We present a method for approximate inference for a broad class of non-conjugate probabilistic models. In particular, for the family of generalized linear model target densities we describe a rich class of variational approximating densities which can be best fit to the target by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Our approach is based on using the Fourier representation which we show results in efficient and scalable inference.

Topic modeling is a generalization of clustering that posits that observations (words in a document) are generated by \emph{multiple} latent factors (topics), as opposed to just one. This increased representational power comes at the cost of a more challenging unsupervised learning problem of estimating the topic-word distributions when only words are observed, and the topics are hidden. This work provides a simple and efficient learning procedure that is guaranteed to recover the parameters for a wide class of topic models, including Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). For LDA, the procedure correctly recovers both the topic-word distributions and the parameters of the Dirichlet prior over the topic mixtures, using only trigram statistics (\emph{i.e.}, third order moments, which may be estimated with documents containing just three words). The method, called Excess Correlation Analysis, is based on a spectral decomposition of low-order moments via two singular value decompositions (SVDs). Moreover, the algorithm is scalable, since the SVDs are carried out only on $k \times k$ matrices, where $k$ is the number of latent factors (topics) and is typically much smaller than the dimension of the observation (word) space.

Sum-product networks are a new deep architecture that can perform fast, exact inference onhigh-treewidth models. Only generative methods for training SPNs have been proposed to date. In this paper, we present the first discriminative training algorithms for SPNs, combining the high accuracy of the former with the representational power and tractability of the latter. We show that the class of tractable discriminative SPNs is broader than the class of tractable generative ones, and propose an efficient backpropagation-style algorithm for computing the gradient of the conditional log likelihood. Standard gradient descent suffers from the diffusion problem, but networks with many layers can be learned reliably using "hard"gradient descent, where marginal inference is replaced by MPE inference (i.e.,inferring the most probable state of the non-evidence variables). The resulting updates have a simple and intuitive form. We test discriminative SPNs on standard image classification tasks. We obtain the best results to date on the CIFAR-10 dataset, using fewer features than prior methods with an SPN architecture thatlearns local image structure discriminatively. We also report the highest published test accuracy on STL-10 even though we only use the labeled portion of the dataset.

Continuous relaxations play an important role in discrete optimization, but have not seen much use in approximate probabilistic inference. Here we show that a general form of the Gaussian Integral Trick makes it possible to transform a wide class of discrete variable undirected models into fully continuous systems. The continuous representation allows the use of gradient-based Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for inference, results in new ways of estimating normalization constants (partition functions), and in general opens up a number of new avenues for inference in difficult discrete systems. We demonstrate some of these continuous relaxation inference algorithms on a number of illustrative problems.

Links between probabilistic and non-probabilistic learning algorithms can arise by performing small-variance asymptotics, i.e., letting the variance of particular distributions in a graphical model go to zero. For instance, in the context of clustering, such an approach yields precise connections between the k-means and EM algorithms. In this paper, we explore small-variance asymptotics for exponential family Dirichlet process (DP) and hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) mixture models. Utilizing connections between exponential family distributions and Bregman divergences, we derive novel clustering algorithms from the asymptotic limit of the DP and HDP mixtures that feature the scalability of existing hard clustering methods as well as the flexibility of Bayesian nonparametric models. We focus on special cases of our analysis for discrete-data problems, including topic modeling, and we demonstrate the utility of our results by applying variants of our algorithms to problems arising in vision and document analysis.

The expected return is a widely used objective in decision making under uncertainty. Manyalgorithms, such as value iteration, have been proposed to optimize it. In risk-aware settings, however, the expected return is often not an appropriate objective to optimize. We propose a new optimization objective for risk-aware planning and show that it has desirable theoretical properties. We also draw connections topreviously proposed objectives for risk-aware planing: minmax, exponential utility,percentile and mean minus variance. Our method applies to an extended class of Markov decision processes: we allow costs to be stochastic as long as they are bounded. Additionally, we present an efficient algorithm for optimizing theproposed objective. Synthetic and real-world experiments illustrate the effectiveness of our method, at scale.

Accurate and detailed models of the progression of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's (AD) are crucially important for reliable early diagnosis and the determination and deployment of effective treatments. In this paper, we introduce the ALPACA (Alzheimer's disease Probabilistic Cascades) model, a generative model linking latent Alzheimer's progression dynamics to observable biomarker data. In contrast with previous works which model disease progression as a fixed ordering of events, we explicitly model the variability over such orderings among patients which is more realistic, particularly for highly detailed disease progression models. We describe efficient learning algorithms for ALPACA and discuss promising experimental results on a real cohort of Alzheimer's patients from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

In this paper, we consider Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) where actions incur costs in addition to rewards, and thus exploration has to be constrained in terms of the expected total cost while learning to maximize the expected long-term total reward. In order to formalize cost-sensitive exploration, we use the constrained Markov decision process (CMDP) as the model of the environment, in which we can naturally encode exploration requirements using the cost function. We extend BEETLE, a model-based BRL method, for learning in the environment with cost constraints. We demonstrate the cost-sensitive exploration behaviour in a number of simulated problems.

We propose a novel Bayesian approach to solve stochastic optimization problems that involve finding extrema of noisy, nonlinear functions. Previous work has focused on representing possible functions explicitly, which leads to a two-step procedure of first, doing inference over the function space and second, finding the extrema of these functions. Here we skip the representation step and directly model the distribution over extrema. To this end, we devise a non-parametric conjugate prior where the natural parameter corresponds to a given kernel function and the sufficient statistic is composed of the observed function values. The resulting posterior distribution directly captures the uncertainty over the maximum of the unknown function.

Probabilistic latent variable models are one of the cornerstones of machine learning. They offer a convenient and coherent way to specify prior distributions over unobserved structure in data, so that these unknown properties can be inferred via posterior inference. Such models are useful for exploratory analysis and visualization, for building density models of data, and for providing features that can be used for later discriminative tasks. A significant limitation of these models, however, is that draws from the prior are often highly redundant due to i.i.d. assumptions on internal parameters. For example, there is no preference in the prior of a mixture model to make components non-overlapping, or in topic model to ensure that co-ocurring words only appear in a small number of topics. In this work, we revisit these independence assumptions for probabilistic latent variable models, replacing the underlying i.i.d.\ prior with a determinantal point process (DPP). The DPP allows us to specify a preference for diversity in our latent variables using a positive definite kernel function. Using a kernel between probability distributions, we are able to define a DPP on probability measures. We show how to perform MAP inference with DPP priors in latent Dirichlet allocation and in mixture models, leading to better intuition for the latent variable representation and quantitatively improved unsupervised feature extraction, without compromising the generative aspects of the model.