Learning Graphical Models
MInCo: Mitigating Information Conflicts in Distracted Visual Model-based Reinforcement Learning
Sun, Shiguang, Zhang, Hanbo, Liu, Zeyang, Yang, Xinrui, Wan, Lipeng, Chen, Xingyu, Lan, Xuguang
Existing visual model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) algorithms with observation reconstruction often suffer from information conflicts, making it difficult to learn compact representations and hence result in less robust policies, especially in the presence of task-irrelevant visual distractions. In this paper, we first reveal that the information conflicts in current visual MBRL algorithms stem from visual representation learning and latent dynamics modeling with an information-theoretic perspective. Based on this finding, we present a new algorithm to resolve information conflicts for visual MBRL, named MInCo, which mitigates information conflicts by leveraging negative-free contrastive learning, aiding in learning invariant representation and robust policies despite noisy observations. To prevent the dominance of visual representation learning, we introduce time-varying reweighting to bias the learning towards dynamics modeling as training proceeds. We evaluate our method on several robotic control tasks with dynamic background distractions. Our experiments demonstrate that MInCo learns invariant representations against background noise and consistently outperforms current state-of-the-art visual MBRL methods. Code is available at https://github.com/ShiguangSun/minco.
RLHGNN: Reinforcement Learning-driven Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network for Next Activity Prediction in Business Processes
Wang, Jiaxing, Yu, Yifeng, Song, Jiahan, Cao, Bin, Fan, Jing, Zhang, Ji
--Next activity prediction represents a fundamental challenge for optimizing business processes in service-oriented architectures such as microservices environments, distributed enterprise systems, and cloud-native platforms, which enables proactive resource allocation and dynamic service composition. Despite the prevalence of sequence-based methods, these approaches fail to capture non-sequential relationships that arise from parallel executions and conditional dependencies. Even though graph-based approaches address structural preservation, they suffer from homogeneous representations and static structures that apply uniform modeling strategies regardless of individual process complexity characteristics. T o address these limitations, we introduce RLHGNN, a novel framework that transforms event logs into heterogeneous process graphs with three distinct edge types grounded in established process mining theory. Our approach creates four flexible graph structures by selectively combining these edges to accommodate different process complexities, and employs reinforcement learning formulated as a Markov Decision Process to automatically determine the optimal graph structure for each specific process instance. RLHGNN then applies heterogeneous graph convolution with relation-specific aggregation strategies to effectively predict the next activity. This adaptive methodology enables precise modeling of both sequential and non-sequential relationships in service interactions. Comprehensive evaluation on six real-world datasets demonstrates that RLHGNN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches. Furthermore, it maintains an inference latency of approximately 1 ms per prediction, representing a highly practical solution suitable for real-time business process monitoring applications. Service-oriented architectures have fundamentally transformed modern business process implementation, which enables distributed services to coordinate through well-defined interfaces for delivering substantial business value [1], [2]. Jiaxing Wang, Yifeng Y u, Jiahan Song, Bin Cao, and Jing Fan are with the College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University of Technology, 310023, Hangzhou, China, and also with Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Visual Information Intelligent Processing, 310023, Hangzhou, China (email: wjx@zjut.edu.cn,
Sample Complexity Bounds for Linear Constrained MDPs with a Generative Model
Liu, Xingtu, Yang, Lin F., Vaswani, Sharan
We consider infinite-horizon $γ$-discounted (linear) constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) where the objective is to find a policy that maximizes the expected cumulative reward subject to expected cumulative constraints. Given access to a generative model, we propose to solve CMDPs with a primal-dual framework that can leverage any black-box unconstrained MDP solver. For linear CMDPs with feature dimension $d$, we instantiate the framework by using mirror descent value iteration (\texttt{MDVI})~\citep{kitamura2023regularization} an example MDP solver. We provide sample complexity bounds for the resulting CMDP algorithm in two cases: (i) relaxed feasibility, where small constraint violations are allowed, and (ii) strict feasibility, where the output policy is required to exactly satisfy the constraint. For (i), we prove that the algorithm can return an $ε$-optimal policy with high probability by using $\tilde{O}\left(\frac{d^2}{(1-γ)^4ε^2}\right)$ samples. We note that these results exhibit a near-optimal dependence on both $d$ and $ε$. For (ii), we show that the algorithm requires $\tilde{O}\left(\frac{d^2}{(1-γ)^6ε^2ζ^2}\right)$ samples, where $ζ$ is the problem-dependent Slater constant that characterizes the size of the feasible region. Finally, we instantiate our framework for tabular CMDPs and show that it can be used to recover near-optimal sample complexities in this setting.
