Learning Graphical Models
Mission-Aligned Learning-Informed Control of Autonomous Systems: Formulation and Foundations
Kungurtsev, Vyacheslav, Sir, Gustav, Anand, Akhil, Gros, Sebastien, Tian, Haozhe, Hamedmoghadam, Homayoun
Research, innovation and practical capital investment have been increasing rapidly toward the realization of autonomous physical agents. This includes industrial and service robots, unmanned aerial vehicles, embedded control devices, and a number of other realizations of cybernetic/mechatronic implementations of intelligent autonomous devices. In this paper, we consider a stylized version of robotic care, which would normally involve a two-level Reinforcement Learning procedure that trains a policy for both lower level physical movement decisions as well as higher level conceptual tasks and their sub-components. In order to deliver greater safety and reliability in the system, we present the general formulation of this as a two-level optimization scheme which incorporates control at the lower level, and classical planning at the higher level, integrated with a capacity for learning. This synergistic integration of multiple methodologies -- control, classical planning, and RL -- presents an opportunity for greater insight for algorithm development, leading to more efficient and reliable performance. Here, the notion of reliability pertains to physical safety and interpretability into an otherwise black box operation of autonomous agents, concerning users and regulators. This work presents the necessary background and general formulation of the optimization framework, detailing each component and its integration with the others.
A Comprehensive Survey on Network Traffic Synthesis: From Statistical Models to Deep Learning
Sivaroopan, Nirhoshan, Silva, Kaushitha, Madarasingha, Chamara, Dahanayaka, Thilini, Jourjon, Guillaume, Jayasumana, Anura, Thilakarathna, Kanchana
The limitations of the Poisson process were more evident when modeling high-speed network traffic, particularly real-time data traffic modeling for next-generation networks. For example, Liji et al. [85] demonstrated that the Stationary Poison Increment Process can only model Short Range Dependence (SRD) but not LRD. To address this limitation, the authors proposed using second-order self-similarity models, such as fractional Gaussian noise and fractional ARIMA processes, as a more appropriate approach. In the meantime, researchers also explored modeling data center network traffic using poisson processes. To better simulate realistic traffic in data center environments, the generation of flow-level network traffic matrices based on the poisson shot-noise model is proposed in [172]. By incorporating factors such as flow arrival rates, intra-rack traffic ratios, flow sizes and durations, the poisson shot-noise process offers a more accurate representation of traffic patterns in data centers. B. Weibull distribution As discussed earlier, the limitations of Poisson processes for modeling network traffic led to exploring other distributions. One such promising model was the Weibull distribution, mainly due to its flexibility to model both heavy and non-heavy tailed distributions [11].
DeepSupp: Attention-Driven Correlation Pattern Analysis for Dynamic Time Series Support and Resistance Levels Identification
Kriuk, Boris, Ng, Logic, Hossain, Zarif Al
Support and resistance (SR) levels are central to technical analysis, guiding traders in entry, exit, and risk management. Despite widespread use, traditional SR identification methods often fail to adapt to the complexities of modern, volatile markets. Recent research has introduced machine learning techniques to address the following challenges, yet most focus on price prediction rather than structural level identification. This paper presents DeepSupp, a new deep learning approach for detecting financial support levels using multi-head attention mechanisms to analyze spatial correlations and market microstructure relationships. Deep-Supp integrates advanced feature engineering, constructing dynamic correlation matrices that capture evolving market relationships, and employs an attention-based autoencoder for robust representation learning. The final support levels are extracted through unsupervised clustering, leveraging DBSCAN to identify significant price thresholds. Comprehensive evaluations on S&P 500 tickers demonstrate that DeepSupp outperforms six baseline methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance across six financial metrics, including essential support accuracy and market regime sensitivity. With consistent results across diverse market conditions, DeepSupp addresses critical gaps in SR level detection, offering a scalable and reliable solution for modern financial analysis. Our approach highlights the potential of attention-based architectures to uncover nuanced market patterns and improve technical trading strategies.
