Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution and detailed analyses of how models learn from data. In recent years, conformal prediction has emerged as a rapidly growing alternative framework that is particularly well suited to modern applications involving high-dimensional data and complex machine learning models. Its appeal stems from being both distribution-free -- relying mainly on symmetry assumptions such as exchangeability -- and model-agnostic, treating the learning algorithm as a black box. Even under such limited assumptions, conformal prediction provides exact finite-sample guarantees, though these are typically of a marginal nature that requires careful interpretation. This paper explains the core ideas of conformal prediction and reviews selected methods. Rather than offering an exhaustive survey, it aims to provide a clear conceptual entry point and a pedagogical overview of the field.

We derive posterior contraction rates (PCRs) and finite-sample Bernstein von Mises (BvM) results for non-parametric Bayesian models by extending the diffusion-based framework of Mou et al. (2024) to the infinite-dimensional setting. The posterior is represented as the invariant measure of a Langevin stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) on a separable Hilbert space, which allows us to control posterior moments and obtain non-asymptotic concentration rates in Hilbert norms under various likelihood curvature and regularity conditions. We also establish a quantitative Laplace approximation for the posterior. The theory is illustrated in a nonparametric linear Gaussian inverse problem.

Active learning reduces labeling costs by selecting samples that maximize information gain. A dominant framework, Query-by-Committee (QBC), typically relies on perturbation-based diversity by inducing model disagreement through random feature subsetting or data blinding. While this approximates one notion of epistemic uncertainty, it sacrifices direct characterization of the plausible hypothesis space. We propose the complementary approach: Rashomon Ensembled Active Learning (REAL) which constructs a committee by exhaustively enumerating the Rashomon Set of all near-optimal models. To address functional redundancy within this set, we adopt a PAC-Bayesian framework using a Gibbs posterior to weight committee members by their empirical risk. Leveraging recent algorithmic advances, we exactly enumerate this set for the class of sparse decision trees. Across synthetic and established active learning baselines, REAL outperforms randomized ensembles, particularly in moderately noisy environments where it strategically leverages expanded model multiplicity to achieve faster convergence.

Probability theory has become the predominant framework for quantifying uncertainty across scientific and engineering disciplines, with a particular focus on measurement and control systems. However, the widespread reliance on simple Gaussian assumptions--particularly in control theory, manufacturing, and measurement systems--can result in incomplete representations and multistage lossy approximations of complex phenomena, including inaccurate propagation of uncertainty through multi stage processes. This work proposes a comprehensive yet computationally tractable framework for representing and propagating quantitative attributes arising in measurement systems using Probability Density Functions (PDFs). Recognizing the constraints imposed by finite memory in software systems, we advocate for the use of Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), a principled extension of the familiar Gaussian framework, as they are universal approximators of PDFs whose complexity can be tuned to trade off approximation accuracy against memory and computation. From both mathematical and computational perspectives, GMMs enable high performance and, in many cases, closed form solutions of essential operations in control and measurement. The paper presents practical applications within manufacturing and measurement contexts especially circular factory, demonstrating how the GMMs framework supports accurate representation and propagation of measurement uncertainty and offers improved accuracy--compared to the traditional Gaussian framework--while keeping the computations tractable.

Probabilistic circuit (PC) structure learning is hampered by greedy algorithms that make irreversible, locally optimal decisions. We propose SymCircuit, which replaces greedy search with a learned generative policy trained via entropy-regularized reinforcement learning. Instantiating the RL-as-inference framework in the PC domain, we show the optimal policy is a tempered Bayesian posterior, recovering the exact posterior when the regularization temperature is set inversely proportional to the dataset size. The policy is implemented as SymFormer, a grammar-constrained autoregressive Transformer with tree-relative self-attention that guarantees valid circuits at every generation step. We introduce option-level REINFORCE, restricting gradient updates to structural decisions rather than all tokens, yielding an SNR (signal to noise ratio) improvement and >10 times sample efficiency gain on the NLTCS dataset. A three-layer uncertainty decomposition (structural via model averaging, parametric via the delta method, leaf via conjugate Dirichlet-Categorical propagation) is grounded in the multilinear polynomial structure of PC outputs. On NLTCS, SymCircuit closes 93% of the gap to LearnSPN; preliminary results on Plants (69 variables) suggest scalability.

Behavior cloning is a fundamental paradigm in machine learning, enabling policy learning from expert demonstrations across robotics, autonomous driving, and generative models. Autoregressive models like transformer have proven remarkably effective, from large language models (LLMs) to vision-language-action systems (VLAs). However, applying autoregressive models to continuous control requires discretizing actions through quantization, a practice widely adopted yet poorly understood theoretically. This paper provides theoretical foundations for this practice. We analyze how quantization error propagates along the horizon and interacts with statistical sample complexity. We show that behavior cloning with quantized actions and log-loss achieves optimal sample complexity, matching existing lower bounds, and incurs only polynomial horizon dependence on quantization error, provided the dynamics are stable and the policy satisfies a probabilistic smoothness condition. We further characterize when different quantization schemes satisfy or violate these requirements, and propose a model-based augmentation that provably improves the error bound without requiring policy smoothness. Finally, we establish fundamental limits that jointly capture the effects of quantization error and statistical complexity.

