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 Learning Graphical Models


Beyond Confusion: A Fine-grained Dialectical Examination of Human Activity Recognition Benchmark Datasets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The research of machine learning (ML) algorithms for human activity recognition (HAR) has made significant progress with publicly available datasets. However, most research prioritizes statistical metrics over examining negative sample details. While recent models like transformers have been applied to HAR datasets with limited success from the benchmark metrics, their counterparts have effectively solved problems on similar levels with near 100% accuracy. This raises questions about the limitations of current approaches. This paper aims to address these open questions by conducting a fine-grained inspection of six popular HAR benchmark datasets. We identified for some parts of the data, none of the six chosen state-of-the-art ML methods can correctly classify, denoted as the intersect of false classifications (IFC). Analysis of the IFC reveals several underlying problems, including ambiguous annotations, irregularities during recording execution, and misaligned transition periods. We contribute to the field by quantifying and characterizing annotated data ambiguities, providing a trinary categorization mask for dataset patching, and stressing potential improvements for future data collections.


Early Detection of At-Risk Students Using Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This research presents preliminary work to address the challenge of identifying at-risk students using supervised machine learning and three unique data categories: engagement, demographics, and performance data collected from Fall 2023 using Canvas and the California State University, Fullerton dashboard. We aim to tackle the persistent challenges of higher education retention and student dropout rates by screening for at-risk students and building a high-risk identification system. By focusing on previously overlooked behavioral factors alongside traditional metrics, this work aims to address educational gaps, enhance student outcomes, and significantly boost student success across disciplines at the University. Pre-processing steps take place to establish a target variable, anonymize student information, manage missing data, and identify the most significant features. Given the mixed data types in the datasets and the binary classification nature of this study, this work considers several machine learning models, including Support Vector Machines (SVM), Naive Bayes, K-nearest neighbors (KNN), Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, and Random Forest. These models predict at-risk students and identify critical periods of the semester when student performance is most vulnerable. We will use validation techniques such as train test split and k-fold cross-validation to ensure the reliability of the models. Our analysis indicates that all algorithms generate an acceptable outcome for at-risk student predictions, while Naive Bayes performs best overall.


Reinforcement Learning Within the Classical Robotics Stack: A Case Study in Robot Soccer

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Robot decision-making in partially observable, real-time, dynamic, and multi-agent environments remains a difficult and unsolved challenge. Model-free reinforcement learning (RL) is a promising approach to learning decision-making in such domains, however, end-to-end RL in complex environments is often intractable. To address this challenge in the RoboCup Standard Platform League (SPL) domain, we developed a novel architecture integrating RL within a classical robotics stack, while employing a multi-fidelity sim2real approach and decomposing behavior into learned sub-behaviors with heuristic selection. Our architecture led to victory in the 2024 RoboCup SPL Challenge Shield Division. In this work, we fully describe our system's architecture and empirically analyze key design decisions that contributed to its success. Our approach demonstrates how RL-based behaviors can be integrated into complete robot behavior architectures.


Langevin Monte Carlo Beyond Lipschitz Gradient Continuity

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present a significant advancement in the field of Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) methods by introducing the Inexact Proximal Langevin Algorithm (IPLA). This novel algorithm broadens the scope of problems that LMC can effectively address while maintaining controlled computational costs. IPLA extends LMC's applicability to potentials that are convex, strongly convex in the tails, and exhibit polynomial growth, beyond the conventional $L$-smoothness assumption. Moreover, we extend LMC's applicability to super-quadratic potentials and offer improved convergence rates over existing algorithms. Additionally, we provide bounds on all moments of the Markov chain generated by IPLA, enhancing its analytical robustness.


Speeding up approximate MAP by applying domain knowledge about relevant variables

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The MAP problem in Bayesian networks is notoriously intractable, even when approximated. In an earlier paper we introduced the Most Frugal Explanation heuristic approach to solving MAP, by partitioning the set of intermediate variables (neither observed nor part of the MAP variables) into a set of relevant variables, which are marginalized out, and irrelevant variables, which will be assigned a sampled value from their domain. In this study we explore whether knowledge about which variables are relevant for a particular query (i.e., domain knowledge) speeds up computation sufficiently to beat both exact MAP as well as approximate MAP while giving reasonably accurate results. Our results are inconclusive, but also show that this probably depends on the specifics of the MAP query, most prominently the number of MAP variables.


Temporal Causal Discovery in Dynamic Bayesian Networks Using Federated Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditionally, learning the structure of a Dynamic Bayesian Network has been centralized, with all data pooled in one location. However, in real-world scenarios, data are often dispersed among multiple parties (e.g., companies, devices) that aim to collaboratively learn a Dynamic Bayesian Network while preserving their data privacy and security. In this study, we introduce a federated learning approach for estimating the structure of a Dynamic Bayesian Network from data distributed horizontally across different parties. We propose a distributed structure learning method that leverages continuous optimization so that only model parameters are exchanged during optimization. Experimental results on synthetic and real datasets reveal that our method outperforms other state-of-the-art techniques, particularly when there are many clients with limited individual sample sizes.


