Learning Graphical Models
Emotionally Intelligent Task-oriented Dialogue Systems: Architecture, Representation, and Optimisation
Feng, Shutong, Lin, Hsien-chin, Lubis, Nurul, van Niekerk, Carel, Heck, Michael, Ruppik, Benjamin, Vukovic, Renato, Gašić, Milica
Task-oriented dialogue (ToD) systems are designed to help users achieve specific goals through natural language interaction. While recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly improved linguistic fluency and contextual understanding, building effective and emotionally intelligent ToD systems remains a complex challenge. Effective ToD systems must optimise for task success, emotional understanding and responsiveness, and precise information conveyance, all within inherently noisy and ambiguous conversational environments. In this work, we investigate architectural, representational, optimisational as well as emotional considerations of ToD systems. We set up systems covering these design considerations with a challenging evaluation environment composed of a natural-language user simulator coupled with an imperfect natural language understanding module. We propose \textbf{LUSTER}, an \textbf{L}LM-based \textbf{U}nified \textbf{S}ystem for \textbf{T}ask-oriented dialogue with \textbf{E}nd-to-end \textbf{R}einforcement learning with both short-term (user sentiment) and long-term (task success) rewards. Our findings demonstrate that combining LLM capability with structured reward modelling leads to more resilient and emotionally responsive ToD systems, offering a practical path forward for next-generation conversational agents.
Inherited or produced? Inferring protein production kinetics when protein counts are shaped by a cell's division history
Pessoa, Pedro, Martinez, Juan Andres, Vandenbroucke, Vincent, Delvigne, Frank, Pressé, Steve
Inferring protein production kinetics for dividing cells is complicated due to protein inheritance from the mother cell. For instance, fluorescence measurements -- commonly used to assess gene activation -- may reflect not only newly produced proteins but also those inherited through successive cell divisions. In such cases, observed protein levels in any given cell are shaped by its division history. As a case study, we examine activation of the glc3 gene in yeast involved in glycogen synthesis and expressed under nutrient-limiting conditions. We monitor this activity using snapshot fluorescence measurements via flow cytometry, where GFP expression reflects glc3 promoter activity. A naïve analysis of flow cytometry data ignoring cell division suggests many cells are active with low expression. Explicitly accounting for the (non-Markovian) effects of cell division and protein inheritance makes it impossible to write down a tractable likelihood -- a key ingredient in physics-inspired inference, defining the probability of observing data given a model. The dependence on a cell's division history breaks the assumptions of standard (Markovian) master equations, rendering traditional likelihood-based approaches inapplicable. Instead, we adapt conditional normalizing flows (a class of neural network models designed to learn probability distributions) to approximate otherwise intractable likelihoods from simulated data. In doing so, we find that glc3 is mostly inactive under stress, showing that while cells occasionally activate the gene, expression is brief and transient.
Parsimonious Gaussian mixture models with piecewise-constant eigenvalue profiles
Szwagier, Tom, Mattei, Pierre-Alexandre, Bouveyron, Charles, Pennec, Xavier
Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are ubiquitous in statistical learning, particularly for unsupervised problems. While full GMMs suffer from the overparameterization of their covariance matrices in high-dimensional spaces, spherical GMMs (with isotropic covariance matrices) certainly lack flexibility to fit certain anisotropic distributions. Connecting these two extremes, we introduce a new family of parsimonious GMMs with piecewise-constant covariance eigenvalue profiles. These extend several low-rank models like the celebrated mixtures of probabilistic principal component analyzers (MPPCA), by enabling any possible sequence of eigenvalue multiplicities. If the latter are prespecified, then we can naturally derive an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to learn the mixture parameters. Otherwise, to address the notoriously-challenging issue of jointly learning the mixture parameters and hyperparameters, we propose a componentwise penalized EM algorithm, whose monotonicity is proven. We show the superior likelihood-parsimony tradeoffs achieved by our models on a variety of unsupervised experiments: density fitting, clustering and single-image denoising.
Variational Digital Twins
Burnett, Logan A., Nabila, Umme Mahbuba, Radaideh, Majdi I.
