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 Learning Graphical Models


Towards Language-Augmented Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Most prior works on communication in multi-agent reinforcement learning have focused on emergent communication, which often results in inefficient and non-interpretable systems. Inspired by the role of language in natural intelligence, we investigate how grounding agents in a human-defined language can improve the learning and coordination of embodied agents. We propose a framework in which agents are trained not only to act but also to produce and interpret natural language descriptions of their observations. This language-augmented learning serves a dual role: enabling efficient and interpretable communication between agents, and guiding representation learning. We demonstrate that language-augmented agents outperform emergent communication baselines across various tasks. Our analysis reveals that language grounding leads to more informative internal representations, better generalization to new partners, and improved capability for human-agent interaction. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of integrating structured language into multi-agent learning and open avenues for more interpretable and capable multi-agent systems.


A Comprehensive Framework for Uncertainty Quantification of Voxel-wise Supervised Models in IVIM MRI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate estimation of intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) parameters from diffusion-weighted MRI remains challenging due to the ill-posed nature of the inverse problem and high sensitivity to noise, particularly in the perfusion compartment. In this work, we propose a probabilistic deep learning framework based on Deep Ensembles (DE) of Mixture Density Networks (MDNs), enabling estimation of total predictive uncertainty and decomposition into aleatoric (AU) and epistemic (EU) components. The method was benchmarked against non probabilistic neural networks, a Bayesian fitting approach and a probabilistic network with single Gaussian parametrization. Supervised training was performed on synthetic data, and evaluation was conducted on both simulated and an in vivo dataset. The reliability of the quantified uncertainties was assessed using calibration curves, output distribution sharpness, and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). MDNs produced more calibrated and sharper predictive distributions for the diffusion coefficient D and fraction f parameters, although slight overconfidence was observed in pseudo-diffusion coefficient D*. The Robust Coefficient of Variation (RCV) indicated smoother in vivo estimates for D* with MDNs compared to Gaussian model. Despite the training data covering the expected physiological range, elevated EU in vivo suggests a mismatch with real acquisition conditions, highlighting the importance of incorporating EU, which was allowed by DE. Overall, we present a comprehensive framework for IVIM fitting with uncertainty quantification, which enables the identification and interpretation of unreliable estimates. The proposed approach can also be adopted for fitting other physical models through appropriate architectural and simulation adjustments.


Predicting the Lifespan of Industrial Printheads with Survival Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Personal use of this material is permitted. This paper has been published in the 8th IEEE Conference on Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems (ICPS) in Emden, Germany, May 12-15, 2025. Abstract --Accurately predicting the lifespan of critical device components is essential for maintenance planning and production optimization, making it a topic of significant interest in both academia and industry. In this work, we investigate the use of survival analysis for predicting the lifespan of production printheads developed by Canon Production Printing. Specifically, we focus on the application of five techniques to estimate survival probabilities and failure rates: the Kaplan-Meier estimator, Cox proportional hazard model, Weibull accelerated failure time model, random survival forest, and gradient boosting. The resulting estimates are further refined using isotonic regression and subsequently aggregated to determine the expected number of failures. The predictions are then validated against real-world ground truth data across multiple time windows to assess model reliability. Our quantitative evaluation using three performance metrics demonstrates that survival analysis outperforms industry-standard baseline methods for printhead lifespan prediction.


Reinforcement Learning in MDPs with Information-Ordered Policies

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose an epoch-based reinforcement learning algorithm for infinite-horizon average-cost Markov decision processes (MDPs) that leverages a partial order over a policy class. In this structure, $π' \leq π$ if data collected under $π$ can be used to estimate the performance of $π'$, enabling counterfactual inference without additional environment interaction. Leveraging this partial order, we show that our algorithm achieves a regret bound of $O(\sqrt{w \log(|Θ|) T})$, where $w$ is the width of the partial order. Notably, the bound is independent of the state and action space sizes. We illustrate the applicability of these partial orders in many domains in operations research, including inventory control and queuing systems. For each, we apply our framework to that problem, yielding new theoretical guarantees and strong empirical results without imposing extra assumptions such as convexity in the inventory model or specialized arrival-rate structure in the queuing model.


A Relative Ignorability Framework for Decision-Relevant Observability in Control Theory and Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sequential decision-making systems routinely operate with missing or incomplete data. Classical reinforcement learning theory, which is commonly used to solve sequential decision problems, assumes Markovian observability, which may not hold under partial observability. Causal inference paradigms formalise ignorability of missingness. We show these views can be unified and generalized in order to guarantee Q-learning convergence even when the Markov property fails. To do so, we introduce the concept of relative ignorability. Relative ignorability is a graphical-causal criterion which refines the requirements for accurate decision-making based on incomplete data. Theoretical results and simulations both reveal that non-Markovian stochastic processes whose missingness is relatively ignorable with respect to causal estimands can still be optimized using standard Reinforcement Learning algorithms. These results expand the theoretical foundations of safe, data-efficient AI to real-world environments where complete information is unattainable.


