Ordinal regression (OR, also called ordinal classification) is classification of ordinal data, in which the underlying target variable is categorical and considered to have a natural ordinal relation for the underlying explanatory variable. A key to successful OR models is to find a data structure `natural ordinal relation' common to many ordinal data and reflect that structure into the design of those models. A recent OR study found that many real-world ordinal data show a tendency that the conditional probability distribution (CPD) of the target variable given a value of the explanatory variable will often be unimodal. Several previous studies thus developed unimodal likelihood models, in which a predicted CPD is guaranteed to become unimodal. However, it was also observed experimentally that many real-world ordinal data partly have values of the explanatory variable where the underlying CPD will be non-unimodal, and hence unimodal likelihood models may suffer from a bias for such a CPD. Therefore, motivated to mitigate such a bias, we propose approximately unimodal likelihood models, which can represent up to a unimodal CPD and a CPD that is close to be unimodal. We also verify experimentally that a proposed model can be effective for statistical modeling of ordinal data and OR tasks.

Tensor networks (TNs) enable compact representations of large tensors through shared parameters. Their use in probabilistic modeling is particularly appealing, as probabilistic tensor networks (PTNs) allow for tractable computation of marginals. However, existing approaches for learning parameters of PTNs are either computationally demanding and not fully compatible with automatic differentiation frameworks, or numerically unstable. In this work, we propose a conceptually simple approach for learning PTNs efficiently, that is numerically stable. We show our method provides significant improvements in time and space complexity, achieving 10x reduction in latency for generative modeling on the MNIST dataset. Furthermore, our approach enables learning of distributions with 10x more variables than previous approaches when applied to a variety of density estimation benchmarks. Our code is publicly available at github.com/marawangamal/ptn.

Many Bayesian network modelling applications suffer from the issue of data scarcity. Hence the use of expert judgement often becomes necessary to determine the parameters of the conditional probability tables (CPTs) throughout the network. There are usually a prohibitively large number of these parameters to determine, even when complementing any available data with expert judgements. To address this challenge, a number of CPT approximation methods have been developed that reduce the quantity and complexity of parameters needing to be determined to fully parameterise a Bayesian network. This paper provides a review of a variety of structural refinement methods that can be used in practice to efficiently approximate a CPT within a Bayesian network. We not only introduce and discuss the intrinsic properties and requirements of each method, but we evaluate each method through a worked example on a Bayesian network model of cardiovascular risk assessment. We conclude with practical guidance to help Bayesian network practitioners choose an alternative approach when direct parameterisation of a CPT is infeasible.

The exponential growth of internet generated data has fueled advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) for extracting actionable insights in marketing,telecom, and health sectors. This chapter explores ML applications across three domains namely healthcare, marketing, and telecommunications, with a primary focus on developing a framework for optimal ML algorithm selection. In healthcare, the framework addresses critical challenges such as cardiovascular disease prediction accounting for 28.1% of global deaths and fetal health classification into healthy or unhealthy states, utilizing three datasets. ML algorithms are categorized into eager, lazy, and hybrid learners, selected based on dataset attributes, performance metrics (accuracy, precision, recall), and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) scores. For validation, eight datasets from the three sectors are employed in the experiments. The key contribution is a recommendation framework that identifies the best ML model according to input attributes, balancing performance evaluation and model complexity to enhance efficiency and accuracy in diverse real-world applications. This approach bridges gaps in automated model selection, offering practical implications for interdisciplinary ML deployment.

The wide adoption of AI decision-making systems in critical domains such as criminal justice, loan approval, and hiring processes has heightened concerns about algorithmic fairness. As we often only have access to the output of algorithms without insights into their internal mechanisms, it was natural to examine how decisions would alter when auxiliary sensitive attributes (such as race) change. This led the research community to come up with counterfactual fairness measures, but how to evaluate the measure from available data remains a challenging task. In many practical applications, the target counterfactual measure is not identifiable, i.e., it cannot be uniquely determined from the combination of quantitative data and qualitative knowledge. This paper addresses this challenge using partial identification, which derives informative bounds over counterfactual fairness measures from observational data. We introduce a Bayesian approach to bound unknown counterfactual fairness measures with high confidence. We demonstrate our algorithm on the COMPAS dataset, examining fairness in recidivism risk scores with respect to race, age, and sex. Our results reveal a positive (spurious) effect on the COMPAS score when changing race to African-American (from all others) and a negative (direct causal) effect when transitioning from young to old age.