Recommendation systems (RSs) are increasingly used to guide job seekers on online platforms, yet the algorithms currently deployed are typically optimized for predictive objectives such as clicks, applications, or hires, rather than job seekers' welfare. We develop a job-search model with an application stage in which the value of a vacancy depends on two dimensions: the utility it delivers to the worker and the probability that an application succeeds. The model implies that welfare-optimal RSs rank vacancies by an expected-surplus index combining both, and shows why rankings based solely on utility, hiring probabilities, or observed application behavior are generically suboptimal, an instance of the inversion problem between behavior and welfare. We test these predictions and quantify their practical importance through two randomized field experiments conducted with the French public employment service. The first experiment, comparing existing algorithms and their combinations, provides behavioral evidence that both dimensions shape application decisions. Guided by the model and these results, the second experiment extends the comparison to an RS designed to approximate the welfare-optimal ranking. The experiments generate exogenous variation in the vacancies shown to job seekers, allowing us to estimate the model, validate its behavioral predictions, and construct a welfare metric. Algorithms informed by the model-implied optimal ranking substantially outperform existing approaches and perform close to the welfare-optimal benchmark. Our results show that embedding predictive tools within a simple job-search framework and combining it with experimental evidence yields recommendation rules with substantial welfare gains in practice.

Learning causal relations from observational data is a fundamental problem with wide-ranging applications across many fields. Constraint-based methods infer the underlying causal structure by performing conditional independence tests. However, existing algorithms such as the prominent PC algorithm need to perform a large number of independence tests, which in the worst case is exponential in the maximum degree of the causal graph. Despite extensive research, it remains unclear if there exist algorithms with better complexity without additional assumptions. Here, we establish an algorithm that achieves a better complexity of $p^{\mathcal{O}(s)}$ tests, where $p$ is the number of nodes in the graph and $s$ denotes the maximum undirected clique size of the underlying essential graph. Complementing this result, we prove that any constraint-based algorithm must perform at least $2^{Ω(s)}$ conditional independence tests, establishing that our proposed algorithm achieves exponent-optimality up to a logarithmic factor in terms of the number of conditional independence tests needed. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings through simulations, on semi-synthetic gene-expression data, and real-world data, demonstrating the efficiency of our algorithm compared to existing methods in terms of number of conditional independence tests needed.

Data assimilation algorithms estimate the state of a dynamical system from partial observations, where the successful performance of these algorithms hinges on costly parameter tuning and on employing an accurate model for the dynamics. This paper introduces a framework for jointly learning the state, dynamics, and parameters of filtering algorithms in data assimilation through a process we refer to as auto-differentiable filtering. The framework leverages a theoretically motivated loss function that enables learning from partial, noisy observations via gradient-based optimization using auto-differentiation. We further demonstrate how several well-known data assimilation methods can be learned or tuned within this framework. To underscore the versatility of auto-differentiable filtering, we perform experiments on dynamical systems spanning multiple scientific domains, such as the Clohessy-Wiltshire equations from aerospace engineering, the Lorenz-96 system from atmospheric science, and the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations from systems biology. Finally, we provide guidelines for practitioners to customize our framework according to their observation model, accuracy requirements, and computational budget.

One of the most common machine learning setups is logistic regression. In many classification models, including neural networks, the final prediction is obtained by applying a logistic link function to a linear score. In binary logistic regression, the feedback can be either soft labels, corresponding to the true conditional probability of the data (as in distillation), or sampled hard labels (taking values $\pm 1$). We point out a fundamental problem that arises even in a particularly favorable setting, where the goal is to learn a noise-free soft target of the form $σ(\mathbf{x}^{\top}\mathbf{w}^{\star})$. In the over-constrained case (i.e. the number of samples $n$ exceeds the input dimension $d$) with examples $(\mathbf{x}_i,σ(\mathbf{x}_i^{\top}\mathbf{w}^{\star}))$, it is sufficient to recover $\mathbf{w}^{\star}$ and hence achieve the Bayes risk. However, we prove that when the examples are labeled by hard labels $y_i$ sampled from the same conditional distribution $σ(\mathbf{x}_i^{\top}\mathbf{w}^{\star})$ and $\mathbf{w}^{\star}$ is $s$-sparse, then rotation-invariant algorithms are provably suboptimal: they incur an excess risk $Ω\!\left(\frac{d-1}{n}\right)$, while there are simple non-rotation invariant algorithms with excess risk $O(\frac{s\log d}{n})$. The simplest rotation invariant algorithm is gradient descent on the logistic loss (with early stopping). A simple non-rotation-invariant algorithm for sparse targets that achieves the above upper bounds uses gradient descent on the weights $u_i,v_i$, where now the linear weight $w_i$ is reparameterized as $u_iv_i$.