Forexample, in medical diagnosis, the presence of a symptom can be expressed as a noisy-OR of the diseases that may cause the symptom - on some occasions, a disease may fail to activate the symptom. Inference in richly-connected noisy-OR networks is intractable, butapproximate methods (e .g., variational techniques) are showing increasing promise as practical solutions. One problem withmost approximations is that they tend to concentrate on a relatively small number of modes in the true posterior, ignoring otherplausible configurations of the hidden variables. We introduce a new sequential variational method for bipartite noisy OR networks, that favors including all modes of the true posterior and models the posterior distribution as a tree. We compare this method with other approximations using an ensemble of networks with network statistics that are comparable to the QMR-DT medical diagnosticnetwork. 1 Inclusive variational approximations Approximate algorithms for probabilistic inference are gaining in popularity and are now even being incorporated into VLSI hardware (T.

A serious problem in learning probabilistic models is the presence of hidden variables.These variables are not observed, yet interact with several of the observed variables. As such, they induce seemingly complex dependencies amongthe latter. In recent years, much attention has been devoted to the development of algorithms for learning parameters, and in some cases structure, in the presence of hidden variables. In this paper, weaddress the related problem of detecting hidden variables that interact with the observed variables. This problem is of interest both for improving our understanding of the domain and as a preliminary step that guides the learning procedure towards promising models.

Recent work has exploited boundedness of data in the unsupervised learning of new types of generative model. For nonnegative data it was recently shown that the maximum-entropy generative model is a Nonnegative BoltzmannDistribution not a Gaussian distribution, when the model is constrained to match the first and second order statistics of the data. Learning for practical sized problems is made difficult by the need to compute expectations under the model distribution. The computational costof Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and low fidelity of naive mean field techniques has led to increasing interest in advanced mean field theories and variational methods. Here I present a secondorder mean-fieldapproximation for the Nonnegative Boltzmann Machine model, obtained using a "high-temperature" expansion. The theory is tested on learning a bimodal 2-dimensional model, a high-dimensional translationally invariant distribution, and a generative model for handwritten digits.

In this paper we will discuss a variational mean-field theory and its application to BNs, sigmoidal BNs in particular. We present a variational derivation of the mean-field theory, proposed by Plefka[2].

The Bayesian paradigm apparently only sometimes gives rise to Occam's Razor; at other times very large models perform well. We give simple examples of both kinds of behaviour. The two views are reconciled when measuring complexity of functions, rather than of the machinery used to implement them. We analyze the complexity of functions for some linear in the parameter models that are equivalent to Gaussian Processes, and always find Occam's Razor at work. 1 Introduction Occam's Razor is a well known principle of "parsimony of explanations" which is influential inscientific thinking in general and in problems of statistical inference in particular. In this paper we review its consequences for Bayesian statistical models, where its behaviour can be easily demonstrated and quantified.

Learning of a smooth but nonparametric probability density can be regularized usingmethods of Quantum Field Theory. We implement a field theoretic prior numerically, test its efficacy, and show that the free parameter ofthe theory (,smoothness scale') can be determined self consistently bythe data; this forms an infinite dimensional generalization of the MDL principle. Finally, we study the implications of one's choice of the prior and the parameterization and conclude that the smoothness scale determination makes density estimation very weakly sensitive to the choice of the prior, and that even wrong choices can be advantageous for small data sets. One of the central problems in learning is to balance'goodness of fit' criteria against the complexity of models. An important development in the Bayesian approach was thus the realization that there does not need to be any extra penalty for model complexity: if we compute the total probability that data are generated by a model, there is a factor from the volume in parameter space-the'Occam factor' -that discriminates against models with more parameters [1, 2].

Jensen's inequality is a powerful mathematical tool and one of the workhorses in statistical learning. Its applications therein include the EM algorithm, Bayesian estimation and Bayesian inference. Jensen computes simplelower bounds on otherwise intractable quantities such as products of sums and latent log-likelihoods. This simplification then permits operationslike integration and maximization. Quite often (i.e. in discriminative learning) upper bounds are needed as well. We derive and prove an efficient analytic inequality that provides such variational upper bounds. This inequality holds for latent variable mixtures of exponential family distributions and thus spans a wide range of contemporary statistical models.We also discuss applications of the upper bounds including maximum conditional likelihood, large margin discriminative models and conditional Bayesian inference. Convergence, efficiency and prediction results are shown.

We use graphical models to explore the question of how people learn simple causalrelationships from data. The two leading psychological theories canboth be seen as estimating the parameters of a fixed graph. We argue that a complete account of causal induction should also consider how people learn the underlying causal graph structure, and we propose to model this inductive process as a Bayesian inference. Our argument is supported through the discussion of three data sets. 1 Introduction Causality plays a central role in human mental life. Our behavior depends upon our understanding ofthe causal structure of our environment, and we are remarkably good at inferring causation from mere observation. Constructing formal models of causal induction is currently a major focus of attention in computer science [7], psychology [3,6], and philosophy [5].This paper attempts to connect these literatures, by framing the debate between two major psychological theories in the computational language of graphical models. We show that existing theories equate human causal induction with maximum likelihood parameter estimationon a fixed graphical structure, and we argue that to fully account for human behavioral data, we must also postulate that people make Bayesian inferences about the underlying causal graph structure itself.

How should we decide among competing explanations of a cognitive process given limited observations? The problem of model selection is at the heart of progress in cognitive science. In this paper, Minimum Description Length (MDL) is introduced as a method for selecting among computational models of cognition. We also show that differential geometry provides an intuitive understanding of what drives model selection in MDL. Finally, adequacy of MDL is demonstrated in two areas of cognitive modeling.

In this article, I describe agent-centered search (also called real-time search or local search) and illustrate this planning paradigm with examples. Agent-centered search methods interleave planning and plan execution and restrict planning to the part of the domain around the current state of the agent, for example, the current location of a mobile robot or the current board position of a game. These methods can execute actions in the presence of time constraints and often have a small sum of planning and execution cost, both because they trade off planning and execution cost and because they allow agents to gather information early in nondeterministic domains, which reduces the amount of planning they have to perform for unencountered situations. These advantages become important as more intelligent systems are interfaced with the world and have to operate autonomously in complex environments. Agent-centered search methods have been applied to a variety of domains, including traditional search, strips-type planning, moving-target search, planning with totally and partially observable Markov decision process models, reinforcement learning, constraint satisfaction, and robot navigation. I discuss the design and properties of several agent-centered search methods, focusing on robot exploration and localization.