Detecting anomalies in irregularly sampled multi-variate time-series is challenging, especially in data-scarce settings. Here we introduce an anomaly detection framework for irregularly sampled time-series that leverages neural jump ordinary differential equations (NJODEs). The method infers conditional mean and variance trajectories in a fully path dependent way and computes anomaly scores. On synthetic data containing jump, drift, diffusion, and noise anomalies, the framework accurately identifies diverse deviations. Applied to infant gut microbiome trajectories, it delineates the magnitude and persistence of antibiotic-induced disruptions: revealing prolonged anomalies after second antibiotic courses, extended duration treatments, and exposures during the second year of life. We further demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the inferred anomaly scores in accurately predicting antibiotic events and outperforming diversity-based baselines. Our approach accommodates unevenly spaced longitudinal observations, adjusts for static and dynamic covariates, and provides a foundation for inferring microbial anomalies induced by perturbations, offering a translational opportunity to optimize intervention regimens by minimizing microbial disruptions.

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a major cause of visual impairment, and effective treatment options depend heavily on timely and accurate diagnosis. Deep learning models have demonstrated great success identifying DR from retinal images. However, relying only on predictions made by models, without any indication of model confidence, creates uncertainty and poses significant risk in clinical settings. This paper investigates an alternative in uncertainty-aware deep learning models, including a rejection mechanism to reject low-confidence predictions, contextualized by deferred decision-making in clinical practice. The results show there is a trade-off between prediction coverage and coverage reliability. The Variational Bayesian model adopted a more conservative strategy when predicting DR, subsequently rejecting the uncertain predictions. The model is evaluated by means of important performance metrics such as Accuracy on accepted predictions, the proportion of accepted cases (coverage), the rejection-ratio, and Expected Calibration Error (ECE). The findings also demonstrate a clear trade-off between accuracy and caution, establishing that the use of uncertainty estimation and selective rejection improves the model's reliability in safety-critical diagnostic use cases.

Reinforcement learning (RL) struggles to scale to large, combinatorial action spaces common in many real-world problems. This paper introduces a novel framework for training discrete diffusion models as highly effective policies in these complex settings. Our key innovation is an efficient online training process that ensures stable and effective policy improvement. By leveraging policy mirror descent (PMD) to define an ideal, regularized target policy distribution, we frame the policy update as a distributional matching problem, training the expressive diffusion model to replicate this stable target. This decoupled approach stabilizes learning and significantly enhances training performance. Our method achieves state-of-the-art results and superior sample efficiency across a diverse set of challenging combinatorial benchmarks, including DNA sequence generation, RL with macro-actions, and multi-agent systems. Experiments demonstrate that our diffusion policies attain superior performance compared to other baselines.

Motivated by many application problems, we consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a general loss function and unknown parameters. To mitigate the epistemic uncertainty associated with unknown parameters, we take a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters from data and impose a coherent risk functional (with respect to the Bayesian posterior distribution) on the loss. Since this formulation usually does not satisfy the interchangeability principle, it does not admit Bellman equations and cannot be solved by approaches based on dynamic programming. Therefore, We propose a policy gradient optimization method, leveraging the dual representation of coherent risk measures and extending the envelope theorem to continuous cases. We then show the stationary analysis of the algorithm with a convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(T^{-1/2}+r^{-1/2})$, where $T$ is the number of policy gradient iterations and $r$ is the sample size of the gradient estimator. We further extend our algorithm to an episodic setting, and establish the global convergence of the extended algorithm and provide bounds on the number of iterations needed to achieve an error bound $\mathcal{O}(ε)$ in each episode.

Vision-driven autonomous river following by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles is critical for applications such as rescue, surveillance, and environmental monitoring, particularly in dense riverine environments where GPS signals are unreliable. These safety-critical navigation tasks must satisfy hard safety constraints while optimizing performance. Moreover, the reward in river following is inherently history-dependent (non-Markovian) by which river segment has already been visited, making it challenging for standard safe Reinforcement Learning (SafeRL). To address these gaps, we propose three contributions. First, we introduce Marginal Gain Advantage Estimation, which refines the reward advantage function by using a sliding window baseline computed from historical episodic returns, aligning the advantage estimate with non-Markovian dynamics. Second, we develop a Semantic Dynamics Model based on patchified water semantic masks offering more interpretable and data-efficient short-term prediction of future observations compared to latent vision dynamics models. Third, we present the Constrained Actor Dynamics Estimator architecture, which integrates the actor, cost estimator, and SDM for cost advantage estimation to form a model-based SafeRL framework. Simulation results demonstrate that MGAE achieves faster convergence and superior performance over traditional critic-based methods like Generalized Advantage Estimation. SDM provides more accurate short-term state predictions that enable the cost estimator to better predict potential violations. Overall, CADE effectively integrates safety regulation into model-based RL, with the Lagrangian approach providing a "soft" balance between reward and safety during training, while the safety layer enhances inference by imposing a "hard" action overlay.