MInCo: Mitigating Information Conflicts in Distracted Visual Model-based Reinforcement Learning
Sun, Shiguang, Zhang, Hanbo, Liu, Zeyang, Yang, Xinrui, Wan, Lipeng, Chen, Xingyu, Lan, Xuguang
Existing visual model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) algorithms with observation reconstruction often suffer from information conflicts, making it difficult to learn compact representations and hence result in less robust policies, especially in the presence of task-irrelevant visual distractions. In this paper, we first reveal that the information conflicts in current visual MBRL algorithms stem from visual representation learning and latent dynamics modeling with an information-theoretic perspective. Based on this finding, we present a new algorithm to resolve information conflicts for visual MBRL, named MInCo, which mitigates information conflicts by leveraging negative-free contrastive learning, aiding in learning invariant representation and robust policies despite noisy observations. To prevent the dominance of visual representation learning, we introduce time-varying reweighting to bias the learning towards dynamics modeling as training proceeds. We evaluate our method on several robotic control tasks with dynamic background distractions. Our experiments demonstrate that MInCo learns invariant representations against background noise and consistently outperforms current state-of-the-art visual MBRL methods. Code is available at https://github.com/ShiguangSun/minco.
RLHGNN: Reinforcement Learning-driven Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network for Next Activity Prediction in Business Processes
Wang, Jiaxing, Yu, Yifeng, Song, Jiahan, Cao, Bin, Fan, Jing, Zhang, Ji
--Next activity prediction represents a fundamental challenge for optimizing business processes in service-oriented architectures such as microservices environments, distributed enterprise systems, and cloud-native platforms, which enables proactive resource allocation and dynamic service composition. Despite the prevalence of sequence-based methods, these approaches fail to capture non-sequential relationships that arise from parallel executions and conditional dependencies. Even though graph-based approaches address structural preservation, they suffer from homogeneous representations and static structures that apply uniform modeling strategies regardless of individual process complexity characteristics. T o address these limitations, we introduce RLHGNN, a novel framework that transforms event logs into heterogeneous process graphs with three distinct edge types grounded in established process mining theory. Our approach creates four flexible graph structures by selectively combining these edges to accommodate different process complexities, and employs reinforcement learning formulated as a Markov Decision Process to automatically determine the optimal graph structure for each specific process instance. RLHGNN then applies heterogeneous graph convolution with relation-specific aggregation strategies to effectively predict the next activity. This adaptive methodology enables precise modeling of both sequential and non-sequential relationships in service interactions. Comprehensive evaluation on six real-world datasets demonstrates that RLHGNN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches. Furthermore, it maintains an inference latency of approximately 1 ms per prediction, representing a highly practical solution suitable for real-time business process monitoring applications. Service-oriented architectures have fundamentally transformed modern business process implementation, which enables distributed services to coordinate through well-defined interfaces for delivering substantial business value [1], [2]. Jiaxing Wang, Yifeng Y u, Jiahan Song, Bin Cao, and Jing Fan are with the College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University of Technology, 310023, Hangzhou, China, and also with Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Visual Information Intelligent Processing, 310023, Hangzhou, China (email: wjx@zjut.edu.cn,
Sample Complexity Bounds for Linear Constrained MDPs with a Generative Model
Liu, Xingtu, Yang, Lin F., Vaswani, Sharan
We consider infinite-horizon $γ$-discounted (linear) constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) where the objective is to find a policy that maximizes the expected cumulative reward subject to expected cumulative constraints. Given access to a generative model, we propose to solve CMDPs with a primal-dual framework that can leverage any black-box unconstrained MDP solver. For linear CMDPs with feature dimension $d$, we instantiate the framework by using mirror descent value iteration (\texttt{MDVI})~\citep{kitamura2023regularization} an example MDP solver. We provide sample complexity bounds for the resulting CMDP algorithm in two cases: (i) relaxed feasibility, where small constraint violations are allowed, and (ii) strict feasibility, where the output policy is required to exactly satisfy the constraint. For (i), we prove that the algorithm can return an $ε$-optimal policy with high probability by using $\tilde{O}\left(\frac{d^2}{(1-γ)^4ε^2}\right)$ samples. We note that these results exhibit a near-optimal dependence on both $d$ and $ε$. For (ii), we show that the algorithm requires $\tilde{O}\left(\frac{d^2}{(1-γ)^6ε^2ζ^2}\right)$ samples, where $ζ$ is the problem-dependent Slater constant that characterizes the size of the feasible region. Finally, we instantiate our framework for tabular CMDPs and show that it can be used to recover near-optimal sample complexities in this setting.
