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 Learning Graphical Models


Avoiding Death through Fear Intrinsic Conditioning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Biological and psychological concepts have inspired reinforcement learning algorithms to create new complex behaviors that expand agents' capacity. These behaviors can be seen in the rise of techniques like goal decomposition, curriculum, and intrinsic rewards, which have paved the way for these complex behaviors. One limitation in evaluating these methods is the requirement for engineered extrinsic for realistic environments. A central challenge in engineering the necessary reward function(s) comes from these environments containing states that carry high negative rewards, but provide no feedback to the agent. Death is one such stimuli that fails to provide direct feedback to the agent. In this work, we introduce an intrinsic reward function inspired by early amygdala development and produce this intrinsic reward through a novel memory-augmented neural network (MANN) architecture. We show how this intrinsic motivation serves to deter exploration of terminal states and results in avoidance behavior similar to fear conditioning observed in animals. Furthermore, we demonstrate how modifying a threshold where the fear response is active produces a range of behaviors that are described under the paradigm of general anxiety disorders (GADs). We demonstrate this behavior in the Miniworld Sidewalk environment, which provides a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) and a sparse reward with a non-descriptive terminal condition, i.e., death. In effect, this study results in a biologically-inspired neural architecture and framework for fear conditioning paradigms; we empirically demonstrate avoidance behavior in a constructed agent that is able to solve environments with non-descriptive terminal conditions.


Causal Policy Learning in Reinforcement Learning: Backdoor-Adjusted Soft Actor-Critic

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hidden confounders that influence both states and actions can bias policy learning in reinforcement learning (RL), leading to suboptimal or non-generalizable behavior. Most RL algorithms ignore this issue, learning policies from observational trajectories based solely on statistical associations rather than causal effects. We propose DoSAC (Do-Calculus Soft Actor-Critic with Backdoor Adjustment), a principled extension of the SAC algorithm that corrects for hidden confounding via causal intervention estimation. DoSAC estimates the interventional policy $π(a | \mathrm{do}(s))$ using the backdoor criterion, without requiring access to true confounders or causal labels. To achieve this, we introduce a learnable Backdoor Reconstructor that infers pseudo-past variables (previous state and action) from the current state to enable backdoor adjustment from observational data. This module is integrated into a soft actor-critic framework to compute both the interventional policy and its entropy. Empirical results on continuous control benchmarks show that DoSAC outperforms baselines under confounded settings, with improved robustness, generalization, and policy reliability.


Mixed-Precision Conjugate Gradient Solvers with RL-Driven Precision Tuning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a novel reinforcement learning (RL) framework for dynamically optimizing numerical precision in the preconditioned conjugate gradient (CG) method. By modeling precision selection as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), we employ Q-learning to adaptively assign precision levels to key operations, striking an optimal balance between computational efficiency and numerical accuracy, while ensuring stability through double-precision scalar computations and residual computing. In practice, the algorithm is trained on a set of data and subsequently performs inference for precision selection on out-of-sample data, without requiring re-analysis or retraining for new datasets. This enables the method to adapt seamlessly to new problem instances without the computational overhead of recalibration. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of RL in enhancing solver's performance, marking the first application of RL to mixed-precision numerical methods. The findings highlight the approach's practical advantages, robustness, and scalability, providing valuable insights into its integration with iterative solvers and paving the way for AI-driven advancements in scientific computing.


Amortized variational transdimensional inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The expressiveness of flow-based models combined with stochastic variational inference (SVI) has, in recent years, expanded the application of optimization-based Bayesian inference to include problems with complex data relationships. However, until now, SVI using flow-based models has been limited to problems of fixed dimension. We introduce CoSMIC, normalizing flows (COntextually-Specified Masking for Identity-mapped Components), an extension to neural autoregressive conditional normalizing flow architectures that enables using a single amortized variational density for inference over a transdimensional target distribution. We propose a combined stochastic variational transdimensional inference (VTI) approach to training CoSMIC flows using techniques from Bayesian optimization and Monte Carlo gradient estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrate the performance of VTI on challenging problems that scale to high-cardinality model spaces.


Savage-Dickey density ratio estimation with normalizing flows for Bayesian model comparison

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A core motivation of science is to evaluate which scientific model best explains observed data. Bayesian model comparison provides a principled statistical approach to comparing scientific models and has found widespread application within cosmology and astrophysics. Calculating the Bayesian evidence is computationally challenging, especially as we continue to explore increasingly more complex models. The Savage-Dickey density ratio (SDDR) provides a method to calculate the Bayes factor (evidence ratio) between two nested models using only posterior samples from the super model. The SDDR requires the calculation of a normalised marginal distribution over the extra parameters of the super model, which has typically been performed using classical density estimators, such as histograms. Classical density estimators, however, can struggle to scale to high-dimensional settings. We introduce a neural SDDR approach using normalizing flows that can scale to settings where the super model contains a large number of extra parameters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this neural SDDR methodology applied to both toy and realistic cosmological examples. For a field-level inference setting, we show that Bayes factors computed for a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) and simulation-based inference (SBI) approach are consistent, providing further validation that SBI extracts as much cosmological information from the field as the BHM approach. The SDDR estimator with normalizing flows is implemented in the open-source harmonic Python package.