Circuit-Aware SAT Solving: Guiding CDCL via Conditional Probabilities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Circuit Satisfiability (CSAT) plays a pivotal role in Electronic Design Automation. The standard workflow for solving CSAT problems converts circuits into Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF) and employs generic SAT solvers powered by Conflict-Driven Clause Learning (CDCL). However, this process inherently discards rich structural and functional information, leading to suboptimal solver performance. To address this limitation, we introduce CASCAD, a novel circuit-aware SAT solving framework that directly leverages circuit-level conditional probabilities computed via Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). By explicitly modeling gate-level conditional probabilities, CASCAD dynamically guides two critical CDCL heuristics -- variable phase selection and clause managementto significantly enhance solver efficiency. Extensive evaluations on challenging real-world Logical Equivalence Checking (LEC) benchmarks demonstrate that CASCAD reduces solving times by up to 10x compared to state-of-the-art CNF-based approaches, achieving an additional 23.5% runtime reduction via our probability-guided clause filtering strategy. Our results underscore the importance of preserving circuit-level structural insights within SAT solvers, providing a robust foundation for future improvements in SAT-solving efficiency and EDA tool design.


Markov Chain Estimation with In-Context Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate the capacity of transformers to learn algorithms involving their context while solely being trained using next token prediction. We set up Markov chains with random transition matrices and we train transformers to predict the next token. Matrices used during training and test are different and we show that there is a threshold in transformer size and in training set size above which the model is able to learn to estimate the transition probabilities from its context instead of memorizing the training patterns. Additionally, we show that more involved encoding of the states enables more robust prediction for Markov chains with structures different than those seen during training.


Reinforcement Learning for Target Zone Blood Glucose Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Managing physiological variables within clinically safe target zones is a central challenge in healthcare, particularly for chronic conditions such as Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM). Reinforcement learning (RL) offers promise for personalising treatment, but struggles with the delayed and heterogeneous effects of interventions. We propose a novel RL framework to study and support decision-making in T1DM technologies, such as automated insulin delivery. Our approach captures the complex temporal dynamics of treatment by unifying two control modalities: \textit{impulse control} for discrete, fast-acting interventions (e.g., insulin boluses), and \textit{switching control} for longer-acting treatments and regime shifts. The core of our method is a constrained Markov decision process augmented with physiological state features, enabling safe policy learning under clinical and resource constraints. The framework incorporates biologically realistic factors, including insulin decay, leading to policies that better reflect real-world therapeutic behaviour. While not intended for clinical deployment, this work establishes a foundation for future safe and temporally-aware RL in healthcare. We provide theoretical guarantees of convergence and demonstrate empirical improvements in a stylised T1DM control task, reducing blood glucose level violations from 22.4\% (state-of-the-art) to as low as 10.8\%.


LLM-Prior: A Framework for Knowledge-Driven Prior Elicitation and Aggregation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The specification of prior distributions is fundamental in Bayesian inference, yet it remains a significant bottleneck. The prior elicitation process is often a manual, subjective, and unscalable task. We propose a novel framework which leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to automate and scale this process. We introduce \texttt{LLMPrior}, a principled operator that translates rich, unstructured contexts such as natural language descriptions, data or figures into valid, tractable probability distributions. We formalize this operator by architecturally coupling an LLM with an explicit, tractable generative model, such as a Gaussian Mixture Model (forming a LLM based Mixture Density Network), ensuring the resulting prior satisfies essential mathematical properties. We further extend this framework to multi-agent systems where Logarithmic Opinion Pooling is employed to aggregate prior distributions induced by decentralized knowledge. We present the federated prior aggregation algorithm, \texttt{Fed-LLMPrior}, for aggregating distributed, context-dependent priors in a manner robust to agent heterogeneity. This work provides the foundation for a new class of tools that can potentially lower the barrier to entry for sophisticated Bayesian modeling.


Likelihood Matching for Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a Likelihood Matching approach for training diffusion models by first establishing an equivalence between the likelihood of the target data distribution and a likelihood along the sample path of the reverse diffusion. To efficiently compute the reverse sample likelihood, a quasi-likelihood is considered to approximate each reverse transition density by a Gaussian distribution with matched conditional mean and covariance, respectively. The score and Hessian functions for the diffusion generation are estimated by maximizing the quasi-likelihood, ensuring a consistent matching of both the first two transitional moments between every two time points. A stochastic sampler is introduced to facilitate computation that leverages on both the estimated score and Hessian information. We establish consistency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, and provide non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for the proposed sampler, quantifying the rates of the approximation errors due to the score and Hessian estimation, dimensionality, and the number of diffusion steps. Empirical and simulation evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed Likelihood Matching and validate the theoretical results.