Observational studies are a key resource for causal inference but are often affected by systematic biases. Prior work has focused mainly on detecting these biases, via sensitivity analyses and comparisons with randomized controlled trials, or mitigating them through debiasing techniques. However, there remains a lack of methodology for uncovering the underlying mechanisms driving these biases, e.g., whether due to hidden confounding or selection of participants. In this work, we show that the relationship between bias magnitude and the predictive performance of nuisance function estimators (in the observational study) can help distinguish among common sources of causal bias. We validate our methodology through extensive synthetic experiments and a real-world case study, demonstrating its effectiveness in revealing the mechanisms behind observed biases. Our framework offers a new lens for understanding and characterizing bias in observational studies, with practical implications for improving causal inference.

Educators teaching entry-level university engineering modules face the challenge of identifying which topics students find most difficult and how to support diverse student needs effectively. This study demonstrates a rigorous yet interpretable statistical approach -- hierarchical Bayesian modeling -- that leverages detailed student response data to quantify both skill difficulty and individual student abilities. Using a large-scale dataset from an undergraduate Statics course, we identified clear patterns of skill mastery and uncovered distinct student subgroups based on their learning trajectories. Our analysis reveals that certain concepts consistently present challenges, requiring targeted instructional support, while others are readily mastered and may benefit from enrichment activities. Importantly, the hierarchical Bayesian method provides educators with intuitive, reliable metrics without sacrificing predictive accuracy. This approach allows for data-informed decisions, enabling personalized teaching strategies to improve student engagement and success. By combining robust statistical methods with clear interpretability, this study equips educators with actionable insights to better support diverse learner populations.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has demonstrated tremendous empirical success across numerous challenging domains. However, we lack a strong theoretical understanding of the statistical complexity of RL in environments with large state spaces, where function approximation is required for sample-efficient learning. This thesis addresses this gap by rigorously examining the statistical complexity of RL with function approximation from a learning theoretic perspective. Departing from a long history of prior work, we consider the weakest form of function approximation, called agnostic policy learning, in which the learner seeks to find the best policy in a given class $Π$, with no guarantee that $Π$ contains an optimal policy for the underlying task. We systematically explore agnostic policy learning along three key axes: environment access -- how a learner collects data from the environment; coverage conditions -- intrinsic properties of the underlying MDP measuring the expansiveness of state-occupancy measures for policies in the class $Π$, and representational conditions -- structural assumptions on the class $Π$ itself. Within this comprehensive framework, we (1) design new learning algorithms with theoretical guarantees and (2) characterize fundamental performance bounds of any algorithm. Our results reveal significant statistical separations that highlight the power and limitations of agnostic policy learning.

Simulation-free training frameworks have been at the forefront of the generative modelling revolution in continuous spaces, leading to neural dynamical systems that encompass modern large-scale diffusion and flow matching models. Despite the scalability of training, the generation of high-quality samples and their corresponding likelihood under the model requires expensive numerical simulation -- inhibiting adoption in numerous scientific applications such as equilibrium sampling of molecular systems. In this paper, we revisit classical normalizing flows as one-step generative models with exact likelihoods and propose a novel, scalable training objective that does not require computing the expensive change of variable formula used in conventional maximum likelihood training. We propose Forward-Only Regression Training (FORT), a simple $\ell_2$-regression objective that maps prior samples under our flow to specifically chosen targets. We demonstrate that FORT supports a wide class of targets, such as optimal transport targets and targets from pre-trained continuous-time normalizing flows (CNF). We further demonstrate that by using CNF targets, our one-step flows allow for larger-scale training that exceeds the performance and stability of maximum likelihood training, while unlocking a broader class of architectures that were previously challenging to train. Empirically, we elucidate that our trained flows can perform equilibrium conformation sampling in Cartesian coordinates of alanine dipeptide, alanine tripeptide, and alanine tetrapeptide.

The linear Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework offers a principled foundation for reinforcement learning (RL) with strong theoretical guarantees and sample efficiency. However, its restrictive assumption-that both transition dynamics and reward functions are linear in the same feature space-limits its applicability in real-world domains, where rewards often exhibit nonlinear or discrete structures. Motivated by applications such as healthcare and e-commerce, where data is scarce and reward signals can be binary or count-valued, we propose the Generalized Linear MDP (GLMDP) framework-an extension of the linear MDP framework-that models rewards using generalized linear models (GLMs) while maintaining linear transition dynamics. We establish the Bellman completeness of GLMDPs with respect to a new function class that accommodates nonlinear rewards and develop two offline RL algorithms: Generalized Pessimistic Value Iteration (GPEVI) and a semi-supervised variant (SS-GPEVI) that utilizes both labeled and unlabeled trajectories. Our algorithms achieve theoretical guarantees on policy suboptimality and demonstrate improved sample efficiency in settings where reward labels are expensive or limited.

