Simulation-based calibration checking (SBC) refers to the validation of an inference algorithm and model implementation through repeated inference on data simulated from a generative model. In the original and commonly used approach, the generative model uses parameters drawn from the prior, and thus the approach is testing whether the inference works for simulated data generated with parameter values plausible under that prior. This approach is natural and desirable when we want to test whether the inference works for a wide range of datasets we might observe. However, after observing data, we are interested in answering whether the inference works conditional on that particular data. In this paper, we propose posterior SBC and demonstrate how it can be used to validate the inference conditionally on observed data. We illustrate the utility of posterior SBC in three case studies: (1) A simple multilevel model; (2) a model that is governed by differential equations; and (3) a joint integrative neuroscience model which is approximated via amortized Bayesian inference with neural networks.

In this paper, a Convolution-Based Converter (CBC) is proposed to develop a methodology for removing the strong or fixed priors in estimating the probability distribution of targets based on observations in the stochastic process. Traditional approaches, e.g., Markov-based and Gaussian process-based methods, typically leverage observations to estimate targets based on strong or fixed priors (such as Markov properties or Gaussian prior). However, the effectiveness of these methods depends on how well their prior assumptions align with the characteristics of the problem. When the assumed priors are not satisfied, these approaches may perform poorly or even become unusable. To overcome the above limitation, we introduce the Convolution-Based converter (CBC), which implicitly estimates the conditional probability distribution of targets without strong or fixed priors, and directly outputs the expected trajectory of the stochastic process that satisfies the constraints from observations. This approach reduces the dependence on priors, enhancing flexibility and adaptability in modeling stochastic processes when addressing different problems. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms existing baselines across multiple metrics.

Online map matching is a fundamental problem in location-based services, aiming to incrementally match trajectory data step-by-step onto a road network. However, existing methods fail to meet the needs for efficiency, robustness, and accuracy required by large-scale online applications, making this task still a challenging problem. This paper introduces a novel framework that achieves high accuracy and efficient matching while ensuring robustness in handling diverse scenarios. To improve efficiency, we begin by modeling the online map matching problem as an Online Markov Decision Process (OMDP) based on its inherent characteristics. This approach helps efficiently merge historical and real-time data, reducing unnecessary calculations. Next, to enhance the model's robustness, we design a reinforcement learning method, enabling robust handling of real-time data from dynamically changing environments. In particular, we propose a novel model learning process and a comprehensive reward function, allowing the model to make reasonable current matches from a future-oriented perspective, and to continuously update and optimize during the decision-making process based on feedback. Lastly, to address the heterogeneity between trajectories and roads, we design distinct graph structures, facilitating efficient representation learning through graph and recurrent neural networks. To further align trajectory and road data, we introduce contrastive learning to decrease their distance in the latent space, thereby promoting effective integration of the two. Extensive evaluations on three real-world datasets confirm that our method significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art solutions in terms of accuracy, efficiency and robustness.

Student performance prediction is one of the most important subjects in educational data mining. As a modern technology, machine learning offers powerful capabilities in feature extraction and data modeling, providing essential support for diverse application scenarios, as evidenced by recent studies confirming its effectiveness in educational data mining. However, despite extensive prediction experiments, machine learning methods have not been effectively integrated into practical teaching strategies, hindering their application in modern education. In addition, massive features as input variables for machine learning algorithms often leads to information redundancy, which can negatively impact prediction accuracy. Therefore, how to effectively use machine learning methods to predict student performance and integrate the prediction results with actual teaching scenarios is a worthy research subject. To this end, this study integrates the results of machine learning-based student performance prediction with tiered instruction, aiming to enhance student outcomes in target course, which is significant for the application of educational data mining in contemporary teaching scenarios. Specifically, we collect original educational data and perform feature selection to reduce information redundancy. Then, the performance of five representative machine learning methods is analyzed and discussed with Random Forest showing the best performance. Furthermore, based on the results of the classification of students, tiered instruction is applied accordingly, and different teaching objectives and contents are set for all levels of students. The comparison of teaching outcomes between the control and experimental classes, along with the analysis of questionnaire results, demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

We introduce a Bayesian framework for measuring spatio-temporal couplings (STCs) in ultra-intense lasers that reconceptualizes what constitutes a 'single-shot' measurement. Moving beyond traditional distinctions between single- and multi-shot devices, our approach provides rigorous criteria for determining when measurements can truly resolve individual laser shots rather than statistical averages. This framework shows that single-shot capability is not an intrinsic device property but emerges from the relationship between measurement precision and inherent parameter variability. Implementing this approach with a new measurement device at the ATLAS-3000 petawatt laser, we provide the first quantitative uncertainty bounds on pulse front tilt and curvature. Notably, we observe that our Bayesian method reduces uncertainty by up to 60% compared to traditional approaches. Through this analysis, we reveal how the interplay between measurement precision and intrinsic system variability defines achievable resolution -- insights that have direct implications for applications where precise control of laser-matter interaction is critical.

