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 Learning Graphical Models


Deceptive Path Planning: A Bayesian Game Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

-- This paper investigates how an autonomous agent can transmit information through its motion in an adversarial setting. We consider scenarios where an agent must reach its goal while deceiving an intelligent observer about its destination. We model this interaction as a dynamic Bayesian game between a mobile Attacker with a privately known goal and a Defender who infers the Attacker's intent to allocate defensive resources effectively. We use Perfect Bayesian Nash Equilibrium (PBNE) as our solution concept and propose a computationally efficient approach to find it. In the resulting equilibrium, the Defender employs a simple Markovian strategy, while the Attacker strategically balances deception and goal efficiency by stochastically mixing shortest and non-shortest paths to manipulate the Defender's beliefs. Numerical experiments demonstrate the advantages of our PBNE-based strategies over existing methods based on one-sided optimization.


LPMLN, Weak Constraints, and P-log

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

LPMLN is a recently introduced formalism that extends answer set programs by adopting the log-linear weight scheme of Markov Logic. This paper investigates the relationships between LPMLN and two other extensions of answer set programs: weak constraints to express a quantitative preference among answer sets, and P-log to incorporate probabilistic uncertainty. We present a translation of LPMLN into programs with weak constraints and a translation of P-log into LPMLN, which complement the existing translations in the opposite directions. The first translation allows us to compute the most probable stable models (i.e., MAP estimates) of LPMLN programs using standard ASP solvers. This result can be extended to other formalisms, such as Markov Logic, ProbLog, and Pearl's Causal Models, that are shown to be translatable into LPMLN. The second translation tells us how probabilistic nonmonotonicity (the ability of the reasoner to change his probabilistic model as a result of new information) of P-log can be represented in LPMLN, which yields a way to compute P-log using standard ASP solvers and MLN solvers.


Bayesian Neural Scaling Law Extrapolation with Prior-Data Fitted Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Scaling has been a major driver of recent advancements in deep learning. Numerous empirical studies have found that scaling laws often follow the power-law and proposed several variants of power-law functions to predict the scaling behavior at larger scales. However, existing methods mostly rely on point estimation and do not quantify uncertainty, which is crucial for real-world applications involving decision-making problems such as determining the expected performance improvements achievable by investing additional computational resources. In this work, we explore a Bayesian framework based on Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFNs) for neural scaling law extrapolation. Specifically, we design a prior distribution that enables the sampling of infinitely many synthetic functions resembling real-world neural scaling laws, allowing our PFN to meta-learn the extrapolation. We validate the effectiveness of our approach on real-world neural scaling laws, comparing it against both the existing point estimation methods and Bayesian approaches. Our method demonstrates superior performance, particularly in data-limited scenarios such as Bayesian active learning, underscoring its potential for reliable, uncertainty-aware extrapolation in practical applications.


Revealing the Challenges of Sim-to-Real Transfer in Model-Based Reinforcement Learning via Latent Space Modeling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning (RL) is playing an increasingly important role in fields such as robotic control and autonomous driving. However, the gap between simulation and the real environment remains a major obstacle to the practical deployment of RL. Agents trained in simulators often struggle to maintain performance when transferred to real-world physical environments. In this paper, we propose a latent space based approach to analyze the impact of simulation on real-world policy improvement in model-based settings. As a natural extension of model-based methods, our approach enables an intuitive observation of the challenges faced by model-based methods in sim-to-real transfer. Experiments conducted in the MuJoCo environment evaluate the performance of our method in both measuring and mitigating the sim-to-real gap. The experiments also highlight the various challenges that remain in overcoming the sim-to-real gap, especially for model-based methods.


Topology-Assisted Spatio-Temporal Pattern Disentangling for Scalable MARL in Large-scale Autonomous Traffic Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSs) have emerged as a promising solution towards ameliorating urban traffic congestion, with Traffic Signal Control (TSC) identified as a critical component. Although Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) algorithms have shown potential in optimizing TSC through real-time decision-making, their scalability and effectiveness often suffer from large-scale and complex environments. Typically, these limitations primarily stem from a fundamental mismatch between the exponential growth of the state space driven by the environmental heterogeneities and the limited modeling capacity of current solutions. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel MARL framework that integrates Dynamic Graph Neural Networks (DGNNs) and Topological Data Analysis (TDA), aiming to enhance the expressiveness of environmental representations and improve agent coordination. Furthermore, inspired by the Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture in Large Language Models (LLMs), a topology-assisted spatial pattern disentangling (TSD)-enhanced MoE is proposed, which leverages topological signatures to decouple graph features for specialized processing, thus improving the model's ability to characterize dynamic and heterogeneous local observations. The TSD module is also integrated into the policy and value networks of the Multi-agent Proximal Policy Optimization (MAPPO) algorithm, further improving decision-making efficiency and robustness. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world traffic scenarios, together with comprehensive theoretical analysis, validate the superior performance of the proposed framework, highlighting the model's scalability and effectiveness in addressing the complexities of large-scale TSC tasks.


