The Bayesian framework is a well-studied and successful framework for inductive reasoning, which includes hypothesis testing and confirmation, parameter estimation, sequence prediction, classification, and regression. But standard statistical guidelines for choosing the model class and prior are not always available or fail, in particular in complex situations. Solomonoff completed the Bayesian framework by providing a rigorous, unique, formal, and universal choice for the model class and the prior. We discuss in breadth how and in which sense universal (non-i.i.d.) sequence prediction solves various (philosophical) problems of traditional Bayesian sequence prediction. We show that Solomonoff's model possesses many desirable properties: Strong total and weak instantaneous bounds, and in contrast to most classical continuous prior densities has no zero p(oste)rior problem, i.e. can confirm universal hypotheses, is reparametrization and regrouping invariant, and avoids the old-evidence and updating problem. It even performs well (actually better) in non-computable environments.

This paper presents a multi-sensor fusion strategy for a novel road-matching method designed to support real-time navigational features within advanced driving-assistance systems. Managing multihypotheses is a useful strategy for the road-matching problem. The multi-sensor fusion and multi-modal estimation are realized using Dynamical Bayesian Network. Experimental results, using data from Antilock Braking System (ABS) sensors, a differential Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver and an accurate digital roadmap, illustrate the performances of this approach, especially in ambiguous situations.

This paper proposes a neuro-rough model based on multi-layered perceptron and rough set. The neuro-rough model is then tested on modelling the risk of HIV from demographic data. The model is formulated using Bayesian framework and trained using Monte Carlo method and Metropolis criterion. When the model was tested to estimate the risk of HIV infection given the demographic data it was found to give the accuracy of 62%. The proposed model is able to combine the accuracy of the Bayesian MLP model and the transparency of Bayesian rough set model.

Numerous formalisms and dedicated algorithms have been designed in the last decades to model and solve decision making problems. Some formalisms, such as constraint networks, can express "simple" decision problems, while others are designed to take into account uncertainties, unfeasible decisions, and utilities. Even in a single formalism, several variants are often proposed to model different types of uncertainty (probability, possibility...) or utility (additive or not). In this article, we introduce an algebraic graphical model that encompasses a large number of such formalisms: (1) we first adapt previous structures from Friedman, Chu and Halpern for representing uncertainty, utility, and expected utility in order to deal with generic forms of sequential decision making; (2) on these structures, we then introduce composite graphical models that express information via variables linked by "local" functions, thanks to conditional independence; (3) on these graphical models, we finally define a simple class of queries which can represent various scenarios in terms of observabilities and controllabilities. A natural decision-tree semantics for such queries is completed by an equivalent operational semantics, which induces generic algorithms. The proposed framework, called the Plausibility-Feasibility-Utility (PFU) framework, not only provides a better understanding of the links between existing formalisms, but it also covers yet unpublished frameworks (such as possibilistic influence diagrams) and unifies formalisms such as quantified boolean formulas and influence diagrams. Our backtrack and variable elimination generic algorithms are a first step towards unified algorithms.

We present and analyse three online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and compare them with the Baldi-Chauvin Algorithm. Using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a measure of generalisation error we draw learning curves in simplified situations. The performance for learning drifting concepts of one of the presented algorithms is analysed and compared with the Baldi-Chauvin algorithm in the same situations. A brief discussion about learning and symmetry breaking based on our results is also presented.

This dissertation presents several new methods of supervised and unsupervised learning of word sense disambiguation models. The supervised methods focus on performing model searches through a space of probabilistic models, and the unsupervised methods rely on the use of Gibbs Sampling and the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. In both the supervised and unsupervised case, the Naive Bayesian model is found to perform well. An explanation for this success is presented in terms of learning rates and bias-variance decompositions.

In this article, we work towards the goal of developing agents that can learn to act in complex worlds. We develop a probabilistic, relational planning rule representation that compactly models noisy, nondeterministic action effects, and show how such rules can be effectively learned. Through experiments in simple planning domains and a 3D simulated blocks world with realistic physics, we demonstrate that this learning algorithm allows agents to effectively model world dynamics.

We consider the problem of finding an n-agent joint-policy for the optimal finite-horizon control of a decentralized Pomdp (Dec-Pomdp). This is a problem of very high complexity (NEXP-hard in n >= 2). In this paper, we propose a new mathematical programming approach for the problem. Our approach is based on two ideas: First, we represent each agent's policy in the sequence-form and not in the tree-form, thereby obtaining a very compact representation of the set of joint-policies. Second, using this compact representation, we solve this problem as an instance of combinatorial optimization for which we formulate a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The optimal solution of the MILP directly yields an optimal joint-policy for the Dec-Pomdp. Computational experience shows that formulating and solving the MILP requires significantly less time to solve benchmark Dec-Pomdp problems than existing algorithms. For example, the multi-agent tiger problem for horizon 4 is solved in 72 secs with the MILP whereas existing algorithms require several hours to solve it.

We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a Gaussian or binary distribution in such a way that the resulting undirected graphical model is sparse. Our approach is to solve a maximum likelihood problem with an added l_1-norm penalty term. The problem as formulated is convex but the memory requirements and complexity of existing interior point methods are prohibitive for problems with more than tens of nodes. We present two new algorithms for solving problems with at least a thousand nodes in the Gaussian case. Our first algorithm uses block coordinate descent, and can be interpreted as recursive l_1-norm penalized regression. Our second algorithm, based on Nesterov's first order method, yields a complexity estimate with a better dependence on problem size than existing interior point methods. Using a log determinant relaxation of the log partition function (Wainwright & Jordan (2006)), we show that these same algorithms can be used to solve an approximate sparse maximum likelihood problem for the binary case. We test our algorithms on synthetic data, as well as on gene expression and senate voting records data.

We consider the problem of computing a lightest derivation of a global structure using a set of weighted rules. A large variety of inference problems in AI can be formulated in this framework. We generalize A* search and heuristics derived from abstractions to a broad class of lightest derivation problems. We also describe a new algorithm that searches for lightest derivations using a hierarchy of abstractions. Our generalization of A* gives a new algorithm for searching AND/OR graphs in a bottom-up fashion. We discuss how the algorithms described here provide a general architecture for addressing the pipeline problem --- the problem of passing information back and forth between various stages of processing in a perceptual system. We consider examples in computer vision and natural language processing. We apply the hierarchical search algorithm to the problem of estimating the boundaries of convex objects in grayscale images and compare it to other search methods. A second set of experiments demonstrate the use of a new compositional model for finding salient curves in images.