Goto

Collaborating Authors

 Learning Graphical Models


Early Prediction of In-Hospital ICU Mortality Using Innovative First-Day Data: A Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The intensive care unit (ICU) manages critically ill patients, many of whom face a high risk of mortality. Early and accurate prediction of in-hospital mortality within the first 24 hours of ICU admission is crucial for timely clinical interventions, resource optimization, and improved patient outcomes. Traditional scoring systems, while useful, often have limitations in predictive accuracy and adaptability. Objective: This review aims to systematically evaluate and benchmark innovative methodologies that leverage data available within the first day of ICU admission for predicting in-hospital mortality. We focus on advancements in machine learning, novel biomarker applications, and the integration of diverse data types.


Code Driven Planning with Domain-Adaptive Critic

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been widely adopted as task planners for AI agents in sequential decision-making problems, leveraging their extensive world knowledge. However, the gap between their general knowledge and environment-specific requirements often leads to inaccurate plans. To address this, existing approaches rely on frequent LLM queries to iteratively refine plans based on immediate environmental feedback, which incurs substantial query costs. However, this refinement is typically guided by short-term environmental feedback, limiting LLMs from developing plans aligned with long-term rewards. We propose Code Driven Planning with Domain-Adaptive Critic (CoPiC). Instead of relying on frequent queries, CoPiC employs LLMs to generate a diverse set of high-level planning programs, which iteratively produce and refine candidate plans. A trained domain-adaptive critic then evaluates these candidates and selects the one most aligned with long-term rewards for execution. Using high-level planning programs as planner and domain-adaptive critic as estimator, CoPiC improves planning while significantly reducing query costs. Results in ALFWorld, NetHack, and StarCraft II Unit Building show that CoPiC outperforms advanced LLM-based baselines, AdaPlanner and Reflexion, achieving an average (1) 23.33% improvement in success rate and (2) 91.27% reduction in query costs.


Towards Causal Representation Learning with Observable Sources as Auxiliaries

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal representation learning seeks to recover latent factors that generate observational data through a mixing function. Needing assumptions on latent structures or relationships to achieve identifiability in general, prior works often build upon conditional independence given known auxiliary variables. However, prior frameworks limit the scope of auxiliary variables to be external to the mixing function. Yet, in some cases, system-driving latent factors can be easily observed or extracted from data, possibly facilitating identification. In this paper, we introduce a framework of observable sources being auxiliaries, serving as effective conditioning variables. Our main results show that one can identify entire latent variables up to subspace-wise transformations and permutations using volume-preserving encoders. Moreover, when multiple known auxiliary variables are available, we offer a variable-selection scheme to choose those that maximize recoverability of the latent factors given knowledge of the latent causal graph. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through experiments on synthetic graph and image data, thereby extending the boundaries of current approaches.


Bayesian Calibration and Model Assessment of Cell Migration Dynamics with Surrogate Model Integration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Computational models provide crucial insights into complex biological processes such as cancer evolution, but their mechanistic nature often makes them nonlinear and parameter-rich, complicating calibration. We systematically evaluate parameter probability distributions in cell migration models using Bayesian calibration across four complementary strategies: parametric and surrogate models, each with and without explicit model discrepancy. This approach enables joint analysis of parameter uncertainty, predictive performance, and interpretability. Applied to a real data experiment of glioblastoma progression in microfluidic devices, surrogate models achieve higher computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, whereas parametric models yield more reliable parameter estimates due to their mechanistic grounding. Incorporating model discrepancy exposes structural limitations, clarifying where model refinement is necessary. Together, these comparisons offer practical guidance for calibrating and improving computational models of complex biological systems.


Towards Privacy-Aware Bayesian Networks: A Credal Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bayesian networks (BN) are probabilistic graphical models that enable efficient knowledge representation and inference. These have proven effective across diverse domains, including healthcare, bioinformatics and economics. The structure and parameters of a BN can be obtained by domain experts or directly learned from available data. However, as privacy concerns escalate, it becomes increasingly critical for publicly released models to safeguard sensitive information in training data. Typically, released models do not prioritize privacy by design. In particular, tracing attacks from adversaries can combine the released BN with auxiliary data to determine whether specific individuals belong to the data from which the BN was learned. State-of-the-art protection tecniques involve introducing noise into the learned parameters. While this offers robust protection against tracing attacks, it significantly impacts the model's utility, in terms of both the significance and accuracy of the resulting inferences. Hence, high privacy may be attained at the cost of releasing a possibly ineffective model. This paper introduces credal networks (CN) as a novel solution for balancing the model's privacy and utility. After adapting the notion of tracing attacks, we demonstrate that a CN enables the masking of the learned BN, thereby reducing the probability of successful attacks. As CNs are obfuscated but not noisy versions of BNs, they can achieve meaningful inferences while safeguarding privacy. Moreover, we identify key learning information that must be concealed to prevent attackers from recovering the underlying BN. Finally, we conduct a set of numerical experiments to analyze how privacy gains can be modulated by tuning the CN hyperparameters. Our results confirm that CNs provide a principled, practical, and effective approach towards the development of privacy-aware probabilistic graphical models.