Generating Hypotheses of Dynamic Causal Graphs in Neuroscience: Leveraging Generative Factor Models of Observed Time Series
Brown, Zachary C., Carlson, David
The field of hypothesis generation promises to reduce costs in neuroscience by narrowing the range of interventional studies needed to study various phenomena. Existing machine learning methods can generate scientific hypotheses from complex datasets, but many approaches assume causal relationships are static over time, limiting their applicability to systems with dynamic, state-dependent behavior, such as the brain. While some techniques attempt dynamic causal discovery through factor models, they often restrict relationships to linear patterns or impose other simplifying assumptions. We propose a novel method that models dynamic graphs as a conditionally weighted superposition of static graphs, where each static graph can capture nonlinear relationships. This approach enables the detection of complex, time-varying interactions between variables beyond linear limitations. Our method improves f1-scores of predicted dynamic causal patterns by roughly 22-28% on average over baselines in some of our experiments, with some improvements reaching well over 60%. A case study on real brain data demonstrates our method's ability to uncover relationships linked to specific behavioral states, offering valuable insights into neural dynamics.
MISC: Minimal Intervention Shared Control with Guaranteed Safety under Non-Convex Constraints
Chaubey, Shivam, Verdoja, Francesco, Deka, Shankar, Kyrki, Ville
Shared control combines human intention with autonomous decision-making, from low-level safety overrides to high-level task guidance, enabling systems that adapt to users while ensuring safety and performance. This enhances task effectiveness and user experience across domains such as assistive robotics, teleoperation, and autonomous driving. However, existing shared control methods, based on e.g. Model Predictive Control, Control Barrier Functions, or learning-based control, struggle with feasibility, scalability, or safety guarantees, particularly since the user input is unpredictable. To address these challenges, we propose an assistive controller framework based on Constrained Optimal Control Problem that incorporates an offline-computed Control Invariant Set, enabling online computation of control actions that ensure feasibility, strict constraint satisfaction, and minimal override of user intent. Moreover, the framework can accommodate structured class of non-convex constraints, which are common in real-world scenarios. We validate the approach through a large-scale user study with 66 participants--one of the most extensive in shared control research--using a computer game environment to assess task load, trust, and perceived control, in addition to performance. The results show consistent improvements across all these aspects without compromising safety and user intent.
Adapting Probabilistic Risk Assessment for AI
Wisakanto, Anna Katariina, Rogero, Joe, Casheekar, Avyay M., Mallah, Richard
Modern general-purpose artificial intelligence (AI) systems present an urgent risk management challenge, as their rapidly evolving capabilities and potential for catastrophic harm outpace our ability to reliably assess their risks. Current methods often rely on selective testing and undocumented assumptions about risk priorities, frequently failing to make a serious attempt at assessing the set of pathways through which AI systems pose direct or indirect risks to society and the biosphere. This paper introduces the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for AI framework, adapting established PRA techniques from high-reliability industries (e.g., nuclear power, aerospace) for the new challenges of advanced AI. The framework guides assessors in identifying potential risks, estimating likelihood and severity bands, and explicitly documenting evidence, underlying assumptions, and analyses at appropriate granularities. The framework's implementation tool synthesizes the results into a risk report card with aggregated risk estimates from all assessed risks. It introduces three methodological advances: (1) Aspect-oriented hazard analysis provides systematic hazard coverage guided by a first-principles taxonomy of AI system aspects (e.g. capabilities, domain knowledge, affordances); (2) Risk pathway modeling analyzes causal chains from system aspects to societal impacts using bidirectional analysis and incorporating prospective techniques; and (3) Uncertainty management employs scenario decomposition, reference scales, and explicit tracing protocols to structure credible projections with novelty or limited data. Additionally, the framework harmonizes diverse assessment methods by integrating evidence into comparable, quantified absolute risk estimates for lifecycle decisions. We have implemented this as a workbook tool for AI developers, evaluators, and regulators.
B-PL-PINN: Stabilizing PINN Training with Bayesian Pseudo Labeling
Innerebner, Kevin, Rohrhofer, Franz M., Geiger, Bernhard C.
Training physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for forward problems often suffers from severe convergence issues, hindering the propagation of information from regions where the desired solution is well-defined. Haitsiukevich and Ilin (2023) proposed an ensemble approach that extends the active training domain of each PINN based on i) ensemble consensus and ii) vicinity to (pseudo-)labeled points, thus ensuring that the information from the initial condition successfully propagates to the interior of the computational domain. In this work, we suggest replacing the ensemble by a Bayesian PINN, and consensus by an evaluation of the PINN's posterior variance. Our experiments show that this mathematically principled approach outperforms the ensemble on a set of benchmark problems and is competitive with PINN ensembles trained with combinations of Adam and LBFGS.