Generating Hypotheses of Dynamic Causal Graphs in Neuroscience: Leveraging Generative Factor Models of Observed Time Series
Brown, Zachary C., Carlson, David
The field of hypothesis generation promises to reduce costs in neuroscience by narrowing the range of interventional studies needed to study various phenomena. Existing machine learning methods can generate scientific hypotheses from complex datasets, but many approaches assume causal relationships are static over time, limiting their applicability to systems with dynamic, state-dependent behavior, such as the brain. While some techniques attempt dynamic causal discovery through factor models, they often restrict relationships to linear patterns or impose other simplifying assumptions. We propose a novel method that models dynamic graphs as a conditionally weighted superposition of static graphs, where each static graph can capture nonlinear relationships. This approach enables the detection of complex, time-varying interactions between variables beyond linear limitations. Our method improves f1-scores of predicted dynamic causal patterns by roughly 22-28% on average over baselines in some of our experiments, with some improvements reaching well over 60%. A case study on real brain data demonstrates our method's ability to uncover relationships linked to specific behavioral states, offering valuable insights into neural dynamics.
MISC: Minimal Intervention Shared Control with Guaranteed Safety under Non-Convex Constraints
Chaubey, Shivam, Verdoja, Francesco, Deka, Shankar, Kyrki, Ville
Shared control combines human intention with autonomous decision-making, from low-level safety overrides to high-level task guidance, enabling systems that adapt to users while ensuring safety and performance. This enhances task effectiveness and user experience across domains such as assistive robotics, teleoperation, and autonomous driving. However, existing shared control methods, based on e.g. Model Predictive Control, Control Barrier Functions, or learning-based control, struggle with feasibility, scalability, or safety guarantees, particularly since the user input is unpredictable. To address these challenges, we propose an assistive controller framework based on Constrained Optimal Control Problem that incorporates an offline-computed Control Invariant Set, enabling online computation of control actions that ensure feasibility, strict constraint satisfaction, and minimal override of user intent. Moreover, the framework can accommodate structured class of non-convex constraints, which are common in real-world scenarios. We validate the approach through a large-scale user study with 66 participants--one of the most extensive in shared control research--using a computer game environment to assess task load, trust, and perceived control, in addition to performance. The results show consistent improvements across all these aspects without compromising safety and user intent.
Adapting Probabilistic Risk Assessment for AI
Wisakanto, Anna Katariina, Rogero, Joe, Casheekar, Avyay M., Mallah, Richard
Modern general-purpose artificial intelligence (AI) systems present an urgent risk management challenge, as their rapidly evolving capabilities and potential for catastrophic harm outpace our ability to reliably assess their risks. Current methods often rely on selective testing and undocumented assumptions about risk priorities, frequently failing to make a serious attempt at assessing the set of pathways through which AI systems pose direct or indirect risks to society and the biosphere. This paper introduces the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for AI framework, adapting established PRA techniques from high-reliability industries (e.g., nuclear power, aerospace) for the new challenges of advanced AI. The framework guides assessors in identifying potential risks, estimating likelihood and severity bands, and explicitly documenting evidence, underlying assumptions, and analyses at appropriate granularities. The framework's implementation tool synthesizes the results into a risk report card with aggregated risk estimates from all assessed risks. It introduces three methodological advances: (1) Aspect-oriented hazard analysis provides systematic hazard coverage guided by a first-principles taxonomy of AI system aspects (e.g. capabilities, domain knowledge, affordances); (2) Risk pathway modeling analyzes causal chains from system aspects to societal impacts using bidirectional analysis and incorporating prospective techniques; and (3) Uncertainty management employs scenario decomposition, reference scales, and explicit tracing protocols to structure credible projections with novelty or limited data. Additionally, the framework harmonizes diverse assessment methods by integrating evidence into comparable, quantified absolute risk estimates for lifecycle decisions. We have implemented this as a workbook tool for AI developers, evaluators, and regulators.
B-PL-PINN: Stabilizing PINN Training with Bayesian Pseudo Labeling
Innerebner, Kevin, Rohrhofer, Franz M., Geiger, Bernhard C.