In this paper, we investigate the label shift quantification problem. We propose robust estimators of the label distribution which turn out to coincide with the Maximum Likelihood Estimator. We analyze the theoretical aspects and derive deviation bounds for the proposed method, providing optimal guarantees in the well-specified case, along with notable robustness properties against outliers and contamination. Our results provide theoretical validation for empirical observations on the robustness of Maximum Likelihood Label Shift.

With the rapid development of next-generation Internet of Things (NG-IoT) networks, the increasing number of connected devices has led to a surge in power consumption. This rise in energy demand poses significant challenges to resource availability and raises sustainability concerns for large-scale IoT deployments. Efficient energy utilization in communication networks, particularly for power-constrained IoT devices, has thus become a critical area of research. In this paper, we deployed flying LoRa gateways (GWs) mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to collect data from LoRa end devices (EDs) and transmit it to a central server. Our primary objective is to maximize the global system energy efficiency (EE) of wireless LoRa networks by joint optimization of transmission power (TP), spreading factor (SF), bandwidth (W), and ED association. To solve this challenging problem, we model the problem as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), where each flying LoRa GW acts as a learning agent using a cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) approach under centralized training and decentralized execution (CTDE). Simulation results demonstrate that our proposed method, based on the multi-agent proximal policy optimization (MAPPO) algorithm, significantly improves the global system EE and surpasses the conventional MARL schemes.

Denoising diffusion models have driven significant progress in the field of Bayesian inverse problems. Recent approaches use pre-trained diffusion models as priors to solve a wide range of such problems, only leveraging inference-time compute and thereby eliminating the need to retrain task-specific models on the same dataset. To approximate the posterior of a Bayesian inverse problem, a diffusion model samples from a sequence of intermediate posterior distributions, each with an intractable likelihood function. This work proposes a novel mixture approximation of these intermediate distributions. Since direct gradient-based sampling of these mixtures is infeasible due to intractable terms, we propose a practical method based on Gibbs sampling. We validate our approach through extensive experiments on image inverse problems, utilizing both pixel- and latent-space diffusion priors, as well as on source separation with an audio diffusion model. The code is available at https://www.github.com/badr-moufad/mgdm

This study explores the implementation of large Quantum Restricted Boltzmann Machines (QRBMs), a key advancement in Quantum Machine Learning (QML), as generative models on D-Wave's Pegasus quantum hardware to address dataset imbalance in Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS). By leveraging Pegasus's enhanced connectivity and computational capabilities, a QRBM with 120 visible and 120 hidden units was successfully embedded, surpassing the limitations of default embedding tools. The QRBM synthesized over 1.6 million attack samples, achieving a balanced dataset of over 4.2 million records. Comparative evaluations with traditional balancing methods, such as SMOTE and RandomOversampler, revealed that QRBMs produced higher-quality synthetic samples, significantly improving detection rates, precision, recall, and F1 score across diverse classifiers. The study underscores the scalability and efficiency of QRBMs, completing balancing tasks in milliseconds. These findings highlight the transformative potential of QML and QRBMs as next-generation tools in data preprocessing, offering robust solutions for complex computational challenges in modern information systems.

This paper studies a Markov network model for unbalanced data, aiming to solve the problems of classification bias and insufficient minority class recognition ability of traditional machine learning models in environments with uneven class distribution. By constructing joint probability distribution and conditional dependency, the model can achieve global modeling and reasoning optimization of sample categories. The study introduced marginal probability estimation and weighted loss optimization strategies, combined with regularization constraints and structured reasoning methods, effectively improving the generalization ability and robustness of the model. In the experimental stage, a real credit card fraud detection dataset was selected and compared with models such as logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest and XGBoost. The experimental results show that the Markov network performs well in indicators such as weighted accuracy, F1 score, and AUC-ROC, significantly outperforming traditional classification models, demonstrating its strong decision-making ability and applicability in unbalanced data scenarios. Future research can focus on efficient model training, structural optimization, and deep learning integration in large-scale unbalanced data environments and promote its wide application in practical applications such as financial risk control, medical diagnosis, and intelligent monitoring.