While digital twins (DT) hold promise for providing real-time insights into complex energy assets, much of the current literature either does not offer a clear framework for information exchange between the model and the asset, lacks key features needed for real-time implementation, or gives limited attention to model uncertainty. Here, we aim to solve these gaps by proposing a variational digital twin (VDT) framework that augments standard neural architectures with a single Bayesian output layer. This lightweight addition, along with a novel VDT updating algorithm, lets a twin update in seconds on commodity GPUs while producing calibrated uncertainty bounds that can inform experiment design, control algorithms, and model reliability. The VDT is evaluated on four energy-sector problems. For critical-heat-flux prediction, uncertainty-driven active learning reaches R2 = 0.98 using 47 % fewer experiments and one-third the training time of random sampling. A three-year renewable-generation twin maintains R2 > 0.95 for solar output and curbs error growth for volatile wind forecasts via monthly updates that process only one month of data at a time. A nuclear reactor transient cooldown twin reconstructs thermocouple signals with R2 > 0.99 and preserves accuracy after 50 % sensor loss, demonstrating robustness to degraded instrumentation. Finally, a physics-informed Li-ion battery twin, retrained after every ten discharges, lowers voltage mean-squared error by an order of magnitude relative to the best static model while adapting its credible intervals as the cell approaches end-of-life. These results demonstrate that combining modest Bayesian augmentation with efficient update schemes turns conventional surrogates into uncertainty-aware, data-efficient, and computationally tractable DTs, paving the way for dependable models across industrial and scientific energy systems.
Gym4ReaL: A Suite for Benchmarking Real-World Reinforcement Learning
Salaorni, Davide, De Paola, Vincenzo, Delpero, Samuele, Dispoto, Giovanni, Bonetti, Paolo, Russo, Alessio, Calcagno, Giuseppe, Trovò, Francesco, Papini, Matteo, Metelli, Alberto Maria, Mussi, Marco, Restelli, Marcello
In recent years, \emph{Reinforcement Learning} (RL) has made remarkable progress, achieving superhuman performance in a wide range of simulated environments. As research moves toward deploying RL in real-world applications, the field faces a new set of challenges inherent to real-world settings, such as large state-action spaces, non-stationarity, and partial observability. Despite their importance, these challenges are often underexplored in current benchmarks, which tend to focus on idealized, fully observable, and stationary environments, often neglecting to incorporate real-world complexities explicitly. In this paper, we introduce \texttt{Gym4ReaL}, a comprehensive suite of realistic environments designed to support the development and evaluation of RL algorithms that can operate in real-world scenarios. The suite includes a diverse set of tasks that expose algorithms to a variety of practical challenges. Our experimental results show that, in these settings, standard RL algorithms confirm their competitiveness against rule-based benchmarks, motivating the development of new methods to fully exploit the potential of RL to tackle the complexities of real-world tasks.
Gregorian melody, modality, and memory: Segmenting chant with Bayesian nonparametrics
The idea that Gregorian melodies are constructed from some vocabulary of segments has long been a part of chant scholarship. This so-called "centonisation" theory has received much musicological criticism, but frequent re-use of certain melodic segments has been observed in chant melodies, and the intractable number of possible segmentations allowed the option that some undiscovered segmentation exists that will yet prove the value of centonisation, and recent empirical results have shown that segmentations can outperform music-theoretical features in mode classification. Inspired by the fact that Gregorian chant was memorised, we search for an optimal unsupervised segmentation of chant melody using nested hierarchical Pitman-Yor language models. The segmentation we find achieves state-of-the-art performance in mode classification. Modeling a monk memorising the melodies from one liturgical manuscript, we then find empirical evidence for the link between mode classification and memory efficiency, and observe more formulaic areas at the beginnings and ends of melodies corresponding to the practical role of modality in performance. However, the resulting segmentations themselves indicate that even such a memory-optimal segmentation is not what is understood as centonisation.