Probabilistic Machine Learning for Uncertainty-Aware Diagnosis of Industrial Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep neural networks has been increasingly applied in fault diagnostics, where it uses historical data to capture systems behavior, bypassing the need for high-fidelity physical models. However, despite their competence in prediction tasks, these models often struggle with the evaluation of their confidence. This matter is particularly important in consistency-based diagnosis where decision logic is highly sensitive to false alarms. To address this challenge, this work presents a diagnostic framework that uses ensemble probabilistic machine learning to improve diagnostic characteristics of data driven consistency based diagnosis by quantifying and automating the prediction uncertainty. The proposed method is evaluated across several case studies using both ablation and comparative analyses, showing consistent improvements across a range of diagnostic metrics.


VGGT-DP: Generalizable Robot Control via Vision Foundation Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Visual imitation learning frameworks allow robots to learn manipulation skills from expert demonstrations. While existing approaches mainly focus on policy design, they often neglect the structure and capacity of visual encoders--limiting spatial understanding and generalization. Inspired by biological vision systems, which rely on both visual and proprioceptive cues for robust control, we propose VGGT-DP, a visuomotor policy framework that integrates geometric priors from a pretrained 3D perception model with proprioceptive feedback. We adopt the Visual Geometry Grounded Transformer (VGGT) as the visual encoder and introduce a proprioception-guided visual learning strategy to align perception with internal robot states, improving spatial grounding and closed-loop control. To reduce inference latency, we design a frame-wise token reuse mechanism that compacts multi-view tokens into an efficient spatial representation. We further apply random token pruning to enhance policy robustness and reduce overfitting. Experiments on challenging MetaWorld tasks show that VGGT -DP significantly outperforms strong baselines such as DP and DP3, particularly in precision-critical and long-horizon scenarios.


LLM-Enhanced Self-Evolving Reinforcement Learning for Multi-Step E-Commerce Payment Fraud Risk Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a novel approach to e-commerce payment fraud detection by integrating reinforcement learning (RL) with Large Language Models (LLMs). By framing transaction risk as a multi-step Markov Decision Process (MDP), RL optimizes risk detection across multiple payment stages. Crafting effective reward functions, essential for RL model success, typically requires significant human expertise due to the complexity and variability in design. LLMs, with their advanced reasoning and coding capabilities, are well-suited to refine these functions, offering improvements over traditional methods. Our approach leverages LLMs to iteratively enhance reward functions, achieving better fraud detection accuracy and demonstrating zero-shot capability. Experiments with real-world data confirm the effectiveness, robustness, and resilience of our LLM-enhanced RL framework through long-term evaluations, underscoring the potential of LLMs in advancing industrial RL applications.


Assistive Decision-Making for Right of Way Navigation at Uncontrolled Intersections

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Uncontrolled intersections account for a significant fraction of roadway crashes due to ambiguous right-of-way rules, occlusions, and unpredictable driver behavior. While autonomous vehicle research has explored uncertainty-aware decision making, few systems exist to retrofit human-operated vehicles with assistive navigation support. We present a driver-assist framework for right-of-way reasoning at uncontrolled intersections, formulated as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). Using a custom simulation testbed with stochastic traffic agents, pedestrians, occlusions, and adversarial scenarios, we evaluate four decision-making approaches: a deterministic finite state machine (FSM), and three probabilistic planners: QMDP, POMCP, and DESPOT. Results show that probabilistic planners outperform the rule-based baseline, achieving up to 97.5 percent collision-free navigation under partial observability, with POMCP prioritizing safety and DESPOT balancing efficiency and runtime feasibility. Our findings highlight the importance of uncertainty-aware planning for driver assistance and motivate future integration of sensor fusion and environment perception modules for real-time deployment in realistic traffic environments.


Graph Enhanced Trajectory Anomaly Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Trajectory anomaly detection is essential for identifying unusual and unexpected movement patterns in applications ranging from intelligent transportation systems to urban safety and fraud prevention. Existing methods only consider limited aspects of the trajectory nature and its movement space by treating trajectories as sequences of sampled locations, with sampling determined by positioning technology, e.g., GPS, or by high-level abstractions such as staypoints. Trajectories are analyzed in Euclidean space, neglecting the constraints and connectivity information of the underlying movement network, e.g., road or transit networks. The proposed Graph Enhanced Trajectory Anomaly Detection (GETAD) framework tightly integrates road network topology, segment semantics, and historical travel patterns to model trajectory data. GETAD uses a Graph Attention Network to learn road-aware embeddings that capture both physical attributes and transition behavior, and augments these with graph-based positional encodings that reflect the spatial layout of the road network. A Transformer-based decoder models sequential movement, while a multiobjective loss function combining autoregressive prediction and supervised link prediction ensures realistic and structurally coherent representations. To improve the robustness of anomaly detection, we introduce Confidence Weighted Negative Log Likelihood (CW NLL), an anomaly scoring function that emphasizes high-confidence deviations. Experiments on real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrate that GETAD achieves consistent improvements over existing methods, particularly in detecting subtle anomalies in road-constrained environments. These results highlight the benefits of incorporating graph structure and contextual semantics into trajectory modeling, enabling more precise and context-aware anomaly detection.