Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-minute resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov \emph{router} learns the patterns of ``which activity comes next." Second, a semi-Markov \emph{hazard} component explicitly models activity durations, capturing ``how long" activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

In recent years, there has been significant interest in designing machine learning algorithms that enable robust and sample-efficient knowledge transfer across tasks to facilitate rapid and accurate estimation and prediction. Traditional machine learning methods have largely followed a single-task or "isolated learning" framework, where each task is learned independently, ignoring knowledge from prior tasks (Upadhyay et al., 2024). However, unlike such isolated approaches, human learning relies on prior experiences to accelerate new learning. Inspired by this, recent prominent "knowledge-transfer" approaches include meta-learning (Finn et al., 2017; Bouchattaoui, 2024), transfer learning (Zhu et al., 2023; Zhuang et al., 2020), multi-task learning (Crawshaw, 2020; Zhang and Yang, 2022), and lifelong learning (Liu, 2017), all of which aim to leverage shared structure across tasks to improve generalization and aim to replicate this human-like knowledge transfer. Meta-learning focuses on learning a learning algorithm that can quickly adapt to new tasks using limited data. Transfer learning reuses knowledge from related source tasks to improve performance on a target task with few labeled examples.

Partial observability presents a significant challenge for Safe Reinforcement Learning (Safe RL), as it impedes the identification of potential risks and rewards. Leveraging specific types of privileged information during training to mitigate the effects of partial observability has yielded notable empirical successes. In this paper, we propose Asymmetric Constrained Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (ACPOMDPs) to theoretically examine the advantages of incorporating privileged information in Safe RL. Building upon ACPOMDPs, we propose the Privileged Information Guided Dreamer (PIGDreamer), a model-based RL approach that leverages privileged information to enhance the agent's safety and performance through privileged representation alignment and an asymmetric actor-critic structure. Our empirical results demonstrate that PIGDreamer significantly outperforms existing Safe RL methods. Furthermore, compared to alternative privileged RL methods, our approach exhibits enhanced performance, robustness, and efficiency. Codes are available at: https://github.com/hggforget/PIGDreamer.

The intensive care unit (ICU) manages critically ill patients, many of whom face a high risk of mortality. Early and accurate prediction of in-hospital mortality within the first 24 hours of ICU admission is crucial for timely clinical interventions, resource optimization, and improved patient outcomes. Traditional scoring systems, while useful, often have limitations in predictive accuracy and adaptability. Objective: This review aims to systematically evaluate and benchmark innovative methodologies that leverage data available within the first day of ICU admission for predicting in-hospital mortality. We focus on advancements in machine learning, novel biomarker applications, and the integration of diverse data types.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been widely adopted as task planners for AI agents in sequential decision-making problems, leveraging their extensive world knowledge. However, the gap between their general knowledge and environment-specific requirements often leads to inaccurate plans. To address this, existing approaches rely on frequent LLM queries to iteratively refine plans based on immediate environmental feedback, which incurs substantial query costs. However, this refinement is typically guided by short-term environmental feedback, limiting LLMs from developing plans aligned with long-term rewards. We propose Code Driven Planning with Domain-Adaptive Critic (CoPiC). Instead of relying on frequent queries, CoPiC employs LLMs to generate a diverse set of high-level planning programs, which iteratively produce and refine candidate plans. A trained domain-adaptive critic then evaluates these candidates and selects the one most aligned with long-term rewards for execution. Using high-level planning programs as planner and domain-adaptive critic as estimator, CoPiC improves planning while significantly reducing query costs. Results in ALFWorld, NetHack, and StarCraft II Unit Building show that CoPiC outperforms advanced LLM-based baselines, AdaPlanner and Reflexion, achieving an average (1) 23.33% improvement in success rate and (2) 91.27% reduction in query costs.

Causal representation learning seeks to recover latent factors that generate observational data through a mixing function. Needing assumptions on latent structures or relationships to achieve identifiability in general, prior works often build upon conditional independence given known auxiliary variables. However, prior frameworks limit the scope of auxiliary variables to be external to the mixing function. Yet, in some cases, system-driving latent factors can be easily observed or extracted from data, possibly facilitating identification. In this paper, we introduce a framework of observable sources being auxiliaries, serving as effective conditioning variables. Our main results show that one can identify entire latent variables up to subspace-wise transformations and permutations using volume-preserving encoders. Moreover, when multiple known auxiliary variables are available, we offer a variable-selection scheme to choose those that maximize recoverability of the latent factors given knowledge of the latent causal graph. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through experiments on synthetic graph and image data, thereby extending the boundaries of current approaches.

