or entrance) control of a local community based on three levels of privacy concerns. The associated timing performances are presented to demonstrate their feasibility for practical implementation.
SimSiam Naming Game: A Unified Approach for Representation Learning and Emergent Communication
Hoang, Nguyen Le, Taniguchi, Tadahiro, Tianwei, Fang, Taniguchi, Akira
Emergent communication, driven by generative models, enables agents to develop a shared language for describing their individual views of the same objects through interactions. Meanwhile, self-supervised learning (SSL), particularly SimSiam, uses discriminative representation learning to make representations of augmented views of the same data point closer in the representation space. Building on the prior work of VI-SimSiam, which incorporates a generative and Bayesian perspective into the SimSiam framework via variational inference (VI) interpretation, we propose SimSiam+VAE, a unified approach for both representation learning and emergent communication. SimSiam+VAE integrates a variational autoencoder (VAE) into the predictor of the SimSiam network to enhance representation learning and capture uncertainty. Experimental results show that SimSiam+VAE outperforms both SimSiam and VI-SimSiam. We further extend this model into a communication framework called the SimSiam Naming Game (SSNG), which applies the generative and Bayesian approach based on VI to develop internal representations and emergent language, while utilizing the discriminative process of SimSiam to facilitate mutual understanding between agents. In experiments with established models, despite the dynamic alternation of agent roles during interactions, SSNG demonstrates comparable performance to the referential game and slightly outperforms the Metropolis-Hastings naming game.
A Bayesian Approach to Harnessing the Power of LLMs in Authorship Attribution
Hu, Zhengmian, Zheng, Tong, Huang, Heng
Authorship attribution aims to identify the origin or author of a document. Traditional approaches have heavily relied on manual features and fail to capture long-range correlations, limiting their effectiveness. Recent advancements leverage text embeddings from pre-trained language models, which require significant fine-tuning on labeled data, posing challenges in data dependency and limited interpretability. Large Language Models (LLMs), with their deep reasoning capabilities and ability to maintain long-range textual associations, offer a promising alternative. This study explores the potential of pre-trained LLMs in one-shot authorship attribution, specifically utilizing Bayesian approaches and probability outputs of LLMs. Our methodology calculates the probability that a text entails previous writings of an author, reflecting a more nuanced understanding of authorship. By utilizing only pre-trained models such as Llama-3-70B, our results on the IMDb and blog datasets show an impressive 85\% accuracy in one-shot authorship classification across ten authors. Our findings set new baselines for one-shot authorship analysis using LLMs and expand the application scope of these models in forensic linguistics. This work also includes extensive ablation studies to validate our approach.
Unlocking Point Processes through Point Set Diffusion
Lüdke, David, Raventós, Enric Rabasseda, Kollovieh, Marcel, Günnemann, Stephan
Point processes model the distribution of random point sets in mathematical spaces, such as spatial and temporal domains, with applications in fields like seismology, neuroscience, and economics. Existing statistical and machine learning models for point processes are predominantly constrained by their reliance on the characteristic intensity function, introducing an inherent trade-off between efficiency and flexibility. In this paper, we introduce Point Set Diffusion, a diffusion-based latent variable model that can represent arbitrary point processes on general metric spaces without relying on the intensity function. By directly learning to stochastically interpolate between noise and data point sets, our approach enables efficient, parallel sampling and flexible generation for complex conditional tasks defined on the metric space. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that Point Set Diffusion achieves state-of-the-art performance in unconditional and conditional generation of spatial and spatiotemporal point processes while providing up to orders of magnitude faster sampling than autoregressive baselines.