We develop the framework of Indirect Query Bayesian Optimization (IQBO), a new class of Bayesian optimization problems where the integrated feedback is given via a conditional expectation of the unknown function $f$ to be optimized. The underlying conditional distribution can be unknown and learned from data. The goal is to find the global optimum of $f$ by adaptively querying and observing in the space transformed by the conditional distribution. This is motivated by real-world applications where one cannot access direct feedback due to privacy, hardware or computational constraints. We propose the Conditional Max-Value Entropy Search (CMES) acquisition function to address this novel setting, and propose a hierarchical search algorithm to address the multi-resolution setting and improve the computational efficiency. We show regret bounds for our proposed methods and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approaches on simulated optimization tasks.

This paper introduces a novel and scalable framework for uncertainty estimation and separation with applications in data driven modeling in science and engineering tasks where reliable uncertainty quantification is critical. Leveraging an ensemble of quantile regression (E-QR) models, our approach enhances aleatoric uncertainty estimation while preserving the quality of epistemic uncertainty, surpassing competing methods, such as Deep Ensembles (DE) and Monte Carlo (MC) dropout. To address challenges in separating uncertainty types, we propose an algorithm that iteratively improves separation through progressive sampling in regions of high uncertainty. Our framework is scalable to large datasets and demonstrates superior performance on synthetic benchmarks, offering a robust tool for uncertainty quantification in data-driven applications.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods play an important role in reducing errors in weather forecasting. Conventional approaches in UQ for weather forecasting rely on generating an ensemble of forecasts from physics-based simulations to estimate the uncertainty. However, it is computationally expensive to generate many forecasts to predict real-time extreme weather events. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is an uncertainty-aware deep learning approach designed to provide confidence about its predictions using only one forecast. It treats learning as an evidence acquisition process where more evidence is interpreted as increased predictive confidence. We apply EDL to storm forecasting using real-world weather datasets and compare its performance with traditional methods. Our findings indicate that EDL not only reduces computational overhead but also enhances predictive uncertainty. This method opens up novel opportunities in research areas such as climate risk assessment, where quantifying the uncertainty about future climate is crucial.

Modern robots vary significantly in shape, size, and sensor configurations used to perceive and interact with their environments. However, most navigation policies are embodiment-specific; a policy learned using one robot's configuration does not typically gracefully generalize to another. Even small changes in the body size or camera viewpoint may cause failures. With the recent surge in custom hardware developments, it is necessary to learn a single policy that can be transferred to other embodiments, eliminating the need to (re)train for each specific robot. In this paper, we introduce RING (Robotic Indoor Navigation Generalist), an embodiment-agnostic policy, trained solely in simulation with diverse randomly initialized embodiments at scale. Specifically, we augment the AI2-THOR simulator with the ability to instantiate robot embodiments with controllable configurations, varying across body size, rotation pivot point, and camera configurations. In the visual object-goal navigation task, RING achieves robust performance on real unseen robot platforms (Stretch RE-1, LoCoBot, Unitree's Go1), achieving an average of 72.1% and 78.9% success rate across 5 embodiments in simulation and 4 robot platforms in the real world. (project website: https://one-ring-policy.allen.ai/)

The reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) are attracting increasing attention. In this work, we focus on causal reasoning and address the task of establishing causal relationships based on correlation information, a highly challenging problem on which several LLMs have shown poor performance. We introduce a prompting strategy for this problem that breaks the original task into fixed subquestions, with each subquestion corresponding to one step of a formal causal discovery algorithm, the PC algorithm. The proposed prompting strategy, PC-SubQ, guides the LLM to follow these algorithmic steps, by sequentially prompting it with one subquestion at a time, augmenting the next subquestion's prompt with the answer to the previous one(s). We evaluate our approach on an existing causal benchmark, Corr2Cause: our experiments indicate a performance improvement across five LLMs when comparing PC-SubQ to baseline prompting strategies. Results are robust to causal query perturbations, when modifying the variable names or paraphrasing the expressions.

Constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs), in which the agent optimizes expected payoffs while keeping the expected cost below a given threshold, are the leading framework for safe sequential decision making under stochastic uncertainty. Among algorithms for planning and learning in CMDPs, methods based on Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) have particular importance due to their efficiency and extendibility to more complex frameworks (such as partially observable settings and games). However, current MCTS-based methods for CMDPs either struggle with finding safe (i.e., constraint-satisfying) policies, or are too conservative and do not find valuable policies. We introduce Threshold UCT (T-UCT), an online MCTS-based algorithm for CMDP planning. Unlike previous MCTS-based CMDP planners, T-UCT explicitly estimates Pareto curves of cost-utility trade-offs throughout the search tree, using these together with a novel action selection and threshold update rules to seek safe and valuable policies. Our experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods from the literature.

Causal inference is an imperative foundation for decision-making across domains, such as smart health, AI for drug discovery and AIOps. Traditional statistical causal discovery methods, while well-established, predominantly rely on observational data and often overlook the semantic cues inherent in cause-and-effect relationships. The advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) has ushered in an affordable way of leveraging the semantic cues for knowledge-driven causal discovery, but the development of LLMs for causal discovery lags behind other areas, particularly in the exploration of multi-modality data. To bridge the gap, we introduce MATMCD, a multi-agent system powered by tool-augmented LLMs. MATMCD has two key agents: a Data Augmentation agent that retrieves and processes modality-augmented data, and a Causal Constraint agent that integrates multi-modal data for knowledge-driven inference. Delicate design of the inner-workings ensures successful cooperation of the agents. Our empirical study across seven datasets suggests the significant potential of multi-modality enhanced causal discovery.

Since the debut of DPO, it has been shown that aligning a target LLM with human preferences via the KL-constrained RLHF loss is mathematically equivalent to a special kind of reward modeling task. Concretely, the task requires: 1) using the target LLM to parameterize the reward model, and 2) tuning the reward model so that it has a 1:1 linear relationship with the true reward. However, we identify a significant issue: the DPO loss might have multiple minimizers, of which only one satisfies the required linearity condition. The problem arises from a well-known issue of the underlying Bradley-Terry preference model: it does not always have a unique maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). Consequently,the minimizer of the RLHF loss might be unattainable because it is merely one among many minimizers of the DPO loss. As a better alternative, we propose an energy-based model (EBM) that always has a unique MLE, inherently satisfying the linearity requirement. To approximate the MLE in practice, we propose a contrastive loss named Energy Preference Alignment (EPA), wherein each positive sample is contrasted against one or more strong negatives as well as many free weak negatives. Theoretical properties of our EBM enable the approximation error of EPA to almost surely vanish when a sufficient number of negatives are used. Empirically, we demonstrate that EPA consistently delivers better performance on open benchmarks compared to DPO, thereby showing the superiority of our EBM.

Realtime environments change even as agents perform action inference and learning, thus requiring high interaction frequencies to effectively minimize regret. However, recent advances in machine learning involve larger neural networks with longer inference times, raising questions about their applicability in realtime systems where reaction time is crucial. We present an analysis of lower bounds on regret in realtime reinforcement learning (RL) environments to show that minimizing long-term regret is generally impossible within the typical sequential interaction and learning paradigm, but often becomes possible when sufficient asynchronous compute is available. We propose novel algorithms for staggering asynchronous inference processes to ensure that actions are taken at consistent time intervals, and demonstrate that use of models with high action inference times is only constrained by the environment's effective stochasticity over the inference horizon, and not by action frequency. Our analysis shows that the number of inference processes needed scales linearly with increasing inference times while enabling use of models that are multiple orders of magnitude larger than existing approaches when learning from a realtime simulation of Game Boy games such as Pok\'emon and Tetris.

Over the past few years, Reinforcement Learning has shown to have the capacity to train Deep Neural Networks to perform complex tasks. This paper investigates the use of a Deep Reinforcement Learning algorithm, Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient, to learn a policy to fly a quadcopter through a First Person View(FPV) drone racing gate. BattleDrones is an autonomous drone racing competition held by Virginia Tech. Teams must design a controller to navigate a quadcopter through a course consisting of multiple gates as part of the competition. The quadcopter is outfitted with a camera that is used to identify an AprilTag [1], a fiducial marker, on the gates.