Score matching is a vital tool for learning the distribution of data with applications across many areas including diffusion processes, energy based modelling, and graphical model estimation. Despite all these applications, little work explores its use when data is incomplete. We address this by adapting score matching (and its major extensions) to work with missing data in a flexible setting where data can be partially missing over any subset of the coordinates. We provide two separate score matching variations for general use, an importance weighting (IW) approach, and a variational approach. We provide finite sample bounds for our IW approach in finite domain settings and show it to have especially strong performance in small sample lower dimensional cases. Complementing this, we show our variational approach to be strongest in more complex high-dimensional settings which we demonstrate on graphical model estimation tasks on both real and simulated data.

Alignment via reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has become the dominant paradigm for controlling the quality of outputs from large language models (LLMs). However, when viewed as `loss + regularization,' the standard RLHF objective lacks theoretical justification and incentivizes degenerate, deterministic solutions, an issue that variants such as Direct Policy Optimization (DPO) also inherit. In this paper, we rethink alignment by framing it as \emph{distribution learning} from pairwise preference feedback by explicitly modeling how information about the target language model bleeds through the preference data. This explicit modeling leads us to propose three principled learning objectives: preference maximum likelihood estimation, preference distillation, and reverse KL minimization. We theoretically show that all three approaches enjoy strong non-asymptotic $O(1/n)$ convergence to the target language model, naturally avoiding degeneracy and reward overfitting. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that our distribution learning framework, especially preference distillation, consistently outperforms or matches the performances of RLHF and DPO across various tasks and models.

In this paper we analyze the sample complexities of learning the optimal state-action value function $Q^*$ and an optimal policy $π^*$ in a discounted Markov decision process (MDP) where the agent has recursive entropic risk-preferences with risk-parameter $β\neq 0$ and where a generative model of the MDP is available. We provide and analyze a simple model based approach which we call model-based risk-sensitive $Q$-value-iteration (MB-RS-QVI) which leads to $(ε,δ)$-PAC-bounds on $\|Q^*-Q^k\|$, and $\|V^*-V^{π_k}\|$ where $Q_k$ is the output of MB-RS-QVI after k iterations and $π_k$ is the greedy policy with respect to $Q_k$. Both PAC-bounds have exponential dependence on the effective horizon $\frac{1}{1-γ}$ and the strength of this dependence grows with the learners risk-sensitivity $|β|$. We also provide two lower bounds which shows that exponential dependence on $|β|\frac{1}{1-γ}$ is unavoidable in both cases. The lower bounds reveal that the PAC-bounds are both tight in $\varepsilon$ and $δ$ and that the PAC-bound on $Q$-learning is tight in the number of actions $A$, and that the PAC-bound on policy-learning is nearly tight in $A$.

Varying coefficient models are popular for estimating nonlinear regression functions in functional data models. Their Bayesian variants have received limited attention in large data applications, primarily due to prohibitively slow posterior computations using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. We introduce Bayesian data sketching for varying coefficient models to obviate computational challenges presented by large sample sizes. To address the challenges of analyzing large data, we compress the functional response vector and predictor matrix by a random linear transformation to achieve dimension reduction and conduct inference on the compressed data. Our approach distinguishes itself from several existing methods for analyzing large functional data in that it requires neither the development of new models or algorithms, nor any specialized computational hardware while delivering fully model-based Bayesian inference. Well-established methods and algorithms for varying coefficient regression models can be applied to the compressed data. We establish posterior contraction rates for estimating the varying coefficients and predicting the outcome at new locations with the randomly compressed data model. We use simulation experiments and analyze remote sensed vegetation data to empirically illustrate the inferential and computational efficiency of our approach.

Knowledge of accurate relative skills in any competitive system is essential, but foundational approaches such as ELO discard extremely relevant performance data by concentrating exclusively on binary outcomes. While margin of victory (MOV) extensions exist, they often lack a definitive method for incorporating this information. We introduce Margin of Victory Differential Analysis (MOVDA), a framework that enhances traditional rating systems by using the deviation between the true MOV and a $\textit{modeled expectation}$. MOVDA learns a domain-specific, non-linear function (a scaled hyperbolic tangent that captures saturation effects and home advantage) to predict expected MOV based on rating differentials. Crucially, the $\textit{difference}$ between the true and expected MOV provides a subtle and weighted signal for rating updates, highlighting informative deviations in all levels of contests. Extensive experiments on professional NBA basketball data (from 2013 to 2023, with 13,619 games) show that MOVDA significantly outperforms standard ELO and Bayesian baselines. MOVDA reduces Brier score prediction error by $1.54\%$ compared to TrueSkill, increases outcome accuracy by $0.58\%$, and most importantly accelerates rating convergence by $13.5\%$, while maintaining the computational efficiency of the original ELO updates. MOVDA offers a theoretically motivated, empirically superior, and computationally lean approach to integrating performance magnitude into skill rating for competitive environments like the NBA.