Training physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for forward problems often suffers from severe convergence issues, hindering the propagation of information from regions where the desired solution is well-defined. Haitsiukevich and Ilin (2023) proposed an ensemble approach that extends the active training domain of each PINN based on i) ensemble consensus and ii) vicinity to (pseudo-)labeled points, thus ensuring that the information from the initial condition successfully propagates to the interior of the computational domain. In this work, we suggest replacing the ensemble by a Bayesian PINN, and consensus by an evaluation of the PINN's posterior variance. Our experiments show that this mathematically principled approach outperforms the ensemble on a set of benchmark problems and is competitive with PINN ensembles trained with combinations of Adam and LBFGS.
Emotionally Intelligent Task-oriented Dialogue Systems: Architecture, Representation, and Optimisation
Feng, Shutong, Lin, Hsien-chin, Lubis, Nurul, van Niekerk, Carel, Heck, Michael, Ruppik, Benjamin, Vukovic, Renato, Gašić, Milica
Task-oriented dialogue (ToD) systems are designed to help users achieve specific goals through natural language interaction. While recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly improved linguistic fluency and contextual understanding, building effective and emotionally intelligent ToD systems remains a complex challenge. Effective ToD systems must optimise for task success, emotional understanding and responsiveness, and precise information conveyance, all within inherently noisy and ambiguous conversational environments. In this work, we investigate architectural, representational, optimisational as well as emotional considerations of ToD systems. We set up systems covering these design considerations with a challenging evaluation environment composed of a natural-language user simulator coupled with an imperfect natural language understanding module. We propose \textbf{LUSTER}, an \textbf{L}LM-based \textbf{U}nified \textbf{S}ystem for \textbf{T}ask-oriented dialogue with \textbf{E}nd-to-end \textbf{R}einforcement learning with both short-term (user sentiment) and long-term (task success) rewards. Our findings demonstrate that combining LLM capability with structured reward modelling leads to more resilient and emotionally responsive ToD systems, offering a practical path forward for next-generation conversational agents.
Inherited or produced? Inferring protein production kinetics when protein counts are shaped by a cell's division history
Pessoa, Pedro, Martinez, Juan Andres, Vandenbroucke, Vincent, Delvigne, Frank, Pressé, Steve
Inferring protein production kinetics for dividing cells is complicated due to protein inheritance from the mother cell. For instance, fluorescence measurements -- commonly used to assess gene activation -- may reflect not only newly produced proteins but also those inherited through successive cell divisions. In such cases, observed protein levels in any given cell are shaped by its division history. As a case study, we examine activation of the glc3 gene in yeast involved in glycogen synthesis and expressed under nutrient-limiting conditions. We monitor this activity using snapshot fluorescence measurements via flow cytometry, where GFP expression reflects glc3 promoter activity. A naïve analysis of flow cytometry data ignoring cell division suggests many cells are active with low expression. Explicitly accounting for the (non-Markovian) effects of cell division and protein inheritance makes it impossible to write down a tractable likelihood -- a key ingredient in physics-inspired inference, defining the probability of observing data given a model. The dependence on a cell's division history breaks the assumptions of standard (Markovian) master equations, rendering traditional likelihood-based approaches inapplicable. Instead, we adapt conditional normalizing flows (a class of neural network models designed to learn probability distributions) to approximate otherwise intractable likelihoods from simulated data. In doing so, we find that glc3 is mostly inactive under stress, showing that while cells occasionally activate the gene, expression is brief and transient.
Parsimonious Gaussian mixture models with piecewise-constant eigenvalue profiles
Szwagier, Tom, Mattei, Pierre-Alexandre, Bouveyron, Charles, Pennec, Xavier
Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are ubiquitous in statistical learning, particularly for unsupervised problems. While full GMMs suffer from the overparameterization of their covariance matrices in high-dimensional spaces, spherical GMMs (with isotropic covariance matrices) certainly lack flexibility to fit certain anisotropic distributions. Connecting these two extremes, we introduce a new family of parsimonious GMMs with piecewise-constant covariance eigenvalue profiles. These extend several low-rank models like the celebrated mixtures of probabilistic principal component analyzers (MPPCA), by enabling any possible sequence of eigenvalue multiplicities. If the latter are prespecified, then we can naturally derive an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to learn the mixture parameters. Otherwise, to address the notoriously-challenging issue of jointly learning the mixture parameters and hyperparameters, we propose a componentwise penalized EM algorithm, whose monotonicity is proven. We show the superior likelihood-parsimony tradeoffs achieved by our models on a variety of unsupervised experiments: density fitting, clustering and single-image denoising.