Wireless Channel Identification via Conditional Diffusion Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The identification of channel scenarios in wireless systems plays a crucial role in channel modeling, radio fingerprint positioning, and transceiver design. Traditional methods to classify channel scenarios are based on typical statistical characteristics of channels, such as K-factor, path loss, delay spread, etc. However, statistic-based channel identification methods cannot accurately differentiate implicit features induced by dynamic scatterers, thus performing very poorly in identifying similar channel scenarios. In this paper, we propose a novel channel scenario identification method, formulating the identification task as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. Furthermore, the MAP estimation is reformulated by a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), which is then approximated and solved by the conditional generative diffusion model. Specifically, we leverage a transformer network to capture hidden channel features in multiple latent noise spaces within the reverse process of the conditional generative diffusion model. These detailed features, which directly affect likelihood functions in MLE, enable highly accurate scenario identification. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms traditional methods, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs), back-propagation neural networks (BPNNs), and random forest-based classifiers, improving the identification accuracy by more than 10%.


Lower Bound on Howard Policy Iteration for Deterministic Markov Decision Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deterministic Markov Decision Processes (DMDPs) are a mathematical framework for decision-making where the outcomes and future possible actions are deterministically determined by the current action taken. DMDPs can be viewed as a finite directed weighted graph, where in each step, the controller chooses an outgoing edge. An objective is a measurable function on runs (or infinite trajectories) of the DMDP, and the value for an objective is the maximal cumulative reward (or weight) that the controller can guarantee. We consider the classical mean-payoff (aka limit-average) objective, which is a basic and fundamental objective. Howard's policy iteration algorithm is a popular method for solving DMDPs with mean-payoff objectives. Although Howard's algorithm performs well in practice, as experimental studies suggested, the best known upper bound is exponential and the current known lower bound is as follows: For the input size $I$, the algorithm requires $\tildeΩ(\sqrt{I})$ iterations, where $\tildeΩ$ hides the poly-logarithmic factors, i.e., the current lower bound on iterations is sub-linear with respect to the input size. Our main result is an improved lower bound for this fundamental algorithm where we show that for the input size $I$, the algorithm requires $\tildeΩ(I)$ iterations.


Improved Ground State Estimation in Quantum Field Theories via Normalising Flow-Assisted Neural Quantum States

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a hybrid variational framework that enhances Neural Quantum States (NQS) with a Normalising Flow-based sampler to improve the expressivity and trainability of quantum many-body wavefunctions. Our approach decouples the sampling task from the variational ansatz by learning a continuous flow model that targets a discretised, amplitude-supported subspace of the Hilbert space. This overcomes limitations of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and autoregressive methods, especially in regimes with long-range correlations and volume-law entanglement. Applied to the transverse-field Ising model with both short- and long-range interactions, our method achieves comparable ground state energy errors with state-of-the-art matrix product states and lower energies than autoregressive NQS. For systems up to 50 spins, we demonstrate high accuracy and robust convergence across a wide range of coupling strengths, including regimes where competing methods fail. Our results showcase the utility of flow-assisted sampling as a scalable tool for quantum simulation and offer a new approach toward learning expressive quantum states in high-dimensional Hilbert spaces.


XPG-RL: Reinforcement Learning with Explainable Priority Guidance for Efficiency-Boosted Mechanical Search

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose XPG-RL, a reinforcement learning framework for mechanical search tasks. XPG-RL leverages task-guided action prioritization and learns context-aware switching over action primitives, effectively reducing redundant manipulations and improving task efficiency. The figure shows the manipulator successfully grasping a target object ( banana) in a densely cluttered real-world scene. Abstract --Mechanical search (MS) in cluttered environments remains a significant challenge for autonomous manipulators, requiring long-horizon planning and robust state estimation under occlusions and partial observability. In this work, we introduce XPG-RL, a reinforcement learning framework that enables agents to efficiently perform MS tasks through explainable, priority-guided decision-making based on raw sensory inputs. XPG-RL integrates a task-driven action prioritization mechanism with a learned context-aware switching strategy that dynamically selects from a discrete set of action primitives such as target grasping, occlusion removal, and viewpoint adjustment. Within this strategy, a policy is optimized to output adaptive threshold values that govern the discrete selection among action primitives. The perception module fuses RGB-D inputs with semantic and geometric features to produce a structured scene representation for downstream decision-making.


Ising Models with Hidden Markov Structure: Applications to Probabilistic Inference in Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we investigate tree-indexed Markov chains (Gibbs measures) defined by a Hamiltonian that couples two Ising layers: hidden spins \(s(x) \in \{\pm 1\}\) and observed spins \(σ(x) \in \{\pm 1\}\) on a Cayley tree. The Hamiltonian incorporates Ising interactions within each layer and site-wise emission couplings between layers, extending hidden Markov models to a bilayer Markov random field. Specifically, we explore translation-invariant Gibbs measures (TIGM) of this Hamiltonian on Cayley trees. Under certain explicit conditions on the model's parameters, we demonstrate that there can be up to three distinct TIGMs. Each of these measures represents an equilibrium state of the spin system. These measures provide a structured approach to inference on hierarchical data in machine learning. They have practical applications in tasks such as denoising, weakly supervised learning, and anomaly detection. The Cayley tree structure is particularly advantageous for exact inference due to its tractability.