Stochastic Learning of Non-Conjugate Variational Posterior for Image Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Large scale Bayesian nonparametrics (BNP) learner such as stochastic variational inference (SVI) can handle datasets with large class number and large training size at fractional cost. Like its predecessor, SVI rely on the assumption of conjugate variational posterior to approximate the true posterior. A more challenging problem is to consider large scale learning on non-conjugate posterior. Recent works in this direction are mostly associated with using Monte Carlo methods for approximating the learner. However, these works are usually demonstrated on non-BNP related task and less complex models such as logistic regression, due to higher computational complexity. In order to overcome the issue faced by SVI, we develop a novel approach based on the recently proposed variational maximization-maximization (VMM) learner to allow large scale learning on non-conjugate posterior. Unlike SVI, our VMM learner does not require closed-form expression for the variational posterior expectatations. Our only requirement is that the variational posterior is differentiable. In order to ensure convergence in stochastic settings, SVI rely on decaying step-sizes to slow its learning. Inspired by SVI and Adam, we propose the novel use of decaying step-sizes on both gradient and ascent direction in our VMM to significantly improve its learning. We show that our proposed methods is compatible with ResNet features when applied to large class number datasets such as MIT67 and SUN397. Finally, we compare our proposed learner with several recent works such as deep clustering algorithms and showed we were able to produce on par or outperform the state-of-the-art methods in terms of clustering measures.


Bayesian optimized deep ensemble for uncertainty quantification of deep neural networks: a system safety case study on sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Accurate predictions and uncertainty quantification (UQ) are essential for decision-making in risk-sensitive fields such as system safety modeling. Deep ensembles (DEs) are efficient and scalable methods for UQ in Deep Neural Networks (DNNs); however, their performance is limited when constructed by simply retraining the same DNN multiple times with randomly sampled initializations. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel method that combines Bayesian optimization (BO) with DE, referred to as BODE, to enhance both predictive accuracy and UQ. We apply BODE to a case study involving a Densely connected Convolutional Neural Network (DCNN) trained on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data to predict eddy viscosity in sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling. Compared to a manually tuned baseline ensemble, BODE estimates total uncertainty approximately four times lower in a noise-free environment, primarily due to the baseline's overestimation of aleatoric uncertainty. Specifically, BODE estimates aleatoric uncertainty close to zero, while aleatoric uncertainty dominates the total uncertainty in the baseline ensemble. We also observe a reduction of more than 30% in epistemic uncertainty. When Gaussian noise with standard deviations of 5% and 10% is introduced into the data, BODE accurately fits the data and estimates uncertainty that aligns with the data noise. These results demonstrate that BODE effectively reduces uncertainty and enhances predictions in data-driven models, making it a flexible approach for various applications requiring accurate predictions and robust UQ.


FLIP: Flow-Centric Generative Planning for General-Purpose Manipulation Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We aim to develop a model-based planning framework for world models that can be scaled with increasing model and data budgets for general-purpose manipulation tasks with only language and vision inputs. To this end, we present FLow-centric generative Planning (FLIP), a model-based planning algorithm on visual space that features three key modules: 1. a multi-modal flow generation model as the general-purpose action proposal module; 2. a flow-conditioned video generation model as the dynamics module; and 3. a vision-language representation learning model as the value module. Given an initial image and language instruction as the goal, FLIP can progressively search for long-horizon flow and video plans that maximize the discounted return to accomplish the task. FLIP is able to synthesize long-horizon plans across objects, robots, and tasks with image flows as the general action representation, and the dense flow information also provides rich guidance for long-horizon video generation. In addition, the synthesized flow and video plans can guide the training of low-level control policies for robot execution. Experiments on diverse benchmarks demonstrate that FLIP can improve both the success rates and quality of long-horizon video plan synthesis and has the interactive world model property, opening up wider applications for future works.


Learn How to Query from Unlabeled Data Streams in Federated Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated learning (FL) enables collaborative learning among decentralized clients while safeguarding the privacy of their local data. Existing studies on FL typically assume offline labeled data available at each client when the training starts. Nevertheless, the training data in practice often arrive at clients in a streaming fashion without ground-truth labels. Given the expensive annotation cost, it is critical to identify a subset of informative samples for labeling on clients. However, selecting samples locally while accommodating the global training objective presents a challenge unique to FL. In this work, we tackle this conundrum by framing the data querying process in FL as a collaborative decentralized decision-making problem and proposing an effective solution named LeaDQ, which leverages multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms. In particular, under the implicit guidance from global information, LeaDQ effectively learns the local policies for distributed clients and steers them towards selecting samples that can enhance the global model's accuracy. Extensive simulations on image and text tasks show that LeaDQ advances the model performance in various FL scenarios, outperforming the benchmarking algorithms.