Dynamic Bayesian networks are structured representations of stochastic processes. Despite their structure, exact inference in DBNs is generally intractable. One approach to approximate inference involves grouping the variables in the process into smaller factors and keeping independent beliefs over these factors. In this paper we present several techniques for decomposing a dynamic Bayesian network automatically to enable factored inference. We examine a number of features of a DBN that capture different types of dependencies that will cause error in factored inference. An empirical comparison shows that the most useful of these is a heuristic that estimates the mutual information introduced between factors by one step of belief propagation.

For infants, early word learning is a chicken-and-egg problem. One way to learn a word is to observe that it cooccurs with a particular referent across different situations. Another way is to use the social context of an utterance to infer the intended referent of a word. Here we present a Bayesian model of cross-situational word learning, and an extension of this model that also learns which social cues are relevant to determining reference. We test our model on a small corpus of mother-infant interaction and find it performs better than competing models. Finally, we show that our model accounts for experimental phenomena including mutual exclusivity, fast-mapping, and generalization from social cues.

Bayesian model averaging, model selection and their approximations such as BIC are generally statistically consistent, but sometimes achieve slower rates of convergence than other methods such as AIC and leave-one-out cross-validation. On the other hand, these other methods can be inconsistent. We identify the catchup phenomenon as a novel explanation for the slow convergence of Bayesian methods. Based on this analysis we define the switch-distribution, a modification of the Bayesian model averaging distribution. We prove that in many situations model selection and prediction based on the switch-distribution is both consistent and achieves optimal convergence rates, thereby resolving the AIC-BIC dilemma. The method is practical; we give an efficient algorithm.

The present work aims to model the correspondence between facial motion and speech. The face and sound are modelled separately, with phonemes being the link between both. We propose a sequential model and evaluate its suitability for the generation of the facial animation from a sequence of phonemes, which we obtain from speech. We evaluate the results both by computing the error between generated sequences and real video, as well as with a rigorous double-blind test with human subjects. Experiments show that our model compares favourably to other existing methods and that the sequences generated are comparable to real video sequences.

Although theorists have interpreted classical conditioning as a laboratory model of Bayesian belief updating, a recent reanalysis showed that the key features that theoretical models capture about learning are artifacts of averaging over subjects. Rather than learning smoothly to asymptote (reflecting, according to Bayesian models, the gradual tradeoff from prior to posterior as data accumulate), subjects learn suddenly and their predictions fluctuate perpetually. We suggest that abrupt and unstable learning can be modeled by assuming subjects are conducting inference using sequential Monte Carlo sampling with a small number of samples -- one, in our simulations. Ensemble behavior resembles exact Bayesian models since, as in particle filters, it averages over many samples. Further, the model is capable of exhibiting sophisticated behaviors like retrospective revaluation at the ensemble level, even given minimally sophisticated individuals that do not track uncertainty in their beliefs over trials.

Content-based image suggestion (CBIS) targets the recommendation of products based on user preferences on the visual content of images. In this paper, we motivate both feature selection and model order identification as two key issues for a successful CBIS. We propose a generative model in which the visual features and users are clustered into separate classes. We identify the number of both user and image classes with the simultaneous selection of relevant visual features using the message length approach. The goal is to ensure an accurate prediction of ratings for multidimensional non-Gaussian and continuous image descriptors. Experiments on a collected data have demonstrated the merits of our approach.

It is becoming increasingly evident that organisms acting in uncertain dynamical environments often employ exact or approximate Bayesian statistical calculations in order to continuously estimate the environmental state, integrate information from multiple sensory modalities, form predictions and choose actions. What is less clear is how these putative computations are implemented by cortical neural networks. An additional level of complexity is introduced because these networks observe the world through spike trains received from primary sensory afferents, rather than directly. A recent line of research has described mechanisms by which such computations can be implemented using a network of neurons whose activity directly represents a probability distribution across the possible "world states". Much of this work, however, uses various approximations, which severely restrict the domain of applicability of these implementations. Here we make use of rigorous mathematical results from the theory of continuous time point process filtering, and show how optimal real-time state estimation and prediction may be implemented in a general setting using linear neural networks. We demonstrate the applicability of the approach with several examples, and relate the required network properties to the statistical nature of the environment, thereby quantifying the compatibility of a given network with its environment.

Bayesian models of multisensory perception traditionally address the problem of estimating an underlying variable that is assumed to be the cause of the two sensory signals. The brain, however, has to solve a more general problem: it also has to establish which signals come from the same source and should be integrated, and which ones do not and should be segregated. In the last couple of years, a few models have been proposed to solve this problem in a Bayesian fashion. One of these has the strength that it formalizes the causal structure of sensory signals. We first compare these models on a formal level. Furthermore, we conduct a psychophysics experiment to test human performance in an auditory-visual spatial localization task in which integration is not mandatory. We find that the causal Bayesian inference model accounts for the data better than other models.

This paper studies boosting algorithms that make a single pass over a set of base classifiers. We first analyze a one-pass algorithm in the setting of boosting with diverse base classifiers. Our guarantee is the same as the best proved for any boosting algorithm, but our one-pass algorithm is much faster than previous approaches. We next exhibit a random source of examples for which a "picky" variant of AdaBoost that skips poor base classifiers can outperform the standard AdaBoost algorithm, which uses every base classifier, by an exponential factor. Experiments with Reuters and synthetic data show that one-pass boosting can substantially improve on the accuracy of Naive Bayes, and that picky boosting can sometimes lead to a further improvement in accuracy.

Learning the common structure shared by a set of supervised tasks is an important practical and theoretical problem. Knowledge of this structure may lead to better generalization performance on the tasks and may also facilitate learning new tasks. We propose a framework for solving this problem, which is based on regularization with spectral functions of matrices. This class of regularization problems exhibits appealing computational properties and can be optimized efficiently by an alternating minimization algorithm. In addition, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for convexity of the regularizer.