While digital twins (DT) hold promise for providing real-time insights into complex energy assets, much of the current literature either does not offer a clear framework for information exchange between the model and the asset, lacks key features needed for real-time implementation, or gives limited attention to model uncertainty. Here, we aim to solve these gaps by proposing a variational digital twin (VDT) framework that augments standard neural architectures with a single Bayesian output layer. This lightweight addition, along with a novel VDT updating algorithm, lets a twin update in seconds on commodity GPUs while producing calibrated uncertainty bounds that can inform experiment design, control algorithms, and model reliability. The VDT is evaluated on four energy-sector problems. For critical-heat-flux prediction, uncertainty-driven active learning reaches R2 = 0.98 using 47 % fewer experiments and one-third the training time of random sampling. A three-year renewable-generation twin maintains R2 > 0.95 for solar output and curbs error growth for volatile wind forecasts via monthly updates that process only one month of data at a time. A nuclear reactor transient cooldown twin reconstructs thermocouple signals with R2 > 0.99 and preserves accuracy after 50 % sensor loss, demonstrating robustness to degraded instrumentation. Finally, a physics-informed Li-ion battery twin, retrained after every ten discharges, lowers voltage mean-squared error by an order of magnitude relative to the best static model while adapting its credible intervals as the cell approaches end-of-life. These results demonstrate that combining modest Bayesian augmentation with efficient update schemes turns conventional surrogates into uncertainty-aware, data-efficient, and computationally tractable DTs, paving the way for dependable models across industrial and scientific energy systems.

In recent years, \emph{Reinforcement Learning} (RL) has made remarkable progress, achieving superhuman performance in a wide range of simulated environments. As research moves toward deploying RL in real-world applications, the field faces a new set of challenges inherent to real-world settings, such as large state-action spaces, non-stationarity, and partial observability. Despite their importance, these challenges are often underexplored in current benchmarks, which tend to focus on idealized, fully observable, and stationary environments, often neglecting to incorporate real-world complexities explicitly. In this paper, we introduce \texttt{Gym4ReaL}, a comprehensive suite of realistic environments designed to support the development and evaluation of RL algorithms that can operate in real-world scenarios. The suite includes a diverse set of tasks that expose algorithms to a variety of practical challenges. Our experimental results show that, in these settings, standard RL algorithms confirm their competitiveness against rule-based benchmarks, motivating the development of new methods to fully exploit the potential of RL to tackle the complexities of real-world tasks.

The idea that Gregorian melodies are constructed from some vocabulary of segments has long been a part of chant scholarship. This so-called "centonisation" theory has received much musicological criticism, but frequent re-use of certain melodic segments has been observed in chant melodies, and the intractable number of possible segmentations allowed the option that some undiscovered segmentation exists that will yet prove the value of centonisation, and recent empirical results have shown that segmentations can outperform music-theoretical features in mode classification. Inspired by the fact that Gregorian chant was memorised, we search for an optimal unsupervised segmentation of chant melody using nested hierarchical Pitman-Yor language models. The segmentation we find achieves state-of-the-art performance in mode classification. Modeling a monk memorising the melodies from one liturgical manuscript, we then find empirical evidence for the link between mode classification and memory efficiency, and observe more formulaic areas at the beginnings and ends of melodies corresponding to the practical role of modality in performance. However, the resulting segmentations themselves indicate that even such a memory-optimal segmentation is not what is understood as centonisation.

Collective Adaptive Intelligence (CAI) represent a transformative approach in embodied AI, wherein numerous autonomous agents collaborate, adapt, and self-organize to navigate complex, dynamic environments. By enabling systems to reconfigure themselves in response to unforeseen challenges, CAI facilitate robust performance in real-world scenarios. This article introduces a conceptual framework for designing and analyzing CAI. It delineates key attributes including task generalization, resilience, scalability, and self-assembly, aiming to bridge theoretical foundations with practical methodologies for engineering adaptive, emergent intelligence. By providing a structured foundation for understanding and implementing CAI, this work seeks to guide researchers and practitioners in developing more resilient, scalable, and adaptable AI systems across various domains.

We consider a Bayesian diffusion control problem of expected terminal utility maximization. The controller imposes a prior distribution on the unknown drift of an underlying diffusion. The Bayesian optimal control, tracking the posterior distribution of the unknown drift, can be characterized explicitly. However, in practice, the prior will generally be incorrectly specified, and the degree of model misspecification can have a significant impact on policy performance. To mitigate this and reduce overpessimism, we introduce a distributionally robust Bayesian control (DRBC) formulation in which the controller plays a game against an adversary who selects a prior in divergence neighborhood of a baseline prior. The adversarial approach has been studied in economics and efficient algorithms have been proposed in static optimization settings. We develop a strong duality result for our DRBC formulation. Combining these results together with tools from stochastic analysis, we are able to derive a loss that can be efficiently trained (as we demonstrate in our numerical experiments) using a suitable neural network architecture. As a result, we obtain an effective algorithm for computing the DRBC optimal strategy. The methodology for computing the DRBC optimal strategy is greatly simplified, as we show, in the important case in which the adversary chooses a prior from a Kullback-Leibler distributional uncertainty set.