Computational models provide crucial insights into complex biological processes such as cancer evolution, but their mechanistic nature often makes them nonlinear and parameter-rich, complicating calibration. We systematically evaluate parameter probability distributions in cell migration models using Bayesian calibration across four complementary strategies: parametric and surrogate models, each with and without explicit model discrepancy. This approach enables joint analysis of parameter uncertainty, predictive performance, and interpretability. Applied to a real data experiment of glioblastoma progression in microfluidic devices, surrogate models achieve higher computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, whereas parametric models yield more reliable parameter estimates due to their mechanistic grounding. Incorporating model discrepancy exposes structural limitations, clarifying where model refinement is necessary. Together, these comparisons offer practical guidance for calibrating and improving computational models of complex biological systems.

Bayesian networks (BN) are probabilistic graphical models that enable efficient knowledge representation and inference. These have proven effective across diverse domains, including healthcare, bioinformatics and economics. The structure and parameters of a BN can be obtained by domain experts or directly learned from available data. However, as privacy concerns escalate, it becomes increasingly critical for publicly released models to safeguard sensitive information in training data. Typically, released models do not prioritize privacy by design. In particular, tracing attacks from adversaries can combine the released BN with auxiliary data to determine whether specific individuals belong to the data from which the BN was learned. State-of-the-art protection tecniques involve introducing noise into the learned parameters. While this offers robust protection against tracing attacks, it significantly impacts the model's utility, in terms of both the significance and accuracy of the resulting inferences. Hence, high privacy may be attained at the cost of releasing a possibly ineffective model. This paper introduces credal networks (CN) as a novel solution for balancing the model's privacy and utility. After adapting the notion of tracing attacks, we demonstrate that a CN enables the masking of the learned BN, thereby reducing the probability of successful attacks. As CNs are obfuscated but not noisy versions of BNs, they can achieve meaningful inferences while safeguarding privacy. Moreover, we identify key learning information that must be concealed to prevent attackers from recovering the underlying BN. Finally, we conduct a set of numerical experiments to analyze how privacy gains can be modulated by tuning the CN hyperparameters. Our results confirm that CNs provide a principled, practical, and effective approach towards the development of privacy-aware probabilistic graphical models.

Deep neural networks has been increasingly applied in fault diagnostics, where it uses historical data to capture systems behavior, bypassing the need for high-fidelity physical models. However, despite their competence in prediction tasks, these models often struggle with the evaluation of their confidence. This matter is particularly important in consistency-based diagnosis where decision logic is highly sensitive to false alarms. To address this challenge, this work presents a diagnostic framework that uses ensemble probabilistic machine learning to improve diagnostic characteristics of data driven consistency based diagnosis by quantifying and automating the prediction uncertainty. The proposed method is evaluated across several case studies using both ablation and comparative analyses, showing consistent improvements across a range of diagnostic metrics.

Visual imitation learning frameworks allow robots to learn manipulation skills from expert demonstrations. While existing approaches mainly focus on policy design, they often neglect the structure and capacity of visual encoders--limiting spatial understanding and generalization. Inspired by biological vision systems, which rely on both visual and proprioceptive cues for robust control, we propose VGGT-DP, a visuomotor policy framework that integrates geometric priors from a pretrained 3D perception model with proprioceptive feedback. We adopt the Visual Geometry Grounded Transformer (VGGT) as the visual encoder and introduce a proprioception-guided visual learning strategy to align perception with internal robot states, improving spatial grounding and closed-loop control. To reduce inference latency, we design a frame-wise token reuse mechanism that compacts multi-view tokens into an efficient spatial representation. We further apply random token pruning to enhance policy robustness and reduce overfitting. Experiments on challenging MetaWorld tasks show that VGGT -DP significantly outperforms strong baselines such as DP and DP3, particularly in precision-critical and long-horizon scenarios.