Conceptual Framework Toward Embodied Collective Adaptive Intelligence
Collective Adaptive Intelligence (CAI) represent a transformative approach in embodied AI, wherein numerous autonomous agents collaborate, adapt, and self-organize to navigate complex, dynamic environments. By enabling systems to reconfigure themselves in response to unforeseen challenges, CAI facilitate robust performance in real-world scenarios. This article introduces a conceptual framework for designing and analyzing CAI. It delineates key attributes including task generalization, resilience, scalability, and self-assembly, aiming to bridge theoretical foundations with practical methodologies for engineering adaptive, emergent intelligence. By providing a structured foundation for understanding and implementing CAI, this work seeks to guide researchers and practitioners in developing more resilient, scalable, and adaptable AI systems across various domains.
Duality and Policy Evaluation in Distributionally Robust Bayesian Diffusion Control
Blanchet, Jose, Cheng, Jiayi, Liu, Hao, Liu, Yang
We consider a Bayesian diffusion control problem of expected terminal utility maximization. The controller imposes a prior distribution on the unknown drift of an underlying diffusion. The Bayesian optimal control, tracking the posterior distribution of the unknown drift, can be characterized explicitly. However, in practice, the prior will generally be incorrectly specified, and the degree of model misspecification can have a significant impact on policy performance. To mitigate this and reduce overpessimism, we introduce a distributionally robust Bayesian control (DRBC) formulation in which the controller plays a game against an adversary who selects a prior in divergence neighborhood of a baseline prior. The adversarial approach has been studied in economics and efficient algorithms have been proposed in static optimization settings. We develop a strong duality result for our DRBC formulation. Combining these results together with tools from stochastic analysis, we are able to derive a loss that can be efficiently trained (as we demonstrate in our numerical experiments) using a suitable neural network architecture. As a result, we obtain an effective algorithm for computing the DRBC optimal strategy. The methodology for computing the DRBC optimal strategy is greatly simplified, as we show, in the important case in which the adversary chooses a prior from a Kullback-Leibler distributional uncertainty set.
Harnessing the Power of Reinforcement Learning for Adaptive MCMC
Wang, Congye, Fisher, Matthew A., Kanagawa, Heishiro, Chen, Wilson, Oates, Chris. J.
Sampling algorithms drive probabilistic machine learning, and recent years have seen an explosion in the diversity of tools for this task. However, the increasing sophistication of sampling algorithms is correlated with an increase in the tuning burden. There is now a greater need than ever to treat the tuning of samplers as a learning task in its own right. In a conceptual breakthrough, Wang et al (2025) formulated Metropolis-Hastings as a Markov decision process, opening up the possibility for adaptive tuning using Reinforcement Learning (RL). Their emphasis was on theoretical foundations; realising the practical benefit of Reinforcement Learning Metropolis-Hastings (RLMH) was left for subsequent work. The purpose of this paper is twofold: First, we observe the surprising result that natural choices of reward, such as the acceptance rate, or the expected squared jump distance, provide insufficient signal for training RLMH. Instead, we propose a novel reward based on the contrastive divergence, whose superior performance in the context of RLMH is demonstrated. Second, we explore the potential of RLMH and present adaptive gradient-based samplers that balance flexibility of the Markov transition kernel with learnability of the associated RL task. A comprehensive simulation study using the posteriordb benchmark supports the practical effectiveness of RLMH.
GANs Secretly Perform Approximate Bayesian Model Selection
Filippone, Maurizio, Linhard, Marius P.
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are popular and successful generative models. Despite their success, optimization is notoriously challenging and they require regularization against overfitting. In this work, we explain the success and limitations of GANs by interpreting them as probabilistic generative models. This interpretation enables us to view GANs as Bayesian neural networks with partial stochasticity, allowing us to establish conditions of universal approximation. We can then cast the adversarial-style optimization of several variants of GANs as the optimization of a proxy for the marginal likelihood. Taking advantage of the connection between marginal likelihood optimization and Occam's razor, we can define regularization and optimization strategies to smooth the loss landscape and search for solutions with minimum description length, which are associated with flat minima and good generalization. The results on a wide range of experiments indicate that these strategies lead to performance improvements and pave the way to a deeper understanding of regularization strategies for GANs.