Sampling algorithms drive probabilistic machine learning, and recent years have seen an explosion in the diversity of tools for this task. However, the increasing sophistication of sampling algorithms is correlated with an increase in the tuning burden. There is now a greater need than ever to treat the tuning of samplers as a learning task in its own right. In a conceptual breakthrough, Wang et al (2025) formulated Metropolis-Hastings as a Markov decision process, opening up the possibility for adaptive tuning using Reinforcement Learning (RL). Their emphasis was on theoretical foundations; realising the practical benefit of Reinforcement Learning Metropolis-Hastings (RLMH) was left for subsequent work. The purpose of this paper is twofold: First, we observe the surprising result that natural choices of reward, such as the acceptance rate, or the expected squared jump distance, provide insufficient signal for training RLMH. Instead, we propose a novel reward based on the contrastive divergence, whose superior performance in the context of RLMH is demonstrated. Second, we explore the potential of RLMH and present adaptive gradient-based samplers that balance flexibility of the Markov transition kernel with learnability of the associated RL task. A comprehensive simulation study using the posteriordb benchmark supports the practical effectiveness of RLMH.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are popular and successful generative models. Despite their success, optimization is notoriously challenging and they require regularization against overfitting. In this work, we explain the success and limitations of GANs by interpreting them as probabilistic generative models. This interpretation enables us to view GANs as Bayesian neural networks with partial stochasticity, allowing us to establish conditions of universal approximation. We can then cast the adversarial-style optimization of several variants of GANs as the optimization of a proxy for the marginal likelihood. Taking advantage of the connection between marginal likelihood optimization and Occam's razor, we can define regularization and optimization strategies to smooth the loss landscape and search for solutions with minimum description length, which are associated with flat minima and good generalization. The results on a wide range of experiments indicate that these strategies lead to performance improvements and pave the way to a deeper understanding of regularization strategies for GANs.

This paper introduces a new type of probabilistic semiparametric model that takes advantage of data binning to reduce the computational cost of kernel density estimation in nonparametric distributions. Two new conditional probability distributions are developed for the new binned semiparametric Bayesian networks, the sparse binned kernel density estimation and the Fourier kernel density estimation. These two probability distributions address the curse of dimensionality, which typically impacts binned models, by using sparse tensors and restricting the number of parent nodes in conditional probability calculations. To evaluate the proposal, we perform a complexity analysis and conduct several comparative experiments using synthetic data and datasets from the UCI Machine Learning repository. The experiments include different binning rules, parent restrictions, grid sizes, and number of instances to get a holistic view of the model's behavior. As a result, our binned semiparametric Bayesian networks achieve structural learning and log-likelihood estimations with no statistically significant differences compared to the semiparametric Bayesian networks, but at a much higher speed. Thus, the new binned semiparametric Bayesian networks prove to be a reliable and more efficient alternative to their non-binned counterparts.

Our goal is to enable robots to plan sequences of tabletop actions to push a block with unknown physical properties to a desired goal pose. We approach this problem by learning the constituent models of a Partially-Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), where the robot can observe the outcome of a push, but the physical properties of the block that govern the dynamics remain unknown. A common solution approach is to train an observation model in a supervised fashion, and do inference with a general inference technique such as particle filters. However, supervised training requires knowledge of the relevant physical properties that determine the problem dynamics, which we do not assume to be known. Planning also requires simulating many belief updates, which becomes expensive when using particle filters to represent the belief. We propose to learn an Attentive Neural Process that computes the belief over a learned latent representation of the relevant physical properties given a history of actions. To address the pushing planning problem, we integrate a trained Neural Process with a double-progressive widening sampling strategy. Simulation results indicate that Neural Process Tree with Double Progressive Widening (NPT-DPW) generates better-performing plans faster than traditional particle-filter methods that use a supervised-trained observation model, even in complex pushing scenarios.

A structural optimization scheme for a single-layer nonnegative adaptive tensor tree (NATT) that models a target probability distribution is proposed as an alternative paradigm for generative modeling. The NATT scheme, by construction, automatically searches for a tree structure that best fits a given discrete dataset whose features serve as inputs, and has the advantage that it is interpretable as a probabilistic graphical model. We consider the NATT scheme and a recently proposed Born machine adaptive tensor tree (BMATT) optimization scheme and demonstrate their effectiveness on a variety of generative modeling tasks where the objective is to infer the hidden structure of a provided dataset. Our results show that in terms of minimizing the negative log-likelihood, the single-layer scheme has model performance comparable to the Born machine scheme, though not better. The tasks include deducing the structure of binary bitwise operations, learning the internal structure of random Bayesian networks given only visible sites, and a real-world example related to hierarchical clustering where a cladogram is constructed from mitochondrial DNA sequences. In doing so, we also show the importance of the choice of network topology and the versatility of a least-mutual information criterion in selecting a candidate structure for a tensor tree, as well as discuss aspects of these tensor tree generative models including their information content and interpretability.