Clustering is often formulated as the maximum likelihood estimation of a mixture model that explains the data. The EM algorithm widely used to solve the resulting optimization problem is inherently a gradient-descent method and is sensitive to initialization. The resulting solution is a local optimum in the neighborhood of the initial guess. This sensitivity to initialization presents a significant challenge in clustering large data sets into many clusters. In this paper, we present a different approach to approximate mixture fitting for clustering. We introduce an exemplar-based likelihood function that approximates the exact likelihood. This formulation leads to a convex minimization problem and an efficient algorithm with guaranteed convergence to the globally optimal solution. The resulting clustering can be thought of as a probabilistic mapping of the data points to the set of exemplars that minimizes the average distance and the information-theoretic cost of mapping.

A wide variety of Dirichlet-multinomial'topic' models have found interesting applications in recent years. While Gibbs sampling remains an important method of inference in such models, variational techniques have certain advantages such as easy assessment of convergence, easy optimization without the need to maintain detailed balance, a bound on the marginal likelihood, and sidestepping of issues with topic-identifiability. The most accurate variational technique thus far, namely collapsed variational latent Dirichlet allocation, did not deal with model selection nor did it include inference for hyperparameters. We address both issues by generalizing the technique, obtaining the first variational algorithm to deal with the hierarchical Dirichlet process and to deal with hyperparameters of Dirichlet variables. Experiments show a significant improvement in accuracy.

We introduce a new Bayesian model for hierarchical clustering based on a prior over trees called Kingman's coalescent. We develop novel greedy and sequential Monte Carlo inferences which operate in a bottom-up agglomerative fashion. We show experimentally the superiority of our algorithms over the state-of-the-art, and demonstrate our approach in document clustering and phylolinguistics.

The present work aims to model the correspondence between facial motion and speech. The face and sound are modelled separately, with phonemes being the link between both. We propose a sequential model and evaluate its suitability for the generation of the facial animation from a sequence of phonemes, which we obtain from speech. We evaluate the results both by computing the error between generated sequences and real video, as well as with a rigorous double-blind test with human subjects. Experiments show that our model compares favourably to other existing methods and that the sequences generated are comparable to real video sequences.

Dynamic Bayesian networks are structured representations of stochastic processes. Despite their structure, exact inference in DBNs is generally intractable. One approach to approximate inference involves grouping the variables in the process into smaller factors and keeping independent beliefs over these factors. In this paper we present several techniques for decomposing a dynamic Bayesian network automatically to enable factored inference. We examine a number of features of a DBN that capture different types of dependencies that will cause error in factored inference. An empirical comparison shows that the most useful of these is a heuristic that estimates the mutual information introduced between factors by one step of belief propagation.

When predicting class labels for objects within a relational database, it is often helpful to consider a model for relationships: this allows for information between class labels to be shared and to improve prediction performance. However, there are different ways by which objects can be related within a relational database. One traditional way corresponds to a Markov network structure: each existing relation is represented by an undirected edge. This encodes that, conditioned on input features, each object label is independent of other object labels given its neighbors in the graph. However, there is no reason why Markov networks should be the only representation of choice for symmetric dependence structures. Here we discuss the case when relationships are postulated to exist due to hidden common causes. We discuss how the resulting graphical model differs from Markov networks, and how it describes different types of real-world relational processes. A Bayesian nonparametric classification model is built upon this graphical representation and evaluated with several empirical studies.

A method is proposed for semiparametric estimation where parametric and nonparametric criteria are exploited in density estimation and unsupervised learning. This is accomplished by making sampling assumptions on a dataset that smoothly interpolate between the extreme of independently distributed (or id) sample data (as in nonparametric kernel density estimators) to the extreme of independent identically distributed (or iid) sample data. This article makes independent similarly distributed (or isd) sampling assumptions and interpolates between these two using a scalar parameter. The parameter controls a Bhattacharyya affinity penalty between pairs of distributions on samples. Surprisingly, the isd method maintains certain consistency and unimodality properties akin to maximum likelihood estimation. The proposed isd scheme is an alternative for handling nonstationarity in data without making drastic hidden variable assumptions which often make estimation difficult and laden with local optima. Experiments in density estimation on a variety of datasets confirm the value of isd over iid estimation, id estimation and mixture modeling.

Bayesian models of multisensory perception traditionally address the problem of estimating an underlying variable that is assumed to be the cause of the two sensory signals. The brain, however, has to solve a more general problem: it also has to establish which signals come from the same source and should be integrated, and which ones do not and should be segregated. In the last couple of years, a few models have been proposed to solve this problem in a Bayesian fashion. One of these has the strength that it formalizes the causal structure of sensory signals. We first compare these models on a formal level. Furthermore, we conduct a psychophysics experiment to test human performance in an auditory-visual spatial localization task in which integration is not mandatory. We find that the causal Bayesian inference model accounts for the data better than other models.

Learning the common structure shared by a set of supervised tasks is an important practical and theoretical problem. Knowledge of this structure may lead to better generalization performance on the tasks and may also facilitate learning new tasks. We propose a framework for solving this problem, which is based on regularization with spectral functions of matrices. This class of regularization problems exhibits appealing computational properties and can be optimized efficiently by an alternating minimization algorithm. In addition, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for convexity of the regularizer.

In order to represent state in controlled, partially observable, stochastic dynamical systems, some sort of sufficient statistic for history is necessary. Predictive representations of state (PSRs) capture state as statistics of the future. We introduce a new model of such systems called the "Exponential family PSR," which defines as state the time-varying parameters of an exponential family distribution which models n sequential observations in the future. This choice of state representation explicitly connects PSRs to state-of-the-art probabilistic modeling, which allows us to take advantage of current efforts in high-dimensional density estimation, and in particular, graphical models and maximum entropy models. We present a parameter learning algorithm based on maximum likelihood, and we show how a variety of current approximate inference methods apply. We evaluate the quality of our model with reinforcement learning by directly evaluating the control performance of the model.