Distributional encoding for Gaussian process regression with qualitative inputs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Gaussian Process (GP) regression is a popular and sample-efficient approach for many engineering applications, where observations are expensive to acquire, and is also a central ingredient of Bayesian optimization (BO), a highly prevailing method for the optimization of black-box functions. However, when all or some input variables are categorical, building a predictive and computationally efficient GP remains challenging. Starting from the naive target encoding idea, where the original categorical values are replaced with the mean of the target variable for that category, we propose a generalization based on distributional encoding (DE) which makes use of all samples of the target variable for a category. To handle this type of encoding inside the GP, we build upon recent results on characteristic kernels for probability distributions, based on the maximum mean discrepancy and the Wasserstein distance. We also discuss several extensions for classification, multi-task learning and incorporation or auxiliary information. Our approach is validated empirically, and we demonstrate state-of-the-art predictive performance on a variety of synthetic and real-world datasets. DE is naturally complementary to recent advances in BO over discrete and mixed-spaces.


Solving Inverse Problems via Diffusion-Based Priors: An Approximation-Free Ensemble Sampling Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Diffusion models (DMs) have proven to be effective in modeling high-dimensional distributions, leading to their widespread adoption for representing complex priors in Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs). However, current DM-based posterior sampling methods proposed for solving common BIPs rely on heuristic approximations to the generative process. To exploit the generative capability of DMs and avoid the usage of such approximations, we propose an ensemble-based algorithm that performs posterior sampling without the use of heuristic approximations. Our algorithm is motivated by existing works that combine DM-based methods with the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method. By examining how the prior evolves through the diffusion process encoded by the pre-trained score function, we derive a modified partial differential equation (PDE) governing the evolution of the corresponding posterior distribution. This PDE includes a modified diffusion term and a reweighting term, which can be simulated via stochastic weighted particle methods. Theoretically, we prove that the error between the true posterior distribution can be bounded in terms of the training error of the pre-trained score function and the number of particles in the ensemble. Empirically, we validate our algorithm on several inverse problems in imaging to show that our method gives more accurate reconstructions compared to existing DM-based methods.


Reinforcement Learning for Individual Optimal Policy from Heterogeneous Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to find optimal policies in dynamic environments in order to maximize the expected total rewards by leveraging pre-collected data. Learning from heterogeneous data is one of the fundamental challenges in offline RL. Traditional methods focus on learning an optimal policy for all individuals with pre-collected data from a single episode or homogeneous batch episodes, and thus, may result in a suboptimal policy for a heterogeneous population. In this paper, we propose an individualized offline policy optimization framework for heterogeneous time-stationary Markov decision processes (MDPs). The proposed heterogeneous model with individual latent variables enables us to efficiently estimate the individual Q-functions, and our Penalized Pessimistic Personalized Policy Learning (P4L) algorithm guarantees a fast rate on the average regret under a weak partial coverage assumption on behavior policies. In addition, our simulation studies and a real data application demonstrate the superior numerical performance of the proposed method compared with existing methods.


Regret-Optimal Q-Learning with Low Cost for Single-Agent and Federated Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Motivated by real-world settings where data collection and policy deployment -- whether for a single agent or across multiple agents -- are costly, we study the problem of on-policy single-agent reinforcement learning (RL) and federated RL (FRL) with a focus on minimizing burn-in costs (the sample sizes needed to reach near-optimal regret) and policy switching or communication costs. In parallel finite-horizon episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with $S$ states and $A$ actions, existing methods either require superlinear burn-in costs in $S$ and $A$ or fail to achieve logarithmic switching or communication costs. We propose two novel model-free RL algorithms -- Q-EarlySettled-LowCost and FedQ-EarlySettled-LowCost -- that are the first in the literature to simultaneously achieve: (i) the best near-optimal regret among all known model-free RL or FRL algorithms, (ii) low burn-in cost that scales linearly with $S$ and $A$, and (iii) logarithmic policy switching cost for single-agent RL or communication cost for FRL. Additionally, we establish gap-dependent theoretical guarantees for both regret and switching/communication costs, improving or matching the best-known gap-dependent bounds.


A Statistical Physics of Language Model Reasoning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transformer LMs show emergent reasoning that resists mechanistic understanding. We offer a statistical physics framework for continuous-time chain-of-thought reasoning dynamics. We model sentence-level hidden state trajectories as a stochastic dynamical system on a lower-dimensional manifold. This drift-diffusion system uses latent regime switching to capture diverse reasoning phases, including misaligned states or failures. Empirical trajectories (8 models, 7 benchmarks) show a rank-40 projection (balancing variance capture and feasibility) explains ~50% variance. We find four latent reasoning regimes. An SLDS model is formulated and validated to capture these features. The framework enables low-cost reasoning simulation, offering tools to study and predict critical transitions like misaligned states or other LM failures.